Japan aides Ethiopia during the Fascist invasion

PecuTheGreat

Japan had for some time before that been building an image as the protector of the coloured races against the whites (will still use this image during the establishment of the co-prosperity sphere) and several autonomous Japanese groups really bought into this in relationship to Blacks, one of which were looking to use blacks in America as internal allies. Some Black Americans writers even defended Japan's conquest and treatment of Chinese and Koreans.

Back to Ethiopia, the Ethiopian-Japanese relationship was pretty strong, marriage alliance were being set up, the Ethiopian constitution was being based in the Meiji one and so on.

But due to growing talks with the Germans and Italians they decided to back Italy's invasion of Ethiopia which actually annoyed groups like the black dragon society that were really into the whole Japanese-Blacks alliance thing.

What if instead, the Japanese do oppose this invasion and do so militarily with the Brits, Dutch and French giving them basically Free passage to the region as they weren't willing to directly intervene but weren't exactly pro-Italy either in that war.
 
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ToasterOven456

PecuTheGreat said:
Japan had for some time before that been building an image as the protector of the coloured races against the whites (will still use this image during the establishment of the co-prosperity sphere) and several autonomous Japanese groups really bought into this in relationship to Blacks, one of which were looking to use blacks in America as internal allies. Black Americans even defended Japan's conquest and treatment of Chinese and Koreans.

Back to Ethiopia, the Ethiopian-Japanese relationship was pretty strong, marriage alliance were being set up, the Ethiopian constitution was being based in the Meiji one and so on.

But due to growing talks with the Germans and Italians they decided to back Italy's invasion of Ethiopia which actually annoyed groups like the black dragon society that were really into the whole Japanese-Blacks alliance thing.

What if instead, the Japanese do oppose this invasion and do so militarily with the Brits, Dutch and French giving them basically Free passage to the region as they weren't willing to directly intervene but weren't exactly pro-Italy either in that war.
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very hypocritical of them to help against war crimes, while also committing war crimes. I could see their effort being blocked
 

Catspoke

I am a fan of this idea, but the practical parts are hard.

What kind of Japanese intervention are we talking, a declaration of war and Japanese cruisers raiding the red sea Italian supply routes.

OR trying to supply the Ethiopians with military equipment, which is difficult to a land locked country.
 

PecuTheGreat

Catspoke said:
I am a fan of this idea, but the practical parts are hard.

What kind of Japanese intervention are we talking, a declaration of war and Japanese cruisers raiding the red sea Italian supply routes.

OR trying to supply the Ethiopians with military equipment, which is difficult to a land locked country.
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No like actually Japanese military intervention, maybe back room monetarily supported by France and Britain as they wanted to contain Italy and Germany.
 

Catspoke

PecuTheGreat said:
No like actually Japanese military intervention, maybe back room monetarily supported by France and Britain as they wanted to contain Italy and Germany.
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Like sending a japanese division and supply up the railway from French Djibouti, that would be enough to win it for the Ethiopians for sure, especially if they came with a few good aircraft and pilots and a supply of gas masks.

It's pretty much everything short of the French declaring war on Italy though. Would certainly be war between Japan and Italy unless both sides pretended they were volunteers to avoid this.

It would probably get the Japanese some sympathy in the USA. Probably keeps the Germans on the side of the Chinese.

Obvious bonus to the world if world war 2 is Butterflied away as a result of all this.
 

PecuTheGreat

Catspoke said:
Like sending a japanese division and supply up the railway from French Djibouti, that would be enough to win it for the Ethiopians for sure, especially if they came with a few good aircraft and pilots and a supply of gas masks.

It's pretty much everything short of the French declaring war on Italy though. Would certainly be war between Japan and Italy unless both sides pretended they were volunteers to avoid this.

It would probably get the Japanese some sympathy in the USA. Probably keeps the Germans on the side of the Chinese.

Obvious bonus to the world if world war 2 is Butterflied away as a result of all this.
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No the Italians and the Japanese going to war is no problem for this timeline.

Just the Italians and French or British going to war, whose support would be similar to America's through most of WWI, indirect, non-military and Free passage.

