Let Me Tell You about My Be-eeeesssst Friend! A Byzantine-Sasanian Re-approachment - 602 AD

A small nitpick: Conclave was not a thing at the time. IIRC the Pope was chosen (out of general consensus and not voted) by the totality of the Roman clergy and then presented to the populus (meaning the heads of the great families) for approval. Maybe there is a specific reason for TTL to have a conclave some 600 years ahead of schedule, but that is kind of weird.

Thanks for the heads-up. I didn't knew when the conclave only started so long after this point. However, there would be a different process for selecting a new Pope here as the Roman Gentry would not be choosing much of anything as they were split between being Lombard subjects in Rome, being killed by Lombards or in probable impoverished exile in Byzantium.

I imagine that the remnants of the church would spend a lot of time figuring out how to select a new Pope. They would spend an equal amount of time demanding that Emperor Theodosius "do something" to reclaim Rome. This would probably be another good reason for Theodosius to spend most of his time on the Danube.
 
Religious authorities be like right now:

"Should we do something?"

"We should do something!"

"Should we do something?"

"We should do something!"

"Should we do something?"

"We should do something!"
 
Thanks for the heads-up. I didn't knew when the conclave only started so long after this point. However, there would be a different process for selecting a new Pope here as the Roman Gentry would not be choosing much of anything as they were split between being Lombard subjects in Rome, being killed by Lombards or in probable impoverished exile in Byzantium.

I imagine that the remnants of the church would spend a lot of time figuring out how to select a new Pope. They would spend an equal amount of time demanding that Emperor Theodosius "do something" to reclaim Rome. This would probably be another good reason for Theodosius to spend most of his time on the Danube.
You're welcome. Yes, the situation is pretty much exceptional. If you are looking for inspiration, you may want to have a look at the papal election of 1268-1271. Yes, you are reading that right. It took that long. To find an agreement between 20 Cardinals. Featuring: a selected non-cardinal Pope running away, the good people of Viterbo (the city where the election was being held) closing up the Cardinals in a room to make them take a decision, and subsequently giving them less and less food in order to make the decision faster. They even took off the roof of the room. As a big fan of you, I can't wait to see what you can come up with. Hope this helps.
 
Lack of a Pope for any length of times will make thigns interesting in England, where they were just starting to accept conforming to Roman authority, and even if the higher ups accepte4d it, the lower ranking members wouldn't have totally yet

Also, whie the Latin had become the only "proper" language to use in the Church (and in ther printing of Bibles, from what I've heard, there are probably still a remainder of people in Western Europe willing to have services in their native tongues if Rome is seen as not nearly able to control them. Or, at the very least, a minority will develop like the Lollards of later centuries.

Edit: Okay, looking at a list of popes I see that there wans't one anyway for a year OTL - most of 606. However, given the insanity in Rome, there was doubtfully was TTL as far as a delay. If Boniface III delays much longer, he dies by November of 607 so if his Wikipedia article is true, that he delayed becasue he wanted free and fair elections, and this is even harder TTL, And, you ight then have the idea of the Pope being head of all Catholics butterflied away. (Bishop Mellitus is also good to look at for English stuff - interestingly, Patrick was already a missionary so he got converted a couple centuries earlier, and there was already Christianity somewhere int he British Isles. What a tangled web.)
 
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You're welcome. Yes, the situation is pretty much exceptional. If you are looking for inspiration, you may want to have a look at the papal election of 1268-1271. Yes, you are reading that right. It took that long. To find an agreement between 20 Cardinals. Featuring: a selected non-cardinal Pope running away, the good people of Viterbo (the city where the election was being held) closing up the Cardinals in a room to make them take a decision, and subsequently giving them less and less food in order to make the decision faster. They even took off the roof of the room. As a big fan of you, I can't wait to see what you can come up with. Hope this helps.

Thanks for the support and I appreciate you following.

I'm not a Catholic so I'm more than a little vague on Vatican procedures but I think that not only selecting a new Pope but selecting a new process for selecting a new Pope under these circumstances may prove problematic.

I think you may have given me an idea about how to deal with the religion question in this era of Christianity when you mentioned the Roman Clergy and Roman Nobility effectively selecting the Pope at this point.

