Yes, because the Soviets weren't as bad in comparison, and because the Soviets were a necessary ally. The Japanese ITTL though, are not useful to anyone, are blatantly defying the U.S and the U.K, and there is no conflict present or imminent where the Japanese would really be able to help.
Kalter Krieg - a TL of a three way cold war
- Thread starter MSZ
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I'm wondering what the fate of China will be. But that can wait, civil war takes time. I'm also wondering what will the effects be on Japan's society and government- the end of the Showa period in atomic flames was really traumatic. This seems more like a Treaty of Versailles-type brokered peace, and will only embolden imperialists in the long run. Finally, I'm curious to see if the League of Nations will linger on in complete anemia. I suppose without an actual second Great War, there's no need to replace it with anything.
iddt3
Donor
Actually the opposite is true, they're a useful counterbalance to the USSR for the US and the UK, but only as long as they retain some credence as a great power.
As to my prior points, this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petlyakov_Pe-8 is the Soviets best bomber without the captured B-29s they got OTL. They built 93 of them, and it's combat performance was less then impressive.
And this is what Americans were using http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_B-29_Superfortress. they built over 3000 of them, carried nearly twice the bomb load, carried it farther, higher, and dropped it more accurately, with better doctrine, which was still insufficient to cause the Japanese to surrender. The Japanese did not surrender due to strategic bombing OTL. No country did. The Japanese still produce coal, and can run their merchant ships on it and do limited coal to oil conversions. An armistice in place is possible, but the idea of the Soviets forcing substantial reparations on japan and allowing communists to run in open elections is... well not ASB but certainly straining the bounds of plausibility.
So, the slow pull into different blocks is coming together. Will the US be in the democratic block, or lead a independant non-aligned block?
True, the Soviets weren't seen as a great military power at this time, and Japan would be seen as a better ally. Until the USSR would have kicked their asses in record time. Like in The Red's 'Storm in the East' TL, the Japanese would have been easily crushed in Manchuria with the majority of the Kwantung Army in China, though Sakhalin probably would have fallen to the Japanese, I will concede that. Still, the Japanese would have no credence as a great power with practically all their ground forces in mainland Asia gone in such a short time.
Yes, Japan did last for a long time OTL, but that wasn't when armies weren't literally bumrushing Japanese lands in Korea and China. With those gone in such a short time, and the Japanese not even getting the resources they would have in OTL by taking Indonesia and Indochina, they literally can't fight on unless they want some sort of Downfall-like scenario that would have at worst ended in the almost complete destruction of the Japanese people. All in all, the Japanese got off rather lightly here, as it says the Communists don't have any real power there anyway.
iddt3
Donor
Well that's my point, the USSR can win on land, but they cannot force the victory home, due to doctrine, tech and simple logistics. What he can do is kick the Japanese off of the mainland, then basically offer an armistice in place. Given that the Japanese didn't surrender in OTL when they were literally being starved to death slowly, and burned alive en masse, when the USSR can do neither of these things. The Japanese surrendered because the alternative was annihilation, and while the terms the USSR is offering aren't quite that drastic, coming from the USSR they will be even more objectionable, given the ruling clique's fear of communism.
Eh, a good point, though I can still see that with the threat of constant bombardment of mainland Japan and the utter annihilation of his people, the Emperor and the rest of the ruling class might make sense and surrender, if only out of fear. It's not strictly impossible, as the circumstances of Japans surrender in OTL are much different here. There's no actual Soviet occupation force, and the participation of the Communist party is in name only. Even the Japanese Communists won't try for an armed revolt against the Emperor. So all things considered, the Japanese got off much easier than in OTL, so it's better that they surrendered here.
Really? As far I know, Japan kept up steady lines of supply to Korea and Manchuria 'til the Soviets invaded in '45. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I'm sure that's the case here.
iddt3
Donor
I was under the impression that they were effectively cut off in '45, due to not having a merchant fleet anymore. I'd look it up but I'm posting from my cell phone (If I post any bizarre non sequiturs you can blame my autocorrect) .
Shuttling back and forth the few miles between the closest bits of Korea and Japan can get the most out of what very minimal shipping they had left. They can, I believe, make a round trip under cover of darkness. this means one ship can carry an order of magnitude more supplies than from e.g. Taiwan let alone elsewhere. Plus it's less likely to be hit from the air.
