What would have made the war winnable? If the Confederacy had made a mad rush to attack D.C. and grab the federal government?
Washington in 1861 as with 1814 was not a five hundred plus year old capital like many in Europe where there is so much psychological attachment to it that wars end the second they are taken by an opposing army.
But, you are correct that it is possible. But, I would argue it required politics in the North coming apart as in Congress and the President prioritizing their battles with one another over the military one in front of them. In my view the North would have had to have shot themselves in the foot and perhaps the leg too a few times to make defeat plausible which nations at war have done more then once in the past.
You would need more people than just Davis to have a different mindset than OTL. But my read is that the South's best chance of seceding would have been to
(1) not fire on Sumter and keep swallowing insult as long as necessary while the fait accompli gradually hardened. OTL many people realized that the war would probably be bloody and nasty and even many abolitionists and radicals counseled Lincoln against doing anything. Many northerners also thought it was bluff and the South would eventually fall apart and come running back with its tail between its legs but that a war would harden Southern sentiment against returning. The longer the South goes without a war, the more the enthusiasm for war for Union among the common northerner dies down. A very adroit Southern leader could be able to help things along by sending peace commissioners with ambiguous noises about possibly being willing to consider a return and then you keep finessing things along. 'We first want to see if the Crittenden amendments pass.' 'but what about Maryland' Delay, delay, delay. Or offer terms that are close to independence but that you claim aren't. "All we want is autonomy with the right to set our own tariffs, but we will remain under the Flag!"
(2) make noises for foreign consumption about being willing to consider emancipation of some kind, you just really want 'national liberation against Northern aggression.' That would make a huge difference in the UK attitude, potentially. The commitments could have lots of caveats or be relatively meaningless or after you've won independence you could just ignore them ( no plausible Confederate government could actually talk about emancipation and mean it, given the shocking realities of their attitudes about race). Along the same lines, don't deliberately withhold cotton as a weapon, not even a little bit. Act like you are a good international citizen of the British-led mercantile community just wanting to trade your cotton and those nasty Jonathans keep getting in the way of commerce. Try to give British and French capitalists a stake in your future by selling them future rights to cotton or taking out loans guaranteed with vast tracts of transmissippi land or something.
3) give more encouragement to the Vallandigham types by offering to negotiate a peaceable return and hint that Lincoln is the obstacle. Or engineer for negotiations to fail but in a way that you can point fingers at Lincoln.. Again would have to be adroit and would require finesse, but it could be done.
Lincoln correctly recognized that he was engaged in a politico-military struggle. Southern leadership labored under the delusion that they were in a military struggle.
1 the south dose not attack fort Sumter Lincoln does everything he can do to provoke the south until he invaded his own country . Union recruits aren’t plentiful in that time line (which I wish y’all would read it)
2 Given the needed time the csa stock piles on weapons,munitions and sells cotton exchanges it for war supplies. CSA government gives subsidies toward war industries as they are preparing for total war but the subsidies shall expire.
3 The CSA has a secret service do you harm to the Lincoln war machine before it begins. Judah Benjamin is the head of the Secret Service until hostilities begin. The CSA will purchase medical supplies, revolvers and rifles from northern businesses like in actual history until fort Sumter . They accuse Lincoln that he wishes to emancipate the slaves . At first only the Deep South is in the fight with upper south volunteers .
A copperhead rebellion would hurt more than it would help, imho.
You clearly have not read American alternative history what ifs
Book 📖. So hypothetical scenario it does contain a lot of historical points and it tells you the reality too. Well I’m not sure if I would favor a Confederate troops being their agents of course though. factories could be destroyed which would help the Cause .
1 Cobb refuses to attack fort Sumter and Lincoln simply bullies the south provokes it and finally invades with only the Deep South fighting . Virginia and the upper South are sympathetic to the Deep South and send volunteers and supplies,but they accept Lincoln Neutrality. The upper south government is more willing to tolerate volunteers from the upper south for the confederacy then from the union and there are biased state laws.
2 The CSA Secret service fuel the anti war movement sabotaging the Lincoln war machine before it even begin and they could unify and strengthening the copperhead movement .
3 Given the time the south proceeded to buy up weapons from the north particularly Colt weapons. The south has sufficient time to prepare for total war .Kentucky and northern farmers sell food to the confederates so they may stockpile.
1861 Cobb revolution. Before fighting broke out New York city under massive bribery secedes From NEW York state declaring a tariff free City . The copperhead forces effectively take control of the forts and ships and customs. After war breaks out is declared New York city quickly re-join the NY under full pardon from wrongdoing
Union General Lee after heavy losses against Beauregard‘s fortifications,fire ships Torpedos, and other devices takes Charleston and Savanna from the rebels. Union general who reluctantly accepted the rank of major General gives Chilverous Surrender Terms to captured confederate soldiers. During the siege he sent federal money 💰 to pay for Damages, proved conscientious about killing civilians and provided compensation to civilians harmed by war.
General Lee pushes back the Confederates winning battle after battle. Joseph Johnson decides to conduct a Fabian strategy this move importantly preserves the southern military and General Lee often is forced into many frontal assault killing many union soldiers,but winning battles . The csa with competent leadership motivate the CSA at a better rate then actual history allowing there forces not to give up.
The Confederates where losing the war right until Lincoln suspend habeas corpus under executive order and it becomes publicly known over Lincoln’s possibly illegal actions as president. Lincoln has no choice to suspend habeas corpus because confederate partisans are operating and in great numbers in DC itself and around the city. Union politicians are even assassinated During the event . Union general Robert E Lee compels with orders to withdraw union troops from Georgia to defend DC returns home with his southern troops and anyone who doesn’t want to fight in the war anymore. General Robert E Lee excepts the rank of major general for Virginia and latter the confederate army. Lee is primarily training troops while some veterans will be sent from the Deep South. General Robert E Lee though a former union general would encourage union veterans to join the southern cause General Bragg General of training soldiers also has train some of the Confederate troops if not many meaning The Confederates are well disciplined. General Robert E Lee also would’ve helped training these troops
Unlike an actual history The Confederate do not almost lose the battle of bull Run, Because Beauregard is not present. General Robert E Lee is instead the commanding general who works well with his good friend and colleague Joseph E Johnston. The confederates Keep strong defense and successfully counterattack the union forcing many of the raw panicked recruits to run like an actual history.
this book largely explains the failures of what the Confederates dead at the battle of bull run and many other civil war battles. General Robert E Lee successfully captures most of the union army ants in stonewall Jackson to first go to take Washington DC after a week they Confederates take DC. In a gesture of goodwill the Confederates return soldiers as well as captured union politicians after a little while passed. The Confederates and XTC as the Southern CSA capital. The Confederates release the prisoners and ask for an armistice. If the bluecoats refuse they will hold the capital hostage. (civil War very well could’ve ended under these terms that I have done) New York City’s declares separate from the union in protest of the armistice not being followed declaring at a free city. In 1862 Lincoln breaks the Peace talks