I wonder how the exiled Roman clergy and gentry hanging out in Byzantium would feel of 2 things happened:

1. The local Byzantine clergy deciding to pick their own Pope.
2. The Roman Clergy and Nobles remaining in Rome under the Lombard (Arian) King picking their own Pope (with the King's "Permission")
 
Chapter 9: Error of Judgement
609

Northern Egypt

For the past several months, Organa, leader of the Bulgarian tribesmen who travelled south at the bidding of the Byzantine Emperor, would lead his 150,000 Bulgarian people (and another 8000 or so Syrians or Ghassanids) west through the deserts, crossing from Asia into Africa.

During this time, virtually the entirety of his tribe had converted to the Miaphysite Church, hearing many sermons (heavily translated) lambasting the Byzantines for their view of God's two natures being somehow different than the Miaphysite's view of God's two natures.

In truth, it all seemed the same to him but Organa did not tell that to the Miaphysites clergy and his Syrian friends. What DID matter to Organa was the tales of fertile lands, huge populations and great riches of Egypt. Learning that 30,000 Greek Catholics ruled over a land of 5 million Coptic Miaphysites....well, that was interesting wasn't it.

Organa arrived in Egypt to find the nation wracked in rebellion. The Greeks, Jews and whatever other minorities present in the land were being suppressed, humiliated and often slaughtered. A handful of fortresses remained in Byzantine hands but were already feeling the strain of waiting for the Emperor's forces to arrive.

Only a week prior to the Bulgarians reaching Alexandria, 15,000 Byzantine troops made their belated arrival. The Byzantines would fight one quick, bitter engagement with the Coptic rebels before belatedly realizing the true threat. In the plains outside the city, the Byzantine Empire Army was routed utterly and completely, the survivors fleeing for their ships.

Organa simply let them go. He then dispatched messengers to the few remaining Greek or Byzantine loyalist holdouts and informed them that they had three choices:

They may join their cousins on their ships without further incident.
They may put down their arms and return in freedom to their homes (including the Greek Catholics).
They may try to hold out longer and be slaughtered.

Unsurprisingly, most choose options 1 or 2. Those few remaining held out a bit longer but soon saw the writing on the wall and would later receive the same generous terms from Organa.

Having crushed the Byzantines....and seen the riches of the northern Nile Delta, Organa approached the gates and "requested" that Pope Anastasius come out to greet him. Having absolutely no knowledge of Bulgars (he'd only heard of them a few months prior), the Pope bravely exited the city with only a few attendants to meet this new conqueror. To his shock, Organa knelt (and signaled his largely newly converted army to do the same) and requested that the Pope bless his new disciples.

Stunned, Anastasius agreed and was warmly welcomed by Organa, whom calmly explained that he was the new King of Egypt. The Pope was then personally requested to baptize Organa's three year old nephew, Kubrat, and bring him directly into the faith.

The Copts would be no less confused than Anastasius. However, when they learned that a Miaphysite King, controlling a vast army, had slaughtered the hated Byzantines in battle, the gates were thrown open. Under Organa's strict command, the city was not pillaged. Instead, promises were made of good grazing land near the Nile for the Bulgarian (and Syrian/Ghassamid) soldiers and families.

Organa entered the city, receiving homage from his new subjects. Surrounded by his subjects (and a very good translator), King Organa removed his helmet, bent over and used it to dig several handfuls of soil from the ground. He proclaimed that, on this spot, the Miaphysite Church (later mainly just called "Coptic") would raise a new cathedral here in the city where Coptic clergy had been forbidden by law to enter.

Toledo, Hispania

Heraclius the Younger, having crushed the remnant of the Arian Visigoths, would attempt to consolidate his power over 609 and 610 over the various factions of the peninsula. Even the term Latin term "Hispania" and Greek Term "Iberia" tended to cause problems. The peninsula had spoken Latin for centuries and, seeking to differentiate between the former Western Roman Empire and the Greek-led Byzantine Empire, Heraclius the Younger would tend to present himself as the "Latin" candidate.

The General would find a certain level of assistance by the fortuitous lack of clerical leadership emerging from the east. With Rome fallen and Byzantium in such dire political and economic straights that a new Pope could not even be selected, there was precious little competition from Byzantium for the attention of the Hispanian people.

