Is there a snowball's chance in hell of Poland defeating the Red Army in 1939?

[Deleted member 1487]

Possibly. IIRC Hitler tried to get Poland in the Axis. Poland refused, fearing becoming a German client-state. If, for whatever reason the Soviets attacked first and accepting German assistance is the only way to not become the latest SSR, Poland probaby would bite the bullet.

As for whether Hitler decided to go "Kill all the Poles" after the war is another issue. But he was capable of impressive mental gymnastics to fit an ally into his worldview.

If he can call the Japanese "honorary Aryans" then surely he could find some excuse for Poland, like they are a "proper civilization" due to historic contact/being neighbors with Prussia or other German states. Or some excuse how they were changed by the Partitions or how the "real" evil Slavs are those dirty Russians. Allowances were made for the other minor Axis members (Hungary, Romania), so, as unpalatable as an alliance with Germany might be to the Poles I doubt Hitler would still go the "kill them all" route after a hypothetical Germano-Polish/Soviet War.

Also, I think someone mentioned it earlier but what would Poland's other neighbors do in the event of a Soviet invasion? Would Hungary or Romania stand with Poland? And how might that affect the outcome?

If Poland were to make a deal with the devil they would be a client state like Hungary was: dependent and pretty much and appendage of the German economy and foreign policy.

 

[thaddeus]

Sure--the German Reich will defend its heroic Polish neighbors against Bolshevik aggression. Of course in return, it will get Danzig and the Corridor, with Poland being compensated with Soviet territory. ("You want access to the sea? The Black Sea is also a sea!")

That about sums it up. Poland can't win without the Reich throwing in and if they do they end up the Reich's bitch politically.

Poland loses the corridor, but gets it somewhat made up by Russian land.

my scenario, considered a real possibility at the time, is that Germany (with Hungary) invades Romania not Poland.

not sure Poland could/would ever be maneuvered into role Romania occupied?

do think it possible that Poland operates somewhat like Bulgaria? no offensive actions but possibly other tacit military support?

 

[Agent of SHIELD]

If Poland were to make a deal with the devil they would be a client state like Hungary was: dependent and pretty much and appendage of the German economy and foreign policy.

Oh, I was not denying that at all. Just stating in a reply to the other poster that I thought it unlikely that Hitler would snap one day and decide to kill all the Poles. From my understanding OTL Poland knew they'd be a literal puppet, which is why they rejected the offer.

 

[seraphim74]

IMO Poles had a chance to stop/ repell first wave of the Soviet attack. Second wave will break Polish lines and that would be it.
The terrain will not favour the Poles. OTOH it may cause some problems to the Soviets too - in Eastern Poland infrastructure was not so great, there were relatively few roads and railways and so Soviet logistics can have troble - I do not know how Soviets logistics train (trucks etc) looked like in 1939.
The Red Army has numbers and, to some degree, also technological advantage. OTOH, as the Winter War showed (and Soviet invasion of Poland IOTL) Soviet tactics sucked. The theory was good, but its execution was... far from perfect.
Poles are much better prepared for the war with the Soviets. The had been preparing for it since 1921. While Polish plan against Germany was made hastily, defensive war against USSR was planned almost non-stop.

However, Poland on its own was unable to fight a prolonged war. Without very significant support from the west Poles will simply run out of planes, tanks, ammunition and eventually the men too. Polish economy in 1939 was unable to sustain a prolonged war effort.

Originally posted by Rear Admiral Doorman

When Germany attacked, they made efforts to cripple the Polish Air Force on the ground.

And they failed. Most of Polish planes were already in wartime bases. Luftwaffe destroyed only some old training aircrafts.

 

[Kevin Renner]

Prior to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact the British and French were talking to Stalin to build an anti-Hitler coalition, but Poland refused to allow the Soviets on their soil as part of that deal because they knew the Soviets wouldn't leave after the help was no longer needed, so Stalin worked with Hitler instead. If Poland had to turn to Germany for help they know that that would mean becoming Germany's vassal and that's no better than being occupied by the Soviets, so they'd likely decline.

Didn't one of the Poles make the comment, " with Germany we will lose our freedom, but with Russia we will lose our souls". Or words to that effect

 

[thaddeus]

If Poland were to make a deal with the devil they would be a client state like Hungary was: dependent and pretty much and appendage of the German economy and foreign policy.

my scenario, considered a real possibility at the time, is that Germany (with Hungary) invades Romania not Poland.

not sure Poland could/would ever be maneuvered into role Romania occupied?

do think it possible that Poland operates somewhat like Bulgaria? no offensive actions but possibly other tacit military support?

not sure that it would look like such a bad deal at the time if Hungary and Bulgaria were gaining territory? as opposed to (Western Allied) Czechoslovakia and (under my scenario) Romania?

to the OP about Poland defeating USSR? my opinion almost zero chance the Soviets WOULD invade without prior agreement with Germany (per OTL.)

 

[jmc247]

to the OP about Poland defeating USSR? my opinion almost zero chance the Soviets WOULD invade without prior agreement with Germany (per OTL.)

I think Stalin certainly might, but probably not in 39. By 42 its a very different matter.

 

[Clandango]

Here is a no doubt touchy subject. If the Poles did get a sattelite status like some of the Balkan states, what might their position on deporting Jews be? Or might the Germans decide since Poland had half of Europe's Jewish people that they would just dump them in there?

 

[jmc247]

Here is a no doubt touchy subject. If the Poles did get a sattelite status like some of the Balkan states, what might their position on deporting Jews be? Or might the Germans decide since Poland had half of Europe's Jewish people that they would just dump them in there?

