Stolengood
Banned
Wait, what? Garfield never came back after serving his term... because he was dead.However, him pulling a Garfield? No chance!
I think you mean a Cleveland... and, LBH? Please make him pull one.
Iran-Contra and the Fall of Ronald Reagan
- Thread starter LHB
- Start date
I think you mean a Cleveland... and, LBH? Please make him pull one.
Blah... Never was good at Gilded Age Presidents...Wait, what? Garfield never came back after serving his term... because he was dead.
I think you mean a Cleveland... and, LBH? Please make him pull one.
And, sure why not? That leaves 1992 wide open, since Carter's ineligible to run again if he wins.
Hmm... President Paul Tsongas? I love that idea, what about you?Works for me.
Cuomo and Clinton seem like good choices. I think a lot of people would prefer to have Democratic candidates who aren't inside the Beltway.
Pangur
Donor
Sweet mother of God!! I did see the dodge to get Regan of the hook however the rest of the guys are deep in the brown smelly stuff.
A few queries
What happened to the treason charges?
Who determines the sentences now that they have been found guilty?
The administration still have an issue with the Reagab bit, namely for how long was he no longer up to the job? That been so how will that play out?
A few queries
What happened to the treason charges?
Who determines the sentences now that they have been found guilty?
The administration still have an issue with the Reagab bit, namely for how long was he no longer up to the job? That been so how will that play out?
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The Senate shied away from convicting any of the accused on the treason charges. There were fears of what precedent could be set if they were convicted of treason. The other major reason was a desire to save some face for the federal government; any major official like that going down for treason on top of everything else is going to make everyone look much worse by tainted association with the whole mess.
That's determined in criminal and civil court depending on the charges. The impeachment proceedings only impact if the defendant remains in public office, it's going to be up to the Independent Counsel to take everyone to the woodshed.
So far no clear consensus has emerged on when exactly Reagan lost it cause the GOP has REALLY put itself in a bind by taking that tack to begin with. The deteriorating mental condition line really only reduces the already tremendous damage of having the last two out of the three Republican presidents since Eisenhower removed from office in disgrace. If they claim he was losing it early when the deal first started they're implying the United States was being run by a man of questionable mental stability. If they claim he lost it later on when the direct sales began that doesn't absolve him of responsibility completely and still says he was not all there for a substantial portion of his term in office.
No matter how the narrative ultimately shakes out it isn't good for the outgoing administration or his party. This isn't helped by the fact that at least some of the Reagan loyalists aren't going to go out quietly and their party line rejects the idea that the President was anything less than fit for the job; after all the Presidential Physician gave him a clean bill of health not even a month before he was drummed out. Regardless of how the chips fall Poppy Bush is in for a very rough election. The Reaganites all see him as a traitor and the rest of the party is all too willing to throw him under the bus so they can put the whole ugly mess behind them.
Charter member of the pain caucus. I don't like people who are for big cuts to Medicare and Social Security.
President Paul Simon. Yeah.
So... no response, LHB, to the idea of "Jimmeh" pulling a Cleveland?
I'm thinking no on that one but I could see Jimmy giving the keynote speech or assuming some kind of elder statesmanlike role for the '88 convention. As other posters have indicated him being the last US President since Johnson or even arguably Kennedy who wasn't seen as crooked in some way or another makes him loom much larger TTL than he would OTL.
Stolengood
Banned
Ahhh... he could be something of a symbol for that election, then; America cleansing itself of the stain of Republicanism.
I think TTL Iran-Contra is going to put Reagan just one small notch above Nixon but unlike Nixon there isn't going to be the change of opinion later on. He will get points for his work on nuclear disarmament but that's going to be overshadowed by his domestic legacy, his military interventions, and Iran-Contra. In light of the official conclusion that Ronald Reagan was at least partially senile for an indeterminate time during his second term some of his actions, like for example Grenada and Lebanon, are going to looked on less as toughness and more like the fumbles of a man slowly losing grasp on reality. He's definitely not getting credit for the fall of the Soviet Union. To further muddy the waters OTL the question of when he started to lose it is still hotly debated. Most experts agree it happened at some point in his second term but precisely when depends on who you ask. TTL this issue is far more central to Reagan's legacy so that question is more hotly debated.
On a broader scale Iran-Contra is going to have a bigger impact on the public I think than Watergate did. Watergate, comparing it to Iran-Contra, was a purely partisan abuse of power put in motion by a paranoid man in secret. Iran-Contra saw most of the Cabinet testify at one point or another that they had some awareness of a plan to disregard the will of Congress by selling arms to an enemy of the United States. Whether or not Reagan knew what was going on that's bigger than Watergate was on several levels. Unlike other corruption scandals in US history which have usually focused on the personal take from the proceedings this is an example of political corruption used to subvert the political process.
Adding insult to injury is the implications of a senile Reagan. If he was suffering from Alzheimer's or something similar to such a degree that he was unable to execute the duties of his office how did the entire Capitol miss this? How was a man who was declared to be unfit to hold office due to mental infirmity able to stay in office for so long without action by the rest of the government? There's going to be a lot more people questioning the general competence of the American political system TTL since the unfolding and resolution of Iran-Contra would bring a lot of very uncomfortable questions to the foreground. At the very minimum I think it would be safe to say the trend of the imperial presidency is going to reverse sharply as a consequence with a bigger push towards government accountability. Jim Wright's impending fall from grace and the Keating Five scandal will only accelerate that push.
The 90s are going to be a time of a lot more political flux and uncertainty in the US than they were OTL when coupled with the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. Globalization, neo-liberalism, and China's rise as an economic power are still major trends that aren't touched much by the scandal and it's shakeup of DC power. How those trends manifest will be different but they haven't been averted.