Yes, Chiang will definitely get more support, and I think moreso the US will be sending a lot more arms here.
MSZ
Banned
That was more less my line of thought - no unconditional surrender is what brings the Japanese to the table.
They weren't - in fact, when it comes to "reasons for Japanese surrender" the attack on Manchuria and its imminent loss is what pushed the Emperor to give up. People tend to forget just how important Manchuria ws for Japan - it's not called the "Chinese Canada" for nothing. Manchukuo provided Japan with a lot of necessary resources, which were shipped to mainland Japan almost to the end of the war. You can check Japanese statistics on domestic production, even modern ones - Japan had to (and still has to) import everything that was essential and it got most of it through the war from captured territories. Without Manchuria and Dutch East Indies it is "resource empty". It has some coal, yes - IIRC its production covered about 30% of consumption. There were also no synthetic fuel production plants in Japan (IG Farben sold them the technology very late in the war).
He didn't get it OTL, when the need for stopping the USSR was greater than ITTL (no war in Europe). OTL the Kuomintang were subjects to an embargo by the USA. No reason relations being better here.
Here is the next part. Weekend is here, I will try to post something more before it ends.
The Civil War in China, which started due to the war-time communist and nationalist allies being unable to form a united government to rule China, begun in favor for the Nationalists. With the Japanese Army leaving China in a hurry, the local militias of Maoists took control over the abandoned territory including many major cities. Occasional clashes between the arriving nationalists and already entrenched communists had mixed results, with a number of cities falling to the Kuomintang. In an attempt to ensure that the communists are allowed to obtain firm control over captured territory, Stalin demanded that Chiang does not replace the already present ‘administration’ with his loyalists, threatening to pull his support in peace talks – including allowing Taiwan to remain in Japanese hands. This threat was enough to keep Chiang from forcibly removing Mao’s supporters from power for the time when the talks took place. This included many coastal ports where supplies for China from the west arrived – and were seized by the local militias. When the war started, not only was Chiang prevented from accessing many sea ports – he had to face an organized army, supplied extensively by the USSR with a lot territory already protected by the Red Army.
Chiang Kai Shek and Mao Zendong together during the negotiations of the treaty of Vladivostok.
After signing the peace treaty with Japan, and with his forces still possessing a narrow superiority in numbers, Chiang decided that allowing the communists to further grow in strength was pointless. Attempts to form coalitions between the KMT and the CPC at local level administration ended up in failures, with the use of both police and military force being necessary. After talks were broken down, the Kuomintang held a massive attack on communist strongholds throughout the country. Mao’s forces utilized delaying tactics, withdrawing from cities to preserve their numbers and pleading Stalin for supplies. Stalin’s benevolence came at a price of course – the USSR was allowed to annex both Tuva and Uyghuria, as well as obtaining a protectorate over Korea. Though the Red Army did withdraw from north eastern China, it did not leave Manchuria. The USSR had recognized Manchukuo in the past and sought to incorporate it into itself as another SSR, should the government in China prove stubborn. As that seemed to be the case with Mao, Stalin had a puppet government installed in the “Democratic People’s Republic of Manchuria”, alongside the “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” – not excluding the possibility of them joining the USSR in the future. While full incorporation of either of them was not what Stalin sought in the first place, he did not exclude that as a possibility. For him, a disunited China with a Communist regime in the north and a nationalist one in the south would be the best outcome, as such a Maoist state constantly threatened by the Kuomintang would be easy to control. A united communist China would be more difficult, but with Manchuria in Soviet hands, it was believed control over the province could be used as a tool of manipulating Mao. Being the leader of a great power for over two decades, he no longer was the ideologically driven revolutionary and exercised his policies adequately. Mao on the other hand knew that what he already had to give up – overlordship over Korea, Uyghuria and Tuva – was in fact just another “unequal treaty” which led to the downfall of Chinese monarchs in the past. Losing Manchuria would be a great dishonor, one he could not allow. Expecting that his position in talks with Stalin would be strengthened after a victory over the nationalists, Mao limited himself to denying the DPRM legitimacy, declaring it to be an integral part of China and not being willing on talking on its status with the Russians.
