Lands of the North: The Federation of Nordic States

[ingemann]

Interesting I think the results in this timeline are quite logical. But I have a few comments.

Soviet Schleswig-Holstein will mean that something of DDR end up in BRD, I'm going to guess Thuringia. Another aspect is about Schleswig-Holstein. In the aftermatch of WW2 the Danish party SSW/SSV got around half the vote in German Schleswig, and there was wide support for joining Denmark. I can't imagine that this has lessened with Soviet occupation. So I think there's a good chance that they push for joining Denmark. I think USSR would premit it as Holstein is the most valuable part of Schleswig-Holstein with 6/7 of the population and USSR primary want the province to get access to the North Sea (and they still get the Kiel Canal). So giving South Schleswig to Denmark will be a way to try to keep Denmark out of the western camp, weaken the relationship between the Nordic countries and Germany.

Another element are demographic, after WW2 Sweden received thousands of Baltic refugees, while Denmark received 250 thousand German refugees. The refugees in Sweden mostly stayed and was integrated in Sweden, while the Germans in Denmark was mostly put in refugee camps and send back to Germany ove the next five years.
While at first I would say with Denmark being neutral, we would see fewer German refugees. But on the other hand Germany still need to send their refugees somewhere, and a neutral Denmark and semi-hostile to USSR Sweden would likely be much more pro-German, so we could see both countries take German refugees in, and both would likely try to integrete them into their society. This mean a slight bump in workforce in the early years after the war.

Sweden was and is the centre of heavy industry in the Nordic countries, on the other hand Denmark was dominating on the less valuable light industry (to large extent thanks to the capital Danish agriculture brought in). Finland and Norway on the other hand was much poorer, both had few raw material (or at least lacked a comparative advantage in exploiting these resources) and lacked agricultural potential. Norway more or less ended up focusing on fishing and shipping, while Finland had to focus on timber to get foreign capital (through both also did their best and with great long term success to develop their industries and what farming they had). Finland in this aspect also ended up the main source of immigrants to the Swedish industry. Here with closer economic cooperation, and Denmark not suffering with the capital loss of the German occupation (in fact we will have seen a major influx of capital from Germany, with German have had to buy what Denmark produced under WW2), we see a stronger Danish afterwar boom, so Denmark are going to need guest workers earlier, resulting in Finns (and the other early immigrant countries like Yugoslavia and Italy) being the main sources of immigrants, also with Norway being in closer economic cooperation with Denmark and Sweden, we may also see Norwegian being a major immigrant group in both Sweden and Denmark.

 

[DrakonFin]

Sweden was and is the centre of heavy industry in the Nordic countries, on the other hand Denmark was dominating on the less valuable light industry (to large extent thanks to the capital Danish agriculture brought in). Finland and Norway on the other hand was much poorer, both had few raw material (or at least lacked a comparative advantage in exploiting these resources) and lacked agricultural potential. Norway more or less ended up focusing on fishing and shipping, while Finland had to focus on timber to get foreign capital (through both also did their best and with great long term success to develop their industries and what farming they had). Finland in this aspect also ended up the main source of immigrants to the Swedish industry. Here with closer economic cooperation, and Denmark not suffering with the capital loss of the German occupation (in fact we will have seen a major influx of capital from Germany, with German have had to buy what Denmark produced under WW2), we see a stronger Danish afterwar boom, so Denmark are going to need guest workers earlier, resulting in Finns (and the other early immigrant countries like Yugoslavia and Italy) being the main sources of immigrants, also with Norway being in closer economic cooperation with Denmark and Sweden, we may also see Norwegian being a major immigrant group in both Sweden and Denmark.

In the case of Finland as a potential source of guest workers we need to also take into account the fact that ITTL the country, while still less affluent than Denmark or Sweden post-war, will be in a seriously better position than it was IOTL. Not only has it retained Viipuri and its surroundings - one of the main national economic centres - it has also not squandered its resources in maintaining a comparatively huge army and fighting a costly (and in the end futile) war of conquest. There is much less need for reconstruction, less displaced refugees to resettle and less men and women with wartime injuries and psychological trauma. Perhaps most importantly, Finland has no crippling war reparations to pay to the USSR.

This Finland is in a much better position than the OTL version to benefit from the post-war economic boom, building on pretty impressive interwar growth. I'd be surprised if Finland has many excess workers in, say, 1945-1960 to send anywhere. Even IOTL major Finnish immigration to Sweden after better wages and working conditions only started in earnest in the 60s - ITTL Finland might well have considerably better standards of living by then and might have even somewhat bridged the gap to Sweden and Denmark, resulting in less guest workers than IOTL.

The picture might change a bit if there is serious Baltic immigration to Finland too in the latter parts of the war.

 

[Devvy]

Cheers for the comments guys, more food for thought!

In the aftermatch of WW2 the Danish party SSW/SSV got around half the vote in German Schleswig, and there was wide support for joining Denmark.

Do you have any sources on that for me to read? The only source I've found is Wikipedia which quotes SSW/SSV as getting around 10% in the state elections of S-H in 1947 or something.

 

[ingemann]

In the case of Finland as a potential source of guest workers we need to also take into account the fact that ITTL the country, while still less affluent than Denmark or Sweden post-war, will be in a seriously better position than it was IOTL. Not only has it retained Viipuri and its surroundings - one of the main national economic centres - it has also not squandered its resources in maintaining a comparatively huge army and fighting a costly (and in the end futile) war of conquest. There is much less need for reconstruction, less displaced refugees to resettle and less men and women with wartime injuries and psychological trauma. Perhaps most importantly, Finland has no crippling war reparations to pay to the USSR.

This Finland is in a much better position than the OTL version to benefit from the post-war economic boom, building on pretty impressive interwar growth. I'd be surprised if Finland has many excess workers in, say, 1945-1960 to send anywhere. Even IOTL major Finnish immigration to Sweden after better wages and working conditions only started in earnest in the 60s - ITTL Finland might well have considerably better standards of living by then and might have even somewhat bridged the gap to Sweden and Denmark, resulting in less guest workers than IOTL.

The picture might change a bit if there is serious Baltic immigration to Finland too in the latter parts of the war.

