Lands of Ice and Mice: An Alternate History of the Thule
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True. Vize Island by the way is one of the 'intermediate islands' I referred to which would be an effective stopping off point between Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemyla, making Severnaya Zemyla much easier to find.
Bear Island by the way is considered part of the Svalbard Archipelago, at least nominally.
We can assume that over time, the Sea Thule, will eventually find and identify most or all of the Islands within their sea area.
And, I doubt the Nenets will have much immunization against Bruce or Mona...[/QUOTE]
Thank you. Compliments are always valued and appreciated. I'll frame this one.
I would say that the subject matter was unexpectedly rich, and entirely untapped. Vistas keep opening up, and the research is fascinating.
That's an excellent question.
What do you think?
The region between the Barents and Baltic Seas seems to have been really complex.
Going into this period, we have the Kalmar Union - between Sweden, Norway and Denmark and including Finland and Iceland, which lasted up to 1523. The Kalmar was succeeded by Denmark-Norway (essentially Denmark with Norway as a province), and by an aggressive Swedish Kingdom (usually includling Finland) which fought endless wars with Russia and essentially turned the entire Baltic into a Swedish lake at times.
We also have Russia expanding dramatically immediately prior to this era, the fall of the Golden Horde, and the Republic of Novgorod. Novgorod Pirates, There's the lost city of Mangazaya, Pomos, the British Muscovy Company, Dutch intervention, a Norwegian demographic collapse and diaspora, the Sami/Samoyed arctic/aboriginal peoples.
I can really use some insight and feedback from people who have a better grounding in this. Right now, what I'm thinking is that the 1600-1750 period in the region may see...
* Possible displacements/absorption of Sami/Samoyed arctic/tundra territories by Thule, implying potential moves southwards of Sami/Samoyed and regional disruption.
* Alternative/Additionally, possible acquisition of key Thule cultural technologies - specifically musk ox, cold weather microlivestock - ptarmigan and hare, improved Reindeer/Caribou husbandry, and cold climate agriculture and microclimate engineering by Norwegian and/or Sami/Samoyed.
* There are two possible routes of Norwegian interchange - Icelands Thule colony and contact with Sea Thule. Norwegian adoption would probably mean more rapid population growth particularly going north and some political resurgence, stresses between a resurgent Norway and Denmark, and possible sundering. Alternately, shifts in power within the Kingdom towards Norway, more conflicts with Sweden, or potentially more active Norwegian colonization/settlement of the White Sea, and emergence of the White Sea as an area similar to the Baltic in significance. You might also see Norway or Norway/Denmark emerging as a significant competitor in North America vis a vis the Fur trade, Thule trade, Whaling and rivalries with Britain and France.
* Or, a Sami/Samoyed adoption of Thule methods. All sorts of directions. You might have a Samoyed/Thule hybrid culture. Or a Norwegian/Sami hybrid culture (possibly ascendant in Norway). You might have a much more robust culture of Sami/Samoyed expanding south challenging Russian control. Or a Russian allied Sami/Samoyed challenging Finnic, Norwegians and Thule.
* It's not clear whether the Sea Thule will add anything to the overall Thule package in terms of new edible/domesticatable plants or animals. There may be some adoption of more northern tolerant European items. But I don't think that this arctic region (Barents/White Sea) would have much new to offer. Possibly some bird domestication.
* I'd see some likely very active trade. The Sea Thule are literally adjacent to the outer fringes of Europe, and they're wiring into both the Ellesmere and Siberia Thule trade networks. So there's potential for a huge boom (and later depression as Europeans learn to bypass them to go to Thule centers). Also, a population boom and regional transformation in the Barents and White Sea coasts will produce a lively local economy.
* Likely warfare. Obviously, in OTL the Russians enforced their hegemony and were actively trading in the area. But British, Dutch and Norwegian traders were all active in and around the Barents Sea and White Sea. Assuming demographic shifts in terms of population density and constituent populations, and more economic value to the region, I can see a new front or a more significant front in Swedish/Russian Wars, possibly a Norwegian/Russian war or a Swedish-Norwegian/Russian War. Throw in the British and the Dutch as wild cards. A renewal of Novgorod pirates. Possible Sami/Samoyed or Finnic resurgences. And of course the Sea/Siberian Thule war alliance. It could get complicated.
