As you will see from my reply, I’ve spent some time cogitating on this WI. I’m not wedded to the conclusions I draw, especially as I’m sure I’ve neglected some factors that will affect the outcome… And I ask many more questions than I have answers for.
Anyhoo, enjoy another tuppence’s worth:
According to Walker, an equally important factor was his attempt to increase Northumbrian taxes to the samelevel as in the rest of England (hitherto they had been lower). But he did it only after ten years on the job, when his position semed secure.
For sure.
There were three main factors that intersected and overlapped to create the volatile situation in Northumbria in October 1065.
First: As incomplete as
Domesday Book is, it shows quite clearly that Northumbria was the poorest of the big three earldoms by a considerable margin. Tostig’s income, via the earl’s third penny which no matter how zealously enforced, was always going to be limited. The (attempted) increase in Northumbrian taxes – from roughly 4d per carucate/hide to the same yield of 2s per hide/carucate in the rest of England – was always going to provoke a response. (My assumption is the difference in yield would have gone into Tostig’s pocket.) But did Tostig only attempt to raise taxes towards the end of his governance? His need for ‘cash’ – maintaining 200+ huscarls is not cheap – would have been obvious from day one.
Second: Tostig’s failure to defend the north against the Scot’s. No reprisal was undertaken for the loss of Cumbria
c.1061.
Third: Antagonistic relations with Northumbrian aristocracy. Two leading thegns (Gamel and Ulf – who through blood and marriage were of Bamburgh) were murdered in Tostig’s hall at York in 1063. Which leads back to my point about the assassination of Cospatric being the final straw.
Although my earlier thoughts need to be tweaked in light of actors and agency – for example, while Hardraada had a claim to the throne of England, would he have pursued it without Tostig being in his ear?
I think it would be more accurate to say that Tostig was Edith’s favourite brother. And because she was the Confessor’s wife, that favouritism may have influenced the king’s ‘judgement’ about the various Godwinesons.
Cospatric’s assassination at the king’s Christmas court was planned by Edith because it was thought to benefit Tostig. Leaving aside the questions of How? And of Who? Lets look at Why?
Why would Cospatric’s assassination benefit Tostig? Pure speculation on my part but I think Tostig had so alienated the Northumbrian aristocracy, achieving the remarkable feat of uniting the Anglo-Danes of Yorkshire and Bernican rump of Bamburgh, that they had been planning since the murders of Gamel and Ulf to take some kind of action. The first step was to petition the king. Cospatric was about to lay bare before the king and witan the extent of Tostig’s misrule… So, would Tostig taking up Wessex and relinquishing Northumbria scupper Cospatric’s mission? Probably, which means he isn’t assassinated in December 1064 and the OTL Northumbrian revolt is delayed. Yes, delayed.
If so, who is lkely to get Northumbria?
Thanks to Tostig’s pre-eminence as the earl of Wessex, the new earl of Northumbria confirmed at the Christmas witan is his crony Copsi. While only a minor Yorkshire thegn, which would undoubtedly upset most of the greater families of Northumbria, his appointment has a certain logic in that being Tostig’s deputy he has a familiarity with the ‘workings’ of the earldom.
Is Copsi’s rule going to be any different to what Tostig’s was? Does his association with Tostig mean that he is viewed with suspicion, regardless of what he does? Just to pile speculation upon speculation upon speculation. The Northumbrians will get more of the same from Copsi so the question is, how long does he last? (As an aside, OTL, the Conqueror appointed Copsi to Northumbria in March 1067 – he lasted six weeks before being killed by Oswulf, the ranking scion of Bamburgh.) How much of a grace period does he get? And what form does the reaction against Copsi take?
I mentioned actors and agency but let’s put aside some hothead taking matters into their own hand and that the cooler heads ensure they will go with the plan previously agreed upon with regards to Tostig, that is, to petition the king. And for argument’s sake, we’ll give Copsi twelve months grace which means come December 1065, a delegation from Northumbria arrive at the Christmas witan. What happens now?
Does Edith intervene? Does Tostig intervene? His pride is on the line. Copsi is his man, his creation even. And if the delegation does speak, who knows what they will say? Will they talk of only Copsi’s misrule? Or will they speak of the previous earl as well? Worst case scenario the delegation is murdered out of hand before appearing before the witan – revolt will follow. The delegation speaks but their suit is rejected out of hand – revolt will likely follow.
If one accepts that the decline and eventual death of the Confessor came about because of the ‘result’ of the Northumbrian revolt, would any delay of said revolt benefit the Old English state? Mayhap if it allows an older Edgar atheling to succeed his great uncle.
OTOH, any revolt that does take place is likely to degenerate into civil war. A civil war that sees significant clashes given the personalities of the Confessor and Tostig. A civil war that leaves the Old English state in an even more perilous position than on the eve of the conquest OTL.
I cannot see Tostig becoming king due to a deathbed wish of the Confessor. Or why Tostig’s claim of such a wish would be more credible than Harold’s OTL – then again stranger things have happened. Such was Tostig’s personality I harbour doubts that Gyrth and/or Leofwine would support their elder brother when push comes to shove. Which leads to the question, would William’s conquest be easier ITTL?
