UNFLAPPABLE
What if Stanley Baldwin led the Conservatives to a majority in 1929?
1924: Stanley Baldwin (Conservative)
1929: Stanley Baldwin (Conservative) [1]
1931: Stanley Baldwin (Conservative-Liberal coalition) [2]
1935 (Feb): Stanley Baldwin (Conservative minority)
1935: (Oct): Tom Johnston (Labour) [3]
1939: Tom Johnston (Labour) [4]
1940: Tom Johnston (Labour led National Wartime Government)
1944: Tom Johnston (Labour led National Wartime Government) [5]
1945: Walter Citrine (Labour)
1948: Walter Citrine (Labour) [6]
1952: Harold Macmillan (Conservative) [7]
1956: Harold Macmillan (Conservative) [8]
1960: Harold Macmillan (Conservative) [9]
1965: Nicholas Mosley (Labour-Liberal coalition) [10]
1970: Nicholas Mosley (Labour-Liberal coalition) [11]
1975: Ralph Harris (Conservative) [12]
1979: Ralph Harris (Conservative) [13]
1983: Ralph Harris (Conservative) [14]
1987: Thomas Edward Graham (Labour) [15]
1992: Thomas Edward Graham (Labour) [16]
1995: Paul Boateng (Labour)
1996: Paul Boateng (Labour) [17]
2001: Paul Boateng (Labour) [18]
2006: Paul Boateng (Labour)
2007: Ruth Kelly (Labour) [19]
2011: Ruth Kelly (Labour) [20]
2016: Ruth Kelly (Labour-Liberal coalition) [21]
2018: Andrea Leadsom (Conservative minority) [22]
2020: Julia Gillard (Labour-Lucht Oibre-Green coalition) [23]
[1] The Conservatives were reduced to 330 seats in 1929 - their majority at the previous election in 1924 being sufficiently large to secure a second term. The election was a disappointment for the Labour Party which sat at 220 seats in the new Commons (a gain of 69), which put them far ahead of the Liberals in third place on 65 seats. Ramsay MacDonald sought to remain Labour leader in spite of questions regarding his electability, and Baldwin looked forward to his second term.
[2] The Conservative victory was a poisoned chalice, as the global economy entered into the meltdown of the Great Depression just months later. The government was slow to respond to the crisis; Sir Arthur Steel-Maitland, as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, was tasked with a unified industrial policy and a remit to reduce unemployment, but labour relations continued to worsen. Neville Chamberlain struggled to alleviate the crisis on the Exchequer, while Churchill (reassigned as Secretary of State for India) undermined the leadership with his bellicose statements against Home Rule. MacDonald stood down from the leadership in 1930, and having dispatched George Lansbury in the first round Tom Johnston defeated Philip Snowden, encouraging the filibustering of Conservatives cuts against welfare and an end to the system of pairing in the Commons. Despite the government majority Baldwin dissolved Parliament after the 1931 General Strike, hoping to portray Labour as radical and the Liberals as a spent force. Ultimately, however, the Conservatives could not command a majority, and were forced to form a coalition with the Liberals of David Lloyd George (who relished in his position as kingmaker).
[3] A united front the coalition certainly did not present. One party raised possible solutions or proposed policies for the other party to reject. Baldwin had only to whisper the word Protectionism and Lloyd George would yell Free Trade. While Baldwin attempted a pragmatic line on rearmament, Lloyd George was consistently pro-German. He supported German demands for territorial concessions and recognition of their "great power" status even when Baldwin refused to meet with the new Führer. By 1935 the breaking point was reached, with Lloyd George launching his "New Deal" policy (basically his renamed 1929 Kenysian platform), the Conservatives responded by rejecting the support of the Liberals, leading a minority government for a few months before finally calling the long-awaited election. Labor only occupied a small rise in support with a number of voters confused by its ambitious program, in particular its Comprehensive All-In Social Insurance Scheme, which both members of the old coalition attacked as "socialist", but the margin was so narrow and the feeling that the coalition had done so little to address the country's systemic problems that Johnston easily managed to claim victory.
[4] The Labour government was to the shock of the Conservative Party, a success. Johnston appointed Clement Attlee Foreign Secretary, Herbert Morrison Chancellor of the Exchequer and Hugh Dalton Home Secretary. Popular policies including the introduction of the NHS, and the national motorway system which included King George V bridge connecting the Isle of Wight to the mainland which became a national icon for decades to come. Labours policies gave poor people guaranteed healthcare and gave the unemployed work. At the election of 1939, Labour won a landslide majority with the Conservatives under the leadership of Neville Chamberlain suffering from a weak manifesto and Labour advertising blaming them for the Depression. Johnston was satisfied but events in Germany were about to change his ministry's course.