Good points, and yes Finland will likely see a great number of Estonian refugees, simply because it's closer and the similarity of the languages (so we likely see beetween 50-150k Estonian flee to Finland, a significant amount, but something Finland could deal with). While Estonian Swede spoke the same dialect as southern Finnish Swedes most Estonian Swedes would likely still flee to the richer Sweden rather than Finland as for Baltic refugees to Sweden I think they will still receive a significant potion from the west coast of the Baltic countries.

Another aspect is that among the Finnish guest workers to Sweden, Swedish speakers was overrepresented, as such we without this exodus we likely see a bigger percent of the Finnish population being Swedes. Through even without that the Finnish speaker had a higher growth rate, of course the poor Swedes who left had a higher birth rate than average among Swedish speakers. So we see 6-7% of Finns having Swedish as first language.

 

[General Tirpitz]

This Finland is in a much better position than the OTL version to benefit from the post-war economic boom, building on pretty impressive interwar growth. I'd be surprised if Finland has many excess workers in, say, 1945-1960 to send anywhere. Even IOTL major Finnish immigration to Sweden after better wages and working conditions only started in earnest in the 60s - ITTL Finland might well have considerably better standards of living by then and might have even somewhat bridged the gap to Sweden and Denmark, resulting in less guest workers than IOTL.

This is quite interesting in retrospect as already in 70's there were workforce shortages in Finland most likely caused by earlier emigration.

 

[ingemann]

Cheers for the comments guys, more food for thought!

Do you have any sources on that for me to read? The only source I've found is Wikipedia which quotes SSW/SSV as getting around 10% in the state elections of S-H in 1947 or something.

You need a lot of digging (as much is based on ) and if you don't understand German and Danish a lot of use of google translate (SSW homepage is a good place to start). We saw around 100 000 vote for SSV in 1947 (and only in Schleswig) this was in a area (South Schleswig) with around 350k pre-war inhabitants (so without children this is likely around 40% of the vote, the refugees only got to vote in 1948 in the county election). Beside that in the county election in 1946 Danish candidates got 200k votes, which is a clear majority (around 75-80% of the vote in South Schleswig). Much of this shift was purely opportunistic (access to Danish food relief) and to some degree also xenophobic (against the East German refugees). But it did show that if given the incitiment a majority supported returning to Denmark (and USSR would give that).

Another problem is the border, while on land the traditional borser are rather clear. But in the ocean Fehmern was historical part of Schleswig, but the population was always German, the other problem island is Helgoland, which had shifted between Danish, Schleswig, Hamburg, British and German rule through time. The British don't want to give it to USSR (as it serve as a chokepoint for the Kiel Canal), but I don't know how happy they will be to give it to Denmark either. Maybe they will keep it, or give it to Hamburg, through as a alternative, they could give it to Denmark against Denmark received Fehmern too (which would mean that Denmark could keep an eye on what moved through the Kiel Canal, so this is only likely if the British expect Denmark to be friendly to Britain).

 

[thekingsguard]

Great string of updates!

I do ahve one thing to ask - what is the effect of the FNS on the Scandinavians who moved abroad? Is there a sense of, for example, Scandinavian American as opposed to OTL Danish Americans or Swedish Americans and the like?

 

[Devvy]

Cheers for the comments, more research going on, reading and writing

Great string of updates!

I do ahve one thing to ask - what is the effect of the FNS on the Scandinavians who moved abroad? Is there a sense of, for example, Scandinavian American as opposed to OTL Danish Americans or Swedish Americans and the like?

Like the EU or the UK, there will still be a strong sense of regional identity. While a person might be a Scandinavian or be Nordic, generally speaking the person will think of themselves as Danish, Swedish, Finnish firstly etc etc (although they will still all be Nordic brothers in arms...the Vikings are a peculiar lot ).

I don't know that much about the immigrant communities of the US, but I'd imagine most would continue to describe themselves as "Swedish American" or whatever as their families will of emigrated pre-Nordic Union, and also because of the afore mentioned identity. Maybe others in the US will band them together as Nordic-Americans for ease, like most people from the EU get labelled as "Europeans" despite there being a significant amount (maybe a majority...don't know!) of people who don't identify as such.

 

[Devvy]

Arriving into Hirtshals, Denmark, by ship from Stavanger. Onward travel by bus to Aarhus.

Welcome to Aarhus!

Aarhus is the principal port of Denmark, situated on the eastern side of the Jutland peninsula. Following the Second World War, and the cutting off of land transport to & from Scandinavia by Soviet borders, Aarhus and other similarly located towns in Sweden and Norway became important trade towns. Along with Esbjerg it carried significant amounts of Danish agricultural exports out of the country to destinations across the United Kingdom and the rest of western Europe.

One of the largest ships in the world docked at Aarhus..

There's not much of interest in Aarhus, so I'll be rapidly moving on after a brief writeup of Nordic Royalty...

A 20th Century Brief History of Nordic Royalty

The Federation of Nordic States is a federation between 6 countries - involving 4 Monarchies. Even this is deceptive though, as the 4 Royal Families instead descend from 2 Royal Houses; the Norwegian Royal Family is a branch of the Danish one, and the Finnish Royal Family is a branch of the Swedish one, reflecting the primary relations between the countries within the Nordic Union. It is only Iceland and Estonia who have a President as Head of State, although they still retain a Parliamentary system that is common across the entire Nordic area.

We start our rundown with Monarchy of Denmark:

King Frederick VIII
Born 1843, Reign 1906-1912, Died 1912

Although King Frederick VIII comes outside of our section of history, he is worth mentioning as the common ancestor of both the current Queen of Denmark and King of Norway. His reign was however a short one before weakened by ill health and dying in Hamburg on the return from a trip.

King Christian X
Born 1870, Reign 1912-1946, Died 1946

King Christian X was most remembered for his role in the Easter Crisis in Denmark during 1920. Although Denmark had been operating as a Parliamentary democracy for many years, Christian instructed his Prime Minister to include all of Slesvig in unification with Denmark as most of his subjects were in favour of (due to German movements in Danish Jutland). Zahle, the Danish Prime Minister, felt under no obligation to follow the order, and refused, which later led to his resignation. Christian's comments and interference in Government turned public opinion against the unification of all of Slesvig, and only the northern Danish-majority section unified with Denmark after Christian was forced to withdraw from the debate by public opinion.