Heraclius, whom hadn't exactly been confident that the coup launched by his father, the former Exarch of Africa and now King of Cathage, would go so long without Byzantine interference. It appeared, however, that the Byzantine Empire was perhaps on its last legs.

Byzantium

Though it would be months before Theodosius would receive news of the defeat in Egypt, that did not mean that the ensuing months were not chaotic and soul-crushing.

Over the course of the past two years, Theodosius would allow the clergy to try to resolve the issue of the Papacy having lost the Eternal City to the Arian heretics. With many assuming that the Holy City would soon be reclaimed (by 610, it was apparent that it would not, at least not by Byzantium's sword. Rumor had it that the Italian Catholics had repeatedly risen up against the Lombards only to be crushed again and again.

Theodosius would order the bishops of the Empire to Byzantium by Christmas in order to select a new Pope. The Roman Clergy had historically chosen the new Pope (after receiving the blessing of the Roman nobles). However, the exiled Roman Clergy and Nobles in Byzantium soon learned that the rest of the church had never been particularly happy with that arrangement and would eagerly convene to select the next leader.

Humiliated and outraged, over a hundred Roman priests and nobles would convene across town with the intent of selecting their own Pope, publicly dismissing even the possibility that anyone else had a say in the matter. Naturally, that merely encouraged their rivals and ensured a break between factions.

Rome

The King of the Lombards, Agilulf, would quickly tire of these rebellions. No matter how brutally they were put down, the Italians only rose up again. Priests were removed from their churches, the buildings handed over to Arian settlers. It was hoped by the King that the Latins would see reason after a while if their priests could be made to stop inciting the riots. But nothing worked.

In desperation, the King went to the remaining Roman clergy and offered a deal. He would allow them to select a Pope among them...if they found a way to reconcile the Non-Trinitarian Arian Church with their own faith.

The idea was so absurd that several of the priests present laughed in the King's face. While many of the clergy would be willing to compromise on esoteric wording (like the minor differences between the Miaphysite and Catholic Chalcedonian Churches), the Arians were so far beyond heretical that no common ground could possibly exist.

Agilulf, who was willing to compromise on the Arian faith itself if the priests could have bent a LITTLE, flew into a rage and slaughtered every Roman clergymen present. He then ordered every Catholic church closed within the confines of Rome.

The response was a predictable rebellion, once again brutally put down with the aid of hundreds of thousands of Visigoths, Vandals, Bavarians, Burgundians and others arriving from the rest of Europe. Indeed, the death toll was so high that there were good lands available to all of these peoples to settle, thus providing the King with a secure base of support the length of Italy.

Agilulf, seeing the futility of forcing people to a new faith, opted to simply cut off access to the old one. With the priests rounded up, the largely illiterate peasants would have no one to teach them the Catholic liturgy. With Arian priests then set up in the churches, it was believed that the peasants would naturally gravitate to them to learn the word of god. In another generation or two, the old faith would be gone.

However, this would prove more difficult than Agilulf imagined. He began to see the benefits of an organized church and began conceiving of unifying the somewhat disparate groups of Arians.
 
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Thomas1195

Banned
The Romans only have Venice left in Italy. However, nobody is going to take Venice, period, certainly not the Lombards and Co. Venice IOTL could not be taken militarily until the 19th century.
 
Theodosius just wants to hold it all together, and yet it keeps blowing on him. How long until the sudden-but-inevitable betrayal and coup?

Things are bad but... Idk. Having less land to hold and finance may help the Empire get its game back together.

Bulgarian Coptic Egypt... Now there's a sentence I never thought I would ever say.

Italy is looking like Arian-land right now.

Bulgarian Egypt is very vulnerable to a sea invasion from the core empire. So is Hieraclian North Africa.

I am curious how Hieraclius and Theodosius deal. I wonder if Theodosius could spin it as a Ressurection of the Western Roman Empire with his blessings.

I'm starting to think that rather than the Rome-Constantinople schism, we will see a WRE-ERE schism. But between them, Italy is held by Arian heretics. Then there's Coptic Egypt, too.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
The only option for Theodosius is to call on the Franks to help, and the Franks will probably be given all of Italy except for the OTL Venetia region and Sicily.

