Make the kingdom of Strathclyde the foundation of a third kingdom between Scotland and England

[cincpac overboard]

Strathclyde is one of those 'almost made it' nations that seemed to be on upward trajectory shortly before it was absorbed by Alba, the OTL predecessor to Scotland. Arising out of the sack of Dumbarton by the Norse kingdom of Dublin in 870, this last remnant of the British kingdoms of the 'Old North' actually expanded southwards from its base in the Clyde estuary to perhaps as far as Lancashire based on place-name evidence. It reached its maximum extent by around 1050, then disappears from the historical record due to the ruling lineage of Strathclyde going extinct shortly thereafter.

In the tumult of Viking Age Britain, it seems there should be at least a few candidate PODs that lead to Strathclyde gaining control of Britain between the Humber in the south and the Forth-Clyde line in the north. In the time frame from 870 to 1050, is there some conflict that could be tweaked to weaken the Danelaw and England enough that Strathclyde could annex the former without the latter being able to intervene?

 

[Andristan]

I think so.
I present the Battle of Corbridge, 918. OTL it is between Constantin of Alba and Ragnall of Viking Northumbria, over Ealred of Bamburgh keeping/re-acquiring his lands, inconclusive, maybe Ealred gets Bamburgh back, sources unclear. Ragnall a few years later takes York and then attends a conference with Aethelstan in 924. I propose we include Owain of Strathclyde into the mix and due to his participation, the battle turns into a decisive victory over the Vikings and Ragnall, he flees, and the Strathclyders pursue and annex the Isle of Mann killing Ragnall, gaining naval dominance over the Irish Sea now(maybe?). As part of his price for help, Ealred submits to his new neighbor Owain and now we have a Cumbria from coast to coast.

We could see Sitric establishing himself in York a few years earlier, helped by the lack of Gofraid, him having died at Corbridge.

In the south, Ed the Elder is consolidating his hold over Mercia after dispossessing his niece (aelfwynn) in 918, but now has to confront a rampaging Sitric who has gone south, like in OTL, due to the disaffection of Eastern Mercia over the succession. The last four of the Five Buroughs still standing, Viking cities in Eastern Mercia/Lindsey) throw in with Sitric instead of submitting to Ed.

So we come to 920 or so, Cumbria has its OTL territory plus Mann and kinda/sorta Bamburgh(uppity vassal) stretching from the Irish Sea to the North Sea, Alba has parts of Lothian and Dunbar to border Bamburgh, and Sitric holds most of Deira, plus Lindsey and parts of Eastern Mercia, and Wessex/England(its getting there) has most of what it OTL did. Ed holds his peace conference, maybe after fighting Sitric to a draw around Leicester but it is very much not an arena for submissions but meeting of equals. Sitric marries Aethelstan's sister a few years early, and borders are set as is, so Ed can continue to stomp on rebels, while Sitric consolidates his realm and the Northern Block do the same.
In 924, Aethelstan takes over and in 926 is unable to pony up the price tag for amounderness but his neighbor Owain steps up and purchases it from its owner and expands southwards. Next year, (927) Sitric dies in York and leaves his crown to his son, Olaf Cuaran, who has been reigning in Dublin, he comes over but is quickly evicted in lightning campaign by Aethelstan who then calls a conference at a crossing of the Ribble(boundary of Cumbria) in 928, to meet with the North to discuss his recent acquisition and submission to him, being stronger, Owain and Constantin resist, but Ealred decides to switch to the Saxon side, thus starting a war.

Owain and his ally Constantin, ally with Olaf Cuaran and make common cause to restore the Status quo before Sitric's death. Aethelstan and his brother lead the combined armies of Mercia and some of Wessex(due to not having enough time to quell the dissent over the disputed succession), they meet the combined allies of Owain, Olaf Cuaran, and Constantin on the field of battle near Newburgh-on-Tyne when the allies fall upon the English before they can link up with Ealred in Bernicia/Bamburgh. The battle is a close run fight, Olaf loses two cousins, Owain and Constantin both lose a son but Aethelstan and his brother are slain and the English retreat in disarray. Ealred is defeated in battle and Bamburg is besieged by Owain, while Olaf and Constantin take York for Olaf. Owain takes Bamburgh, installs a Cumbrian noble and the status quo is restored in the North. England is in a succession crisis, Mercia breaks away from Wessex, and the Welsh return to independence during the struggle.