Christian would later accept his role as a purely constitutional monarch, but his public image would never recover from his tinkering in Parliamentary affairs. Christian soldiered on, and managed to keep his country unified in neutrality during World War II, despite Denmark's location adjacent to Nazi Germany. Christian's death came in 1946, which heralded a new age in Nordic relations.

King Frederick IX
Born 1899, Reign 1946-1979, Died 1979

King Frederick IX came to the Danish throne amid fanfare with his wife, the Princess Ingrid of Sweden. Frederick oversaw great social change during his years in the throne, and oversaw the first Act in the Nordic countries that switched royal succession away from male-preference (allowing women to become Queen in their own right if they have no brothers), allowing their daughters to inherit the Danish Crown.

He played a large role in uniting the Nordic Royal Families for the annual Royal Gathering, which was later expanded into the Nordic Heads of State Conference. This was a public and very symbolic sign of Nordic solidarity, and also allowed them to discuss matters of state. He died in 1979 at aged 80, from old age.

Queen Margarethe II
Born 1940, Reign 1979-

The reigning Queen of Denmark, Margarethe II is the figurehead of the Danish Realm, which still includes the Faroe Islands and Greenland despite their almost complete independence from Denmark within the FNS. She married the French diplomat Henri, who became Prince Henrik, and has had 2 sons, of whom Crown Prince Frederick is the heir to the throne. Although at age 72, Margarethe II remains a surprisingly active figure in Danish life, and has delegated few responsibilities to Frederick.


Norwegian Monarchy:

Haakon VII
Born 1872, Reign 1905-1955, Died 1955

After being formally offered the Crown of Norway following a public referendum on the subject, Haakon VII became the first native King of Norway in centuries. Haakon, originally a Danish Prince, took the Norwegian culture to his heart, and his family (including his son, the future King Olaf) could often be seen skiing in Norway. Haakon played a large role in the early years of independent Norway, acting as a unifying figure at home, and toured extensively around the country. His avid commitment to democracy and Parliamentary procedure helped cement Norway as a western democratic nation.

Olav V
Born 1903, Reign 1955-1985, Died 1985

Olav V was an extremely popular King, known for his love of skiing and willingness to lead by example, the primary example being during the energy crisis of the 1970s when the King used public transport to go skiing, sharing the country's lack of petrol. His love of skiing, and ski jumping in particular, was legendary, and he won an Olympic gold medal in 1928 in the sport. He would also be remembered for allowing all his children to marry Norwegian commoners and remain in the Royal Family (although his third son Magnus married the future Queen of Sweden) - something rare at the time, only remarking that the events would thoroughly cement his family as a Norwegian one. Sadly Olav died from ill health in 1988, and the country mourned his loss deeply.

Eric IV
Born 1932, Reign 1985-

The current King of Norway, Eric IV, is the son of Olav V but the second child (having an older sister, Ingeborg). Despite reforms in other Nordic countries, at this point in Norwegian history the constitutional amendments for equal primogeniture had not been put in place, and so Eric was crowned King of Norway following his father's death.

Eric followed in both his father's and grandfather's footsteps, and integrated himself into Norwegian society. He was an sportsman, well known for his fondness for handball as well as skiing (the family sport), and later became the honorary president of Norwegian Handball Association. Now reaching into his 80s, he has started allowing his son and heir, Haakon, to act in his place and cover most of his smaller duties.


Swedish Monarchy:

Oscar II
Born 1829, Reign 1872-1907, Died 1907

Like Frederick VIII of Denmark, Oscar II of Sweden falls outside of our point of interest, but it worth noting as the father of both the future Gustav V of Sweden and Kaarle I of Finland.

Gustav V
Born 1858, Reign 1907-1954, Died 1954

Although Gustav V would begin his reign on shaky ground, seemingly interfering in Parliamentary procedure by promising to improve the country's defences, Gustav V adapted to his life as a constitutional monarch - although his dislike for Parliamentary democracy was never far from hidden. He would become one of the main links between Sweden and Germany through his wife, Victoria of Baden, which publicly showed the close Swedish-German relations in the first half of the 20th century.

In later years, Gustav V would join Frederick IX of Denmark in calling for further pan-Nordic efforts and co-operation, and two would initiate efforts to create (as occurred in 1962, after Gustav's death) a pan-Nordic order of merit, later named the "Order of Kalmar" in honour of the previous union of the countries. The Order of Kalmar remains to this day one of the most highly respected civil decorations available to Nordic citizens, and is awarded by the 4 Nordic Monarchs co-operatively to persons who have excelled in their field or contributed to their country to an unprecedented level. Notable recipients have included Niels Bohr (Danish, first recipient, only weeks before his death, for his work in physics), Ole Einar Bjørndalen (Norwegian, for incredible sporting achievement), and Astrid Lindgren (Swedish, for outstanding literary work).

Gustav VI Adolf
Born 1882, Reign 1954-1969, Died 1969

Gustav VI Adolf was a widely popular King in Sweden, in part due to his unequivocal acceptance of Parliamentary democracy. Work started on a new Swedish Constitution under Gustav's reign (Swedish Instrument of Government), although it only came into effect after his death. The new version contained several new concepts to Swedish political life, and would eventually herald absolute primogeniture for the Swedish Realm. Gustav would also act in his capacity as King with far less pomp and circumstance then his predecessors, something that would be followed by his descendants, and was something that further deepened the endearment that the Swedish people felt for him.

Gustav VII Adolf
Born 1906, Reign 1971-1985

Gustav VII Adolf would have a short reign, in common with his father, before dying of from cancer after a brief battle. During Finland's Winter War with the Soviet Union, Gustav had wanted to serve as part of the Swedish volunteers in Finland, but his position as 2nd heir to the Swedish throne meant the request was denied. He instead travelled to Finland several times during the War, meeting with his first cousin once removed King Kaarle I of Finland and together meeting combatants instead of serving on the lines. His decidedly pro-Finland stance made him made relations difficult with the Swedish Government for a time, but any lingering difficulties were long gone by the 1960s, let alone when Gustav was crowned King. His stance made him extremely popular in Finland however, and is perceived as helping to bring Sweden into the Winter War and thus ending the conflict.

