Italy joins World War 2 after the fall of Poland
- Thread starter walmart
- Start date
Typical answers would say, "Well, that depends upon how Italy enters the war."
Presuming the OP just wants hand-wavium, everything the same as OTL other than Mussolini calls in his merchant marine and then declares war, it probably helps the Axis presuming Manstein's plan is still followed. France will commit more forces to defending the French Alps and Britain is tied down even more in North Africa. In fact, this is where Italy stands to lose pretty badly before the attack on France. The good news is this butterflies away any invasion of Greece in the meantime.
This has pretty huge knock-ons. Germany wins france more easily...who knows, maybe Dunkirk goes the wrong way for the Wallies with less men committed to the German theater?
North Africa might be wrapped up by Britain, so Germany occupies french North Africa. NA might be less of a resource drain on Italy, but probably roughly equal as OTL for Germany.
Yugoslavia stays pro-Axis. In fact, Greece probably goes pro Axis to avoid Italian influence. At this point, Italy is probably pretty pissed off, as other than part of France, they got screwed out of their empire and they are contained by German allies in the Balkans. Italy pretty much becomes a non-combatant like Bulgaria. Pro axis on paper, but doing little more than defending their shores from the British.
The knock on effects of the Germans avoiding Greece and Yugoslavia are pretty huge. They get to start Barbarossa by early June, and might be able to realistically pull off a double envelopment from Romania into Ukraine, which butterflies the slow performance of AGS OTL. The quality of AGS is better due to Germany not losing 7,000 good frontline troops which were lost in Yugoslavia and Greece. Occupation duties and logistics are pros with friendly Balkan powers. The Fallshirmjaeger are in good shape and can pull off one solid operation in Barbarossa....who knows, perhaps something for struggling AGN leading to the early fall of Leningrad.
Germany can actually take Moscow in such an event. After that, we have several possibilities ranging from Germany wins the war to AGC gets encircled defending Moscow leading to the war ending in 1944.
Presuming the OP just wants hand-wavium, everything the same as OTL other than Mussolini calls in his merchant marine and then declares war, it probably helps the Axis presuming Manstein's plan is still followed. France will commit more forces to defending the French Alps and Britain is tied down even more in North Africa. In fact, this is where Italy stands to lose pretty badly before the attack on France. The good news is this butterflies away any invasion of Greece in the meantime.
This has pretty huge knock-ons. Germany wins france more easily...who knows, maybe Dunkirk goes the wrong way for the Wallies with less men committed to the German theater?
North Africa might be wrapped up by Britain, so Germany occupies french North Africa. NA might be less of a resource drain on Italy, but probably roughly equal as OTL for Germany.
Yugoslavia stays pro-Axis. In fact, Greece probably goes pro Axis to avoid Italian influence. At this point, Italy is probably pretty pissed off, as other than part of France, they got screwed out of their empire and they are contained by German allies in the Balkans. Italy pretty much becomes a non-combatant like Bulgaria. Pro axis on paper, but doing little more than defending their shores from the British.
The knock on effects of the Germans avoiding Greece and Yugoslavia are pretty huge. They get to start Barbarossa by early June, and might be able to realistically pull off a double envelopment from Romania into Ukraine, which butterflies the slow performance of AGS OTL. The quality of AGS is better due to Germany not losing 7,000 good frontline troops which were lost in Yugoslavia and Greece. Occupation duties and logistics are pros with friendly Balkan powers. The Fallshirmjaeger are in good shape and can pull off one solid operation in Barbarossa....who knows, perhaps something for struggling AGN leading to the early fall of Leningrad.
Germany can actually take Moscow in such an event. After that, we have several possibilities ranging from Germany wins the war to AGC gets encircled defending Moscow leading to the war ending in 1944.
So... Mussolini waits until say 1 November, which allows a month for Italian ships to return home. By that time, the Phony War is in place. Fall GELB doesn't start until May 1940, six months later.
What do France and Britain do in the meantim? I suggest that they would start attacking Italian possessions around the Mediterranean and in Africa. They're going to see this as an opportunity to fight that doesn't involve charging into the teeth of German fortifications, nor trying to cross the Alps in winter.
Britain has a lot more resources to spare for such campaigns than in OTL mid-late 1940, I think. France would make a serious contribution as well, instead of being a semi-hostile quasi-neutral. There would be a naval conflict in the central Mediterranean which the Allies would win.
The Allies can march into Italian East Africa and Libya. Other targets include the Dodecanese Islands and the Pelagic Islands. There's an interesting situation with Corsica and Sardinia, which are separated by only about 20 km. Also, Corsica is only about 50 km from Elba, and 250 km from Rome. There should be a lot of air combat. The French Air Force is seriously hosed at this time; having to fight might expose some of its weaknesses.
