Irene and Sandy: A Tale of Two Hurricanes

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It’s Friday August 19, 2011. More specifically, it’s 8pm Eastern Daylight Savings Time. Tropical Depression Nine just developed in the central Northern Atlantic Ocean. Its maximum sustained winds were 30 mph and its minimum pressure was 1008 mbar. If it were to become a tropical storm at 40 mph, its name would be Irene. It was located roughly 625 miles west of the Windward islands in the Caribbean, a popular tourist destination for Americans during the summer months. These islands, plus the Leeward Islands just to the North, were told to pay attention to the system, as it was expected to be either a tropical storm or category 1 hurricane at the time of its approach (Sunday-Monday for the Windward Islands and Monday-Tuesday for the Leeward Islands). Some Americans along the eastern seaboard were cancelling their late summer vacation plans. However, meteorologists largely advised against it since its impact was predicted not to be major. That being said, the Southeast coast of the US from Key West, Florida to the Maryland-Delaware border was told to pay attention to the system. Some models were expecting that it would make landfall in the South Atlantic in a week or so. After two seasons of a hurricane-free summer in the United States, a third might not be a charm and a rotten end to a warm, wonderful summer was not out of the cards. Still too soon to tell for sure, as some models predicted it would go out to see, but it was enough for Americans to begin worrying.

 

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It was now Saturday August 20, 2011. The time is 2am EDT. At this point, almost all Americans along the Eastern Seaboard are asleep. The tropical depression was now 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and its maximum sustained wind speed was 35 mph. Its pressure increased to 1007 mbar. In the coming days, Nine was expected to enter an area more favorable for development and to be given the name “Irene” as a tropical storm. The showers and thunderstorms surrounding the circulation had become more organized. Currently, the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico were in the path of the system, with the former under a tropical storm watch and the latter soon expected to come under a hurricane watch. More Americans were expected to cancel their end of the summer vacation plans. Fearing the worst, cruise lines and airplane flights into the Caribbean region were cancelled at the last minute. The models soon became split in half, with one group of models having the eventual tropical storm and hurricane to curve back out to see after passing through the Caribbean while the other half had it make landfall as a hurricane in the southeastern United States, generally anywhere from Miami, Florida to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. None of this was a surprise, but would be a surprise would come later and horrifically catch many Americans off guard as they were up and about.

 

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The time was 8am EDT on August 20, 2011. The sun has risen for most Americans east of the Pacific Coast. On the Atlantic Coast, meanwhile, several people have already woken up and begun their days. For some it is their last chance to take vacations before the end of the summer. For others, particularly kids, it is their last weekend before going back to school. Some people are spending their Saturday at the sunny beach and are preparing to go in the morning hours. Others are stuck in the rain and are instead going to watch a movie. But here’s what they all have in common. Most were generally not paying attention to the weather, particularly not to the tropics. By then, Tropical Depression had developed into Tropical Storm Irene. Its maximum sustained winds had reached the 40 mph threshold after twelve hours. A tropical storm warning had already been in effect for the Lesser Antilles, from which Irene was now 400 miles away and was moving at a fast clip towards the chain at more than 20 mph to the west-northwest. What was more, though, was that Puerto Rico was now under a hurricane watch. This meant that hurricane conditions (maximum wind speeds of 74 mph or greater) were possible for the island within 48 hours of the arrival of tropical-storm force winds. Beyond that, Irene’s future remained uncertain. While more models were starting to predict a landfall on the mainland United states, it was still not a consensus by any means. More people on the mainland were cancelling travel plans to Puerto Rico and the surrounding areas, especially those in Miami, Florida and New York City with large Puerto Rican populations. It was now believed that if Irene aimed for Puerto Rico like it was now predicted, then it could very well be a dress rehearsal for the mainland United States if the models kept moving closer to a consensus and were correct.

 

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It’s 2pm EDT on August 20, 2011. Tropical storm Irene now had a wind speed of 45 mph and is becoming better organized by the hour. It roughly maintained its forward velocity of 20 mph to the west-northwest and was 250 miles away from the Lesser Antilles. Tropical storm warnings were in full effect across the Windward and especially Leeward Islands of the Caribbean. Hurricane watches were then put in place for the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. This rapid development of the tropical cyclone named Irene stunned meteorologists and the American public alike because it left behind many questions such as the possibility of global warming making this sort of development the new normal heading into the future. Hurricane experts would later use this as a reference for research. The National Hurricane Center then sent an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft to further investigate Irene for further possible development of the tropical storm. What the public had their eyes on though, aside from its rapid intensification, was its projected path. It was clearly expected to brush through the Leeward Islands then pass north of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola all within 72 hours. But what concerned them is what came next. Irene was expected to pass through the Bahamas and approach the continental United States. Floridians, particularly those in South Florida, were concerned as they were now in the cone of uncertainty (with it reaching the area by Thursday August 25) and feared this could be the worst disaster to hit the Miami metropolitan area since Hurricane Andrew in August 1992. But this would be only the beginning of a mass hysteria along America's eastern seaboard.