The death of his daughter, Princess Christina, was said to heavily affect him, although he took pains to not let it affect his ceremonial duties. In hindsight, it also acted a bridge between the Royal Family and the Swedish population at large in their shared mourning.

Margaretha I
Born 1934, Reign 1985-

Following the constitutional amendments that came into force during her father's, Gustav VII, reign, Margaretha I became Queen of Sweden upon his death as the eldest child. Margaretha came to the throne amid much fanfare as the first Queen regnant in almost two hundred years, and this is set to continue with Margaretha's eldest child being a daughter, named Ulrika after the previous Queen Regnant of Sweden back in the early 1700s, leading to the almost unheralded notion of two Queen Regnants reigning back-to-back in Europe. Margaretha eventually married a distant cousin, Magnus, a Norwegian Prince (third son of King Olav V of Norway). Ulrika married a Swedish commoner, ending the line of royal marriages in Sweden.


Finnish Royalty:

Prince Carl
Born 1861, Did not reign, Died 1918

In 1918, Finland elected Prince Carl of Sweden as the new King of Finland - Finland's first native King, a position which Prince Carl accepted. However, on his trip over to Finland, crossing the Baltic Sea, Prince Carl was injured and died, leaving the throne to his 8 year old son.

Kaarle I
Born 1911, Reigned 1918-1929 with Regent, Reigned 1929-2007, Died 2007

Finland first "proper King", officially named Kaarle I (sometimes named Kaarle II in some sources due to his father) was underage for the first 11 years, and so had a Regent (Pehr Svinhufvud) acting for the that time. Upon coming of age (18), he was enthroned fully as King of Finland, and went on to rule Finland for a further 78 years, giving his entire rule (including the Regency) a length of 89 years - a world record for the longest serving Monarch. The early days of his reign were dogged by problems uniting his country, and setting scores between the two factions of the Finnish Civil War. His personal actions in peacefully ending the actions of the Laihia Movement, marriage to a Finnish lady and later actions in visiting both civilians and soldiers working in the Winter War all endeared him to the Finnish population. His close family relationship with Gustav VII of Sweden (first cousin once removed) also endeared him to Swedish speaking Finns.

Later in life he would witness the dissolution of the Soviet Union, upon which he would quietly confide that he felt he had managed to successfully lead his country through the whole episode of living with the Soviet giant as a neighbour. A constitutional monarch from the start, Kaarle managed to successfully unite a young country and forge it into the essential part of Nordic Union it is today. As stated after his death, he sole regret was outliving his son Pehr (named after his Regent in the early 20th century), who died in the 1990s from a heart attack. Kaarle stayed active in his role until about 2000, when he passed over most of his duties to his grandson Kaarle (II) to prepare him for his role and due to Kaarle's (I) old age.

Kaarle II
Born 1968, Reign 2007-

Kaarle II is still a relative newcomer to the Finnish Crown, and relatively young compared to the other Nordic monarchs at aged 43. Originally known as a bit of a "fun loving" Prince, the death of his father when Kaarle was still in his 20s shocked Kaarle into settling down in preparation for leading his country. Unlike his father and grandfather (who both married Finnish-speaking Finns), Kaarle married a Swedish-speaking Finnish lady named Mikaele, and have had 4 children together, making his eldest son Pehr (named after Kaarle's father) the heir to the Finnish crown.

Departing for Flensborg via rail (DSB Intercity)

---------------
Notes: So plenty of changes evident here. The Danish line of Kings & Queens are the only unchanged from OTL. Norway's has changed - Olav V married a daughter of Prince Carl, who in this TL went to Finland to reign, thereby Olav and Martha never met. Hence a different son and successor to Olav. In Sweden, Gustav VII didn't die in an air crash in Copenhagen, so he succeeds Gustav VI, and so by the time he dies, the constitutional amendments allowing females to inherit the throne has gone through, and it goes to his eldest child (daughter) instead of Carl Gustaf as per OTL.

Obviously the biggest change is in Finland, which doesn't even have a Monarchy in OTL! As Kaarle inherits the throne aged 7 or so, he has a long and glorious reign (he died aged 92 in OTL), dying at age 97 in this TL. His son Pehr (named after Svinhusvud who would of had quite an influence on Kaarle I) died of a heart attack before Kaarle I did, thereby Kaarle II inherited the throne.

I'll let you all identify the real royal characters in pictures above for people who don't exist in OTL!

 

[ingemann]

Looking good

BTW if you understand Danish here's a interesting pierce about Danish land reclaimation. In a Nordic Union there will be a even bigger pressure for expanding Danish agricultural areas. The reason are simply economic, with custom union with Sweden, Swedish industrial products have free access to the Danish market, the results will be BOP deficit, as such the Denmark will look to expand its primary economic advantage over its fellow Nordic countries; agriculture.

http://www.information.dk/158456

 

[vitemajoren]

Who is the person with the yellow tie in OTL?

 

[Devvy]

Looking good

BTW if you understand Danish here's a interesting pierce about Danish land reclaimation. In a Nordic Union there will be a even bigger pressure for expanding Danish agricultural areas. The reason are simply economic, with custom union with Sweden, Swedish industrial products have free access to the Danish market, the results will be BOP deficit, as such the Denmark will look to expand its primary economic advantage over its fellow Nordic countries; agriculture.

http://www.information.dk/158456

Cheers, have been reading that and other sources. Might shift the rest of Schleswig back into Denmark post WWII. Stuff like this is exactly the reason why I've stayed away from doing any maps so far. They will come though

Who is the person with the yellow tie in OTL?

He is Guillaume, Hereditary Grand Duke of Luxembourg. If you look at his ancestry, you'll see he's the great grandson of Prince Carl, Duke of Vastegotland - who became Prince Carl of Finland for a little while in 1918 in this TL. Kaarle II is his great grandson in this TL, hence using his picture.