We can speculate from there.

 

[ramones1986]

Wait a minute, Strathclyde in this scenario(s) were mixed ethnically (and perhaps lingustically), right?

 

[Andristan]

Most likely, we can see in the placename evidence, that in Strathclyde territory, Cumbrian names are laid over saxon and norse names, sometimes even over saxon/norse transliterations of cumbric names, presumably from the Northumbrian conquest.

 

[cincpac overboard]

I present the Battle of Corbridge, 918. OTL it is between Constantin of Alba and Ragnall of Viking Northumbria, over Ealred of Bamburgh keeping/re-acquiring his lands, inconclusive, maybe Ealred gets Bamburgh back, sources unclear. Ragnall a few years later takes York and then attends a conference with Aethelstan in 924. I propose we include Owain of Strathclyde into the mix and due to his participation, the battle turns into a decisive victory over the Vikings and Ragnall, he flees, and the Strathclyders pursue and annex the Isle of Mann killing Ragnall, gaining naval dominance over the Irish Sea now(maybe?). As part of his price for help, Ealred submits to his new neighbor Owain and now we have a Cumbria from coast to coast.

If Strathclyde/Cumbria achieves naval dominance of the Irish Sea, does this fatally weaken the Viking kingdom of Dublin, as the Cumbrians seek to throttle their trade? Perhaps the Northern Ui Neill take control of Dublin disrupting the slave trade from the city? If I recall Dublin was one of the largest slave markets in western Europe at the time.

 

[Andristan]

Probably not, in the medieval period, naval dominance meant something more like having the best battle fleet. The cumbrians dont seem to ever have been a mercantile focused group and the actual state capacity for something like "throttling trade" doesnt seem to have existed. Strathclyde could suppress piracy/replace with their own pirates, and have a deterrent for naval invasions. Merchants seem to be more independent of their state for the most part, flagged vessels were not really a thing, i think. Plus, the Northern British do not favor the Irish much over the Norse and like the Irish themselves, were as likely to ally the norse against their common foe, like in OTL Brunanburh. I would hazard a guess that they would not love a Ui Neill power forming nearby. There is mention in the sources, i believe the song of Gaels and Foreigners, that mentions Brian Boru or his successor sending raiding parties against the Scots and Britons, so no love lost between the Irish and the Britons. Strathclyde always had this unclear 3rd rank kingdom with England as 1st, and Scotland as 2nd, but could punch well above their weight class, defeating the Picts and the Scots fairly frequently.

 

[Andristan]

Seeing as in my scenario above, Owain is kinda sorta allied to Dublin, i would say that the two would cooperate to keep out other interlopers, like the marauding fleets from Norway or Orkney

 

[Count of Crisco]

I actually wrote a TLIAW or something years ago which had Strathclyde allying with England against the Scots and Norse out of self preservation, the kingdom maintains its own independence afterwards as a buffer between England and Scotland over the next several centuries. Iirc the kingdom signs a formal alliance with William the conqueror in 1066/67 which goes on to be the longest continually extant treaty in the world. It resists incorporation with England, and Scotland under the acts of Union and preserves its own monarchy separate from the British one, though with some intermarriage.

Basically I had the kingdom survive long enough for England to no longer feel the need to incorporate it, and the kingdom has tied its foreign policy and military close enough to that of England/UK that it wouldnt change much anyways.

 

[cincpac overboard]

Does anyone have an educated guess as to how languages develop and spread in the above scenario? Is Gaelic likely to remain the primary tongue of Alba/Scotland? Was Norse widely spoken in Viking Northumbria or was it a distant second to English? Is Cumbric essentially the same as Welsh or had it diverged significantly by the 10th century?

Seeing as in my scenario above, Owain is kinda sorta allied to Dublin, i would say that the two would cooperate to keep out other interlopers, like the marauding fleets from Norway or Orkney

What was the state of Viking raiding in Britain over the course of the 10th century? If a Dublin-Strathclyde alliance blocks Norway and Orkney, what softer targets are there for them to hit instead (not necessarily in the British Isles)?