Chinese soldiers fending of a KMT offensive with Russian Mosin-Nagant rifles
The first government offensive in 1946 was only a narrow tactical success. Chiang held a general full front invasion to the north-east, aiming at pushing the communists leadership to Soviet occupied Manchuria. With the northern border secured, Chiang hoped that he could deny communist sympathizers in the countries heartland access to guns and ammunition, arriving from the USSR. Without them, taking control over the coastal cities and hinterland would be a matter of time. The success was limited, as while the KMT was capable of driving the Communists out, they were forced to halt their advance at the Manchurian border, protected by the Red Army. Mao’s newly introduced strategy, one aimed at preserving his numbers – a lot of his troops escaped to Manchuria remaining mostly intact – proved fruitful. There, together with reinforcements from the former Kwantung Army, Japanese hardware seized by the Russians and their trainers and instructors they bided their time, waiting for the KMT army to either disperse or move south.
The government army faced many difficulties. After years of warfare their soldiers were very tired and lacking morale – Chiang’s many unpopular actions reduced the support he enjoyed. Hungry soldiers, whose wages could barely buy them rice would often sell their guns for food. Thus, quality arms obtained from Japan or Europe were lost and Chinese armories would empty soon. The common Chinese soldier was usually a peasant who had no idea what he was fighting for, lacking motivation and only wanting to go home. And so they did – desertions would be a common occurrence. Though Chiang was capable of gaining control over most urban areas, the hinterland remained beyond his grasp, as he did not have an effective administration there – the communist one being very good at hiding and surviving attacks against it. With his Army having moved out to the coast to take control over the cities there and secure foreign aid, the cities in the north and elsewhere would start to experience famine, due to the communists seizing control of farmlands and claiming food.
The Kuomintang Army recruits - the governmental army was mostly dependent on foreign hardware.
In 1947 the communist started their own offensive. Without the presence of the best nationalist divisions in the north, they managed to make it to the territories between Yangcy and the Yellow River by summer that year. Governmental forces began to experience heavy losses, desertions multiplied, and communist agents would subvert the government from within. The chief of the secret police Dai Li and other high ranking officials were assassinated, communist intelligence infiltrating the highest echelons of power granted Mao an enormous advantage. In order to repair the country’s finances, Chiang ordered a grand exchange of precious stones, metals and other valuables from the richest citizens for newly printed money, the plan ending in an economic fiasco. Aid from abroad could not meet the requirements and no other country was willing to commit ground troops to China – America remained isolationist, going so far as invoking the Neutrality Act’s to discourage the sale of arms and motor vehicles to China (though did not ban it); the UK and France were too involved in trying to warm relations with Russia to act against the communists; Germany was unwilling to send ground troops, even volunteers, so far where it couldn’t realistically provide for them, though it did introduce numerous instructors and advisors, including having Alexander von Falkenhausen return to Chiang Kai Shek’s side. It also supplied the KMT army with many of its stockpiled, albeit at that time obsolete weaponry. None of this could however make much of a difference to the situation, which favored the numerous, disciplined and well provided communists.
Chinese offensive, Soviet provided tanks visible.
In autumn 1948 Mao began his next offensive, known as Huai-Hai. It proved to be another great success, the governmental army losing altogether 39 divisions. Desperate, Chiang would beg the LoN and other powers for aid, but apart from the fascist powers in Europe he was denied it. The situation for him looked so bleak that even the west stopped to believe he would be capable of defeating the reds, much less pay off what he already owed them – neither France or UK could finance his war further. By January 1949 the communists gained control of Beiping which they took without firing a shot after the capitulation of the city’s general Fu Zuoyi. On April, the state’s official capital of Nanjing would be captured as well.