 

[ingemann]

Cheers, have been reading that and other sources. Might shift the rest of Schleswig back into Denmark post WWII. Stuff like this is exactly the reason why I've stayed away from doing any maps so far. They will come though

Sounding good, beside that I have found a good dead wood source.
According to Dansk in Sydslesvig (Danish in South Schleswig) produced by Danevirke Mueum. We saw in the different South Schleswige counties (kreis) and towns in 1946 these results. Flensburg town 85%, Flensburg county 50%, Slesvig county 50%, South Tonder (Sydtønder/Südtonder) county 70%, Husum county 40%, Ejdersted county 70% and Rendsborg county 40%. In this election the refugees couldn't vote, while in the next welection, where they were able to vote (to the Landstag) SSW/SSF received only 32,8% of the vote.

 

[Devvy]

Sounding good, beside that I have found a good dead wood source.
According to Dansk in Sydslesvig (Danish in South Schleswig) produced by Danevirke Mueum. We saw in the different South Schleswige counties (kreis) and towns in 1946 these results. Flensburg town 85%, Flensburg county 50%, Slesvig county 50%, South Tonder (Sydtønder/Südtonder) county 70%, Husum county 40%, Ejdersted county 70% and Rendsborg county 40%. In this election the refugees couldn't vote, while in the next welection, where they were able to vote (to the Landstag) SSW/SSF received only 32,8% of the vote.

Cheers for that! I've been doing some more reading around it, and been slowly writing a piece (work has been manic these last 2 weeks!) - that'll be from Flensborg.

The Soviets will be solidifying the Kiel Canal in this TL, which along with the limited number of bridges over the Canal should slightly stem the number of refugees (due to the more difficult crossing of the canal).

One of the butterflies I've been contemplating to the side (as it's not really related to Scandinavia), is that without the Continuation War - or from the Soviet pov the Finnish front in Operation Barbarossa, the Soviets might turn the Nazis back earlier. Obviously the siege of Leningrad would be nowhere near as bad as OTL due to food supplies entering through Finland. Would the Nazis still reach Stalingrad....and if not, these effects make the Soviet attitude to the Germans slightly less angry. Less revenge when the Soviets invade, slightly less refugees fleeing possibly.

Anyhow, that's all stuff to the side. Hopefully will have a new installment to post at the end of the weekend.

 

[ingemann]

Cheers for that! I've been doing some more reading around it, and been slowly writing a piece (work has been manic these last 2 weeks!) - that'll be from Flensborg.

The Soviets will be solidifying the Kiel Canal in this TL, which along with the limited number of bridges over the Canal should slightly stem the number of refugees (due to the more difficult crossing of the canal).

One of the butterflies I've been contemplating to the side (as it's not really related to Scandinavia), is that without the Continuation War - or from the Soviet pov the Finnish front in Operation Barbarossa, the Soviets might turn the Nazis back earlier. Obviously the siege of Leningrad would be nowhere near as bad as OTL due to food supplies entering through Finland. Would the Nazis still reach Stalingrad....and if not, these effects make the Soviet attitude to the Germans slightly less angry. Less revenge when the Soviets invade, slightly less refugees fleeing possibly.

Anyhow, that's all stuff to the side. Hopefully will have a new installment to post at the end of the weekend.

I don't think it will have a major effect, the Soviet access to Leningrad will still be quite limited, and in general the Soviet will lack the money to buy supplies in Finland, which will have it own high food prices.

Another aspect is that Germany will not have needed to waste troops on occupying Norway and Denmark. On the other hand here they needed to buy food from Denmark and is unable to just pay it by confiscating the Danish treasury. On the other Denmark need coal, which Germany have enough off and WW1 showed that Denmark could increase the food production rather drastic (one of the way was by lowering the meat intake in Denmark). So not needing to occupy Denmark and Norway will be a net gain for Germany even with the loss of the Finnish.

As for Schleswig, I think we will see Schleswig Town end up thew centre of (Low) German culture, I expect that we will see something of a collapse in German identification in Flensburg, especially as it grows in the post War periode (I expect it to turn into a similar size city as Aarhus or Odense). Husum will likely on the other hand turn into the centre for Frisian culture.

Schleswig Town will likely stay relative small through bigger than today (around 50K), Husum may become a southern Esbjerg, but as a lot of export already goes through Esbjerg it will likely not reach its size either (so I expect 60-70K inhabitants).
Demographic I expect the entire Schleswig to have a bigger population than the 700K who live in it today to large extent thanks to the growth of these three towns. So likely closer to a million. Germans will likely make up around 200K people centred in Rendsburg and "Schleswig" (the area around Schleswig town) County. Frisians will make up around the same and be centred in Eiderstedt and Husum counties. Beside that Copenhagen will likely see a permanent "German" (".." because it will include some Frisians) population as historical, likely of between 100-150K people. The German refugees will likely be the starting source, while new migrants from the minorities in Schleswig, refugees from East Germany and immigrants from Germany will move in with around the same rate that the Germans in Copenhagen assimilates.

Linguistic beside the rebirth of Frisian, we will likely see Low German gaining a renaissance in Schleswig as the population are cut off from FRD. While standard German is likely learned in school, Low German will dominate the daily life.
As for Danish dialects they will likely also do better in a Nordic union, where the different Scandinavian languages are seen more as dialects than separate languages. The existences of a minor metropol (Flensburg) where the South Jutish dialect are spoken will also keep standard Danish (which are spoken with minor variance in both Copenhagen and Aarhus) from completely crushing that dialect at least, which will make dialects more acceptable.
German will likely be second official language in the entire Schleswig region, while Frisian will likely only be co-official in Husum, Eiderstedt and Südtonder (or if it united with Tønder county both) counties.

As for separatism, I doubt we will see much, the Danish state will likely try to treat the German minority as careful as possible, while trying open the Danish identity enough to include Frisians and their language (not impossible a lot of Frisians identified as Danes after the War and do so still). At the same time the existence of GDR south of the border will likely unite both minorities behind the flag.

 

[DrakonFin]

One of the butterflies I've been contemplating to the side (as it's not really related to Scandinavia), is that without the Continuation War - or from the Soviet pov the Finnish front in Operation Barbarossa, the Soviets might turn the Nazis back earlier. Obviously the siege of Leningrad would be nowhere near as bad as OTL due to food supplies entering through Finland. Would the Nazis still reach Stalingrad....and if not, these effects make the Soviet attitude to the Germans slightly less angry. Less revenge when the Soviets invade, slightly less refugees fleeing possibly.