Love the last installment, was not expecting the 25th to be invoked, but in light of events, it was probably the best way to salvage Ronnie's presidency. However I had a quick question about Poppy's ascension to the Presidency. Should H.W. by the language of the 25th Amendment, be considered an Acting President? It seems like the drafters of the amendment wanted to keep the option of the President being able to reassure his duties open and not make it a mechanism to bar the President to return to office. Would we need Reagan to sign a letter that he is officially resigning from the presidency to ensure that Bush can be sworn as the 41st president? Keep it comming
Some more potential major things that could indeed change depending on who is in power in the 90's will indeed be the breakup of Yugoslavia (with the massacre at Serbrintsa *sp), the fall of Somalia into a failed state and the Rwandan Genocide. Depending on who you put in power and what the political state is, there will be some serious butterflies to these major events going on the world in relation to America's foreign policy.
Additionally, should the military budget be cut by whoever takes over after HW Bush's term is up, one thing that could be continued to be funded is NASA, which could have major implications not only to science and space exploration, but the fact is that NASA has invented quite a number of things we use everyday. Perhaps, as a possible distraction to the political horrors going on in America, they fund a Moon base and/or more rovers to Mars and/or Venus.
On the more social side, there could be some real implications as to how the Drug war is funded and run, the possibility of changing the schedule of Marijuana should the religious right who supported Nixon take a real hit, along with some changes to OTL Clinton's don't ask don't tell policy, etc.
Additionally, should the military budget be cut by whoever takes over after HW Bush's term is up, one thing that could be continued to be funded is NASA, which could have major implications not only to science and space exploration, but the fact is that NASA has invented quite a number of things we use everyday. Perhaps, as a possible distraction to the political horrors going on in America, they fund a Moon base and/or more rovers to Mars and/or Venus.
On the more social side, there could be some real implications as to how the Drug war is funded and run, the possibility of changing the schedule of Marijuana should the religious right who supported Nixon take a real hit, along with some changes to OTL Clinton's don't ask don't tell policy, etc.
HW leaving out the "Acting" part is a slip on his part. Whether it's unintentional or Freudian is up to you
It seems like the drafters of the amendment wanted to keep the option of the President being able to reassure his duties open and not make it a mechanism to bar the President to return to office. Would we need Reagan to sign a letter that he is officially resigning from the presidency to ensure that Bush can be sworn as the 41st president? Keep it comming
That's a possibility I didn't consider. If a now-declared mentally unfit Ronald Reagan tries to fight for his office that would REALLY drag the mess out. Would he gracefully accept defeat or go down kicking and screaming?
I'll get an update up soon for the next few months which will set the stage for the primaries and the 1988 election. In the Democratic primaries we will see Joe Biden, Al Gore, Gary Hart, Jesse Jackson, Dick Gephardt, and Paul Simon seeking the nomination just like OTL along with some other candidates jumping in the fray. The Republicans, in the meantime, are going to be in for a really rough ride as is the Washington establishment in general. The narrative for the end of the Cold War is going to be very different from OTL.
HW leaving out the "Acting" part is a slip on his part. Whether it's unintentional or Freudian is up to you
That's a possibility I didn't consider. If a now-declared mentally unfit Ronald Reagan tries to fight for his office that would REALLY drag the mess out. Would he gracefully accept defeat or go down kicking and screaming?
I'll get an update up soon for the next few months which will set the stage for the primaries and the 1988 election. In the Democratic primaries we will see Joe Biden, Al Gore, Gary Hart, Jesse Jackson, Dick Gephardt, and Paul Simon seeking the nomination just like OTL along with some other candidates jumping in the fray. The Republicans, in the meantime, are going to be in for a really rough ride as is the Washington establishment in general. The narrative for the end of the Cold War is going to be very different from OTL.
I agree that it would be very interesting to see a Reagan v. Bush slug it out on holding out for the Presidency. But It would kinda be a retread, Drew explored the issue realy well in Fear and Loathing '72 TL with the Wallace and Katzenbach fight.
While I do think Nancy would be a big issue in trying to stoke Reagan to fight for his job. I think you also have to remember that most of his inner circle has already left the White House or joined up with the "Acting President", so there could be inside pressure for Reagan to submit a formal recognition of resignation, in order to pull what's left of the administration out of the murkiness of the 25th Amendment. I think he has to resign, so the Vice President formally accede to the office as the 41st President.
Stolengood
Banned
That thing is waaaay too long to plausibly read, now; if this is a retread, in shorter form, of something I'll probably never be able to get around to reading, I'm open to it.
That thing is waaaay too long to plausibly read, now; if this is a retread, in shorter form, of something I'll probably never be able to get around to reading, I'm open to it.
Here's the TL;DR of that section:
Wallace goes into a medically-induced coma since he is suffering from the strains of office plus the wounds from his assassination attempt and the cabinet votes via the 25th Amendment that he is medically unable to act as president, so Katzenbach (his VP) becomes acting president.
Once Wallace comes out of the coma, he sends the required letter to both the Speaker of the House & President pro tempore of the Senate saying that he is able to resume the presidency. However, Katzenbach and a majority of the cabinet write a second letter stating that Wallace is not fit to return to office. A panel convenes to review if Wallace can indeed return to office and Wallace, in order to make it impossible for Katzenbach to undermine him again, goes to the committee hearing (which is not necessary, since all the Constitution says is he has to submit his letter to Congress) and convinces them that he is fit enough to resume the office in a dramatic display (and then, once safely out of view, collapses in pain from his effort).