This part of the world is going to get very interesting. I'll note that we've leaped ahead of the rest of the Thule world in time. In the bulk of this timeline, the Norse Interchange from Greenland has just happened and the consequences have been working their way through. As compelling as this is, I think we need to get the rest of the Thule world up to 1600 as well, in part because the state of the rest of the Thule world is going to impact on this region, directly or indirectly. And in part because Europe's relationship with North America and the Thule are going to impact potentially on the White Sea/Barents Sea shake outs.
Discussions or ideas are very welcome, particularly from people with specific knowledge or a similar bent for meticulous research.
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One more big Island
Don't know how I missed this one. Kolguyev Island, in the Barents Sea between Novaya Zemyla and the Kara Peninsula. Approximately 70 kilometers (45 miles) from the mainland. About 5000 square kilometers (2000 square miles). Mostly uninhabited in OTL, except for one settlement of Nenets. Historically, the Nenets used the Island for summer forage for their reindeer, and trapped, hunted and fished there.
Don't know how I missed this one. Kolguyev Island, in the Barents Sea between Novaya Zemyla and the Kara Peninsula. Approximately 70 kilometers (45 miles) from the mainland. About 5000 square kilometers (2000 square miles). Mostly uninhabited in OTL, except for one settlement of Nenets. Historically, the Nenets used the Island for summer forage for their reindeer, and trapped, hunted and fished there.
Long term, is there a possibility of Thule colonization (perhaps assisted or directed by a European or other Power or Powers) of the islands of the far southern hemisphere, or even of the Antarctic mainland?
There is such a vast amount of ground to cover between now and then in this Timeline I would be hesitant to say.
I'm not sure of the prospects. To my recollection, the major archipelagos of that part of the world are the Falklands, South Georgians/Sandwich, Kergulens and Crozets, Heard and McDonald, maybe Graham Land Peninsula and a straggler or two like Bouvet. With the exception of the Falklands most are uninhabited, although there were a couple of failed colonization efforts on Kerguelen.
Tough, very tough landscape. Let's put it on the shelf for now.
So... much... information...
I so desperately want to know whats going on in southern cattail/arrowhead areas and in siberia! SO GOOD, and going in so many directions!
I so desperately want to know whats going on in southern cattail/arrowhead areas and in siberia! SO GOOD, and going in so many directions!
Architecture and Megalithic Works
No worked out ideas here. Just a few thoughts I wanted to cast around, let people do some thinking.
First, comparatively, the Arctic is more like Egypt than Mesopotamia. Basically, there's a lot of stone around, a lot less erosional process in many areas.
Second, although there may be less erosional process, they do have that whole 'water and ice' thing to get in between the cracks and push structures together. In Halifax, there's an 18th century European fortress, and its literally been falling apart since they built it. In Europe, it would have been fine. In Nova Scotia, the harsher wetter seasons and winter cycles lead to water getting into the structure and pushing it apart.
Third, the Thule have the Arch. How about that. They have domed igloos in OTL. So they'd start off with their engineering with at least an intuitive and practical understanding of redistributing weight through arches and domes. That's a leg up on the Greeks, Egyptians, Maya, etc.
Fourth, they also have Pycrete. This would be a 'pre-construction' material, used to build and support your stonework, which you could simply count on it melting away after its filled its purpose. Some possibilities there.
Fifth, most likely, they'd have ice ramps or ice paths as ways to move or slide large objects.
Sixth, winter might well be a time of surplus labour, if many of their principal surpluses are generated during the summer (there would be a winter productive economy, but this is likely mostly sea based - sealing, walrus, whales, fishing, and involve different populations).
Seventh, as I keep pointing out, there's a shitload of horsepower available to this culture - Caribou, Musk Ox, Dogs, for hauling things around short to medium distances.
Eighth, some previous megalithic tradition in terms of the Inukshuk.
Ninth, downside, relatively low population densities.
No worked out ideas here. Just a few thoughts I wanted to cast around, let people do some thinking.
First, comparatively, the Arctic is more like Egypt than Mesopotamia. Basically, there's a lot of stone around, a lot less erosional process in many areas.
Second, although there may be less erosional process, they do have that whole 'water and ice' thing to get in between the cracks and push structures together. In Halifax, there's an 18th century European fortress, and its literally been falling apart since they built it. In Europe, it would have been fine. In Nova Scotia, the harsher wetter seasons and winter cycles lead to water getting into the structure and pushing it apart.
