Is Western Europe poised to always be more significant than Eastern Europe?

yeetboy

Banned
Regions such as Germany, Benelux, France, Iberia and the British Isles have such a lucky array of conditions that seemingly would always naturally lead them to flourish.

No enemies in the west due the Atlantic, hordes and other asian empires walled off by a number of Eastern European nations, access to the New World and Africa to exploit resources and take advantage of globalisation, and fertile farmlands around rivers that can sustain large populations which naturally allows for more technological, social, or artistic innovations.

For Eastern European nations to be relevant, it seems to me that they have to be huge in territory, like the PLC or Russia.

The problem I’m proposing is, would it be possible to have Eastern Europe replace Western Europe as being an area of rich, populous lands and centres of innovations. A scenario where Poland, Hungary, the Baltics are all great powers and Western Europe would be filled either with sparsely populated rump states or a mess of tiny nations.

Would it be possible? If so, how would it be possible? If not, how could it be possible? And what significant changes/effects on the world could we see from a dominant Eastern Europe.
 
Introduction of New World crops (especially potatoes) partially reduced dispairity between Western and Eastern Europe-potatoes allowed massive growth of population in places like Poland and Russia. During Medieval times population of France was 10-20 times bigger than population of Poland (20 millions vs 1-2 millions) today France is only 50% more populous (60 millions to 40 millions) so you need to introduce New World crops to Europe earlier or find Old World analogues.
Other thing that contributed to East-West dispairity is communism-just compare Finland to Baltic States. Marxism-Leninism is not good way to improve economy.
 
Introduction of New World crops (especially potatoes) partially reduced dispairity between Western and Eastern Europe-potatoes allowed massive growth of population in places like Poland and Russia. During Medieval times population of France was 10-20 times bigger than population of Poland (20 millions vs 1-2 millions) today France is only 50% more populous (60 millions to 40 millions) so you need to introduce New World crops to Europe earlier or find Old World analogues.
Other thing that contributed to East-West dispairity is communism-just compare Finland to Baltic States. Marxism-Leninism is not good way to improve economy.

Impact of communism is undeniable but lat’s face it, by the time of the WWI the Eastern Europe was lagging behind the “West” in the terms of a general prosperity and industrial development (I would be cautious about the “pure science”, and liberal arts).

Probably it can be argued that a need to deal with the “Asiatic” (by culture) neighbors did have a negative impact on the general development (to the best of my knowledge, the Balkan countries and even Hungary were not among the most industrially advanced places in Europe by the early XX) but why would this had to happen? After all, even Russian isolation from the West never was complete and the useful things like the firearms had been picked up. Religion-based cultural isolation? Definitely was a factor but was it inavoidable? Of course, it is tempting to assume that Russian history was to a great degree combination of the worst case scenarios.

Poland was not culturally isolated but it seems (it is up to you to correct me) that even in the Midfle Ages it was lagging behind the German neighbors. Of course, in the more recent period situation was made worse by the increasing internal disorder.

Is it plausible to assume that the big territories could be a problem of their own? In the Western Europe a greater population density more or less dictated a need of the intensive methods in everything while in the East the extensive methods would do?

Of course, the very premise of the universally successful “West” is highly questionable. Spain is definitely in the Western Europe and it was not an example of the most advanced and prosperous country. To a lesser degree the same could be said about the XIX century Italy.
 
Poland was lagging behind west Germany, but if compared to lands east of Elbe difference between western Poland and East Germany was not striking-Posen and West Prussia were no less prosperous than Brandenburg. Eastern Europan countries had two main disadvantages:
-they are cut off from 'open' seas, having access only to peripherial Baltic or Black Sea.
-they have continental climate. Unlike France or Britain, with mild, Atlantic winters, which allowed year-round grazing season. Longer grazing season = more cattle = more fertilizer (dung) = higher yields = higher population. In Eastern Europe breeds of livestock were not selected to be more productive-cow should be able to survive winter, not to give a lot of milk (which would simply kill her during time of hardship). At beginning of spring grazing season cattle was so weak, that it was unable to walk out of stables without help of peasants. Harsh climatic conditions also preserved serfdom and feudalism longer than in Western Europe (in extreme form it was close to chattel slavery in Russian Empire after Peter I, but before New World crops allowed switch from three field system to more effective crop-rotation system it was economic necessity-at least during harsh times landowners supported peasants with their own grain and cattle-death of their workforce was certainly not in their interest.
 
