Jackasses in a Hailstorm: An Alternate 1964 Election

Deleted member 87099

I suppose Bayh could eek out another four years just so Rummy can come riding in the 1980 election.
I wonder what a moderate Rumsfeldia would be like.

Hopefully better than the shitstorm that occurred in Gumbo.
 
Who are all the people? I recognize most of them, but not whoever's between Bayh and Johnson or the two between Wallace and Romney.

J. Millard Tawes is the one between Johnson and Bayh,

and the two between Wallace and Romney, are Nelson Rockefeller and Barry Goldwater.
 
Chapter 12:

"There is a proper season for making attacks with fire, and special days for starting a conflagration." - (The Art of War, XII, 3)

+++

Birch Bayh's presidency had a shadow cast over it almost immediately. Just after Election Day it emerged that his wife, Mary, had Breast Cancer and required treatment. The First Lady's fight against Breast Cancer would serve both as an inspirational unifier in a divided Washington, and a constant distraction for the President as he preformed his duties.

Bayh, who held a solid majority in both houses of congress, made healthcare his first priority to "get the damn thing out of my way". After brief probing revealed that Universal Healthcare was still out of his reach he immediately threw his support behind Medicare, which endeared him to moderates.

With Bayh and the Congressional leadership's backing it Medicare was poised to be pushed through Congress at a fast pace. However the conservative opposition proved stronger then expected and the bill provoked a harder fight then Bayh expected. But despite the worrying strength from the conservative bloc it would pass in early 1973 and provide insurance to the elderly and poor. It was a solid victory for Bayh, if a bit of a disappointment for the liberals.

However the domestic front seemed to falter for Bayh outside of Medicare. Unemployment remained low, which was good, but inflation was at its highest levels in years. Prices were rising and even temporary price controls failed to stop it. Combined with high interest rates the economy began to sink lower and lower. Despite attempts like the Drop Inflation Now Group (DING) the economy faltered, and it showed in the midterms where gains were made for the Republicans.

+++

BB: So what's happening?

DJ: Massive Egypt and Syria are attacking with everything they've got in the Sinai and Golan Hights, and they're pushing back Israeli forces.

BB: What about the other Arab states?

DJ: Cheering them on and promising volunteers, but nothing else.

BB: Not even Jordan?

TM: After the fiasco with the PLO they've had recently I doubt their in much of a mood to help out.

DJ: Exactly Mr. Secretary.

BB: How successful are they being?

DJ: Dangerously well. Not as well as the Israelis the last time around, but well enough that if we don't do anything then the state of Israel could be wiped off the map.

TM: And your reelection chances as well.

BB: The Soviets?

TM: Supportive of the Arabs. How far are they willing to go? I don't know, they like detente but I could easily see them playing hardball.

DJ: Direct intervention is a possibility. But I would not recommend it.

TM: Birch, we've got to show some way that we support them. An airlift?

DJ: Feasible.

BB: All it takes is one plane shot out of the sky and we get in a war. We keep the supplies flowing into Tel Aviv and play compromiser. That's all we do unless the Syrians and Egyptians start threatening major populated areas. Or if Israel starts hinting at a Sampson Option.

+++

The USSR and USA would end up brokering a peace deal between Israel and the Arab powers, but it would come at a cost to the Bayh Administration. A "soft on Israel" image emerged around him, hurting his already weak support among defense hawks. The Arab nations saw it differently and hiked oil prices, which furthered the economic doldrums at home and hurt the president.

On top of all of this the national debt began to mount, the debt becoming a favorite subject of attack from conservative congressmen. The stock markets began to dip and dragged the economy, and Bayh's approval rating, down. Further events abroad did not help this image.

Since the peace talks in 1970 North Vietnam had consolidated its supporter's in Laos while beefing up its strength in areas the Viet Cong controlled in the South. Meanwhile Dy had completely failed to come to terms with his precarious condition and refused to make progress with Ho Chi Minh and the Viet Cong. In preparation for the holiday of Tet in 1974 the latter two launched a massive offensive aimed at toppling the Saigon government. North Vietnamese tanks crossed the DMZ and fighting erupted across the countryside. It soon became apparent that without American assistance Saigon would fall. But almost no one in Washington wanted another full scale intervention. But at the same time no one wanted so many Americans lives lost for a regime that would fall the communism anyway. Bayh authorized, with the support of Congress, Operation: California Condor, a massive bombing campaign on all of Vietnam aimed on preventing the fall of the South to Communism. It was too little too late and soon the red star flew over Saigon, soon to be Ho Chi Minh City. Despite the success of Operation: Andean Condor in keeping the communist group the Khmer Rouge out of power in Cambodia the American public still saw the events as a major loss.