So, the sensible option for the Byzantine Empire would be building up Venice into a second Constantinople - an impregnable fortress and naval base in the Adriatic.

As for Heraclius, the obvious option right now is to make him Western Roman Emperor. There is no other choice.
 
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The only option for Theodosius is to call on the Franks to help, and the Franks will probably be given all of Italy except for the OTL Venetia region and Sicily.

So, the sensible option for the Byzantine Empire would be building up Venice into a second Constantinople - an impregnable fortress and naval base in the Adriatic.

As for Heraclius, the obvious option right now is to make him Western Roman Emperor. There is no other choice.

Can the Franks open this tin-can? The Lombardian Realm seems pretty powerful right now.

I agree that building up Venice is a sensible choice. It would serve as a constant reminder to Italy's rulers that they aren't as powerful as they think.

I have to agree about Hieraclius. It just results in way less loss of face. Hell, Theodosius pretty much gave his blessings for it. Making Hieraclius Western Emperor also means he will have to address the issue of the Lombards squatting on Italy right now. Taking care of two problems at once, and allowing the ERE to focus on what matters right now: The Danube frontier and Bulgarian Egypt.

If Theodosius can take back Egypt and get the army and navy back to top shape, Hieraclius is his bitch.

Hmmm... There's still the incoming wave of Arabs. Did the PoD butterfly Islam? If not, The Bulgars will have bigger problems in a few decades.
 
Chapter 10
610

Byzantium


Over the past several years, fearing a military uprising, Emperor Theodosius had quietly reduced the standing Byzantine Army to an economically viable state. Much of what was left of the army were posted to the Danube to ensure that the Avar-Slavs to the north had learned their lesson. Through 610, there seemed to be precious little signs of yet another incursion. Apparently being defeated at the Danube and then facing an invasion from the east by the Bulgars (though the latter were handily defeated) was enough to keep the fragile multi-ethnic barbarian collective's ambitions modest. The Avar-Slavs resided in one of the most fertile regions of Europe and suppressed a much larger indigenous Dacian-Roman population. Having lost tens of thousands of their people in recent wars, including the so many of their best warriors, the leaders of the Avars would deem peace preferable at this time.

This allowed the Byzantines to continue their colonization of the lands south of the Danube, having been desolated in the past decades, by Armenians and, increasingly, Georgians. The latter in particular would be coveted as settlers as the Georgians were dedicated Chalcedonian Catholics. Eventually, the Miaphsyite Armenians were banned from entering the region and many of those whom had settled either converted or sullenly returned to Armenia.

Of course, the northern region was hardly the most pressing in 610. The Emperor had painstakingly scratched together 15,000 men and much of the remains of the Byzantine Navy and sent them south to Egypt. It was assumed that the poorly led Miaphysite Copts would be defeated quickly enough. It never crossed the Emperor's mind that the Bulgars, the very people which he'd invited to fight for him in Syria, would decide to march west into Africa. By the time that the Byzantines knew what was happening, their forces in Egypt had been overthrown and the 15,000 strong reinforcements were crushed.

When the remnant of the Byzantine Army and thousands of Greek Catholic civilians arrived in Byzantium, the Emperor was reportedly so devastated that he withdrew into seclusion for months.

He even meekly gave his tepid "support" for the unapproved Exarchate of Africa's invasion of Hispania, though it was obvious to all that Heraclius the Elder was effectively making himself an independent King, something his son plainly intended to do as well.

Carthage

As it so happened, the new name of the King of Africa would not be Heraclius.....but Theodore. Heraclius the Elder would die of natural causes having ceased pretending to take direction from Byzantium.

While the eldest son, Heraclius the Younger, would be consolidating his Kingdom in Hispania, the second son Theodore would pronounce himself King of the new Punic Empire.

Alexandria

As Organa toured the vast distances of the Nile, exploring his new Kingdom, he was astonished with the wealth and population, the latter estimated to be near five million. He could not comprehend how it was possible how thirty thousand Greeks managed to maintain a hold over such a vast area.

Helpful Copts would apparently rise out of the woodwork to advise him. Indeed, Organa could not comprehend a situation where a conqueror was greeted with such fervent enthusiasm. The Miaphysite Coptic population truly.....TRUUUUUUUUUUUULLLLLYYYYYY...hated the damn Greeks.