Most likely Germany would send them there. They tried to start to send them on trains there OTL before the outbreak of war and Poland sent the trains back. Here they wouldn't be in quite the same political position.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Here is a no doubt touchy subject. If the Poles did get a sattelite status like some of the Balkan states, what might their position on deporting Jews be? Or might the Germans decide since Poland had half of Europe's Jewish people that they would just dump them in there?

That's a complicated issue, because Hitler did approach the Poles about the 'Jewish Question' pre-war and assumed because Poland was actually more anti-semitic that they would be up for killing the Jews along with him; of course they were horrified and rebuffed him when he alluded to it. Now, they had their own pogroms in the late 1930s and were actively training extremist zionists to fight the British in Palestine to drive them out and then allow for unlimited immigration of Jews from Europe:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehi_(group)#Evolution_and_tactics_of_the_organization

Many Lehi combatants received professional training. Some attended the state military academy in Civitavecchia, in Fascist Italy.[37] Others received military training from instructors of the Polish Armed Forces in 1938–1939. This training was conducted in Trochenbrod (Zofiówka) in Wołyń Voivodeship, Podębin near Łódź, and the forests around Andrychów. They were taught how to use explosives. One of them reported later:
Poles treated terrorism as a science. We have mastered mathematical principles of demolishing constructions made of concrete, iron, wood, bricks and dirt.[37]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avraham_Stern

Stern developed a plan to train 40,000 young Jews to sail for Palestine and take over the country from the British colonial authorities. He succeeded in enlisting the Polish government in this effort. The Poles began training Irgun members and arms were set aside, but then Germany invaded Poland and began the Second World War. This ended the training, and immigration routes were cut off.[8] Stern was in Palestine at the time and was arrested the same night the war began. He was incarcerated together with the entire High Command of the Irgun in the Jerusalem Central Prison and Sarafand Detention Camp.

Basically the Polish policy seems to have been to export their Jewish population was feasible and were promoting groups that would enable that. The Nazis were working along similar lines in the 1930s:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haavara_Agreement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madagascar_Plan

Probably the Poles as German clients would be able to continue that policy, potentially with German help, but so long as Germany didn't annex Poland like IOTL they probably would avoid anything to do with the Polish Jews other than to keep them away from Germany; remember in 1939 the Jewish population in the Reich had mostly emigrated, so they weren't exactly keen on taking on more Jews.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_Poland#Growing_antisemitism
Depending on what happens during the Polish-Soviet war Hitler might well then be able to convince Poland that the Jews were collaborating with the Soviets, as the Judeo-Bolshevik conspiracy propaganda was the most effective Nazi propaganda in Eastern Europe, which they used to get the locals to help murder their local Jewish populations (also check out "Bloodlands" for more on this):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_Bolshevism

The label "Judeo-Bolshevism" was used in Nazi Germany to equate Jews with communists, implying that the communist movement served Jewish interests and/or that all Jews were communists.[5][page needed] According to Hannah Arendt it was "the most efficient fiction of Nazi Propaganda".[6] In Poland before World War II, the label Żydokomuna was used in the same way to allege that the Jews were conspiring with the USSR to capture Poland.

The Poles if they were angry enough might well take out a lot of hatred on their Jewish population with Nazi backing, but also their Ukrainians and any other collaborators. It would not be a good situation and a lot might happen under the context of the cover of the fighting when no media was looking and later claim they died in the course of the fighting or by Soviet hands.

Potentially they could then force out the Jewish Poles into the USSR during/after the war.

A lot depends on the context of the German-Polish relationship and what aid is provided; I highly doubt Stalin would invade without Germany doing it first precisely because Stalin was afraid of a united Europe against him, which this would definitely trigger, plus it would give Hitler all the cover he needed for his war on the USSR. The only way I could see this happening is perhaps if Trotsky ended up replacing Lenin in the 1920s and launched and new invasion of Poland out of fear of Fascist Europe uniting against him, but that would be before 1939 for sure, potentially in the early/mid 1930s as the Nazis were rearming, but before they got too powerful.

 

[Balwin]

If Poland forms an alliance with The Nazis against the communist threat then the answer is yes.

 

[Snaut]

my scenario, considered a real possibility at the time, is that Germany (with Hungary) invades Romania not Poland.

not sure Poland could/would ever be maneuvered into role Romania occupied?

do think it possible that Poland operates somewhat like Bulgaria? no offensive actions but possibly other tacit military support?

I suppose it is not impossible (although having Germany invade Romania, with which Poland has an alliance, won't help). If the western allies make it clear that they aren't interested in fighting in 1939, Poland won't really have any other choice.

Here is a no doubt touchy subject. If the Poles did get a sattelite status like some of the Balkan states, what might their position on deporting Jews be? Or might the Germans decide since Poland had half of Europe's Jewish people that they would just dump them in there?

I find it hard to imagine Poland participating in the Holocaust willingly, refusing Hitler's demands the way Hungary did. It was certainly an antisemitic country, but that antisemitism was of a completely different nature then the genocidal-metaphysical-racist type found in Germany.

 

[thaddeus]

my scenario, considered a real possibility at the time, is that Germany (with Hungary) invades Romania not Poland.

not sure Poland could/would ever be maneuvered into role Romania occupied?

do think it possible that Poland operates somewhat like Bulgaria? no offensive actions but possibly other tacit military support?

I suppose it is not impossible (although having Germany invade Romania, with which Poland has an alliance, won't help). If the western allies make it clear that they aren't interested in fighting in 1939, Poland won't really have any other choice.

not sure what the Allies would do after invasion of Romania, they WERE treaty bound to aid them, but in my scenario the invasion is Germany-Hungary, with USSR and Bulgaria occupying large parts of the country afterwards.

with Poland forced into Axis possible the only request of them is to move their forces to eastern part of country? (and of course some onerous economic demands)