Finland might be able to feed itself, now with a bit more farmland than IOTL, but it would still have to export some food even for its own population during the war years. Especially the OTL 1941 harvest was bad and most likely will not be brilliant this time either. Any food going to Leningrad would require additional trade through Sweden and the Baltic. In fact it would be partly up to Sweden and the west to possibly try and feed Leningrad this time around as Finns can only act as middlemen in any such trade. And they would not be very open to provide any services with anything approaching bargain prices after the Winter War...

As for the lack of the Finnish front, for one thing the Soviet troop numbers on the Finnish border might in fact not be much smaller than they were during most of the Continuation War. IOTL Stalin knew that the Finns were not interested in advancing any more than they had by late 1941 and the front was pretty much stationary from early 1942 to mid-1944; the Red Army could actually keep a pretty low number of troops in East Karelia. Stalin being Stalin, even ITTL he would keep some strongish units on the border just to be sure Finland will not try anything funny.

The USSR retaining the areas Finland occupied IOTL will not much help Leningrad or the USSR in general in terms of food, I think. The limited industry in the Karelian area will be of some help, but still this is mostly wilderness. At least the Murmansk railway and the port itself will be more secure. And anyway without Germans in Norway Allied convoys will reach the USSR much more safely ITTL.

 

[Devvy]

Yeah just to clarify....

During the siege of Leningrad, I wouldn't expect the Finns to be particularly forthcoming to help - they'll see the Soviet situation as a good dose of karma.

However, it's never wise to poke a bear, and so I'd see them allowing Soviet/Allied food & aid shipments through Karelia to get to Leningrad.

 

[Devvy]

Arriving into Flensborg by rail, from Aarhus

The Duchy of Slesvig Coat of Arms

The history of Flensborg is a complicated one. For most of it's history, pre-1864, Flensborg has been a part of the Duchy of Slesvig, a Duchy under the King of Denmark. It's fate inside the Danish Duchy of Slesvig was bound however to that of the German Duchy of Holstein (also under the King of Denmark). After significant political differences between the Kingdom of Denmark and the 2 Duchies arose, Denmark and a German alliance went to war twice over them, with the result after the second war that the 2 Duchies would be ceded to Germany forces in 1864 (with Prussia assuming administration of Slesvig - or Schleswig as the Prussians called it).

However, Prussia and the wider German Empire would be on the losing side in World War One, and in the aftermath, it was agreed that Denmark would be offered the opportunity to take back Slesvig. After the perceived German provocation against Denmark, the Danish populace at large was significantly in favour of annexing Slesvig into the Kingdom of Denmark itself. The Government however, wanting to avoid further confrontations over Slesvig, only wanted the ethnically Danish portion of Slesvig, and intended to hold a referendum across the territory to ascertain the territory to annex. The King, Christian X, ordered the Danish Government to annex Slesvig, in a move that turned out to be a huge oversight by the King. Denmark had been operating as a Parliamentary democracy for many years now, and the Danish Prime Minister (Zahle) felt he was under no obligation to follow the Royal order and refused it, which ultimately led him to resign. King Christian X implemented a caretaker government under Otto Liebe in response.

Flensborg in the present day

Despite the Danish populace's feelings over the Slesvig, they felt even stronger about Royal interference in political affairs, and the mood quickly swung to absolute criticism of the King. An almost revolutionary atmosphere existed in Copenhagen, and quickly the King was forced to yield or risk the abolition of the Monarchy. Zahle was reinstated as Prime Minister, and following his instructions, a referendum was held across the Duchy of Slesvig. It is an interesting question to ponder - if King Christian has not interfered, might Zahle have felt obliged to follow public opinion of his own volition and annex Slesvig? We will never know.

The terms of the referendum were weighted towards Denmark, and the outcome resulted in the Danish-German border moving significantly south.

The results and border adjustments after World War 1.

25 years later, Germany had lost World War 2, and Denmark had remained neutral through out the conflict. As part of the final assault and occupation of Germany by Allied forces, British forces landed in German Slesvig and later took the final surrender of the German Government from Admiral Donitz, while the Soviet Union swept in from the east, occupying Holstein and the lower areas of Schleswig. Later talks would result in the Soviet occupied area becoming the "German Democratic Republic", a Soviet state within what would become the Warsaw Pact. Most of the rest of Germany became the "Federal Republic of Germany". The British-occupied Slesvig became an open question.

In 1945, the news from the Nuremburg Trials came out that Germany had planned to invade Denmark, but had only held back on the account of Danish-Swedish relations. Additional factors alienating Flensborg residents were the attack on the city when control of Nazi Germany passed from the dead Adolf Hitler to Admiral Doenitz in Flensborg, as well as the revelation about the sheer scale of crimes against humanity carried out by the Nazi Government (including intimidation against the minority Danes in Slesvig). All this combined to create a deluge of support from Danes as well as mixed-race Danish-Germans to join Denmark. The Danish Government was luke warm in response at first though, slightly untrusting of the sudden wave of support and of the objectives of the Germans who favoured joining Denmark.

However, the Danish Government did take steps to engage with the British administration. The British were not particularly keen on just handing over all territory to the Soviet Union which had managed to grab the Kiel Canal (for which Britain would retain Heligoland as a British Territory to monitor the canal). Relations with the Soviet Union were rapidly changing from "ally" to "distrusted partner". This would later descend further to "foe" and kick start the Cold War.

The flag based upon the old Duchy of Slesvig, waved by separatists

In late 1945, a petition was handed in to the British Administration with 12,000 signatures, asking for the transfer of Slesvig to Denmark. In the absence of an agreement to annex the territory by Denmark, and not wanting to have to commit forces to protect Slesvig themselves in the current situation, Britain agreed to hold a plebiscite, limited to only those who resided in Schleswig. Although a number of Germans had fled to British-occupied Slesvig, the Soviet occupation forces to the south had rapidly set up around bridges over the Kiel Canal, whose presence deterred a large amount of flow of refugee Germans, and meant they usually headed for Hamburg (British-occupied) or elsewhere in the FRG.