The Bulgars and their Syrian/Ghassanid allies would be satisfied with gaining access to rich grazing lands far superior to those in Syria and Arabia. The loot from the Greek residents of Egypt largely satiated the Bulgar demand for plunder. Even opening the Egyptian treasury and handing over grain, gold and other goods to the Bulgars was barely noticed by the Egyptians. The land was so rich that annual tribute to Byzantium in taxes was greater than anything the Bulgars would take by 610.

In short order, the King would begin to grasp the economic, political and military situation of Egypt. It could all be explained in a single word: NILE.

Whoever controls the Nile, controls Egypt. It was that simple. The Byzantine Navy was the strongest in the western world and dominated the Mediterranean. This allowed them to maintain the initiative throughout the region. This was particularly bad for Egypt as the Byzantines could easily shut off virtually all Egyptian trade with only a few warships situated at the mouth of the river. By 610, most Egyptians, whom were relatively self-sufficient, probably would have been happy to lose trade for a few years in exchange for independence.

Organa knew, however, that Navies could be used for actions other than blockades. And the Byzantine Navy may yet prove the undoing of Egypt, whose capital lay at the most exposed position. The Copts, whom represented some of the finest engineers, architects and manufacturers of the Empire, would fall over themselves to prevent a Byzantine invasion.

Within months of his ascension to the monarchy, Organa would put the Copts at work building powerful new defensive fortifications along the mouth of the Nile. New ideas like using enormous chains to block the entrance were approved for trial as well as situating large numbers of catapults and other weapons in key positions from which they can hurl Greek fire upon invading ships.

There was a debate between factions as to how else to supplement the defense of Egypt. Some advocated using the nation's wealth to build a new and powerful navy. However, this was dismissed as impractical as skilled sailors were not adequately available and the navy would probably just rot at anchor on the Nile anyway. Instead, an idea of a "brown water" force comprised of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of old-style galleys which would theoretically run rings around any large Byzantine ship in the confines of the Nile. This was approved as the galleys would be cheap and easy to man as any able-bodied man could prove useful where unskilled landsmen would be little more than ballast on a true sailing ship. This idea was approved by the King and the various cities would practically compete with another to form volunteer "sea-militia" battalions.

A second proposal to improve Egyptian defenses included forming the semi-nomadic herdsmen of Egypt into a cavalry force tens of thousands strong. The new King deemed a fully defensive war to be an abomination and he wanted the flexibility and speed of a powerful cavalry force to move men and material quickly should the Byzantines invade.

Or anyone else, for that matter. The Persian may yet cast their covetous eyes upon the Egyptians while this new "Punic Kingdom" to the west may also prove a problem. Organa also made an effort to use both his own and the Coptic Church's contacts in the Levant to maintain a level of communication with his co-religionists in Syria and the newly refounded Ghassanid Kingdom. He had a feeling he may need some help someday.

Who knew who else would menace his new Kingdom as the years unfold?

Mecca

In a mountain cave near Mecca, a forty-year-old man received what he deemed a message from God.
 
Can the Franks open this tin-can? The Lombardian Realm seems pretty powerful right now.

I agree that building up Venice is a sensible choice. It would serve as a constant reminder to Italy's rulers that they aren't as powerful as they think.

I have to agree about Hieraclius. It just results in way less loss of face. Hell, Theodosius pretty much gave his blessings for it. Making Hieraclius Western Emperor also means he will have to address the issue of the Lombards squatting on Italy right now. Taking care of two problems at once, and allowing the ERE to focus on what matters right now: The Danube frontier and Bulgarian Egypt.

If Theodosius can take back Egypt and get the army and navy back to top shape, Hieraclius is his bitch.

Hmmm... There's still the incoming wave of Arabs. Did the PoD butterfly Islam? If not, The Bulgars will have bigger problems in a few decades.

I'm not sure of what direction I'll take with the Franks. I may move their attention to Hispania or Italy or even Poland.

I hadn't really considered making Heraclius another Western Roman Emperor though he may think of that. Of course, to do so, he'd have to conquer Gaul, then Italy. I don't think he has the resources to do so.