I am thinking a timeline where the Japanese continue to try and build a non-Westerner Bloc without directly getting into war with the West.
 

Tanaka did nothing wrong

The problem with this is, however, why would Japan choose to endanger relations with Italy? True, before the invasion, there were various plans and ideas about inreasing Japanese influence in the area, but these were cut short when the invasion happened. I'll try to write a more detailed response once I get more time and if you want more info.
 

Enigmajones

In my TL, I had France and Japan coming to the aid of Ethiopia, that ends in victory against Italy, and results in the French taking Italian Somalia, while Ethiopia annexes Italian Eritrea.
 
Maponus

Maponus

It might have little long term consequences - Germany aided Ethiopia, and Italy still continued its natural and inevitable gravitation towards an alliance with it. It would just be one of those funny little ironic factoids. Japan is hardly going to turn the tide of such a one-sided conflict from the other side of the world.
 
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PecuTheGreat

Tanaka did nothing wrong said:
The problem with this is, however, why would Japan choose to endanger relations with Italy? True, before the invasion, there were various plans and ideas about inreasing Japanese influence in the area, but these were cut short when the invasion happened. I'll try to write a more detailed response once I get more time and if you want more info.
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I mean, why wouldn't they. Their relations with Ethiopia was much older and they were investing pretty deep in building an anti-Western image.

It's not like Ethiopia was a particularly impressive power in Europe at the time to warrant Japan losing the Influence it had gained across international black cycles for them.

Like seriously, what did the alliance with Italy even bring Japan in the interwar and WWII period?.
 
Maponus

Maponus

PecuTheGreat said:
No like actually Japanese military intervention, maybe back room monetarily supported by France and Britain as they wanted to contain Italy and Germany.
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That would be borderline impossible from a logistic and military standpoint, too much risk for too little gain, and by inserting themselves into African politics Japan will most like make itself seem the bigger aggressor. Italy is behaving badly inside the European colonial sphere of influence, whereas Japan would be basically invading the white colonial club. France and the UK want a peaceful Africa dominated by Europe, they want to restrict Italy because letting European powers fight over colonies freely risks European conflicts in the future, doesn't mean they want a non-European power inciting anti-Western revolution.
 

Tanaka did nothing wrong

PecuTheGreat said:
I mean, why wouldn't they. Their relations with Ethiopia was much older and they were investing pretty deep in building an anti-Western image.

It's not like Ethiopia was a particularly impressive power in Europe at the time to warrant Japan losing the Influence it had gained across international black cycles for them.

Like seriously, what did the alliance with Italy even bring Japan in the interwar and WWII period?.
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Well, the thing is that Italy and Japan had been growing closer to each other; on the other hand, the grandiose projects with regard to Ethiopia, such as the irrigation schemes around lake Tana and the settlement of 100,000 Japanese in the area failed to materialise, which took away some of the steam of those who wanted to make Ethiopia a model case for Africa. Adding to this, from August 1935 onward, Tokyo oriented itself more towards an alliance with Italy, as the more conservative establishment in foreign policy circles prevailed over the "idealists" of the Pan-Asian group and Japan and Italy began seeking to deepen cooperation in view of their respective governments' opposition to the status quo and their willingness to achieve changes in the then status quo; a prerequisite for such a rapprochement/alliance was that Japan would have to end its endeavours in Ethiopia.

Also, bear in mind, 1935 isn't 1939; this is before even the remilitarisation of the Rhineland. Italy is one of the big three western European powers and the only one that seemed to be drifting towards an anti-League stance.
 

PecuTheGreat

Maponus said:
That would be borderline impossible from a logistic and military standpoint, too much risk for too little gain, and by inserting themselves into African politics Japan will most like make itself seem the bigger aggressor. Italy is behaving badly inside the European colonial sphere of influence, whereas Japan would be basically invading the white colonial club. France and the UK want a peaceful Africa dominated by Europe, they want to restrict Italy because letting European powers fight over colonies freely risks European conflicts in the future, doesn't mean they want a non-European power inciting anti-Western revolution.
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Ethiopia was already in the league if nations and the league of nations although in practice and probably in the back minds of many a Western club was still being sold to the world as the club of all the proper states.

