Japan wins Battle of Midway, U.S. settles with Japan, U.S. helps to defeat Nazis by ‘44, but . . . long Cold War with Japan.

[Dancing Fool]

And I think this is perfectly appropriate for the day after Pearl Harbor Day (Dec. 7th), because it’s a way of looking what might have been,

had it not been for the skill, bravery, and dedication of our U.S. fighting men and women.

In the actual timeline, the U.S. won an electrifying victory against Japan — sinking 4 of their aircraft carriers at the cost of 1 of ours — and thereby clawed our way back to parity. And with our greater industrial might, we had the advantage going forward. Meaning, Admiral Yamamoto did not get the quick victory he knew he needed.

But what if Japan had won the Battle of Midway?

 

[Dancing Fool]

Station Hypo

“A message was sent out across the undersea cable instructing U.S. forces on Midway to send a false radio message in the clear stating that Midway’s fresh water system had malfunctioned.

“The Japanese took the bait and soon Hypo intercepted a Japanese message stating that “AF” was having trouble with its fresh water system.”

*************

“In the clear” means uncoded, and that’s the part which is too neat by half.

Japan could have sniffed it out.

And instead the U.S. waiting to ambush Japanese carriers, it could have been Japan waiting to ambush U.S. carriers.

 

[Post]

I don't think a US loss in the battle of Midway would lead to a peacesettlement, for several reasons:
- even if the US lost all carriers, they'd still know they had a lot of them coming in service in the coming years. It's very likely the Japanese will have losses. Probably at least one carrier, almost certainly a lot of planes and pilots.
- the Battle of Midway would still be spun as a US victory, because even with the loss of the carriers, there's no chance the Japanese invasion will succeed. So it will be told that the defenders have valiantly fought off a Japanese attack, and they will be lauded as heros.

 

[Lalli]

Not way that USA just makes peace after defeat at Midway. USA is going to demand unconditional surrending. It would be political suicide even suggesting making peace with Japan after PH without Japanese surrending.

And I can't see Japan bothering to help with defeat of nazis. Why they would? And Japan has not any capacity to fight in Euorpe anyway.

Cold War between USA and Japan after WW2 is nearby ASB. Even if under very very implausible situation there would be peace without nuking and occupation of Japan, Japan would be too badly weakened and Soviet threat would be prety big. Japan is going to be ally with USA not trying to get three-sided Cold War where Japan would be pretty small actor compared with USA and USSR.

 

[Dancing Fool]

even if the US lost all carriers, they'd still know they had a lot of them coming in service in the coming years

But I wonder, how quickly? Admiral Yamamoto’s whole approach was that Japan needed to win quickly.

 

[Dancing Fool]

It would be political suicide even suggesting making peace with Japan after PH without Japanese surrending.

And I can't see Japan bothering to help with defeat of nazis. Why they would? And Japan has not any capacity to fight in Euorpe anyway.

A lot of wars in human history have been unproductively continued precisely because of the “political suicide” argument, which at times is a very correct perception of the political situation.

Japan itself in OTL ! ! ! as one of many examples

PS I meant, the U.S. helps to defeat the Nazis by 1944, and I’m going to change the title in that regard.

 

[TRH]

A lot of wars in human history have been unproductively continued precisely because of the “political suicide” argument, which at times is a very correct perception of the political situation.

This would not be one of them, because a war with Japan would still be quite winnable even after a defeat at Midway.

 

[Dancing Fool]

Pearl Harbor | Origins

December 7th marks the anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Few place names in American history produce such a visceral response as the Hawaiian bay that housed the U.S. Pacific Fleet in 1941.

origins.osu.edu

Yamamoto said to the Japanese Prime Minister: “In the first six to twelve months of a war with the United States and Great Britain I will run wild and win victory upon victory. But then, if the war continues after that, I have no expectation of success.”

 

[Post]

But I wonder, how quickly?

Grim Economic Realities

In about a year they'd be on parity again.

 

[Dancing Fool]

This would not be one of them, because a war with Japan would still be quite winnable even after a defeat at Midway.

It might be closer to what the actor playing Dick Best was portrayed as saying to his wife, If we lose, the war will continue for 10 years, Japan will be raiding the West Coast.

Now, we might still continue on, and perhaps defeat Japan in ‘46 or ‘47, and maybe Nazi German by ‘47 and hopefully the Nazis won’t develop an atomic bomb. They weren’t really that close. And hopefully, their non-atomic V-2’s won’t do that much damage in a longer war [in OTL, the Nazis launched more than 3,000 V-2’s in Sept, Oct, and early Nov. 1944]. And the Allies own use of atomic weapons might play a much greater role in turning the tide and winning the war.