I don't see that Greece and Anatolia, the only lands which Theodosius can call upon for aid (and are bankrupt), are likely to be able to launch a truly decisive campaign against Africa, Egypt or Italy at this point. Indeed, I suspect that Miaphysite Syria and Armenia are more likely to be rebel than Byzantium regaining these regions by force.

As you can see from my post a few minutes ago, I am not butterflying away Islam.

However, I am vastly changing the circumstances in which Islam emerges in Arabia. Only by shocking coincidence did this new aggressive religion arise just as both the major Empire of the region had immolated themselves. Even luckier for Islam, they found that the closest regions to them (Syria, the Ghassanid Confederacy and Egypt) were long suppressed by the Catholic Church and often actively aided the Arab Muslim invaders against their long-time oppressors.

I've speculated that the Byzantine Empire, despite putting up centuries of resistance in Anatolia and the Balkans, had undermined themselves to the point of destroying their own prospects. I think an independent, unified Egypt would defend itself far better than the Byzantine ever could same as the Ghassanids, the Syrians, the Armenians and the Lakhmids. Spoiler but that is the direction I'm taking in this TL.

With a solvent Byzantine, more local autonomy and a solvent Persia (augmented by Turkic and Magyar allies, I believe that conquering the entire Near East would be impossible even for the most ardent Muslim armies.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
I hadn't really considered making Heraclius another Western Roman Emperor though he may think of that. Of course, to do so, he'd have to conquer Gaul, then Italy. I don't think he has the resources to do so.
If he takes Spain he would have the resource. He only needs to conquer Italy, not necessarily Gaul. However, Italy is now no longer economically valuable, and full-blown Lombard rule would make it worse, especially when the native people who were responsible for its OTL prosperity are now dead or have left.

However, apparently Venice and Sicily are still controlled by the Byzantine Empire. Theodosius should build up Venice and make it the capital of the Exarchate of Venetia/Dalmatia. Nobody is going to conquer it, period. A properly fortified Venice would even surpass Constantinople in terms of defensibility. With a heavily fortified Venice, the whole Dalmatian coast, and Sicily, Byzantine would dominate the Adriatic, especially if it manages to control Istria, Friuli and Verona, all of which are doable.
 
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I'm not sure of what direction I'll take with the Franks. I may move their attention to Hispania or Italy or even Poland.

I hadn't really considered making Heraclius another Western Roman Emperor though he may think of that. Of course, to do so, he'd have to conquer Gaul, then Italy. I don't think he has the resources to do so.

I don't see that Greece and Anatolia, the only lands which Theodosius can call upon for aid (and are bankrupt), are likely to be able to launch a truly decisive campaign against Africa, Egypt or Italy at this point. Indeed, I suspect that Miaphysite Syria and Armenia are more likely to be rebel than Byzantium regaining these regions by force.

As you can see from my post a few minutes ago, I am not butterflying away Islam.

However, I am vastly changing the circumstances in which Islam emerges in Arabia. Only by shocking coincidence did this new aggressive religion arise just as both the major Empire of the region had immolated themselves. Even luckier for Islam, they found that the closest regions to them (Syria, the Ghassanid Confederacy and Egypt) were long suppressed by the Catholic Church and often actively aided the Arab Muslim invaders against their long-time oppressors.

I've speculated that the Byzantine Empire, despite putting up centuries of resistance in Anatolia and the Balkans, had undermined themselves to the point of destroying their own prospects. I think an independent, unified Egypt would defend itself far better than the Byzantine ever could same as the Ghassanids, the Syrians, the Armenians and the Lakhmids. Spoiler but that is the direction I'm taking in this TL.

With a solvent Byzantine, more local autonomy and a solvent Persia (augmented by Turkic and Magyar allies, I believe that conquering the entire Near East would be impossible even for the most ardent Muslim armies.

Clothar II was on his way to unify the frankish kingdom back to one so but had no real incentive to attack the lombards how ever in this timeline if the lombards conitnue to piss of the pope and the clergy he migth have a great incentive as he was very much pro catholic taking power from the nobles and giving them to ecclesiastical powers .
 