Overall Bayh's foreign policy direction was not well received. The Turkish invasion of Cyprus caused the US to "freeze" as two NATO powers duked it out. In the end it was British meditation after the accidental bombing of an RAF base that resulted in the division of the Island between Greece and the Republic of Eastern Cyprus.

All of this was reflected in the midterms which saw the GOP come within striking distance in the Senate while picking up a few seats in the house.

Relations with Israel reached new lows during the Bayh administration as well, reflecting the perceived lack of support during the October War. China remained isolated from both the west and east and backed a series of aggressive maneuvers by North Korea in 1975.

Meanwhile the Republicans cursed the economy for only officially slipping into recession after the midterms, but that was little solace to the increasingly stressed Bayh, as his wife underwent cancer treatment.

But as 1976 loomed one final fact emerged.

+++

No Swine Flu?

IllinoisSox said:
What if the 1975-76 Swine Flu Epidemic never happened?

LordYule said:
Bayh still had a lot of problems to deal with. But the Flu/Vaccination fiasco really hurt him at the very least the opening shots of 1976 will be more interesting.

GorgonQueen said:
Could it kill the anti-vaccine movement?

Northumbrian said:
}searches{

Shit that was mishandled. It started at an ARMY BASE and spread? It's the same strain as 1918 for Christ's sake! And then that shit with the vaccines. No wonder you yanks are so anti-vaccine. That set back immunization so far.

R said:
That's good.

LordYule said:
Eh. Its a complex issue.

Northeastumbrian said:

LordYule said:
Back on topic.

Helpful to Bayh, might increase his polling. Any effect on the GOP race?

GorgonQueen said:
Reagan jumps in? IDK.

Say maybe it makes Bayh less desperate so he doesn't push the Primary Reform?
 
Chapter 13:

"A wind that rises in the daytime lasts long, but a nighttime breeze soon falls." - (The Art of War, XII, 11)

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Exactly one interesting thing happened for the Democratic Primaries.

Bayh swept every state and no opponent emerged. At the convention in Pittsburgh he launched a proposal to make primaries the real decider of delegates, not just local parties. Every state would have a primary that selected, on a proportional basis, the number of delegates the state would receive. Despite grumblings from the party bosses the measure passed. Most speculated it was an attempt to "reinvigorate" interest in the Democratic Party as a whole and most agreed it failed.

The Republicans just kept on going with the old system for the time being.

+++

The Liberal Wing of the party had several options open to it. Governor Charles Mathias of Maryland had opposed conservatives on Vietnam and Civil Rights and sided often with the opposite sides to form bipartisan credentials. Representative Elliot Richardson of Massachusetts was relatively moderate but whipped up a fervor around him about corruption. Nelson Rockefeller raised his head once again for one last trumpet at the nomination. Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts sought to become the first black president.

The more conservative wing saw New York Senator James L. Buckley launch a conservative economic campaign but a more liberal social one. Buckley was relatively young but swept up voters with his "kind conservatism" streak. John Tower had started out as a conservative Texan senator in a sea of Democrats and Liberal Republicans. He'd mellowed a bit but was still seen as a respected figure. Representative George Bush of Texas was a hawk and more conservative then most, but took a moderate tone. It was not a year for Goldwaterites.

History would divide the candidates into those who poured resources into the early states of New Hampshire and Wisconsin and those who ran a more national campaign. The momentum seekers included Bush, Brooke, and Richardson while Buckley, Mathias and Tower ran a more national campaign. Rockefeller was too low in polls for it to really matter.

New Hampshire would see Brooke win narrowly over Mathias. The best conservative showing was fourth for Buckley, just behind Richardson.

Wisconsin would be won by Mathias, cementing his status as a liberal frontrunner. Brooke came in third after Buckley. Afterwords Richardson dropped out in favor of Brooke

Tower, who had been floating midlevel until then, pulled of a huge upset in Florida. He beat Buckley out there and trounced Bush. The Liberals, especially the black Brooke struggled.