 

[Analytical Engine]

Does anyone have an educated guess as to how languages develop and spread in the above scenario? Is Gaelic likely to remain the primary tongue of Alba/Scotland?

Probably. Considering Alba wouldn't contain either Cumbric or Old North English speaking territories

Gaelic didn't disappear from Ireland whilst the Vikings were hanging around

Was Norse widely spoken in Viking Northumbria or was it a distant second to English?

Don't know, I'm afraid. Old Norse would be spoken by the Vikings, Old English by the English, and probably some kind of simplified trade speech when dealing between the two. Don't forget, the languages wouldn't have diverged from one another as much by this point compared to now

There was certainly enough influence on Old English to cause several Old English words to fall out of use, replaced by Old Norse terms, and for many Old Norse words to become adopted. There's a theory that the reason English lost many of its grammatical features isn't because of French influence, but because of an English-Norse creolisation

Is Cumbric essentially the same as Welsh or had it diverged significantly by the 10th century?

Both Old Cornish and Old Welsh are considered to have existed between 800AD and 1200 AD

Cornish language - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Old Welsh - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I presume Cumbric had already become divergent from Western Brythonic at around that time

As to how mutually intelligible the languages would have been at the time, IDK

 

[Andristan]

What was the state of Viking raiding in Britain over the course of the 10th century?

Well the vikings would continue raiding and attacking mann, Ireland, Scotland and England for another 300 years at this point, king magnus comes over and unites sodor and mann to Norway. Those islands were conquered by the scots in the 1200s from the local norse warlords.

 

[Andristan]

softer targets are there for them to hit instead

Well, they could go to Normandy, Rouen was big pirate/viking port, or join the vikings in York or caithness, or go raid the continent, settle elsewhere in Ireland. The 900s were the last hurrah of the independent viking warlords, by the 11th cent, the kings of scandinavia are organizing the raids to turn them into conquests, like Sveyn forkbeard, Olaf Tryggvasson, and Canute.

 

[Tyler96]

Yeah, definitely think @Andristan has the right idea.

For me, Strathclyde as a 'Middle Kingdom' would have to stretch from coast to coast? I feel like being a solid bloc across the Middle of Britain would help them strategically in facing off against their neighbours to north and south.

Do we think they have any possibility/ability to incorporate the Bamburgh-based Eadwulfing polity (sometimes called the 'Kingdom of the North English (or Saxons)' in the east?
They obviously managed to incorporate a lot of Northumbrian territory in the West IOTL, but there is the sense that was a more peripheral area of the kingdom.

I feel like if they were able to get ahold of the entire southern coast of the Forth, with a sufficient hinterland behind it, then that might help blunt southward-facing Scottish ambitions. And if you knock out the Eadwulfings then I feel like its less likely more powerful English rulers from further south will get involved - they have Brittonic neighbours closer to home to have fun with, after all.

A longer lasting Danish York would also obviously block off any northern expansion from an *English polity based in Wessex (or Mercia).

 

[cincpac overboard]

A longer lasting Danish York would also obviously block off any northern expansion from an *English polity based in Wessex (or Mercia).

Was Danish York a Christian entity? I think Aethelstan of Wessex was fostering Haakon the Good of Norway, an important figure in the Christianization of Norway. If Aethelstan dies early perhaps Haakon never makes it back to Norway, depriving the growing Christian population of royal favor. This might then spur Christian emigration to York if a traditionalist backlash results in persecution.

 

[Tyler96]

Was Danish York a Christian entity? I think Aethelstan of Wessex was fostering Haakon the Good of Norway, an important figure in the Christianization of Norway. If Aethelstan dies early perhaps Haakon never makes it back to Norway, depriving the growing Christian population of royal favor. This might then spur Christian emigration to York if a traditionalist backlash results in persecution.

