John VI of Portugal isn't poisoned?

[Vinization]

John VI ruled Portugal during an extremely difficult period, during which the country was wracked by foreign threats and internal crises he had no hope of subduing with the resources he had. He faced a Spanish invasion, a French one (which prompted his and the court's flight to Brazil), a liberal revolution that forced him to return home, Brazilian independence and two coup attempts led by his absolutist son Dom Miguel.

Finally, he was assassinated via arsenic poisoning in March 1826. Portugal was, not long after, wracked by a six year civil war between Dom Miguel's supporters and those of Maria II, who eventually won.

So what if John either avoided being poisoned, or survived? He was neither a liberal nor a hardline absolutist from what I know, so how could Portuguese politics develops if he lives, say, 10 years longer (which would put his date of death sometime in 1836)?

@Lusitania @RedAquilla

 

[Vinization]

What sort of activities could Portugal embark upon that don't involve beating itself senseless? The loss of Brazil is bound to affect its economy in a very bad way.

 

[RedAquilla]

John VI living longer probably leads to a Portuguese Constitutional Charter different than the one Portugal got OTL. He was preparing it before he died so I think that's assured. I think he would try to solve the succession problem and I'm inclined to think he would choose Maria II as his heir, he was tired of Miguel and more importantly of his wife Carlota Joaquina. But he could also go with Miguel.

No Civil War means less debt, fewer deaths, less power for the army and with a King with a sizable authority like John VI, there will be more stability. This likely means Portugal cuts off a few decades of lack of development and likely can focus on its Empire sooner.

 

[Vinization]

John VI living longer probably leads to a Portuguese Constitutional Charter different than the one Portugal got OTL. He was preparing it before he died so I think that's assured. I think he would try to solve the succession problem and I'm inclined to think he would choose Maria II as his heir, he was tired of Miguel and more importantly of his wife Carlota Joaquina. But he could also go with Miguel.

No Civil War means less debt, fewer deaths, less power for the army and with a King with a sizable authority like John VI, there will be more stability. This likely means Portugal cuts off a few decades of lack of development and likely can focus on its Empire sooner.

I suppose Maria II will become queen once he dies, right? I wonder if Portugal could get the Pink Map in this scenario.

 

[ToasterOven456]

I suppose Maria II will become queen once he dies, right? I wonder if Portugal could get the Pink Map in this scenario.

With the extra time they can spend focusing on the empire, they could have a probable shot at taking it, though it also could just lead to an escalation of tensions between Britain and Portugal

 

[unprincipled peter]

amongst his woes was his wicked Queen wife, who plotted against him almost from the beginning, even before the Peninsular War. Wouldn't be at all surprised if she was involved in his death.

He was a mixed results King. I can't fault him for the Peninsular War, as he was between a rock and a hard place. Both France and Britain were putting impossible to comply with demands on him. Portugal's main ally, Britain, was almost as bad for the country as their main foe, France. His only hope of treading water during those years was Spain's handling of France, but Spain was woefully inept. I'm a firm believer that had Napoleon not decided to invade Spain, Portugal might have been spared. The goal of moving all those French troops east was Spain, with Portugal just being the excuse/bonus.

He handled the situation better than most would have. Whether going gungho prepping Brazil to be an equal partner in the Empire was a good idea is debatable. Once he set down that road, though, he fumbled the ball. He just sat around for several years after the war was over, leaving Portugal adrift, setting the stage for Portugal to rebel. Stripped of power, he was forced back to Portugal, where he again rose to the occasion, and regained power. In the meantime, Brazil was lost. Then, before he could set Portugal on a new path, he was murdered.

Had he not been killed, I think you see Portugal start off its new life on much better footing. Miquel remains in exile. An heir is named and groomed. Negotiations with Pedro over the heir may lead to better relations with Brazil. This may manifest in support during the Cisplatine War and/or continued economic relations between Brazil and colonial Angola. Butterflying the succession crisis/civil war means Pedro remains in Brazil. Or, who knows, maybe Pedro abdicates Brazil to go straight to the Portuguese throne when Joao dies of natural causes. Portugal has smoother sailing into this new era.

I would not expect Portugal to do miraculously better, though. It was a country long past its prime and was not in much position to regain much relevance in the world order. Ironically, Joao living another decade may have more noticeable effect on Brazil than on Portugal.