It would be interesting to see what plans the French military had for war with Italy. Also what plans Italy had for war with France; did Italy plan to invade Corsica?
Earlier liberation of Italian-occupied Ethiopia with an Allied-trained Ethiopian Expeditionary Force being formed to serve in Egypt where it could participate in a more successful Operation Compass and an earlier expulsion of the Axis from Africa?
Interesting speculations, but it is important to keep in mind that Italy is a sideshow like Norway. The Wallies cannot remove too many resources from France's actual defense, because obviously they anticipate a replay of WW1 in western Europe.
I agree that North Africa comes into play. Both the Italians and British really are not built up at this point, but British logistics are better. So we probably butterfly away an Italian offensive in Italy, as there is no element of surprise ITTL plus the British are not reeling from a defeat in France. Ironically, the Italians still lose, but more slowly due to getting to play defense.
I do wonder if there is a Medditteranean fleet action, perhaps with the goal of taking Malta. Britain and France combined would curbstomp Italy.
Wallies in Norway probably gets butterflied away. Norway probably becomes a pro-Axis neutral. I also believe that Norway and Sweden would allow Germany access to FInland come Barbarossa.
We can see in this scenario, Italy has almost nothing to gain and everything to lose. Which is why they did not do it IOTL.
I don't think the Dyle plan changes honestly. As I said before, Italy is a sideshow and the Wallies cannot afford to drain too many resources as Germany is the real focus.
Max Sinister
Banned
This might give the WAllies give opportunity to attack them earlier. In the worst case, Mussolini would be toppled earlier.
But why should Greece join the Axis? They didn't IOTL even after France fell.
But why should Greece join the Axis? They didn't IOTL even after France fell.
France and Britain turn all avaible forces against Italian colonies, and by the time France falls, elimination of Italian colonies (probably also Pantelaria) will remove great burden from Britain, they would probably seek to conquer Dodecanese next. It would greatly weaken Mussolini's position.
Dyle plan was adopted despite considerable opposition within French and British army. The Italian declaration of war and thus need to commit more forces at Italian border and in colonies, could tilt the scales towards Escault plan, at least until the operations in colonies are concluded.
I forgot something. If Mussolini enters the war in November 1939, he has to have A Plan. That is, he has to intend to get something, probably by conquest. His OTL decision in 1940 was a spur-of-the-moment move to cash in on what appeared to be a fleeting opportunity. This is a deliberate step.
So what does Mussolini intend? He's going to attack the Allies somewhere. IMO, Malta, Corsica, and Tunisia are plausible targets. Malta by itself wouldn't justify going to war. Corsica requires amphibious operations, but is almost necessary, given Corsica's position as an air base in close proximity to northern Italy, central Italy, and Sardinia. Tunisia was an Italian target during the Scramble for Africa.
The forces in East Africa wouid invade British Somaliland as in OTL, and also French Somaliland. I don't see an invasion of Egypt from Libya at this time - it's a long way to anything worthwhile and there are other fish to fry. An attack across the Alps into southern France - the terrain is, well, mountainous. And it's November, rather late in the year for mountaineering.
I also note that this would be a very bold decision by Mussolini, as at this time, Germany has not dared to engage France and Britain - it's a phony war for them too. Could Mussolini possibly think that Italy is strong enough to strike the blows Germany hasn't even attempted yet? Does he want to embarrass Hitler by showing him up?
ITTL Greece joins Axis after France falls and after Yugoslavia joins the Axis (i.e. Axis diplomacy in early 1941). Italy's earlier involvement in the war butterflies away the Italian Balkan invasions.
I think Plan E was replaced by Plan D simply because of Belgian preparations. Italian entry into the war does not change the amount of men France will commit to defense against Germany. France was not eneregtic in WW2 and they were not going to invest themselves into a peripheral campaign against Germany and employ a more flexible defensive strategy. France's thinking was predicated upon not repeating WW1. Their goal was to keep Germany of France's soil and their planning showed it. So, I don't see them changing anything major, simply because they do not take a main thrust through the Ardennes seriously.
I agree, and I simply just cannot see what it is. I mean, crazier things have happened. Powers declare war "like gentlemen" and simply just start fighting when and where they can. Germany did this to the USA. I mean, Germany could have simply started sinking US ships without declaring war. So, even in WW2 we see the Axis making moves like this.