A Japanese intervention isn't impossible as long as they're given Free passage, they had a modern Navy that would make the journey.

While a Japanese intervention in Ethiopia would definitely bring Ethiopia into Japan's sphere, Ethiopia was arguably already there or closely allied at least and the Westerners didn't seem too bothered by it, they are also in a better logistical position, so if they were able to bully Japan into lesser concessions from China why wouldn't they feel equally confident to be able to do the same in an East Africa where Japan wouldn't even have land concessions.
 

PecuTheGreat

Tanaka did nothing wrong said:
Well, the thing is that Italy and Japan had been growing closer to each other; on the other hand, the grandiose projects with regard to Ethiopia, such as the irrigation schemes around lake Tana and the settlement of 100,000 Japanese in the area failed to materialise, which took away some of the steam of those who wanted to make Ethiopia a model case for Africa. Adding to this, from August 1935 onward, Tokyo oriented itself more towards an alliance with Italy, as the more conservative establishment in foreign policy circles prevailed over the "idealists" of the Pan-Asian group and Japan and Italy began seeking to deepen cooperation in view of their respective governments' opposition to the status quo and their willingness to achieve changes in the then status quo; a prerequisite for such a rapprochement/alliance was that Japan would have to end its endeavours in Ethiopia.

Also, bear in mind, 1935 isn't 1939; this is before even the remilitarisation of the Rhineland. Italy is one of the big three western European powers and the only one that seemed to be drifting towards an anti-League stance.
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You know, maybe a Japan loses the Russo-Japanese war would be better for this timeline, the army/navy would want to place to restore their honour, the idealist position would seem to have more ratio results and Japan would look much less like a threat to the West.

Anyways, the only difference I see here is that Italy is a more established power than Ethiopia but in the same way that planned projects with Ethiopia were not yet materialized, projects from Italy hadn't materialised either anywhere either.

And the Value of Ethiopia laid in more than Ethiopia, a Japanese intervention in Ethiopia would have justified to the coloured world that Japan was taking seriously it's claim of being pro-coloured.

Tokyo also had many ideas in this time, even it's southern expansion even with influences beforehand wasn't secured as what they would have done until it actually happened.

This is talkless of Italy's performance in WWI and inter war period being wanting.
T
 

Tanaka did nothing wrong

PecuTheGreat said:
You know, maybe a Japan loses the Russo-Japanese war would be better for this timeline, the army/navy would want to place to restore their honour, the idealist position would seem to have more ratio results and Japan would look much less like a threat to the West.

Anyways, the only difference I see here is that Italy is a more established power than Ethiopia but in the same way that planned projects with Ethiopia were not yet materialized, projects from Italy hadn't materialised either anywhere either.

And the Value of Ethiopia laid in more than Ethiopia, a Japanese intervention in Ethiopia would have justified to the coloured world that Japan was taking seriously it's claim of being pro-coloured.

Tokyo also had many ideas in this time, even it's southern expansion even with influences beforehand wasn't secured as what they would have done until it actually happened.

This is talkless of Italy's performance in WWI and inter war period being wanting.
T
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The problem with Japan losing in 1905 is that it simply creates too many butterflies.

Well, it's not just more established: Italy was literally one of the Big Four in Versailles; it is still in 1935 the third major European power. Ethiopia didn't have any of the reach Italy had. Also, in 1935, Japan would have been in relative diplomatic isolation for almost 2 years, iirc; the rapprochement with Italy was important for that reason as well. And last, but not least, even Germany at first sent weapons to Ethiopia back then; that didn't exactly did much to help them in the diplomatic field; if the war broke out and Japan set out to capture Southeast Asia, it would boil down on the practical necessities at the time. IOTL, the policies implemented were characterised as sharing in the sacrifices made by Japan to protect the new order in Asia from the West, iirc; so I don't think it would make much difference. A lot of things could change in 5 years. Still though, that's me; perhaps it is possible, with this and other PODs as well, to make the Japanese foreign policy different compared to OTL.
 
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