Mathias won the large Illinois primary by a relatively large margin over Buckley. While Brooke took a hit.

Massachusetts would be won by favorite son Brooke. Buckley would get second but by a disappointingly small margin over Mathias and Tower.

Mathias won Pennsylvania, however Tower would defeat Buckley there by a large margin, tapping into worker anger at the New Yorker's business credentials.

Indiana would go to Buckley by a narrow margin over Mathias. Ohio went to Mathias after some splitting by Tower and Buckley.

Tower would strengthen his support with wins in Tennessee and North Carolina by solid margins over all of his opponents. Bush was running on fumes by this point and backed out in favor of Tower.

+++

JT: Gerry?

GF: Yeah John?

JT: What needs to happen for you to back me in Michigan?

GF: Well I'm a moderate John, I respect you greatly. But my plans are to back Governor Mathias. But not too publicly.

JT: Look, I'm no Eastern Establishment guy, but to call me a Goldwater or Reagan guy isn't fair. I'm an internally moderate Republican. You're a good, honest wrangler. An all American boy. Now I make no promises but the chances of you getting the nod for VP are high with your endorsement. And a cabinet position is almost a given.

GF: John, I like you and I wish you luck. I'll ponder the idea. You'll have a response soon.

JT: Fine then.

[door]

[phone rings]

GF: This is Ford.

CM: Hello Congressman Ford. We haven't met much, but I respect your service in the House. We both represent a type of compromising republican that harkens back to Eisenhower. I was hoping we could…

GF: Jesus Christ, I'm only House Minority Leader.

CM: What was that?

GF: Nothing.

+++

Nebraska would see Tower keep so momentum by upsetting Buckley and Mathias there.

Mathias won his home state of Maryland.

Michigan would be a near tie between Tower, who would end up with a smudge fewer votes, and Mathias. Once again Tower did better with dissatisfied lower to middle class conservatives then Buckley.

Oregon and Rhode Island were Mathias wins on the last day before the election.

With Ronald Reagan's endorsement Buckley would win California by a narrow margin over Mathias.

South Dakota would round out the last day with a win for Tower.

Nobody had a majority of delegates and the party was fractured.

+++

Role Playing Ideas pg 288

Viper said:
Would anyone be interested in a game based on the 1976 GOP convention?

Reggy said:
How based?

Are we minor candidates trying to get ourselves drafted?
Are we the OTL big players?
Are we our own characters heavily based off of Tower, Mathias, Buckley etc?
Are we delegates backing someone? Helping out Mary Crisp?

Viper said:
The last one. Playing as candidates is done a lot. We'd be delegates at the convention, or maybe GOP officers. Our goal would be to convince the candidates to back one another in hopes of having a prayer in November.

BigJohn said:
But if its OTL it isn't terribly interesting, despite the hopes of Crisp, Tower was the only decent option. No one would commit suicide with Brooke. Mathias had Brooke's delegates most likely down the line but there was really no other place for him to get. Buckley's young but he just jumped on board the GOP train from the NY Conservatives so the party apparatus isn't behind him. That leaves Tower, Buckley will back him for a cabinet slot (he knows he has little chance in 1980). With those delegates, and soon to be chairmen George Bushes backing he becomes the establishment candidate. It might not always be the first ballot but nine times out of ten its Tower.

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Despite his failure to receive the most primary votes Tower would be nominated. After that the convention went surprisingly smoothly with the party falling in line behind the Texan. His Vice Presidential pick was a nod to the northern and liberal parts of his party, Representative Eliot Richardson.

The haphazard nomination process had left the Tower/Richardson behind in polls to Bayh/Glenn. But with a stumbling economy and voter fatigue they had high hopes of closing it and surpassing it.
 
Chapter 14:

"Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays." - (The Art of War, II, 5)

+++

Polling indicated an extremely narrow lead for Bayh after the chaotic Republican convention. However his lead evaporated quickly as the economy continued to either and he seemed powerless to stop it.