WWI the Eastern Europe was lagging behind the “West” in the terms of a general prosperity and industrial developmen
The problem was that Russia was ruled by reactionary autocrats and the Russian Orthodox Church was incredibly relevant. That said, Alexander II and III were reformers who were seriously modernizing most of the country (and therefore eastern europe) before Nicholas II brought back the reactionary forces and sent the unready russian peoples to the meat grinders. Stalin would go onto heavily industrialize russia, but it came at the borderline colonial exploitation of the Eastern Bloc.
Not to say the Tsars didn't seriously screw up Poland, Finland, the baltics or crimea but stalin took it to new heights
 
The problem was that Russia was ruled by reactionary autocrats and the Russian Orthodox Church was incredibly relevant. That said, Alexander II and III were reformers who were seriously modernizing most of the country (and therefore eastern europe) before Nicholas II brought back the reactionary forces and sent the unready russian peoples to the meat grinders. Stalin would go onto heavily industrialize russia, but it came at the borderline colonial exploitation of the Eastern Bloc.
Not to say the Tsars didn't seriously screw up Poland, Finland, the baltics or crimea but stalin took it to new heights

Russian rulers had been, indeed, autocrats, but were they uniformly “reactionary”? Term means one opposing the reforms and, if anything, there was more than one case of the too numerous reforms for country’s good. This applies even to Alexander II who was by most measures an open liberal.

Not that I’m trying to say anything nice about Nicholas but Witte continued to be Finance Minister and conducted a number of the important reforms, including currency reform, and organized construction of the Trans Siberian Railroad; Stolypin also conducted his reforms during his reign. Even the RJW, bad as it was, resulted with the significant reforms in the Russian army, de facto elimination of the position of Admiral General and modernization of theRussian navy. Plus, however unwillingly, he made Russia a constitutional monarchy.

Regarding the Baltic provinces, while Riga was the biggest port on the Baltic coast before 1700, it is not like these provinces were a shiny beacon of a progress and prosperity by the time of the Russian conquest. As a matter of fact, Riga preserved its rather obsolete guild system at least to the end of the XVIII and became one of the major industrial centers of the Russian empire only in the late XIX.

Screwing up Crimea is an interesting notion: are you implying that it would be better for everybody involved if the Crimean Khanate continued its existence, being a state heavily relying on raiding the neighbors and slave trade?

Finland was routinely used in the XVIII - early XIX as a battlefield of the Russian-Swedish wars and did not visibly suffered from getting a century of a peaceful existence, autonomy and ability to use its own language.
 
I don't know that much of the Tsars, only really knowing Ivan the Terrible. Peter and Catherine the Great, and the last three, so my views are admittedly cololred-if russia has a history of being behind and its greatest leaders were active reformers it makes sense that the have a lot of reactionary leaders. And i was mostly referrig to the exploitation of the peoples in the areas i mentioned
 
The aces up the sleave of the European peoples were the indented coastline, with access to three inland seas, and the relative proximity to the New World.
 
I don't know that much of the Tsars, only really knowing Ivan the Terrible. Peter and Catherine the Great, and the last three, so my views are admittedly cololred-if russia has a history of being behind and its greatest leaders were active reformers it makes sense that the have a lot of reactionary leaders. And i was mostly referrig to the exploitation of the peoples in the areas i mentioned

There is a problem with Ivan’s nickname: English translation, popular as it is, is not necessary correct: «Грозный» has many meanings and as applicable to Ivan the intended meaning was closer to “formidable”. Well, while we are on the subject, “War and Peace” is actually “War and society”, again, the most obvious but a wrong meaning of the world had been chosen. :)

Now, let’s be clear about “reformer” and “reactionary”. An implication that reform is always something liberal is plain wrong: it is just a change with the intent to improve something. Needless to say, than the unintended consequences can result in something opposite to the intention. “Reactionary” is something opposing a liberal reform but if such a reform produced bad results, is being a reactionary a bad thing? Bismarck called himself a reactionary.

Back to the subject, Ivan was an intensive reformer in administrative and military areas and his reign cost Tsardom something like 20- 25% of its population, caused a serious damage to economy and society in general which could not be fixed by the next two reigns paving the way to the Time of the Troubles.

Jumping to the Romanovs, the 1st Romanov, Michael, was to a remarkable degree lacking any talents but he inherited a country thoroughly destroyed by the years of the foreign intervention and civic war and, while he lost a war and apart of a territory, Russia survived as an independent state and was on its way up as a regional power.

Tsar Alexei also was not a brightest apple on a tree and not a starry-eyed reformer but Tsardom kept getting out of its sorry state and ended with adding a big chunk of a modern Ukraine. There were gradual but noticeable changes bringing Russia closer to the Western level.

His elder son, Fedor, continued father’s policy of the gradual changes but he died too young.

Peter was an obsessed reformer. He enforced superficial “Western culture” (mostly in the terms of a dress code, furniture, architecture and the shape of the drinking parties in which females had been now forced to participate) and conquered few small pieces of a territory (after couple decades of an intensive fighting). His reforms created a terrible economic model which plagued Russia at least until Emancipation of the Serfs. All that at the cost of approximately the same 20 - 25% of the population. He also finalized a model of an absolute monarchy in Russia (“reactionary reforms”?) and after his death quite a few things had to be rolled back because it was impossible to keep spending 80 - 90% of a budget on military needs.