The Communists entering Beiping
Chiang would retreat further south to Canton, which came under attack in July, falling in October. With the war on the mainland seemingly lost, a grand evacuation to Taiwan was held, to where over 2 million people, among them veteran governmental troops, much of countries wealth, both monetary and cultural would move. Other islands of the Chinese coast would be secured as well, though most of them would fall by the end of the year 1950. With no peace treaty between the two being signed, China remained disunited – with a nationalist Republic of China in Taiwan, and a People’s Republic of China (declared in 1949 following victory) on the Chinese mainland. The two states struggled for recognition, with the PRC being immediately recognized by the USSR, Mongolia, Korea and even Manchuria – though the PRC did not recognize the last one. The Republic of China remained recognized by the majority of the world, including preserving its seat at the League of Nations.
Mao Zendong proclaiming the formation of the People's Republic of China
The victory of the CPC was mostly the result of a massive advantage in firepower, especially artillery which the USSR supplied from its stockpiles. These cannons, often dating back to the Great War, while obsolete by modern standards were still a great boon, as the other side either lacked it completely, or did not possess adequate amounts of ammunition – something Stalin would provide. Aid from abroad was limited, as it was Germany, not the USSR which was seen by many as the greatest threat, especially in France. These who believed so were willing to sacrifice China to secure an alliance with the USSR, and for that reason did not want to anger it by opposing the communists in China. Britain was more realistic in regard to the consequences of a Red China, but lacked the means to turn the tide of the war – it was not willing to enter a war production mode, nor indebt itself for China’s sake. Dumping old weaponry onto China, much like the Soviet Union, was a way for the British to both feel good about themselves, as they were “doing something” and not having to sacrifice much. Although the USA felt humiliated by not being able to participate in establishing the new order in the far east, they did not take much action in the Civil War, as a result of President’s Henry A. Wallace’s policies. Wallace believed that both the American and the Russian revolution were part of "the march to freedom of the past 150 years." and in general felt more sympathetic to the communists than the ‘fascists’ – a term by which he would label many. That relations between the US and the CPC were carried out mostly through Molotov or other Soviet dignitaries, allowing their charm to work – the Chinese pro-KMT lobby in Washington would find a lot of their efforts subverted by Soviet diplomatic work. America’s official policy remained that of isolationism, and just as Woodrow Wilson had failed to bring the US out of it after the Great War, his successors returning to concentrating on internal matters, so would FDR not manage to break his country out of it either, Wallace being convinced that American interests in Asia would be preserved, or even allowed to expand, as Molotov would often suggest expanding Soviet-American trade, without having to get involved in the reignited conflict. Chiang himself was also much responsible for his failure. He felt no friendliness towards the west or the Axis, and saw them as pursuing imperialist motives in China. He did not want to be subordinate to either of them, but jockeyed for position between the two to avoid taking sides and to get the most out of German and western relationships.
POTUS Henry A. Wallace with Soviet envoy Andrei Gromyko.
Germany was quick to switch sides in the Sino – Japanese competition. It benefited from the Japanese failure in that after the ceasefire it persuaded them to surrendering many of their vessels – both military and civilian – to Germany, on the promise they would be returned in the future. The Japanese accepted it, as the alternative was either scuttling them or giving to the communists as part of the peace treaty. Japanese ships would change their flags and be manned with a small number of German sailors, evacuating these ships to Europe, under the guise of Germany having bought them. In the future however, it would not stick to that promise on the basis that the new government would not stop them from falling in Russian or Chinese hands, as it was forced into collaboration. German interest in the far east did not involve Japan in specific, they involved an ally capable of both stemming communist expansion as well possibly striking against the USSR. Before strengthening ties with Japan, Germany was heavily involved in China and Generalissimos Chiang. The Sino-Japanese war stopped that, but with it having ended, there was no longer any reason for it not to return – Japan was out of the far eastern equation anyway. Germany would thus come back to Chiang to renew the Sino-German cooperation, initially with little success. China was simply too suspicious of Germany, and more importantly, scared of the USSR to go any further, preferring to maintain its ties with the western allies who too were opposed to a return of German influence in the region. Germany would fail in Europe in this regard as well – diplomatic attempts at forming a second “Eight Nation Coalition” to aid the Kuomintang against the CPC were laid on deaf ears, preserving friendly ties with the USSR being more important to Paris, an intervention too risky for Britain. It would take some time before Chiang would eventually change his mind and allow for German instructors to return, granting him also access to German-sent equipment. This however happened too late and was too little to change the overall outcome of the war.