The plebiscite was later held with a choice between the territory joining the German Democratic Republic (East Germany) or joining the Kingdom of Denmark. The result was a 67% majority voting for becoming Danish, despite the unhelpful comments of some Danish politicians that if Slesvig were to become Danish again then the Danish language would be the only official language. Officially, the Danish Government would recognise the results on a large district-by-district basis rather then as a whole, so as to only admit those areas who wanted to be part of Denmark and give as little reason as possible for any potential later revanchism. Results on a district basis were:

88% Flensborg Town
61% Flensborg County
59% Slesvig
74% Sudtonder
56% Husum
72% Ejdersted
45% Rendsburg

On those results, Rendsburg was the only district that voted to remain German - although this was widely attributed that to Soviet vote rigging, considering Rendsburg's location on the Kiel Canal. It was later found that the Soviet had allowed many German refugees who did not live in Slesvig to vote if they voted for the GDR. Considering the Soviet military and Danish neutrality though, Denmark did not contest the results, and Rendsburg remained within the GDR, with Rendsburg district being incorporated into Holstein. To the north, almost all of Slesvig was incorporated into Denmark, resulting in the eventual end of the long united territories of Slesvig & Holstein. Although technically incorrect due to Rendsburg, it is widely considered these days that Slesvig is Danish, and Holstein is German in their entireties. It's an amusing twist of fate to note that the Danish state invested large efforts into integrating the Duchies of Slesvig and Holstein into the Danish Kingdom prior to 1864, only to lose them to Prussia. It was only after regaining Slesvig from Germany that Slesvig was actually administratively integrated into the Denmark.

Before and after German-Danish borders

For the Danish, this heralded the return of the Viking Dannevirke, a defensive structure linking in with rivers to secure the Danish border against the Germans build during Denmark's Viking Age. Although lost during the Denmark-Prussian Wars of the 19th century, the Dannevirke would again be a symbolic feature of the southern tip of Nordic control. The Dannevirke would act as a Nordic defensive barrier again over the next few decades until the Warsaw Pact fractured, with the Danish territory to the south of it considered indefensible against a Soviet invasion. The areas along the Treene River, Dannevirke and Schlei marked the border of the area that Danish (and later Nordic) military would attempt to defend against German aggression - although it was also recognised that a successful defence was unlikely against a GDR backed up by the Soviet Union, so the area to the south of the Dannevirke evolved into a quasi "Demilitarised Zone" of sorts, to try and eliminate any source of aggression against a Soviet Union ally - a Soviet Union who had just ripped across Eastern Europe.

The remains of the Dannevirke today

In later years, Slesvig would remain the least culturally homogeneous area of the Nordic states. There are large areas of German speakers (who branched out into the Low German dialect with their isolation from other German speakers), and Frisian speakers, and the area has been administered with a careful hand by the Danish Government with regards to cultural autonomy for Germans and Frisians. This has led to an informal arrangement in schools where the language of instruction is in one of the minority languages, then the child will usually also learn Danish from an early age, and has played a part in the general integration of these areas into Denmark as a whole.

Multilingual signpost, a result of the multicultural area

Depart for Copenhagen by train.

--------------
Notes: So the Danish border has been pushed south after WWII (huge thanks to ingemann for his help on this section), with the almost total incorporation of Slesvig (Schleswig) into Denmark. The only part staying out was Rendsburg which was incorporated into the GDR province of Holstein. I think it's a nice notion to have the Dannevirke become Danish again as well!

Had to airbrush that picture of Flensborg as well...the flagpole had a German flag flying from it

 

[Shevek23]

This is a most entertaining timeline and I am subscribing.

Can you break down again, why would the Soviets want a grip on the whole Baltic coast of Germany rather than a slice of it protecting their whole western flank, and why would the western Allies agree to this rather than an East/West divide?

To be sure, OTL in theory the plan was not to divide Germany between Soviet and western spheres. The plan was sometimes to subdivide Germany into a lot more than two pieces, or alternatively to reunite Germany after suitable reforms (and annexations of its outlying regions to Allies and the liberated states they fostered--OTL it was Stalin who did most of the annexing, in the east, to Poland or in the case of Konigsberg/Kalinin directly to the USSR).

With the punitive balkanization plans apparently mooted ITTL as well as OTL, what was the rationale for the Soviet Zone stretching so far west in the north, presumably leaving Western occupation zones extending farther east farther south? How would Stalin have "sold" this to Churchill and FDR and why would he want it?

Such a far western Soviet salient might be useful in a Soviet military strike at the western nations--but I don't believe Stalin seriously thought in those terms, not in 1944 or '45 when he knew that if the Western forces were battered, his were pummelled, winning over the Germans only because they were pulverized. In fact the USA was stronger than ever and with potential for more mobilization still--politics permitting. A sudden Soviet offensive would have been using tired and undersupplied, overstretched troops, have had to expand rapidly to occupy much strategic depth, and would be just the thing to bring war-weary Britain back into the war and commit the USA to once again arm to the hilt and come in for a knockout blow--against a Soviet zone stretched thin and with Western occupiers based farther to the east to raise the chances Western retaliation could actually strike at the Soviet heartland.

So ethics quite to the side, wanting the Baltic coast makes no strategic sense from an aggressive point of view. I even forgot to mention, the Nordics, Danes included, had as you pointed out sat out the whole of WWII but presumably armed for it (well, anyway, I bet Sweden did--Norway might not have had much budget and Denmark might not dare provoke the Germans). So a mix of weary but determined Western European occupiers to the south reinforced with fresh and deep-pocketed Americans--and to the north, a fresh, untouched Nordic alliance to close the Baltic on them and strike from Finland--no, I really don't think Stalin would have been thinking of a military assault on Western Europe in this timeline!

Defensively, if he feared that the Western nations, as soon as the Europeans had a half chance to catch their breaths and reorganize the liberated territories minimally, might turn on him and attack the Soviet zones just as Hitler had--I'd think again, that as OTL he'd want his buffer zone to be as deep as possible on the east and not have an exposed western salient in northwest Germany.