Theodosius could start resettling Greeks from the Egypt exodus into the Levant to make a stronger hold onto the region.
Wonder whats the plans for Jerusalem or will it stay in Byzantine hands.
Don’t know if Byzantine lost the Sinai and Cyrenaica or not.
 
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Theodosius could start resettling Greeks from the Egypt exodus into the Levant to make a stronger hold onto the region.
Wonder whats the plans for Jerusalem or will it stay in Byzantine hands.
Don’t know if Byzantine lost the Sinai and Cyrenaica or not.

I think that the 30,000 or so Greeks in Egypt probably would not make a significant demographic change in the Levant.

I would say the Byzantine lost most or all of northern Africa. Maybe a remote region like Cyrenaica may be held by the Byzantine though I can't believe they could hold it for long even with naval superiority.
 
Language Map of Mediterranean - 6th century
Best Friend - Languages of Mediterranean.png
 
The Empire should take on a more defensive approach and fix their economy, and instead engage in the traditional diplomatic games.

What the Empire needs now is to consolidate the Eastern Mediterranean plus Adriatic. Which will give them both breathing space and the ability to counterattack in the future. Honestly the best thing to do is not let the Navy go into decline like OTL.
 
Chapter 11
611

Caucasus


Khagan Sheguy of the Western Turkic Khaganate had spent enough years at peace. Having divided into two groups in a civil war a generation prior (the Western and Eastern Turkic Khaganates), Khagan Sheguy was ready for some profitable raiding. Peace between east and west had long bee maintained (partially due to the Eastern Khagate having enough problems with the Tang Dynasty of China) but eventually the tribesmen wanted some fun.

Rather than try to raid the WHOLE Caucasus, the Khagan attempted to seek an alliance between the two major powers of the region:

1. the Byzantine which nominally ruled the Armenians and had influence over the Georgians
2. the Sasanian Dynasty which ruled Albania (the lands of the Azeris).

Both were tempting but Sheguy preferred to ally with the Byzantines. First, they were less dangerous if the rumors of large-scale rebellions in the Byzantine Empire could be believed. Second, the actual wealthy parts of the Sasanian Empire were closer and more easily accessed for raiding.

However, Theodosius proved less than eager to ally against his Empire's ancient enemy. Sheguy shrugged and determined to attack the Sasanians without help. After all, they had been fighting the tribesmen of the east for years anyway and even had to call upon the Magyars for help. Surely, they would not be a threat?

If the Sasanians put up a good fight, Sheguy could just withdraw knowing that his horsemen could easily outrun the Persians.

With this in mind, he invaded Albania at the first thaw of 611.

Albania

Khosrow II hated these damned tribesmen. However, the mobile nature of their cultures made invading sedentary Empires like Persia so easy.

Worse, he knew that the Turkics had communicated with the Byzantines though he did not know the outcome of this. Having been warned of the impending invasion, Khosrow had not been idle. He organized 25,000 Persian soldiers plug 5000 Magyars and personally led them north to confront the invaders. Though he knew defeat to the barbarians was certainly possible, the greater fear was a dual invasion of the Turkics to the north and the Byzantines to the west. Theodosius had been true to his word in keeping the peace while Persia fought to the east but that didn't prove much. It was possible that the Byzantines simply had no resources to stab the Sasanian Empire in the back due to their own rebellions in Africa and their own barbarian invasions by the Avars at the Danube.

Khosrow was only days away from engaging the main body of the Turkic forces when the worst news arrived. Thousands of Byzantines were marching upon his position from the west. Six Byzantine officers, obviously noblemen, arrived in his camp and Khosrow prepared for some threats or ultimatums. To his shock, the Byzantines knelt before him and announced that their Emperor Theodosius, in gratitude for Khosrow's aid in maintaining his own throne, had marched twenty thousand troops east to be put under the King's command.

Searching the faces for artifice, Khosrow slowly began to comprehend. Yes, the Byzantines COULD have stabbed him in the back but hardly could have followed up with adequate forces to take advantage of the situation and hold any significant amount of Persian territory.

This way, the Byzantines could ensure that the Persian forces were directed northward, away from their own troubled Empire.

Also, the Turkics probably would have invaded Armenia and possibly Syria if they could defeat the Persians. Better from a Byzantine standpoint to cooperate with the Persians in this matter and evict the Turkics from the Caucasus.