The war in the Far East revealed many weaknesses of the Axis Powers, primarily its complete lack of blue water capability. The Land –Sea Power Dichotomy was an axiom of German military strategy, leading to the Kriegsmarine being significantly underfunded for years. Though concept plans for the construction of a powerful fleet were made, and the keels of many ships which were meant to instill fear in the Royal Navy were laid down, lack of funds and resources led to constant delays and changes in plans. With military spendings under Goring falling overall, the Navy suffered the most, being left with mostly obsolete vessels. In 1942, The Kriegsmarine had only 16 major warships, most of which were simple cruisers build in the 20’s, and barely 26 destroyers, most of which were only slightly more modern. The German merchant fleet did fare better, but not enough to meet the political needs. When supplying Japan with necessary goods after the introduction of the embargo became a topic on Goring’s cabinet meeting, Germany had to realize it simply did not have the means to launch necessary convoys. It’s land oriented strategy turned against itself, as launching new ships was simply not necessary with most of its trade being done by rail, or cargo being carried by vessels flying a different flag. The possibility of moving products by land so far east was impossible, as the USSR refused to allow for the use of the Trans-Siberian Railway, and alternative routes through Turkey, Persia, Afghanistan and China were impossible for technical reasons – lack of roads, railways or political consent from the countries where Britain maintained strong influence. There were also no planes capable of flying so far. Germany’s ability to operate as a Great Power outside Europe was proven to be extremely limited, much as predicted my senior Navy officers since even the time before the Great War.
To remedy the situation, Germany made two moves, apart from taking control over a part of the Japanese fleet. Firstly, it attempted to hastily gather up the necessary ships by closing down operational sea routes, redirecting capable ships to the trans-oceanic voyages. It also enlisted the aid of Italy, which possessed a significant fleet a well, though it wasn’t too eager to sacrifice its ongoing trade to save Japan, granting Germany only limited aid, mostly by chartering newly constructed vessels. With both the Suez and Panama Canal closed for voyages heading for Japan, European relief was forced to take a longer route, crossing the southern Atlantic and going round Cape Horn, Argentina and Uruguay being the only countries whose ports would accept German ships. Secondly, after years of pleas and requests, and thanks to the canceling of the Anglo-German Naval treaty, the wishes of the German Navy would be fulfilled by the introduction of a complete plan of expanding the fleet. The plan aimed at the construction of a mixed fleet of various surface ships and a smaller U-Boat fleet, quite similar to the Imperial Navy in the Great War or the British Royal Navy, though the reality of it being possible to complete were questioned from the beginning. It did nevertheless push forward the completion of those ships which were already under construction, though not fast enough for them to take any role in Japan’s war. By 1947, Germany launched the battleships Bismarck and Tirpitz, the largest European war vessels, as well as the aircraft carriers Graf von Zeppelin and Peter Strasser, the Reich’s first modern aircraft carriers. Their actual combat value was still significantly reduced by the lack of escort ships, limiting their usefulness.
The KMS Graf Zeppelin anchored in Wilhelmshaven
The main political problem the German Navy faced, and which was the reason for the many difficulties its development had gone through was its actual value in German strategic planning. Being surrounded by other countries, maintaining a strong land army was a priority, construction of a fleet often seen as a drain of funds, especially given the experiences of the great war which the Hochseeflotte spent mostly in ports engaging the enemy only once in an undecided battle. The admirals contested that view pointing out that Germany would need a strong fleet for two reasons – preventing a British naval blockade, which was one of the causes why Germany lost the Great War, as well as increasing its power projection capability beyond Europe. Both these arguments were again countered by skeptics – it could not be expected that Britain would ignore the enlargement of the German Navy, hence any plans of “matching” the Royal Navy to break a blockade would de facto mean an arms race in ships, one in which Britain was better prepared for. Thus unless the Kriesmarine gained a decisive advantage over the British – which was doubtful – it would be forced to restricting itself to the North Sea and the Baltic, waters which could be controlled just as well by the Luftwaffe. Power projection via sea power would also be pointless, as the countries on which Germany would have the most interest projecting its power onto were reachable by land. The solutions proposed were either in a buildup of submarines – as the Great War had proven them to be the most effective tool in damaging the British fleet – or in the construction of a fleet of smaller vessels, like the “pocket battleships” or small aircraft carriers, which would be much less pricy, yet still capable of granting the Reich the ability to act across oceans, projecting its power when a blockade was not in progress. The second view would eventually come to be accepted. Thus the large battleships and carriers launched in the 40’s would become the first and last of their kind.