Nevertheless, it does seem odd other than a POD like "Mussolini hits his head way too hard and DOW for no reason." He was not ready in Africa to invade French AND British possessions, so that is definitely a no go. A Mediterranean strategy is the only one that makes sense. If I really had to pull a target out of my butt for the sake of the OP, I'd say Corsica. It's an Italian possession originally, it's somewhere the British cannot project manpower (though eventually they could do fleet actions), and there is more propaganda value than Malta (though Malta would prove to be a better strategic target...but Italy was not going to go to war over a tiny island.)
However, for Italy to pull this off, you would need an Italian Pearl Harbor.
According to WIKI:
The Regia Marina had six battleships with which to contend for control of the Mediterranean, the four most modern of which were being re-fit at the outbreak of the war. In addition to the six capital ships, the Italians had 19 cruisers, 59 destroyers, 67 torpedo boats, and 116 submarines.
The French Fleet (WIKI):
The French fleet had seen little fighting during the Battle of France and was mostly intact. By tonnage, about 40 percent was in Toulon, near Marseilles, 40 percent in French North Africa and 20 percent in Britain, Alexandria and the French West Indies.
The French fleet was split up. Essentially, Italy would have to do a divide and conquer campaign, beating the French at sea and then occupying Corsica. So, the ATL "Pearl Harbor" would be againt Toulon. Its only about 200 km from the Italian border, so I'd imagine the entire Italian airforce would have to be involved with a risky fleet action which pretty much encompasses the entire Italian navy, other than ships they need to land soldiers and destroyers for the taking of Corsica.
Italian airforce (Wiki):
When World War II began in 1939, Italy had the smallest air force among the three major Axis powers. With a paper strength of 3,296 machines, only 2,000 were fit for operations, of which just 166 were modern fighters.
Yes, this is not a great airforce, but I presume the Italians had working torpedos and we know how Swordfish biplanes damaged the Italian fleet OTL.
So, in short, the Italian plan is to throw everything they have at Toulon, other than a few long range bombers being deployed for actions against Corsica. Just like the Germans did with Barbarossa, the Italians deploy their airforce just before dawn as their fleet closes in. To get the timing right would be nearly impossible, so I'd guess the air force already awakens the sleeping French giant and for Italy's sake does a lot of damage. The French, with most of their assets deployed against the Germans, put up good resistance but cannot stop the waves of air attacks.
The Italian fleet then engages the French fleet as they now appear over the horizon, destroying them in port. The fleet then sails to Corsica, where Italy's destoryers and merchant marine land a sizeable force to take Corsica, which pretty much surrenders after a few days.
At this point, everything depends upon the Franco-British reaction, which I presume, would be a combined British-French fleet. The Italian fleet hangs back and depends upon aircraft sent to Sardina (an unsinkable aircraft carrier!) to act as an air to their navy. If the Wallies engage, they will lose due to having no airpower to bring to bear in the battle. If they don't, Italy looks way better ITTL but the French and British then focus on taking Italy's North African possessions.
I'll leave it to others to speculate whether Italy then strikes at Malta with the goal of securing their logisitics to Libya where they play defense and await the German invasion of France.
Not really. It could be as impulsive & I'll coceived as OTL.
On a different track, Italy entering the war in November means it is blockaded eight months earlier & the economic effects accelerated that much. It's possible Italy reaches the economic conditions of August 1943 OTL November 1942
marathag
Banned
Or something bad happens.
The naval intelligence agency SIS (Servizio informazioni Speciali della Royal Marina) was divided into 4 branches. Branch B (Beta) was tasked with signals intelligence. It was subdivided into cryptanalysis, interception and direction finding, security and clandestine radio intercepts.
The cryptanalytic department was located in Rome and headed by Commander Mario De Monte. In the 1930’s they solved several French naval systems. During the war the emphasis was on British naval and naval aviation codes. Low level British naval codes were easily solved. The Italians also read the Royal Navy’s Administrative Code (used from 1934 till August 1940), the Naval Code No1 and No2 (used from August ‘40 till March ’43) plus the Naval Cypher No1 and No2 (used from 1934 till January ‘42).
The RM did not have the Japanese fascination with surprise attacks. It's likely there is no Alt "PH"
You mean fail to give the Mediterranean fleet naval superiority until the battle of Cape Matapan five months later? It'll hurt but the French won't be out.
Either the MN is gonna sortie out against suicidal odds which sounds odd or the Italian fleet is gonna throw themselves into the teeth of French coastal defences and torpedoes and mines, sounds dumb.
The Royal Navy has carriers just saying and the AdA and RAF can probably provide cover from Algeria and southern France
thaddeus
Donor
Axis Germany-USSR-Italy, https://news.google.com/newspapers?...g=1997,3847789&dq=356-wounded+11-planes&hl=en
prospect of Italy and USSR moving against Turkey (which should keep both busy)
prospect of Italy and USSR moving against Turkey (which should keep both busy)