To an extent - Guthred was supposedly exalted to the throne by an abbot who received a vision from St Cuthbert, and was buried in York Minster. His shadowy successors Siefred(us) and Cnut are known only from coinage, but these shows some Christian influence. From c. 905 to the advent of Ragnall in c. 919 the predominant coinage in the city was the religious St Peters, suggesting either that the rulers in the city were cool with Christianity or too weak to influence a coinage issued primarily by the church (though note the political allegiance of the city is very obscure post-Tettenhall - possibly Eadwulfing Bamburgh exercised some control).

Ui Imar coming across from Ireland tended to be pagan, however - and tended to convert as part of diplomatic maneuverings with Wessex (e.g. Sihtric Caech in 926; Olaf Cuaran and Ragnall II in the 940s). Possibly hamstringing Wessex with a defeat at alt!Brunanburh means there's less pressure on them to convert, but this may still come about organically as part of some sort of quid pro quo with the church - Archbishop Wulfstan was very involved in the complex politicking of Northumbria in the 940s and 950s IOTL, some possibly he can bring some influence to bear.

It is also possible there might be some pressure from below from the Danish settler population on Ui Imar kings to convert or at least reach an accommodation with Christianity - the 'people of York' had supposedly sought out Ethelflaed's lordship in 918 in preference to the pagan Ragnall, though this went nowhere with her death. The elite of Viking York/Northumbria certainly had no compunctions about getting rid of kings they disliked - hence the chaos of the 940s and 950s - so possibly you see Ui Imar convert in an attempt to pacify them even if there's no pressure from Wessex.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

Could more Celtic languages survive in the British Isles linguistically? Given how Cumbria was actually quite Celtic, if Strathclyde survives longer, it could be more likely for Celtic languages to be more widespread in Britain.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Could more Celtic languages survive in the British Isles linguistically? Given how Cumbria was actually quite Celtic, if Strathclyde survives longer, it could be more likely for Celtic languages to be more widespread in Britain.

Welsh had a presence in Shropshire as late as the 1880s, so I don't see why not

Welsh language - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[cincpac overboard]

the predominant coinage in the city was the religious St Peters, suggesting either that the rulers in the city were cool with Christianity or too weak to influence a coinage issued primarily by the church

In Viking age Britain was most coinage issued by the Church? Did any 'royal' mints exist at the time and what was the most common metal used for coins? Who was using these coins and for what purpose?

 

[Analytical Engine]

In Viking age Britain was most coinage issued by the Church? Did any 'royal' mints exist at the time and what was the most common metal used for coins? Who was using these coins and for what purpose?

Generally, people would be granted special permission to mint coins by their rulers - there weren't really centralised mints at the time. Archaeologists have found the dyes used to mint them. I visited the Jorvik Viking Centre as a boy, and I got to strike a coin (with help from a member of the museum's staff)

Here's an example from the Centre's youtube channel:

Viking coins would be made from a specified weight of silver. They would often be cut into pieces as needed

 

[Tyler96]

In Viking age Britain was most coinage issued by the Church? Did any 'royal' mints exist at the time and what was the most common metal used for coins? Who was using these coins and for what purpose?

@Analytical Engine has already answered in part, but regarding royal control - most coins were minted by moneyers in the King's name (as in, literally, the name of the king was on the coin).

Danelaw is a bit different in that there are 'anonymous' coinages without a ruler named on them - St Peters at York, St Edmunds in East Anglia (and some of the Midlands), St Martins at Lincoln.

Conversely, some Danelaw rulers did have coins minted in their own name - Siefred, Cnut, and 'Airdeconut' in Northumbria around the turn of the century, Guthrum (under his baptismal name of Athelstan) in East Anglia (c. 880-890), Ragnall (c.919-921) and some of the later Ui Imar (c. 940s and 950s) in York. Some rulers had coins minted in their name in some areas and anonymous religious issues or none at all in others - Sihtric Caech may have minted in his name south of the Humber, whilst St Peters continued north of it; the only known coins for Guthred are Southumbrian (though this is sometimes argued to be a different guy).

There's a number of different interpretations around this - that it reflects Viking rulers speedily coming to some accommodation with Christianity, that Viking rulers had only an insecure hold on the administrative functions of the state and that the Church still held a lot of power (in York, at least - the East Anglian church was pretty definitively knocked out) etc.