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Okay, I guess a repeat of history here is pretty much inevitable. Though I do like the Soviets playing the PRC by keeping Manchuria separate, with designs of possibly annexing it in the future. I'm also interested to see alternate ROC on Taiwan develop since presumably Nazi Germany is its main patron. Could the ROC have perhaps held on to Hainan as well in this timeline? That's a scenario that's been brought multiple times in the past:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=33624
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=222090
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=25156
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=896676&postcount=4
Great coverage on the development of the Kriegsmarine, it's technical details like that which allow this timeline to shine. It really feels like a cold war.
Definitely interested in the fate of the U.S., as well. And the rest of the 'West.' Come to think of it, I almost wonder if the Allies will end up being like the Non-Aligned Movement! The capitalist powers are sidelined while the aggressive fascists and communists square off. There's a lot of issues to consider, such as what of decolonization? What happens if the massive destruction caused in WWII never happens?
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=33624
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=222090
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=25156
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=896676&postcount=4
Great coverage on the development of the Kriegsmarine, it's technical details like that which allow this timeline to shine. It really feels like a cold war.
Definitely interested in the fate of the U.S., as well. And the rest of the 'West.' Come to think of it, I almost wonder if the Allies will end up being like the Non-Aligned Movement! The capitalist powers are sidelined while the aggressive fascists and communists square off. There's a lot of issues to consider, such as what of decolonization? What happens if the massive destruction caused in WWII never happens?
The population of Manchuria at this time is over thirty million. I suspect it's simply too big to annex outright by the USSR.
MSZ
Banned
Glad you asked the question about Hainan, since I was wondering that myself - it is why I didn't state what happened to it. Technically it is seperated by enough water to make an assault difficult and repellable - but the Nationalists didn't manage to hold onto it OTL. I honestly don't know why, which prevents me from giving an anwser to Hainan's fate. If it was poor command and lack of weapons, then perhaps holding onto it was possible for at least sometime. However, 30 km is enough for heavy artillery to reach it, so any stationary coastal defenses would be destroyed eventually. Withdrawing and keeping an army deeper in the island, using it to push any landing party back to the sea might be a more sound strategy - but would also make it a competition in firepower, a naval assault unit could probably entrench itself and hide behind mainland artillery fire, waiting for reinfocements. So the best defense here would be offense - destroying anything the Communists might use against Taiwan the moment it is deployed and spotted. THAT in turn would require really good reconnaissance and accurate artillery - smart missiles could do it, but traditional howtizers? Not certain.
I'd suppose that granted sufficent man and firepower, combined with good comunications and defense coordination (radios, a centralized defense HQ, accurate anti-ship artillery or planes) Hainan might hold for some time, but I wouldn't bet on it. The mainland would be within line-of-sight range from the island I think, so tactical surprise is unlikely, except maybe at night; strategic surprise can be prevented by a constant high alert level. It didn't hold OTL though, so unless the German instructors and equipment are exactly what the Nationalists would need to hold it, its still going to fall...
America remains isolationist - for now. You know, it is really difficult to write about ATL USA without World War 2 - everything that happened in the mid 40's and 50's seems so connected with the coldwar, imagining what it would be if that cold war wouldn't reach it and the USA would not participate is difficult. I went with Henry Wallace becoming president since FDR's fourth term seems unlikely without a war, as is Truman becoming Vice-president. The democrats would be popular enough to win that election still though, I think. I'm going to do domething on the USA in the future.
And decolonization is going to be one of the topics I will try to cover intensly. Seeing that OTL a lot of post-colonial countries ended up with a regime which could be taken for a 'fascist' one, this ideology is likely to find some fertile ground here and there. You guessed it right with Taiwan being one, though not necessarly forever - geography doesn't favor the Germans in the Pacific.
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MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Because America remained isolationist, would the Philippines in this case be granted independence a lot sooner?
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