If the Mongol empire hadn't passed the Urals into Russia and hadn't invaded the middle east and destroyed Baghdad, how would things progress? Would the plague be less devastating? Would Islamic nations be more successful?
If a truncated Mongol Empire=no Timur∴no Timurid defeat of Ottomans in 1402=Constantinople falls as much as several decades earlier=exit Byzantines, stage left...
If there are no Ottomans, there are still the Rum-Seljuks.
4: Russia may be centered at Kiev or Novgorod in that timeline.
That is possible. A whole herd of butterflies would be fluttering about.
Maybe there would be a Serbian conquest of Constantinople for all I know...
Bulgarian Constantinople? Konstantinoplis? With that could Anatolia be a Slavic-Turkish hybrid?
To avoid Mongols in Russia and Mesopotamia, would they go to India or Indochina or would it just be easier to have them lose the invasions?
and maybe even no black death at all in europe?
the biggest butterfly of all.
2: No Mughal Empire, meaning much smaller Muslim population in India unless an analogue comes around.