Third, the Thule have the Arch. How about that. They have domed igloos in OTL. So they'd start off with their engineering with at least an intuitive and practical understanding of redistributing weight through arches and domes. That's a leg up on the Greeks, Egyptians, Maya, etc.
Fourth, they also have Pycrete. This would be a 'pre-construction' material, used to build and support your stonework, which you could simply count on it melting away after its filled its purpose. Some possibilities there.
Fifth, most likely, they'd have ice ramps or ice paths as ways to move or slide large objects.
Sixth, winter might well be a time of surplus labour, if many of their principal surpluses are generated during the summer (there would be a winter productive economy, but this is likely mostly sea based - sealing, walrus, whales, fishing, and involve different populations).
Seventh, as I keep pointing out, there's a shitload of horsepower available to this culture - Caribou, Musk Ox, Dogs, for hauling things around short to medium distances.
Eighth, some previous megalithic tradition in terms of the Inukshuk.
Ninth, downside, relatively low population densities.
How low? I've been wondering.
I made some very approximate reckoning. To have a term of comparison, density in Norway is about 15 per square km today IOTL. Around 1500, it must have been around 2 or 3 per square km. I think that overall, Thule lands can have a similar, or even slightly larger, average. Let's say between 3 and 4, tending to 3, averaging very high densities (up to 30 or so I think) on the NWP coasts and ones below 1 in the Western Canadian Arctic Islands.
Now, the Thule are spread on a area of some million square kms. I'd say, in the five-seven million order, not counting glaciers and other inhospitable areas.
That means averages of quite low densities (but not much lower, or even marginally higher, than Norway or Scotland in the same era) but an overall population between the ten and twenty millions, and probably above the fifteen. That's pretty impressive. The Inkan empire was probably around or below the ten million mark (it was smallr though, densities higher, but still).
Fifteen million Thule in the whole Arctic area they inhabit (probably something more) by the time of European contact would make for a very tough set of customers for colonial powers of any kind.
I would suspect that any stone houses/buildings they produce would (atleast early on) simply be stone igloos. As far as monolithic structures go I don't see how that would fit into their culture, they have a distinctly rational religion, I can't imagine shamans calling for massive essentially useless structures, perhaps they might construct large earthworks for farming or larger defensive structures made up of earthworks and stone walls in more warlike areas. I just cant imagine any Thule wanting to build the equivalent of Egyptian pyramids atleast not until there is more centralized authority.
There's a lot of potential.
I think that basically, numbers tell the tale, espcially in terms of local population densities. How much advantage the Thule package gives in the European Arctic?
Politics are important. The Europeans are going to get there politically divided. Sweden, Denmark, England, Russia, the Netherlands are surely involved. The Hanseatic league is probably another player. France, Portugal and Spain showed very little interest IOTL but this might change if the area appears so much more promising in terms of trade partners. Russian dominance was ensured IOTL basically because anybody else was not interested enough.
Here, there so much more to stimulate interest.
An interesting factor could be Scotland.
Scots would be much more interested in the Arctic, even if no butterfly enters the picture before their personal union with England. They would be well-placed to interact autonomously here. Long-term, this could be a significant influence in their relationship with England.
Some serious Great Powers can see their forming phase strongly influenced: Russia, Britain and to a lesser extent the Netherlands and France. Not to mention Sweden.
I think that basically, numbers tell the tale, espcially in terms of local population densities. How much advantage the Thule package gives in the European Arctic?
Politics are important. The Europeans are going to get there politically divided. Sweden, Denmark, England, Russia, the Netherlands are surely involved. The Hanseatic league is probably another player. France, Portugal and Spain showed very little interest IOTL but this might change if the area appears so much more promising in terms of trade partners. Russian dominance was ensured IOTL basically because anybody else was not interested enough.
Here, there so much more to stimulate interest.
An interesting factor could be Scotland.
Scots would be much more interested in the Arctic, even if no butterfly enters the picture before their personal union with England. They would be well-placed to interact autonomously here. Long-term, this could be a significant influence in their relationship with England.
Some serious Great Powers can see their forming phase strongly influenced: Russia, Britain and to a lesser extent the Netherlands and France. Not to mention Sweden.
I did a set of calculations a year or so ago, using population density figures from France and the British Isles during the medieval era as a yardstick. Even adjusting for a perrenial three year crop cycle, poorer soils and, and large semi-productive (herding/pastoral) and non-productive landscape, I was still coming up with huge populations. I think maybe that a modern era 20th century Thule population might reach around 30 or 40 million.