As the "Byzantines" arrived in his camp, Khosrow began to get a better idea of his rival's capabilities. There were no "20,000 Byzantine soldiers" but 2000 actual experienced Byzantines, 8000 Armenians who no doubt feared for their own lands and 2000 Georgian hirelings. Khosrow expected that the Danube, Egypt, Africa (Carthage) and probably Syria and the Ghassanid Kingdom were where the bulk of Byzantium's limited resources were being sent these days. Only locals like the Armenians and Georgians with an actual stake in the battle were sent, probably men who could not be forced into doing anything else against their will.

The remnant of the "20,000 Byzantine soldiers" would prove to be roughly 8000 Bulgars currently riding south to join them from their lands north of the Black Sea. This was perhaps even more confusing to the Persian King. Why would Bulgars, of all people, ally with Byzantium? Didn't the Bulgars just betray the Emperor and invade his Province of Egypt (or Exarchate as the province had been renamed apparently before the Byzantines were ousted by the native Copts and the invading Bulgars)?

Then Khosrow recalled that barbarian tribes were seldom united polities. The Bulgars who invaded Europe may be a different group than those remaining in the north. Indeed, once Khosrow thought more of it, the more it made sense from a Byzantine standpoint. The Bulgars of the north, whether related or not to those in Egypt, were a potential threat to Byzantium be it to the Balkans or Armenia. By getting the Bulgars to ally with Byzantium and Persia against THEIR old rulers, the Turkics, Theodosius effectively reduced the threats on two fronts with very little outlay of resources on his own part.

The naive teenager who arrived in his court all those years ago must be growing into a cunning administrator, Khosrow surmised, oddly proud of the boy (now in his thirties). He wondered if Emperor Maurice had felt the same way about Khosrow when the late Byzantine Emperor put Khosrow back upon the throne of the Sasanian Empire.

With a start, Khosrow realized that it had been nearly three decades since Persia and the Byzantines truly warred upon one another. In that time, they actually had COOPERATED and ALLIED three times.

Khosrow was too cunning to believe this would last forever but found that the peace in the west had greatly aided Persia in sustaining its own borders against barbarians and returning the Empire to solvency after decades of wars. Persia was in a stronger position economically than at any point in his lifetime and, irritating as they may be, few of the Barbarian invasions from the north (Turkics), West (Hephthalites) and south (Arabs) had yet to produce any long-term threat to Persia. The relative peace had allowed Khosrow to reform, place trusted men in administrative and military positions (less likely to lead another coup) and prepare his own sons for a peaceful transition to power when his own time came.

Now, with 45,000 men under his command, the King was feeling far, far better about his chances against the Turkic tribesmen heedlessly riding past the Albanian border.

Over the course of the next six months, Khosrow would decisively crush the Turkic invaders on several occasions, inflicting huge casualties not only on their warriors but upon the civilians whom followed them en masse. Just as devastating to the Turkics, tens of thousands of horses, sheep, goats and other livestock fell into the hands of the Persians.

By winter, the campaign was clearly over except for the Bulgars who continuously raided the retreating Turkics to the north.

Still fearing some sort of trick by the Byzantines, Khosrow was pleased to see the Byzantine, Armenian, Georgian soldiers march westward for home without incident. Out of gratitude, he granted them a measure of reward, mainly in loot taken from the Turkic tribesmen (usually horses, sheep, cattle and several thousand women and children taken as slaves or "tribute" to Armenia).

Khosrow returned to the capital in triumph, this time knowing that no faction dared plot a coup against the man firmly in command of his Empire.

Lands of the Uyghurs

For decades, the Uyghur peoples had been under the thumb of the Eastern Turkic Khanate. A Turkic people themselves, the Uyghurs had often cooperated with the Tang Dynasty against their kinsmen when it was deemed prudent. For the moment, peace remained in place though the Uyghurs knew it would not last forever. Sooner or later, the Eastern Khanate would face the Tang again.

However, in this time, the religion of the west, Manichaeism, had reached the Uyghur towns and villages. Like most Turkic peoples, Tengrism remained the most common faith. However, Manichaeism proved quite popular with several tribes as well as other Eastern Turkic Khaganate vassals, like the Mongols to the east.
 
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