Kriegsmarine: what if Germany managed to surpass the British Navy?

[MadHatter]

What if the Kriegsmarine won WW1?

1871: Following the unification of Germany, Emperor Wilhelm I and his Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck, prioritize the expansion of the German navy. They initiate a comprehensive naval construction program aimed at surpassing the Royal Navy of Great Britain, recognizing the strategic importance of maritime power.

1888: Emperor Wilhelm II ascends to the throne and intensifies Germany's naval ambitions. He accelerates the construction of battleships, cruisers, and submarines, pouring significant resources into naval development.

1898: Germany successfully negotiates the acquisition of several overseas colonies, granting them access to vital global trade routes and securing additional resources to fuel its naval expansion.

1902: The German Navy Law is enacted, allocating substantial funds to the construction of a formidable fleet. Wilhelm II appoints Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz as Secretary of State of the Imperial Navy, who implements an aggressive shipbuilding program.

1907: Germany surpasses Britain's naval power, boasting a modern and imposing fleet. The German High Seas Fleet becomes the envy of the world, instilling fear in British naval strategists.

1914: The tensions between Germany and the Entente Powers (Britain, France, and Russia) reach a boiling point. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary triggers a domino effect that leads to the outbreak of World War I.

August 1914: Germany launches a surprise naval offensive, targeting the British Home Fleet at its base in Scapa Flow. The German fleet manages to cripple a significant portion of the British battleships, rendering them ineffective for the time being.

September 1914: German forces, having achieved naval superiority, initiate a blockade of France. The French find themselves cut off from vital supplies and resources, leading to a gradual weakening of their military capabilities.

December 1914: Spain, influenced by Germany's naval dominance and seeking territorial gains, joins the war on the side of the Central Powers. Spanish forces seize Morocco and launch an invasion of southwestern France, destabilizing the French front.

April 1915: Italy enters the war, siding with the Entente Powers. However, Austria-Hungary launches a successful invasion of Italy, overwhelming their defenses and securing a swift victory.

May 1916: The European Entente Powers, facing significant losses and internal turmoil, capitulate one by one. Germany occupies France, Belgium, and Russia, while Austria-Hungary extends its control over Italy.

June 1917: With Europe under Central Powers control, Germany initiates preparations for the invasion of Britain. The German High Seas Fleet, reinforced by submarines and air support, sails towards the British Isles.

July 1918: The German invasion of Britain commences, involving an amphibious assault along the eastern coast of England. German forces establish beachheads and push inland, encountering fierce resistance from the British Army.

November 1918: After months of intense fighting, Germany finally achieves a breakthrough and forces the British to surrender. The fall of Britain marks the final victory for the Central Powers in World War I

In the London Peace Conferences, many territory's swap hands, With kaiser wilhelm leading the partitions, the peace is vicious.

France:

• Northwestern lands would be seeded to germany, from the river somme onwards would become part of germany, along with an expansion of german alsace lorraine up to the river Le Doubs
• Germany would also seize French indochina, the central african Republic, and benin
• Morocco would be seized by spain along with some algerian territory's, along with this, the Franco-Spanish border would be moved to the river Garonne
• Spain would seize Corsica
• The ottomans would annex Tunisia and Djibouti
• An independent Brittany, Madagascar, and chad would be established
• the germans would get 25% of all french tax money for 5 years
• Austria Hungary would gain Marseille
• Switzerland is seeded some land to weaken France

Russia:

• Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia would all become independent puppet states
• The ottomans would seize the caucasus regions, along with a puppet state in Turkic russian lands
• They would have to seed outer manchuria to manchuria
• Finland would be expanded into koralia
• Crimea would be directly annexed into Germany
• Saint Petersburg would become a Free-City

Italy:

• The province of venice would be seeded to Austria-Hungary
• Sicily and Sardinia would be seeded to spain
• Libya would be seeded to the Ottoman Empire
• A independent Papal state would be established
• An independent Genoa would be established
• South Italy would be made independent and become a spanish Puppet
• Somalia and Eritrea would be seeded to the Ottomans

Britain:

• British New guinea would be annexed by germany
• Kenya and Zambia would be annexed by Germany
• Egypt would be seeded to the Ottoman Empire
• British Somaliland would be annexed by the Ottoman Empire
• British south india would be made into an independent state
• Sierra Leone would be seeded to Liberia
• Cyprus would be seeded to the Ottomans
• Cornwall would be made independent German Puppet state
• A small irish state would be Established
• Spain would seize Gibraltar
• Dover would be annexed by germany
• £50,000,000 would be given to Germany by 1922
• London would be occupied
• All middle eastern lands would be seeded to the Ottomans

After some small squabbles with the other small enante members, the Peace treaty would be ratified by all present.
The entente Partition of 1918 goes as such:
European map:

World Map:

Extras:

1. The Ottomans would become a federation giving full respect and autonomy to their minority's
2. The austrians would establish a 3'rd crown in their empire
3. Germany sees a population boom, along with their annexed territories', the germans have over 89,550,000 people
4. Lenin manages to place trotsky in charge of the USSR
5. France falls to Fascism
6. Britain and its remaining colonies form the imperial federation

 

[Monk78]

It was HSF in ww1 not KM

 

[MadHatter]

It was HSF in ww1 not KM

Whats HSF

 

[Elfwine]

1907: Germany surpasses Britain's naval power, boasting a modern and imposing fleet. The German High Seas Fleet becomes the envy of the world, instilling fear in British naval strategists.