I can still see us settling with Japan. In fact, that may have been the rational decision. And as unpalatable as that may have been, FDR may have been able to pull it off. Or, he may decide this is an issue worth losing the presidency over and not run in 1944.

It’s rational to focus effort on the enemy who can hurt you more.

But during a long Cold War, Japan may more than catch up.

 

[Dancing Fool]

Grim Economic Realities

In about a year they'd be on parity again.

Please pull out what you think is most important.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

Station Hypo

“A message was sent out across the undersea cable instructing U.S. forces on Midway to send a false radio message in the clear stating that Midway’s fresh water system had malfunctioned.

“The Japanese took the bait and soon Hypo intercepted a Japanese message stating that “AF” was having trouble with its fresh water system.”

*************

“In the clear” means uncoded, and that’s the part which is too neat by half.

Japan could have sniffed it out.

And instead the U.S. waiting to ambush Japanese carriers, it could have been Japan waiting to ambush U.S. carriers.

Even if Japan figured out that something was up from a message sent in the clear, that wouldn't tell them anything about the position of American ships.

 

[Post]

Please pull out what you think is most important.

The answer to your question is towards the end of the page

In other words, even if it had lost catastrophically at the Battle of Midway, the United States Navy still would have broken even with Japan in carriers and naval air power by about September 1943. Nine months later, by the middle of 1944, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed a nearly two-to-one superiority in carrier aircraft capacity! Not only that, but with her newer, better aircraft designs, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed not only a substantial numeric, but also a critical qualitative advantage as well, starting in late 1943.

 

[Post]

But during a long Cold War, Japan may more than catch up.

No, they won't. The US outbuilds them with ease. In the gave I linked earlier, it's also said that by the end of the war the US Navy was bigger than all other navies combined.

 

[DougM]

The ships the US brought not the fleet in the year or so after Midway would have over powered Japan.
So while losing at Midway would suck. It would in no way be a war winner for Japan. And the US citizens were willing yo pay the price for victory.

Yes Japan based the war on the idea that they could win enough early on for the US to give up. But they were compl 100% wrong in that assumption just as Germany was wrong that bombing London would break the will of GB.

 

[Garrison]

Pearl Harbor | Origins

December 7th marks the anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Few place names in American history produce such a visceral response as the Hawaiian bay that housed the U.S. Pacific Fleet in 1941.

origins.osu.edu

Yamamoto said to the Japanese Prime Minister: “In the first six to twelve months of a war with the United States and Great Britain I will run wild and win victory upon victory. But then, if the war continues after that, I have no expectation of success.”

Well assuming that quote is accurate it doesn't mean that if he gets lucky and extends the winning streak for an extra couple of months that will translate into them being able to end the war on with a favorable peace treaty. Midway was a massive overreach and even if the exact sequence of events was different it would still have probably ended badly for the Japanese. If they did win then they might postpone the war into 1946. It might also postpone the end in Europe because the USA will probably commit more resources to the Pacific. What the USA will not do is end the war.
If somehow there was a peace there will not be a prolonged cold war as Japan lacks the industrial base to compete with the USA.

It might be closer to what the actor playing Dick Best was portrayed as saying to his wife, If we lose, the war will continue for 10 years, Japan will be raiding the West Coast.

Which might reflect the gloomy disposition of people in the US military after Pearl Harbor, Wake Island and the Philippines but that does not mean it bears any relation to the reality of the situation, in the same way that the invasion panic in Britain in 1940 did not mean that Operation Sealion was actually possible. BTW really rather unnecessary to clog up your post with a huge image of a movie poster.

 

[Post]

Which might reflect the gloomy disposition of people in the US military after Pearl Harbor, Wake Island and the Philippines but that does not mean it bears any relation to the reality of the situation, in the same way that the invasion panic in Britain in 1940 did not mean that Operation Sealion was actually possible.

I think it mostly reflects Hollywood drama.

 

[Dancing Fool]

Even if Japan figured out that something was up from a message sent in the clear, that wouldn't tell them anything about the position of American ships.

No, but Adm. Nagumo may do more than the average amount of searching by plane.

 

[Dancing Fool]

The answer to your question is towards the end of the page

“In other words, even if it had lost catastrophically at the Battle of Midway, the United States Navy still would have broken even with Japan in carriers and naval air power by about September 1943 . . . ”

*************

But that is 1 year, 3 months after the Battle of Midway. We might well decide that discretion is the better part of valor!

And if Japan offers a face-saving settlement, we may well take it. And they’d be advised to offer such a settlement.

 

[Fire and shadow]

They would just make the Eagle angrier.