For the period 1400 to 1550, I'm thinking maybe five to fifteen millions range. A fraction of medieval British Isles or French population densities, but still astonishing.
Pyramids are almost certainly out. But I think we'll see grandiose architecture emerging in the state era coming up.
There's also that island just south of Novaja Zemlja, Vaigach. It was pretty important to the Nenets as a sacred place, according to Wikipedia.
And the White Island, just immediately north of the Jamal peninisula, and apparently not habited in this timeframe. And, for the record:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ra_Sea_islands.PNG/528px-Kara_Sea_islands.PNG
Also, this place.
Small island (20 square kms). Not useful at all, if not as a midpoint between Novaja Z. and Severnaja Z., and hunting base. Maybe some dwarf fireweed and some low-yield high arctic crops can be grown, some musk ox or ptarmigan will live will assuming earthworks, but I suppose the locals would get relatively prosperous as middlemen. Not a large population of course, maybe a handful thousands, tops.
EDIT: Looking at the map, Uedineniya can be reached easily and directly from Vize and become at least a secondary point of Thule diffusion to the Kirov, Arctic Institute, Sverdrup and Nordenskjold islands, separate from the pushes from Novaja and Severnaja Zemlja.
Small island (20 square kms). Not useful at all, if not as a midpoint between Novaja Z. and Severnaja Z., and hunting base. Maybe some dwarf fireweed and some low-yield high arctic crops can be grown, some musk ox or ptarmigan will live will assuming earthworks, but I suppose the locals would get relatively prosperous as middlemen. Not a large population of course, maybe a handful thousands, tops.
EDIT: Looking at the map, Uedineniya can be reached easily and directly from Vize and become at least a secondary point of Thule diffusion to the Kirov, Arctic Institute, Sverdrup and Nordenskjold islands, separate from the pushes from Novaja and Severnaja Zemlja.
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1450 to 1580 Demographics of the Thule ‘Mature’ Era
1450 is generally considered to mark the end of the Second Thule Agricultural period, as well as defining the era in which the Norse interchange worked its way through the Thule mainstream.
The era that follows is commonly termed the ‘Mature’ Era. As with any field of scholarship, the exact boundaries of this cultural epoch are difficult to define. Some academics place the Mature era as beginning as early as 1425 or 1450, or as late as 1475. Other arguments place the end of the Era at 1580, the time of first direct modern European contact, or as late as 1650.
The consensus, however, is that the Mature Era consists of a period of roughly one hundred to one hundred and fifty years in Thule history, where the radical series of transformations were consolidated and the shapes of modern Thule culture took shape.
At the beginning of this period, essentially all of the key plants in Thule Agriculture had domesticated, most of them diverging considerably from their wild forms and reaching optimum levels of biological productivity. A diversity of agricultural techniques, including microclimate engineering, mound architectures, irrigation and drainage trenching and stone cover farming were in place. Thule animal domesticates had been perfected, and management of these had reached a plateau, and animals were used on their own productively, and to supplement and support agricultural activities.
The Thule had essentially developed a comprehensive and extremely flexible package or set of packages, which could be tailored to almost any environment. The Thule could not survive on bare rock or glacier ice, but in any other environment between, they were gifted at finding a way to maximize the productivity of the landscape beyond the state of nature, and turning that landscape to the support of human life, or of the animals that supported human life.
The effects on the Arctic were dramatic. If Satellite photography had been available, they would have shown a change in many arctic landscapes, a shift of albedo, as vast areas darkened with increasingly productive vegetable density. Were steadily reshaped by parellel waves of mounds. The amount of vegetal biomass increased dramatically, as did specific animal populations. The Thule preserved and enriched arctic soil in many places, they literally manufactured it from sand or gravels in other places. Landscapes that were once almost barren supported populations of Caribou or Musk Ox, or supported increased densities of these animals. Landscapes that had once supported only Caribou came to support agriculture.
Landscapes that supported agriculture increased productivity.
It was still an Arctic or Sub-Arctic environment, and as the mature period wore on the Little Ice Age did its best to claw the landscape back. Population densities would never exceed a significant fraction of medieval European densities. Nevertheless, by the Mature Era the Thule had achieved one of the most efficient land management and use systems in human history.