So what has Britain done between the POD and 1907 to allow this to happen?

It would be good to shed some light on that.

 

[MadHatter]

So what has Britain done between the POd and 1907 to allow this to happen?

India and the boers in south Africa revolted, distracting britain and causing an empire wide crisis, allowing the germans to swoop in and secretly surpass their navy

 

[Grey Wolf]

Nice to have a big fleet of ironclads, but they won't be much use by 1900. Admittedly they give a potential "x number" for the fleet strength that a navy law can then be enacted to ensure continual replacement.

I suppose it is POSSIBLE for German naval building infrastructure to advance in the 30 or so years before 1900, so they have the yards and slips available to build fast and modern from Emden to Danzig.

Obviously this partially assumes that Britain will sit back and be out-built, BUT if we are at a point where Germany can build as fast as Britain then it might become a race of equals

One interesting consideration is that German naval development will be more advanced, and that potentially Germany comes up with the first all-big-gun battleships, instead of Britain or the USA.

 

[Garrison]

India and the boers in south Africa revolted, distracting britain and causing an empire wide crisis, allowing the germans to swoop in and secretly surpass their navy

There is no secretly building a fleet and the glib idea of some sort of revolt India somehow impeding British shipbuilding capacity is essentially nonsense. The HSF cannot overtake the Royal Navy because Germany simply lacks the shipbuilding capacity to do so.

 

[MadHatter]

There is no secretly building a fleet and the glib idea of some sort of revolt India somehow impeding British shipbuilding capacity is essentially nonsense. The HSF cannot overtake the Royal Navy because Germany simply lacks the shipbuilding capacity to do so.

The point is not how they did it, that's not why i made the scenario

 

[Elfwine]

India and the boers in south Africa revolted, distracting britain and causing an empire wide crisis, allowing the germans to swoop in and secretly surpass their navy

"Empire wide crisis" does not mean "Britain is lead by utter morons totally clueless as to the importance of the navy to Britain's security."

There is no secretly building a fleet and the glib idea of some sort of revolt India somehow impeding British shipbuilding capacity is essentially nonsense. The HSF cannot overtake the Royal Navy because Germany simply lacks the shipbuilding capacity to do so.

This is basically the point to why I asked - I suppose you could see a scenario (with a POD in the 1870s) where the Germans improve their shipbuilding capacity from OTL, but that is the easy part.

I don't want to say it is utterly impossible in all possible worlds for the Germans to win at sea, if they prioritize the navy more than OTL (although the army will, for good reason, protest) - but I really can't see Britain not at least responding to the effort to do so.

 

[David Flin]

So, in 1888, Germany starts a massive naval construction programme, presumably with extra slip yards, and Britain does nothing about it.

Meanwhile, despite these massive resources thrown into naval construction, Germany still has enough land based power to easily beat France and Russia because of 'reasons'.

Like so many, it rather requires one side to be able to do lots of extra things without impacting anything else they do AND it requires the other side to do nothing different but also be very stupid.

 

[RanulfC]

Whats HSF

"High Seas Fleet" which is what Imperial Germany called the Navy

Randy

 

[Elfwine]

Speaking for myself, the main thing I want to emphasize is that if Germany goes naval to this extent that will have a dramatic impact on things before 1914. That as it stands seems under-explored despite being the entire foundation for what happens in this scenario's Great War.

So the scenario reads less like an exploration of the impact of a stronger High Seas Fleet, and more like "What if things went favorably for Germany and its allies? With Spain deciding to jump into WWI because why not."

 

[RanulfC]

The point is not how they did it, that's not why i made the scenario

The problem is something has to give to get the outcome you want. Germany was primarily a land power and only started trying to match British sea power very 'recently'. Britain on the other hand was ALWAYS a 'sea-power' more than a "land-power" and it's polices reflected this. The main question is why Germany gives up on the one thing it can better control (Land Power) in favor of trying to beat a nation that has vastly more experience and vastly more capability (Britain) in an arena (Sea Power) they historically have less interest and need. To get the outcome you want something has to 'give' and that in and of itself is going to be a big driver in future outcomes.