[5] When war broke out in late 1939 over Germany’s invasion of Czechoslovakia, nobody was particularly surprised. Calls came for a Unified National government, but it while it was mostly unified it wasn’t national. Johnston with his strong majority rejected the support of the Liberals with whom he blamed early appeasement and the Tories split with Churchill leading a sizable minority of “Constitutional Conservatives” to serve in the War Ministry. Despite the early success of the German Blitzkrieg, by 1942 with the entry of the USSR and USA into the war, the ending was clear. There were some calls for elections to be postponed until the conclusion of the war, but with Conservatives claiming that Labour was acting in a dictatorial manner and Labour polling suggesting that they would easily win, they followed the lead of the United States and ran the election on schedule. Despite Labour easily winning the popular vote, the seat count was much closer on the back of a vastly reduced turnout (mainly based on the difficulty of receiving soldier’s votes) and to the surprise of many Labour just retained a majority, while the breakaway Constitutional Conservatives overtook the Liberals to become the third-largest party.
[6] The war concluded, Johnston, visibly aged from his decade in power and leading Britain through some of its biggest crises, announced that he would be retiring on his 64th birthday, arguing that the UK needed a younger, fresher face to lead it to the postwar future. To the surprise of some (but not those with inside knowledge) that fresh face was Walter Citrine, former union leader, Minister of State, Minister for Wartime Production and Chairman of numerous influential committees. Citrine's rise marked the formal end of the National War-Time Government, with the Constitutional Conservatives refusing to support the peacetime policy of Home Rule for the colonies (based largely on Johnston's successful Scottish and N. Irish models). Citrine led a government as strong in anti-communism as it was in nationalization, forming a close bond with Truman in postwar diplomacy. With a slim majority, Citrine led the country into a snap election and, despite several polls suggesting a Conservative victory, Citrine made extensive use of his influence within the media that led to a still limited but more viable majority, which gave his friend Truman a lot of confidence when he repeated a similar feat later that year.
[7] Citrine is remembered by historians for his pre-war and post-war work, but his premiership is often forgotten due to how brief it was. It is arguable he could have lasted longer had his plan to call a snap election just 5 months after the death of George VI and the ascension of Elizabeth II bore fruit and handed him a majority. Citrine was accused of opportunism by the right-wing press and by Conservative leader Harold Macmillan who led a tireless campaign for a 'home fit for the heroes of the war'. At the election, the Conservatives won a majority of 40 seats and Citrine resigned as Labour leader and moved onto the Lords. The Constitutional Conservatives made a moderate loss of 10 seats at this election which is often thought to be the result of Winston Churchill - now Duke of London in recognition of his work in the War ministry - retiring from the commons and their new leader Anthony Eden not making as good of an impression, this led to discussions regarding forming an electoral pact with the Liberal party. Macmillan takes over during a relatively peaceful period with allies in President Adlai Stevenson (who won only due to the election being thrown to the Democratic majority House of Representatives), and the First Ministers of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
[8] Macmillan presided over the Conservative Party in ascendancy; with the failure of the Churchillite rump to reach an electoral alliance with the Liberals they were decimated in the 1956 election - only Eden hung on in Warwick and Leamington, and only by a mere 600 votes amid a three-way contest with the official Conservative and Labour. Reforming his party into a forward-facing and entrepreneurial entity determined to force Britain onto a new path, Macmillan was a popular Prime Minister for the developing modern age. Britain completed her nuclear programme, continued her policies of 'reinforced decolonization' (securing independence for colonial states but only with substantial concessions to British military and industrial interests) and minor reforms to the social state - Macmillan was fond of saying that Britain had 'never had it better'.
[9] With Macmillan popular, his party was able to win a third term in what was generally regarded as Macmillan's last electoral campaign. As Britain progressed, Macmillan earned the name "Supermac" by the public - they were fond of him for his wit and unflappability. Over in America, a young senator from Massachusetts, John Fitzgerald Kennedy (JFK) was elected President, ending the dominance of old establishment politicians (for the time being).