The mature period saw the consolidation of these developments. Having acquired their full suite of tools, they steadily ‘refined their game’, incrementally maximizing and fine tuning regional productivities. The era was one of stable demographics and steady population growth.
Thule population during the mature era was estimated to be between five and fifteen million, with some estimates of the late era population reaching twenty million.
With this population grown came a number of developments. In order, these were:
* the emergence of states and state-like social organizations - notably in Alaska, McKenzie, Coppermine, Hudson Bay, Baffin, Ellesmere and South Greenland, as well as conflicts, competition and cooperation between these states.
* the formalization of the shamanic class and the divergence into specialties;
* steadily increasing volumes of trade through the Thule realm, locally, regionally and over distance;
* the emergence of political and trading elites which rivalled the shamanic class in influence, and tensions between these various elites;
* the extension of agricultural or pastoral techniques to management of sea life populations, particularly sea mammals;
* the development of Siberian Thule and Sea Thule subcultures;
1450 is generally considered to mark the end of the Second Thule Agricultural period, as well as defining the era in which the Norse interchange worked its way through the Thule mainstream.
The era that follows is commonly termed the ‘Mature’ Era. As with any field of scholarship, the exact boundaries of this cultural epoch are difficult to define. Some academics place the Mature era as beginning as early as 1425 or 1450, or as late as 1475. Other arguments place the end of the Era at 1580, the time of first direct modern European contact, or as late as 1650.
The consensus, however, is that the Mature Era consists of a period of roughly one hundred to one hundred and fifty years in Thule history, where the radical series of transformations were consolidated and the shapes of modern Thule culture took shape.
At the beginning of this period, essentially all of the key plants in Thule Agriculture had domesticated, most of them diverging considerably from their wild forms and reaching optimum levels of biological productivity. A diversity of agricultural techniques, including microclimate engineering, mound architectures, irrigation and drainage trenching and stone cover farming were in place. Thule animal domesticates had been perfected, and management of these had reached a plateau, and animals were used on their own productively, and to supplement and support agricultural activities.
The Thule had essentially developed a comprehensive and extremely flexible package or set of packages, which could be tailored to almost any environment. The Thule could not survive on bare rock or glacier ice, but in any other environment between, they were gifted at finding a way to maximize the productivity of the landscape beyond the state of nature, and turning that landscape to the support of human life, or of the animals that supported human life.
The effects on the Arctic were dramatic. If Satellite photography had been available, they would have shown a change in many arctic landscapes, a shift of albedo, as vast areas darkened with increasingly productive vegetable density. Were steadily reshaped by parellel waves of mounds. The amount of vegetal biomass increased dramatically, as did specific animal populations. The Thule preserved and enriched arctic soil in many places, they literally manufactured it from sand or gravels in other places. Landscapes that were once almost barren supported populations of Caribou or Musk Ox, or supported increased densities of these animals. Landscapes that had once supported only Caribou came to support agriculture.
Landscapes that supported agriculture increased productivity.
It was still an Arctic or Sub-Arctic environment, and as the mature period wore on the Little Ice Age did its best to claw the landscape back. Population densities would never exceed a significant fraction of medieval European densities. Nevertheless, by the Mature Era the Thule had achieved one of the most efficient land management and use systems in human history.
The mature period saw the consolidation of these developments. Having acquired their full suite of tools, they steadily ‘refined their game’, incrementally maximizing and fine tuning regional productivities. The era was one of stable demographics and steady population growth.
Thule population during the mature era was estimated to be between five and fifteen million, with some estimates of the late era population reaching twenty million.
With this population grown came a number of developments. In order, these were:
* the emergence of states and state-like social organizations - notably in Alaska, McKenzie, Coppermine, Hudson Bay, Baffin, Ellesmere and South Greenland, as well as conflicts, competition and cooperation between these states.
* the formalization of the shamanic class and the divergence into specialties;
* steadily increasing volumes of trade through the Thule realm, locally, regionally and over distance;
* the emergence of political and trading elites which rivalled the shamanic class in influence, and tensions between these various elites;
* the extension of agricultural or pastoral techniques to management of sea life populations, particularly sea mammals;
* the development of Siberian Thule and Sea Thule subcultures;
I wouldn't go a thousand, but there may be a village colony. Most likely significant for transshipment and exploration. The presence of these intervening islands significantly increases the likelihood of sea ventures leapfrogging their way to the big archipelagos.
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