KGV or Lions in response to ATL German BB

[Naval Aviation Fan]

My badd folks, I done went and did things wrong...

Again!

Let's just have the thread's OP and poll re-written to "The Scharnhorst class is announced to be 35,000 tons, with 8 X 15" guns", just like the historical Bismarck class was.

This way, we can have the discussion that I was really after.

I don't think that a change from the historical timeline of 2 pairs of German Battleships, one timeline in which the first pair were an abortion with 9 x 11" guns and only the second pair were 42,000 ton, 8 x 15" gunned ships would be completely different from a timeline where both pairs were built to the latter standard. To that end, let's look at what the UK did historically, and then adjust from there.

As @Gudestein pointed out previously, the historical Bismarck sat 2 meters deeper than she should have, but that only happened when she was completed, so in an ATL, where the Scharnhorst class ships are projected to be completed in Aug/Sep 1939, right at the very outset of the war (or near enough), the ships will be complete, but the crews will not have had a chance to start their shakedown cruises yet. We still see them off Norway, HMS Glorious and her two DD still have to meet their fate in June, 1940, but in this timeline, the Germans will have two operational BB in the war from the beginning, and not some disgraceful undergunned 11" gunned pretend BB.

So my questions would be:
1) When would the second pair be laid down, if the first pair are deliberately 'launched' ASAP, while the second pair take the exact time they did historically?
2) When would the butterflies start with the UK's building program, if the first two ships were thought to be 35,000 tons, but just with 8 X 15" guns?
3) If the Germans are thought to be abiding by TTL AGNA, at least until the first pair are completed (or possibly when launched), and someone looks at the hull dimensions and does the math, what are the likely RN Battleships likely to be in TTL?

So, first off, when should I put the first pair as being launched? I'm thinking that they should take a bit longer than the historical pair, as the ships are bigger/heavier, but at the same time, the Germans know that they could be found out at any time, and need to get the second pair started asap, and before they are discovered, so a less complete ship getting launched earlier, while less heavy means less weight, and more likely to go unnoticed, right?

Also, for this particular ATL, the Germans already have working 15" guns and the turrets to put them in, and not just a first early prototype, of either, but the how and why of which need to wait till my health improves.

I'm too tired to finish this post right now, need food amd a nap.

Ok, the internet ate my edit.

Arrrgh!

Edit two: Attempting for a second time to finish this post.

So, when would the notional 1935 ships get launched, and would anyone be the wiser, especially if they were launched when the ships would be so far from completion that they could be thought to be within the 35,000 ton range?

Secondly, when might the UK tumble to the fact that the German ships are not within the propourted tonnage limits? Will the UK build something different just because (ITTL) they fail to bully the Germans into building a pair useless Battleships with 11" guns, or would they alternately just build a pair of 8 x 15" gunned ships themselves? This is my favorite way to introduce ATL British BB construction plans, as without proof that the first pair of German BB are over 35,000 tons displacement, we cannot justify bigger British ships, but with 8 x 15" guns on the German ships, can we get a pair of (HMS Vanguard-like) ships ordered alongside the 5 KGV class ships?

After all, if the RN did this, in 1937-1938, then from their own construction program, they surely would be more likely to look at what they are building, and compare their own new pair of ships to HMS Hood, and compare these with what the Germans are building, and then...

Thirdly, whenever we can all agree on a likely time of discovery, follow on construction will take place (at least to the tune of laying down some Lion class ships), but looking at the wiki, it said that the pair of Lion's actually laid down in 1938 were not going to be ready until 1943, which is far too long to wait for a counter to German BB's.

Anyway, let us hope the internet doesn't eat this second attempt to edit/finish this post.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Ok, so questions remain.

The Bismarck class design is 51 feet longer, and 20 wider than the S/G class, but remember, the twins were 3 triple 11" gun turrets historically, but 4 twin 15" guns turrets here.
The Bismarck class took as much as 51 months to build, but what part of that was due to delays in 15" guns and turrets? TTL Germany already has both guns and turrets.
The Bismarck class was never a repeat class OTL, but what time savings could be had, if ships three and four are repeats of already built designs?

Post #27 has the amended OP, and this post is to get things focused properly. My apologies for making a mess of the poll, because of a bad choice of wording.

For the British shipbuilding, my ongoing research has finally uncovered the laid down dates of the first (and only...?) pair of Lion class laid down. Previously I had thought they had been laid down sometime in 1938, but it turns out that they were ordered in 1938, but not laid down till June 1st, and July 4th, 1939, and with the new triple 16" guns/turrets, wouldn't have been ready until 1943 at the soonest.

There are no new 15" guns being built, and no triple turrets for them, either, so any newly designed 15" guns will delay British BB production, and the 16" guns under development are not going to be ready until 1943 as noted above, what therefore are the British to do?

Historically, on Oct 2nd, 1941, the British laid down a single Vanguard class BB. This ship was not a priority, though, and so didn't commision until 1946. The vital statistics were:

4 x twin 15" gun turrets, on 44,500 tons, @30kts. As I understand this, there were enough 15" guns and twin turrets for one (or two) such ships sitting around unused prewar.
One question I have is, just how long would new twin 15" gun turrets take to build, if they were exact copies of the guns and turrets no most British capitol ships left after the WNT? My idea would be to restart such gun/turret production, while building 6 Vanguard class ships, and to swap the guns/turrets off the old

21 kts, 29,500 ton Revenge class ships, and installing them on the new
30 kts, 44,500 ton Vanguard class ships as soon as they are ready,
and then, when the newly built guns/turrets are done, put the 'R' class back into service?

For the 14" gunned KGV's, just when the decision is made, and how far advanced they are in construction, would determine whether switching from 2.5 quad 14" gun turrets, to 3 quad 14" gun turrets would result in delays.