Tower's campaign realized that they had a strong position to build on and began focused attacks on all sides against the administration. Bayh's "senseless economic platform" was attacked and Tower called for cuts to spending and to taxes. Bayh's admittedly lackluster foreign policy record was assaulted with Tower launching into detailed attacks of what the President did wrong. Tower portrayed himself as a "tested figure" in the Senate with the experience needed to guide the country through the Cold War. He proposed a revitalization of the idea of SEATO to unite nations in Asia opposed to Communism. His economic platform was deregulatory and supported some welfare cuts, but he refused to call for the abolishment of Medicare.

Bayh's reelection campaign was plagued by missteps from the start. Glenn gaffed early on, saying "At least Cambodia isn't communist", failing to address the dread the nation felt after the fall of Vietnam. The convention, which had featured dry technical debate over delegate appropriation, failed to excite the party. His slim polling lead quickly evaporated into nothingness.

===

JT: Congressman Rumsfeld, a pleasure to see you.

DR: Senator Tower.

JT: I think you know what this is about.

DR: My letter of resignation is quite clear on the matter.

JT: You've been an asset to the campaign and quite helpful in the Midwest. I don't think "differences of opinion with senior" management is going to cut it. Is it me? Is it Richardson.

DR: …

JT: Tell me, I don't have all day.

DR: Bush. He's got too much control over the campaign.

JT: Mr. Bush and I see eye to eye on quite a few issues.

DR: It's not the issues sir. Its the temperament his having you run with.

JT: I don't follow.

DR: The whole campaign is playing too soft with Bayh. We should be relentless on the attack, beat them to a pulp, make this a landslide.

JT: I'm not sure I…

DR: Not you personally. But we need to take the kiddy gloves off. We need to keep Bayh down.

JT: We're polling far ahead of the President. If we don't rock the boat well sail right into the White House.

DR: That's exactly what Bush had been telling you?

JT: Not just him. Every expert we have agrees on it.

DR: That's what everyone was telling Dewey.

+++

Tower emphasized his tough on communism stance, telling the nation that Bayh had been weak in the face of aggression and had been involved in "appeasement". However personal mudslinging remained to a minimum early in the campaign. But the economy kept spiraling down and Bayh had little to offer. So Bayh went on the offensive.

Tower was known to partake in alcohol and so Bayh assaulted him as a drunk who couldn't be trusted with his hand on the button. They attacked several alleged affairs, some of them likely true, and began mudslinging. They called him a warmonger and a Goldwaterite who would destroy the world.

Even as the attacks continued Tower remained aloof speaking about deregulation in order the jump start the economy. He attacked how the country was lead not who the country was led by. It made him seem statesmanlike, as a contrast to Bayh's portrayal of him as a drunk.

Bayh meanwhile was climbing in the polls.

+++

Truman defeats Dewey? Pg 2

Reigndeer said:
The issue with your idea GorgonQueen, is that this kind of good polling wasn't even a twinkle in its mother's eye yet. And the Give 'Em Hell strategy was only created because Truman seemed so unpopular. So he needs to be popular to not do that and create such scenario. Maybe he could take the lead of Dewy had a scandal or something. This is a hard question, a full on attack strategy almost always works on an aloof opponent.

LordYule said:
It can backfire if you overplay your hand and look like a whiny guy.

GorgonQueen said:
Good Point, both of you.

LordYule said:
It's even worse if you don't have the personality to do it. Then you come across as pathetic when you debate, though that isn't a problem in '48.

R said:
You mean calling your opponent a drunk on national television and implying not so subtly that he'll kill us all is a gaffe?

SHOCKING!

Reigndeer said:
I remember that. That was my first year voting.

+++

Bayh, despite his debate gaffes, had been clawing upwards from his polling nadir in Late August. But Tower retained a lead and Bayh had to defend himself in the South, the Midwest and the Northeast. A tall task for someone who was running a country and whose wife was still doing Chemotherapy.

In Late October they launched a new round of personal attacks on Tower, hoping to erode his statesmanlike image. The very image Bayh had campaigned on in 1972.

+++

genusmap.php


Senator John Tower/Congressman Elliot Richardson 432
President Birch Bayh/Vice President John Glenn 108​
 
And with that. Jackasses in a Hailstorm has its first Republican President. 16 years of Democratic Rule have ended.

Shameless Plug for my [THREAD=386113]New TL[/THREAD]
 
Tower is a pretty unknown quantity.
I'm unsure if the fella is going to be more Nixon or more Reagan to the party.
 
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