[10] By the mid-1960's many were starting to see Macmillan's approach as anachronistic with the media portraying him as a doddering leader in comparison to the young American President. However, despite increasing pressure on him to step down he was determined to lead the Conservatives, pointing to his economic policies and successful treaties with both the West Indian and Indian Federations. After the death's of Labour leaders, Bevan and Gaitskill in quick succession, Labour turned to 'Britain's JFK' in Nicholas Mosley. Sharing a number of traits (both were authors, war heroes and had father's who had leadership ambitions of their own and flirted with the fringes of politics), Mosley lacked Kennedy's natural charisma (suffering from a slight stutter) and narrowly missed out on a majority, turning to Megan Lloyd George's Liberals to get Labour over the line in return for Welsh Home Rule which would be enacted shortly after her death.
[11] Mosley found governing alongside the Liberals relatively easy even striking a friendship with Lloyd-George's successor Jo Grimond, made easier by the enactment of Liberal policies such as EEC membership and an increase in education spending. One year into his premiership, his Aunt Baroness Ravendale died and it was expected that Mosley would resign and move onto the Lords, however, Mosley enjoyed his work and instead called a referendum on the Lord's future which was enthusiastically backed by the Labour left and by the Liberals. The referendum won by a 55/45 margin which is believed to be far more the result of a weak counter-campaign led by the aristocratic Lord Hailsham who was now leading the Conservatives following Macmillian's resignation, than Mosley's own work. The Lords were replaced by an elected Lord Senate to be elected in the same year as parliamentary elections. In 1970, Mosley once more came close to a majority in both the Commons and Senate and chose to reform his coalition with the Liberal party.
[12] The establishment of the Senate was popular with the country's left, the Lords losing all legitimacy in their eyes with the elevation of Churchill (Deputy Prime Minister and leader of a minor coalition partner) to a Duchy, while numerous Labour Ministers were passed over. It gave an impetus to the Conservative elements to demonstrate more fervently against the Labor-Liberal alliance (the alliance encountered almost equal, but quieter, opposition from the trade union left due to its reduced influence). In fact, the coalition projected a model of modernization akin to the European technocratic governments of the time with MiniTech (Ministry of Technology) and MiniGov (Ministry of Government Reform) promising to turn Britain into something akin to Japan's high-tech visions. Most polls predicted another close but comfortable Labor victory (or at least Lab-Lib), yet Mosley was perhaps overly interested in shaping policies with a manifesto that reflected his own poetic and philosophical prose, obscuring the vision of Labor in an obtuse package. When Election Day rolled around, Ralph Harris's Conservatives (Hailsham had been sent to the Senate) claimed victory. Harris (having first been elected at the 1952 Conservatives height) was a prominent proponent of liberal free-market economics within the Party, however, with a public accustomed to the comforts of the Welfare State, how far could he take it?
[13] Harris quickly left his mark on Britain; the government quickly came into conflict with the remaining nationalized industries while the capping of ministerial spending also sought to indicate the opening up of social programmes to private investment. The 1978 decision to break up both British Coal and British Railways led to a restored alliance between the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the National Union of Railwaymen (NUR), and several months of disruptive picket action and violence across the country. By 1979 the government was struggling in the opinion polls. However, the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in February 1979 changed everything. Having crushed the Greeks, the shelling of the UK base at Dhekelia brought the Turks into direct conflict with Britain. Despite international condemnation of Ankara and strong calls for a diplomatic solution, Harris ordered an extensive strike upon the Anatolian mainland and reinforced the Greeks in their continuing struggle in the Aegean (a complicated issue, given all three protagonists were members of NATO). Cyprus was a warzone until the Valetta Accords ended the conflict, reaffirming British control over her bases and restoring the Cypriot Republic (but only south of the Famagusta-Kalograia line). Victory in the Mediterranean pushed Harris back in front of Labour (which had only reluctantly supported the war), and following his further success in securing a UK rebate from the EEC budget Harris stormed to victory in the December election.
[14] While Harris had wasted no time in reforming Britain, the central tenants of Harrisism (as it somewhat awkwardly became known), only really got established once the Conservatives secured their strong majority. Internationally, it led to a clash with the Reaganomics of America, named after the former unionist, actor and Democratic President, although both remained united against the Communist bulwark. Domestically, it instigated further societal as well as economic changes, most publicly with the establishment of MiniSoc (Ministry of Social Affairs) led by Joseph Keith designed to move a public “rather too keen on social engineering to the benefits of personal responsibility”. With rising unemployment, and a polarising platform; including the reintroduction of some appointed members of the Senate (mostly from the former Lords) and controversial taxation changes, a snap election was called. Despite swings away from the Conservatives, Labour was unable to capitalise with a manifesto long on history, but short on vision. Harris summed up his victory as “If you voted Tory at least you knew what you were getting,” a statement that would be etched in the public’s minds for years to come.