 

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On August 20, 2011 at 8PM Eastern Daylight Savings Time, Irene continued to intensify rapidly. Its maximum sustained wind speed was 60 mph and its minimum pressure 1000 millibars. As of the advisory, Tropical Storm Irene was located 190 miles east of Dominica and 215 miles East-Southeast of Guadalupe. Its westward movement hadn't changed but its forwards speed increased to 22 mph. Hurricane watches were in effect for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands and Tropical storm warnings remained in place for Curacao, St. Martin, Barbados, Dominica, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, and the British Virgin Islands. A hurricane watch was expected to be placed on the Dominican Republic on Sunday morning. As far its projected path went, but was expected to pass through the Leeward Islands early Sunday and move through the Northeast Caribbean Sea later that day. On Monday, it was expected to approach the Dominican Republic on it eastern shore if not make landfall. After that, Haiti was anticipated to receive effects from Irene on Tuesday, Cuba and the Bahamas were to be impacted on Wednesday into Thursday, and Florida was to be the main target of the storm, as a hurricane, on Thursday into Friday (August 25-26). With that, most Americans on the East Coast from the Carolinas to Canada collectively sighed with relief; but Florida was to come under the gun, breaking the six-year drought of hurricanes hitting the state. If it were expected to remain the course, then officials in Miami, Florida were to announce an evacuation order on Monday and declare a state of emergency then. Sunday would be used to further monitor the situation. The nervousness hung in the air in Miami and only continued to thicken, expecting to remain hanging in the air through next week. For the majority of Americans, though, continued their evening plans as if nothing ever happened. The notable exception were vacationers expecting to head to the Caribbean, with many continuing to cancel their plans at the last minute for cruises and vacations not only to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, but the Bahamas too.

A/N: Sorry for not updating in a couple of weeks, I've been pretty busy with schoolwork and finding a summer job. And thus the writing style my not be a strong as it was previously. I will try to curtail that in future updates. If anyone wants to check out another timeline I'm doing concurrently, it's called "The Sun Never Rises" and it's about a scenario where the Confederacy wins the Civil War. A bunch of twists and turns are coming so stay tuned.

 

[PGSBHurricane]

As of 2:00 a.m. on Sunday August 21, 2011, Irene was located 75 miles east-southeast of Guadalupe, 120 miles southeast of Antigua, and still had a maximum sustained wind speed of 60 mph and minimum pressure of 999 millibars. Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, Dominica, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Anguilla, and Montserrat were being battered by heavy rain and under tropical storm warnings. A hurricane watch remained in effect for the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Despite the fact that most Americans were asleep, they were encouraged to monitor the storm through their local meteorological services and the National Hurricane Center. Moving 22 mph in a westerly direction, it was expected to slow down during the next 40 hours and pass through the Leeward Islands, the Northeastern Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic by Monday. By then it was expected to be a hurricane. Those territories could have received up to 10 inches of rain if the predictions were correct, with life-threatening flash floods and mudslides possible in areas with steep terrain and poor areas that were especially vulnerable. To top it off, 1-3 feet in storm surge was expected. There were some minor changes in the projected path heading forward for Irene. The mountainous terrains of Haiti and Cuba were expected to interfere with the storm's intensity and weaken it into a tropical storm before heading into the Straights of Florida. After that, it was expected to either pass between the Bahamas and Florida and make landfall in southeast Florida as a Category 1 or 2 Hurricane or in the Florida Keys and Everglades as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 Hurricane. Even if it wasn't strong, hitting an urban area such as Miami could be disastrous regardless. Seven years earlier, a category 2 hurricane named Frances made landfall in Jupiter but its effects were felt across the entire state and caused $9-10 billion in damage int he state alone in 2004. Anyone in America (most likely in the West) watching this update took a sigh of relief, believing that this storm would not be as destructive as once feared. Still, preparations would be expected to continue in Florida the following Monsignor and afternoon as some still feared for the worst. There were a few more models saying that the storm could make landfall in the Carolinas as a more powerful category 2 or 3 hurricane and one or two models suggesting that Long Island, New Jersey, and New York City were the primary targets. If any of those scenarios were to come true, Irene's potential wrath was underestimated by the majority of America who would be taken by surprise.

A/N: I'm back and I also made a new timeline in which the South secedes from the USA during the Constitutional Convention (there will be a new update by the end of the week).