I have to suppose then, that Stalin's interests in this timeline were mainly focused on the assumption that there would be no war and the competition between East and West would happen economically. I'm guessing he looked forward to the period of reconstruction and afterward, and reflected that the Soviet Union needed an uncontested outlet to the Atlantic for trade, so that hostile Western powers could not block them from willing trading partners who might or might not be politically in the socialist camp. Ideally the Soviets would control Denmark, but since that was not in the cards, controlling the Kiel canal was a decent fallback. With the canal and control of the south Baltic coast all the way east to Soviet territory proper, the Eastern Bloc had a shipping route into the Atlantic that could not be contained short of acts of war on the high seas. Britain and the USA could of course still blockade Soviet and DDR and Polish shipping, but only by means that risked declaration of all out war and would doubtless be labeled piracy if the Kremlin was not yet willing to go for total war.

So the RN and RAF can sit at Heligoland and take notes on Soviet and bloc shipping all they want, but they can't stop them from making port wherever they are welcome--in Cairo if the British lose control there, in Argentina, in India, in newly liberated former African colony ports, in Mexico...etc.

So, given Stalin was confident peace would last at least long enough to get some profit out of world trade (and no doubt, some Soviet prestige and perhaps clandestine influence on local politics in scattered parts of the world), enough to justify the cost of losing the western part of his holdings in a new world war (which he'd hope to win in the long run anyway) then I guess it makes sense for Stalin to ask for a north Germany occupation zone all the way to the North Sea, even if it means giving up some industrial and resource areas and strategic depth in south Germany, notably in Saxony.

Now the question is--why would Churchill and FDR agree to such a partition? (Bearing in mind, the two western leaders at least were hoping it wouldn't be a long-term partition, with reformed Germany reunited again).

To help you out, I could point out that OTL FDR was very skeptical of German reform and relatively uncritical of Soviet intentions; he held out for some time for the plan to permanently break up Germany and in particular subjugate Prussia somehow; he might not have been displeased with the fate of Prussia OTL had he lived to see it. Perhaps he would side with Stalin against Churchill, and Churchill knowing these two led the major powers in the alliance would go along realistically.

When you settle on maps, I'd be very interested in seeing just what sweeps of territory the Soviet Zone would amount to ITTL. Aside from the Kiel Canal, the Soviets were determined to get some reparations from Germany, which they took in the form of stripping industrial areas of actual factory equipment; they'd be sure to want their zone to include some of that, and some crucial resources, and decent agricultural potentials. As the Cold War develops, they'd turn around and set about redeveloping their zone into an industrial powerhouse as they did OTL. I'm sure Stalin would have chosen his ground with those potentials in mind too. Bear in mind though he has to trade off territory he claimed OTL for the westward additions ITTL!

 

[Shevek23]

I should stress that any hypothetical desire of Stalin to guarantee access to the Atlantic via Kiel is a big of a stretch. OTL, and I presume in this timeline, Denmark was forced to open up the Danish Straits as international waters in the later 19th century, at the Copenhagen Accords. OTL this stood all through the Cold War (and stands to this day of course), and Soviet and other Baltic Warsaw Pact nation shipping, even warships, were free to navigate them and trade and show the flag as they saw fit, right through Denmark, despite her NATO affiliation.

The freedom of the Straits obviously went by the board every time there was a war where Denmark was a party or more realistically some Great Power got control. So it was a dead letter when the Germans ruled Denmark OTL of course. And before the Accord, the British were able to bull right through during the Napoleonic Wars.

So Stalin's covering his bets with Kiel only makes sense (unless it came cost-free to him, but it's going to cost in terms of other territories he has to forego) if he imagined a situation short of all out war where the Western powers might abrogate the accords, turn the Straits over to Denmark as national waters again, and back the Danes in closing them to Soviet-bloc shipping. Then and only then, Kiel would prove a lifesaver for the Soviet bloc, as the powers could not block trade emerging from the canal without acts of open war.

This never happened OTL. After all, it would hand control of the Straits legally to Denmark, not a clique of western nations--in reality the latter would probably control but the legal fiction of Danish sovereign waters would be thin enough without the British and US blatantly manipulating it, and things can change over generations. And it would be a hostile act against the Soviet bloc and risk real war.

Perhaps here, Stalin judges a risk like this to be more likely, given the cohesive Nordic alliance. The Nordics might not align too closely with the Western Allies, having sat out WWII, so a unilateral abrogation of the Copenhagen Accords by them might not have the odor of an act of war by the Western powers, whereas the allied Nordics might plausibly have the power to enforce their claims even theoretically against Western protests. So if Nordic policy in the Cold War parallels Swedish OTL, on paper the Nordics aren't in an alliance with NATO (I forget if you already said they were, if so they are more like Norway or Denmark OTL) and acting independently. They might then deny the Straits to Soviet and allied bloc warships, or even to merchant shipping, then Kiel becomes vital. It would be pretty much useless in a shooting war since NATO could interdict it quickly with a few nukes, taking potshots at capital ships trapped in it as a bonus. Then the Soviets would be engaged in an all out naval/air war to contest the Straits instead. Against of course both the whole Nordic naval and air forces, and those of Britain, the USA, and probably France and the Netherlands and Belgium too. (South Germany would have its own problems and no navy). The Russians might forego the whole naval issue, relying on the northern White Sea ports for submarine sorties and holding off on naval war in general while they sort out an air/land war in Europe. Conceivably they could hope the Nordics just sit the whole thing out again if they don't attack on the Finnish border and leave the Baltic status quo alone. (The Russians can't leave the Nordics in peace if they let NATO forces in via the Straits of course, they have to try to hold the east exit in that case, a job for the DDR navy I guess).

If the Nordics are formally in NATO they won't have the same plausible deniability in closing the straits as if they were independent, but still the Nordic alliance does make Denmark stronger and the notion that a majority of Baltic nations will back the Danes in reclaiming the straits less insane, since the Swedes and Finns will be privileged by their alliance--as would Denmark's NATO partners of course!

So, on the whole not all that likely a contingency, and Kiel does the Soviets little good in an actual war, but I can see Stalin worrying about it and demanding Kiel as a guarantee of no shenanigans in the Straits.