[15] The return of appointed members to the upper house was a blessing in disguise for Labour as it was from there they sourced their next Prime Minister. Graham - having served as Environmental Secretary in the two Mosley ministries and as Mp for Enfield West until the 1979 election - managed to win a moderately sized majority of 50 seats thus avoiding coalition with David Steel's Liberal party. Harris had expected to win the election however, there were numerous factors preventing this from occurring including concerns regarding his health. Harris had been a committed pipe smoker for years, but his addiction had steadily worsened from the stress of the premiership. There was also his failure to secure the Falkland Islands for Britain after an invasion from Argentina in 1985, which deeply bruised national pride. Additionally, their 1987 election manifesto was disastrous, promising to leave the EEC within a year, further cuts to public expenidture and measures banning the discussion of homosexuality which were opposed by Socially Liberals from across the political spectrum as cold-hearted as the AIDS crisis wore on, but none more ferociously than Graham himself who made speeches against the pledge across the nation. Graham promises to move the country to a social market economy beginning with the creation of British Rail plc and BT plc, as well as tackling the issue of climate change through infrastructure programmes with a Channel Tunnel and a new hub airport for London on the Thames estuary amongst the suggested projects. In America, the Republican party is finally successful as George Bush takes office as President helped by the reform of the American electoral system to proportional representation.
[16] The Graham government presented itself as a contrast to both the Harris society change government and Mosley's technocratic approach in what was called a "cooperative humanist" cabinet. By establishing a Sovereign Wealth Fund on the basis of the North Sea oil discoveries, the government granted the first significant devolution of power to Scotland since the initial Home Rule. While Conservatives also took credit for their success, many of the investments in the technology sector first made in the early 1970s eventually began to pay off with a series of public-private companies capable of propping-up losses in the postal and transportation services industries. Graham also invested heavily in ecology and set some of the world's first carbon-neutral targets. The environment and the economy were to be the key electoral issues, although the Labour Party had injected some drama into the campaign with its announcement that it was putting the recognition of "registered partners" on an equal footing with marriages. However, it was the collapse of the USSR in late 1991 that cemented Labour reëlection with the diplomatic approach of the Conservatives suddenly deemed obsolete.
[17] Ted (as he became known familiarly) continued to be quietly forgettable during his premiership despite overseeing increasingly radical changes to the country. His government had a number of successes, most notably the strong economy, which led to Labour being called the true party of fiscal responsibility. However, it also experienced failures, including a perceived mishandling of Russia’s democratization, with many feeling that Graham assumed it would join the Social Democratic block of Scandinavia and Britain without any effort. Many called on Graham to lead Labour into a third campaign and equal the record of legendary leader Johnston (or even better, best Tories Macmillian or Harris) but Graham decided to step down on his 70th birthday and return to semi-retirement in the Senate. He was replaced by Treasurer Paul Boateng, son of a former First Secretary of the Gold Coast, who quickly called an election to secure a mandate in his own right. Boateng fought the campaign largely on the back of Labour’s successes but took a tougher line of law and order than Graham, which was one of the final tools in the Tory arsenal. The result was almost a status-quo of the previous vote, leading Labour to press ahead for further changes while the Conservatives looked for a way back to power.
[18] Boateng made history as the first Black prime minister. His cheery attitude and his soft-left approach to governing left him popular with both the moderates and left-wing of his party, as well as with the country at large. He appointed John Smith ( who narrowly survived a heart attack in 1994)as home secretary putting him in charge of Boateng's law and order reforms. Boateng also oversaw the completion of Graham's infrastructure projects with the opening of London Metropolitan station as well as the final stages of the British high-speed rail network including the Channel Tunnel on New years eve 1999 an event attended by the Prime minister, the Queen and by South African President Nelson Mandela with whom Boateng worked closely to secure lasting peace on the African Continent. The 2001 election saw a fourth consecutive victory for Labour albeit with a reduced majority in both the commons and the Senate (which had returned to being fully elected from this electoral cycle). The Conservatives, are furious with the results and Harrisite Senator Margaret Thatcher is forced from the leadership. Abroad, Russia after a 5 year period of negotiation, joins the EEC and the United States finally introduces universal healthcare under President Ann Richards.
