Interesting WI for post-1945 Scandinavia

[Happy Nihilist]

What if the Soviets refuse to leave Bornholm? What would the effect be?

Soviet invasion of Finland is a big obvious one, which no doubt would lead to Sweden joining NATO and a huge refugee crisis. If there's no NATO at all then I think some kind of state union between Sweden, Norway and Denmark is in the cards, with at least shared defence and single market policies.

 

[Gugu]

There are many TL of the Cold War period for other European countries, but for Denmark, Norway and Sweden, they do not seem to have received much attention. Apart from occupation by the Soviet Union in World War III, and the near improbability of a communist and military coup, What events could change the history of the Scandinavian countries and liberate them from the wonderful but boring hegemony of the Social Democratic Party?

I have some ideas:
Bertil Ohlin formed a non-socialist government in the 1948 Swedish general election and successfully implemented Swedish-style New Deal liberalism, allowing the Swedish People's Party to replace the Social Democratic Party.
In Norway, Farmers' Party chose to disband due to its pro-Nazi history during World War II, and the Christian Democratic Party, which split from the Norwegian Freedom Party, decided to return. Conservative Party also merged or formed an alliance with the Liberal Party in order to create a unified right wing party. In this way, Norway has a political party similar to the Italian Christian Democratic Party, forming a two-party system with the Norwegian Labor Party, and even gaining advantages by inducing the split of the Labor Party.
Denmark's Social Democrats are not as strong as those in Sweden and Norway, and they need a coalition with left-wing liberals to stay in power. There are many ways to keep the Danish Social Democrats out of power. I think it is an interesting idea that Mogens Glistrup's Progress Party could achieve greater success. His ideas are very similar to Javier Milei.

What other events might have changed the history of the Nordic countries? It can be more than just changes within a democratic framework. Is there someone who can establish right-wing authoritarian rule or further socialist change in these countries?

I don't think a single loss in 1948 is even close to creating a scenario where the Social Democrats are somehow not the dominant party. The Social Democrats in the 70s and 80s were in a much worse position but still remained the dominant party even after having lost 2 elections. Something huge would need to happen. What's important to remember is that the Social Democratic party during the 1900s often basically governed even when outside government. They were very good at splitting the right and implementing their policy regardless. See Ola Ullsten as an example here. Sweden could very well end up with basically the same welfare state we got anyway, the differences between S and Folkpartiet was quite small at the time anyway so not much is needed for the Socdems to get what they want.

 

[Gugu]

I don't think a single loss in 1948 is even close to creating a scenario where the Social Democrats are somehow not the dominant party. The Social Democrats in the 70s and 80s were in a much worse position but still remained the dominant party even after having lost 2 elections. Something huge would need to happen. What's important to remember is that the Social Democratic party during the 1900s often basically governed even when outside government. They were very good at splitting the right and implementing their policy regardless. See Ola Ullsten as an example here. Sweden could very well end up with basically the same welfare state we got anyway, the differences between S and Folkpartiet was quite small at the time anyway so not much is needed for the Socdems to get what they want.

Something else to note is that the liberals and agrarians still saw themselves as fundamentally different from the outright right wing. Even when Thorbjörn Fälldin formed a government with C-FP-M they did so under the pretext of still somewhat isolating the Moderates from some parts of government. The 40s is still so early that ousting the Social Democrats by any means necessary isn't really relevant yet. The political will to create a non-labour government would have to be incredibly strong.

 

[Gugu]

In terms of notoriety, avoiding the assassination of Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme has always struck me as the most significant Scandinavian Cold War what if scenario. However, there's probably some specialist in Scandinavian history out there who could point to some seemingly small thing that would have a gargantuan butterfly effect.

So by the time Olof Palme was shot he was nearing the end of his tenure, he was considering retiring even to head the UN's refugee protection efforts. What we do know is that he'd probably want to continue into at least the 88 election and depending on how that goes maybe even the election of 91 although I don't think that's very likely. I think most likely he steps down in 89, on the 100 year anniversary of the party. Palme had this idea that elections sort of came and went in cycles between progressive elections, where voters want fresh new ideas and reform, and more conservative ones where it's more about protecting what you have, the late 60s had been progressive, late 70s and early 80s conservative and now he was convinced it was time for a progressive election. Olof Palme much preferred new ideas, he was especially eager to implement new reforms relating to the family and gender equality. He'd probably also want to reverse the cuts in the public sector once the economy allowed for it again.

What is certain is that he'd try his usual more aggressive campaigning in 88, that combined with him having been very over worked in 85 makes me think initially he'd have quite good chances. What he needs to do however first is solve the ongoing war of the roses within the party although I don't think it changes too much, the left wing rebels might get a slightly harsher deal since Palme would carry more weight as a negotiator.

What is most interesting I think is who replaces Olof after he steps down, because it's not going to be Ingvar Carlsson. He only became Prime Minister because Olof was killed and the position was almost thrust upon him. I think our prime candidate here is Anna-Greta Leijon but there's really no clear favourite here.