Your biggest issue I see in the timeline is that right off the bat Germany suddenly decided that despite winning a land war with France they are going to go all out to 'beat' a relatively "friendly" power while ignoring a recently defeated but still highly dangerous "foe" (France) in an area they have little historic interest in. To build that "Navy" they will end up having to make many of the same choices that England does which means a very small and far less effective Army.]]

Randy

 

[hirsch91]

My WW1 knowledge is a bit rusty so please correct me if I'm wrong.
Why would Bismarck want to antagonize Britain needlessly?
How does Willy know about submarines? His brother Henry was a naval officer so if anything he should know about developments in the navy. But still in the 1800s, submarines were nothing but a curiosity so why would they pour resources into them? And all those battleships produced will be rendered obsolete once Britain launches the dreadnoughts.
Germany outproducing Britain in terms of ships in any time line post 1815 is ASB. Britain had the expertise as well as skilled laborers to outproduce Germany. Also, the British comfortably held the 2-1 ratio once they realized Germans want to surpass the royal navy.
There are no good colonies left in 1898. Also, Germany IOTL would have saved a lot of money and resources if it didn't have any colonies.
If Germany pours resources into the navy, the spending for land army would need to be reduced drastically. Considering Germans were already outnumbered IOTL, a reduction of the land army would not bode well for them.

This sounds like a Kaiser wank with all their enemies being mentally handicapped.

 

[jlckansas]

You have no way of going Navy before Army at this time because the real enemy of Germany is Russia. You cannot have a bigger Navy without cutting the army and for you idea it would be some serious cuts in the Heer at this time.
German ships in 1914 don't have the legs to blockade France even if they had a port in Belgium. German ships of that time could barely be in the North sea for a day or two without having to be back in port. You would have to have the HSF be composed of totally different ship designs to have anything more than a quick raid to the coast of England, attacking Scapa would be pushing it if not actually be impossible because of their short legs.
Germany starting building in 1902 still keeps the UK ahead, especially because of your "India and the Boers revolt in 1907". Boers would be no problem for the UK to handle and India in 1907 would need a reason to revolt, even Congress at that time was not wanting that to happen. It takes multiple years to build a BB or BC, at least 3 to 5 years depending on class and how many you are building.
You also have the Japanese taking all of the German possessions in the Pacific and there is nothing the Germans could do about if, they have no power projection at the time to sail half way around the world, See Russian Fleet 1905.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

The point is not how they did it, that's not why i made the scenario

I'm afraid it is.

There are two questions that invariably arise in these scenarios: -

1. What has country A had to give up in order to advance in a completely different arena to OTL i.e. how many German army corps are missing from the 1914 OOB due to resources, including manpower, being diverted to the HSF?
2. What does country B do when country A poses a different, even existential, threat to OTL, especially in an area where country B is leading the world in terms of numbers and technological advances?

More prosaic questions, such as who negotiates away their colonies to Germany (and increases the draw on the Kaiser's wallet, and why would France & Russia (especially the latter) become allies if Germany isn't the leading land power in Western & Central Europe, can be addressed elsewhere.

It also makes it difficult to answer "what if" with so little detail provided. A list of wet dreams doesn't really cut it.

 

[MadHatter]

"High Seas Fleet" which is what Imperial Germany called the Navy

Ra

thx

 

[Garrison]

The point is not how they did it, that's not why i made the scenario

It very much matters when you are choosing to post the idea in a forum where plausibility counts.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

I can see scenarios where the Kriegsmarine exceeds the Royal Navy but this is not one of them

I could contrive a scenario where Germany ends up with a slight advantage in modern capital ships at the start of WWI, and then from there where Britain takes enough wartime losses for Germany to maintain that lead after the war and has enough political unrest that Germany can keep a slight lead long term. But that's basically depending on some very tight timing, the dreadnought revolution going different and political fun times in the UK to wind up with say having 22 modern Capital ships to 24 for Germany on 1 September 1914, and almost inevitably would have the situation reverse in the near future

One could also write enough of a Brit screw TL where the Brits are screwed up enough that they can't maintain a lead over Germany, how quickly that takes effect depends on how much plausibility you want, more plausible the longer the wait, the farther back the POD the more plausible as well

There is also the mainstay of the British lose WWI, and enough postwar issues lead to them eventually falling behind the Germans but that's basically just a Brit-screw

 

[Elfwine]

One could also write enough of a Brit screw TL where the Brits are screwed up enough that they can't maintain a lead over Germany, how quickly that takes effect depends on how much plausibility you want, more plausible the longer the wait, the farther back the POD the more plausible as well

It seems like a Brit screw on that level would have fascinating and major impacts on the international situation in general - if Britain is struggling so badly it becomes only the second strongest naval power in Europe, would any of the other powers ignore that when it comes to wars and alliances?