[19] Boateng was still popular with the public, more so than Conservative leader Michael Ancram. In the 2006 Election Labour gained six seats, which was an impressive result for a party in power nearly two decades, but it was clear Boateng's reign was over. Early next year, Boateng would step aside for his Home Secretary, Ruth Kelly, who became Britain's first female head of government.
[20] Kelly would prove to be a controversial heiress to Boateng, with many thinking she had been parachuted into the role to secure another prime ministerial first over more senior and experienced colleagues. Furthermore, her staunchly Catholic beliefs and social positions clashed with the majority of the cabinet. Yet she had proven to be one of the most loyal to the Labour Party machine and did what many suspected was her leading role, presenting a fresh, young face to a longstanding government. With few social reforms left for Labour to realistically pursue (and Kelly reluctant to go ahead), they focused on "Providing for the country" with a new round of infrastructure and transportation projects, though there would be growing complaints. that it was centred in London with expansion to Heathrow and Crossrail projects. However, it would be international events that would take priority after terrorist attacks on the Moscow and Petrograd metro systems by an Afghanistan-backed mujahideen. Kelly supported the first EEC and NATO operations involving former Soviet Union countries despite US reservations. Once again, the Conservative response was disjointed, having entered (another) period of infighting after Ancram's resignation (apparently for health reasons). Labour won a historic sixth term as the swing against it went mainly to the minor parties.
[21] All good things must come to an end as the 2016 election produced a hung parliament. Immediately, there were calls for Kelly's head especially from an increasingly frustrated left-wing with whom Kelly enjoyed a more disjointed relationship than they had with Boateng. Kelly managed to negotiate a coalition agreement with Jo Swinson's Liberal party which committed the government to a referendum on the introduction of STV voting for the Commons as well as Regional list voting for the Senate in line with the USA model, the government were also to commit to creating devolved regional assemblies for the English regions including Cornwall. The third commitment was radical but Kelly had little choice if she wanted to maintain her job - the introduction of Universal basic income by 2022. The Conservative party were led by Nigel Farage at this election and focussed primarily on Britains relationship with the EEC, an issue that few voters prioritised but appeared to personally infuriate Farage. Regardless, the Conservatives sit on 270 seats in the new Commons and could easily form a government if the coalition were to collapse. In the United States, Bernie Sanders would emerge victorious as President and major reforms would occur in the EEC as European Commission President (and former Labour MP) Tony Blair looked set to create a second house of Parliament - a Senate as well as move towards direct elections for his own post. Kelly's position is under constant threat from a leadership challenge from her left, but she still smiles for the camera as she watches the latest infrastructure projects reach completion including Lloyd George International Airport which replaced Manchester Airport in the North-West of England, and the Crossrail project which now encompasses 8 routes, 3 of which serve Metropolitan station.
[22] After two years of an incredibly tense coalition, Kelly called an election in a bid to get a majority. It failed spectacularly. The Liberals made incredible gains and the Conservatives, under Andrea Leadsom, managed to get a small minority.
[23] On the surface, Leadsom ran a quietly centrist government, but perhaps that was the cause of her downfall. Over the preceding 30 years, the Liberals had soaked up a large proportion of moderate Conservative support (and seats to a lesser extent) leaving a Party that for the most part was now run firmly by the right. She tried in vain to form a coalition on a number of occasions with the Liberals, but was unable to reach a deal, with a number of cabinet ministers going as far to say it was the Conservetive-Liberal coalition of the 1930’s which had led to this whole mess. Despite the Government’s limited successes (although it did have some; simplifying the tax code, making it easier for trust schools to be established, returning some freedom of speech rights to religious organisations), it was only a matter of time before it would lose a vote of no-confidence (prompted by a debate over passport controls after an outbreak of SARS within British Hong Kong). The next election wasn’t conclusive either with many feeling the mighty Labour Party machine was merely going through the motions. The fact that Labour even got back into power at all was down to new leader Julia Gillard, who was a model Labour figure, her family almost forced to immigrate if not for both the strong NHS and mini-tech boom of the 1970’s and 1980’s. Gillard had cut her teeth in the multi--party role of Welsh First Minister, and would use those skills to cobble together a new coalition. While facing accusations of turning Britain into a one-party state, who could argue against a Party that had led the U.K. out of the Great Depression, through WWII and successfully managed both a strong Welfare State and the economy? Baldwin would be spinning in his grave, but Tom Johnston would surely be proud.
I think we have reached the end of the road with this one, although if we wanted to continue it to reach a full century we probably could!