Few following reigns were not remarkable by any significant reforms (except for an avalanche of them during the very short reign of Peter III). Things did not get better but neither did they get worse.

Catherine II was not that “expensive” in the terms of the human losses but she was giving away the state peasants into private serfdom by the tens of thousands making fundamental problem of the Russian economy even worse and, objectively, slowing Russian industrial development. Needless to say that she was a great reformer and conducted a number of important territorial acquisitions. Was she a progressive or a reactionary? Ah yes, her reign besides many true accomplishments is also remarkable by an unusual, even for Russia, level of wastefulness and inefficiency.

Her son, Paul, during his short reign tried to restore some kind of an order and discipline by reglamenting clothes and hairstyles of his subjects. He also managed to give away more state peasants than his mother. Of course, he was a reactionary and he made a mistake of siding with Nappy against the Brits so his reign was cut short.

His two sons, Alexander I and Nicholas I, were ...er... “reformers” (especially in the areas of the military and civic uniforms) and by the end of Nicholas’ reign Russia was in such a deep s—t that even his son, Alexander II, was able to see the problem.

Alexander II conducted a number of the progressive reforms and as a reward had been killed. By the end of his reign Russian finances were in a terrible shape, industries were not developing due to the low tariffs on the imports, agriculture remained backward and peasant poor, reformed army managed to lose its reputation in a victorious war (thanks to his personal interventions), foreign policy was fundamentally screwed up, educated developed a habit of opposing the government as a matter of principle, expenses of the Grand Dukes were out of control, his own son openly despised him. It took him to be assassinated to get some appreciation.

Alexander III was a reactionary, which did not prevent him from conducting a number of reforms which triggered development of the Russian industry, made the railroads profitable, put spending under control, established gold standard for Russian currency, etc. International prestige was restored and proclaimed peaceful policy contributed to maintaining peace in Europe. Needless to say that he was despised and mocked by the educated classes for not being progressive or intellectual.

Nicholas II was really bad and clearly reactionary but Russia became a constitutional monarchy and economic development continued in a reasonably high rate.

So I’m not quite sure that the course of the active reforms was such a good thing in the case of Russia. Perhaps the best thing was for the government to keep its activities down to a necessary minimum?
 
I'd say yes, there's no geographic density to East-Central vs Western Europe.

On specific points, contrary to OP, I'd counter:

- Being more isolated from the steppe and Southwest Asia I would guess did not really help Western Europe in any significant way over East Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Czechia); it may have done relative to those countries a timeline where powers from that region expanded into East Central Europe, but they mostly did not.

- Being close to the Atlantic probably did not give an insurmountable advantage to Western Europe, and probably was a disadvantage relative to being in the center of all European countries on trade routes. You're switching more long distance international trade over the Atlantic for being less enmeshed in European trade, and as Europe is at the center of world technological innovation for most of the "Rise of Western Europe", that doesn't seem like a clear advantage. Central regions like Bavaria, Switzerland, Austria were often advantaged relative to the Western European periphery.

(Long distance trade can certainly be more meaningful than close trade when there are technological differences between very separated regions and opportunity for catch-up, as is the experience of Japan and south coastal China, reversing historical gradients there, or some scarce resource that's absolutely critical to development. But by the time Western Europe could've benefited from this, it seems like most of the important Asian innovations - paper, printing, gunpowder, etc - had long since already diffused over land to Europe).

- I would point out that re: "Western Europe would be filled either with sparsely populated rump states", today, Western Europe actually is mostly sparsely populated compared to East-Central Europe.
Re past populations in the medieval era, I'd note it's worth checking out the demographic tables: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_demography#Demographic_tables_of_Europe's_population. I've charted these as percentiles here: https://imgur.com/a/uem1q42.

Seems to me like the regions regarded as clearly broadly Eastern European today and broadly Western Europe today have had fairly even populations going back to 1000 AD. However, that depends on how you want to place Germany, Italy and Northern Europe (Central geographically in Europe, arguably Western culturally). A broad area of Poland+Moldova+Bohemia+Hungary comparable in size to France seems like it would have been if anything more populous or at least very close, even back then? (Northern Poland probably gains demographically from the potato, but so does Northern France, etc. meaning that gains from that sort of cancel?).
 
So, it seems the thread-consensus can be summed up as “earlier global warming = milder climate in E. Europe’s interior = bigger E. European population = more prosperity?”
In Eastern Europe breeds of livestock were not selected to be more productive-cow should be able to survive winter, not to give a lot of milk (which would simply kill her during time of hardship). At beginning of spring grazing season cattle was so weak, that it was unable to walk out of stables without help of peasants.
Can you provide citations for the underlined part?
 
At first glance it appears that climate is the clue to Western europes perceived opulance (not sure that's the right word).

However Mongols and repeated Ottoman attacks certainly didn't help much. Plus plague. I think it's sheer geography.
 
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