John Smith doesn't get his heart attack in 1994, which paved the way OTL for Tony Blair to take over Labour.
Interesting AH ideas that aren't commonly used
- Thread starter lerk
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Hong Kong is simply not in the cards. The city is totally depended on the mainland for water and power, and even at the hight of the Cultural Revolution, they didn't cut off the water and power and the Chinese Government told the Riot to stop.
Hard embargo against Singapore by Malaysia, with possible involvement of Indonesia?
I still don’t get it, the Chinese army even in the 90s was a big joke, (its defence budget was lower than taiwan’s During the third strait crisis).
If the western countries were united - unlikely of course - in their effort to keep Hong Kong, and had time to prepare, it would have been trivial to keep it, militarily speaking, wipe out the PLN and the PLA, gain complete air and sea superiority around the Guangdong region. Then you have to prevent the millions large army to enter the peninsula - at this point it’s just a matter of how far the brits want to go, several million soldiers in a narrow, built up region are no problem if you don’t care about the civilian consequences. It would just be entirely political suicide, the whole situation could have ended in only one way: the brits pushes too hard and a nuclear war starts, or they eventually leave when there is no public support for it, or international support.
But militarily, if the West is United, it’s trivial to keep HK
If the western countries were united - unlikely of course - in their effort to keep Hong Kong, and had time to prepare, it would have been trivial to keep it, militarily speaking, wipe out the PLN and the PLA, gain complete air and sea superiority around the Guangdong region. Then you have to prevent the millions large army to enter the peninsula - at this point it’s just a matter of how far the brits want to go, several million soldiers in a narrow, built up region are no problem if you don’t care about the civilian consequences. It would just be entirely political suicide, the whole situation could have ended in only one way: the brits pushes too hard and a nuclear war starts, or they eventually leave when there is no public support for it, or international support.
But militarily, if the West is United, it’s trivial to keep HK
I have a timeline where at the end of the War of 1812, the U.S. is forced to sign a treaty that allows Great Britain to occupy New Orleans perpetually.
China doesn't have to fight. As mention, China just have to cut all the water, food, and power, and then play the waiting game as the British and the US deals with a massive humanitarian crisis.
The UK won't risk nuclear war over Hong Kong, nor would the USA and the West, nor even the rest of the Commonwealth would back the UK to fight over Hong Kong.
Once the PLA marches into the city in one-two weeks, raising the five star flag over Government House, and put the Governor in front of CCTV's cameras in chains as a POW... What can the UK realistically do about it beyond protesting?
Nothing. That's want. Nothing at all. London didn't' even care about Hong Kong. OTL was the very best deal the city could have got.
Isn't the PRC a nuclear country, complete with the Chinese copy of ICBMs?
Oh I perfectly agree that realistically it would go like that, but if the U.K. magically wanted to go all in, with logistical and military support from NATO, they would wipe the floor.
Why should they care about Chinese water and electricity if they can use the logistical might of the US to feed HK?
Near ASB I know.
It be World War 3, or pointless as Hong Kong is simply too far away from any manful staging area, and they would have far less infrastructure built up in the area.
Hell, the British was the first of the West to recognized the PRC, in 1950. The US did not recognized the People's Republic till 1979.
Recognizing a new government means you accept it as the legitimate successor of the old one, which means treaties signed under the old regime carry over. Britain can't dodge their obligations by saying, “well, we didn’t sign these with any people’s republic.
Not giving up Hong Kong is possible the very worst move London could make.
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Anything involving the Byzantine Empire, the American Civil War or WW2. For some reason there's a complete dearth of alternate history works exploring these areas.
Isn't this the typical confusion of strategic capability ("Britain can simply nuke Beijing" or "PLA nukes ICBMs reach both Causeway Bay and Whitehall") for actual policy space ("why would Americans provide support?", "good luck invoking NATO art 5")?
If you think all options available within their strategic capability are actual feasible policy options, every scenario ends with the US nuclear arsenal/the 7th fleet winning, à la "How could America decimate its trade deficit? Nuke Shenzhen and Brussels."
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Kudos for the nice detour into Vienna Convention on Law of Treaties (re: successor states)!
There are some interesting points on this in Qian Qichen's autobiography - the Chinese FM who negotiated against Chris Patten on the handover. He accuses Patten of obstructing the handover with ploys and by trying to score every PR point (suggesting to offer British citizenship to Hong Kong citizens; 1994 electoral reforms universal suffrage just a few years prior to handover) against agreed Sino-British protocol. Interesting, albeit very partisan reading.
Not honouring the handover was simply never an option.
Is there a way the British could have negotiated more concessions for Hong Kong and its autonomy itself? For example, a stronger observer presence or making some good things for China that would be ongoing like favorable trade terms contingent on greater freedoms for or autonomy for HK itself?
I'm considering to develop some of the points on alternate/non-EU in the previous post into a think tank policy paper (I'm a political analyst in my day job) and I hope to solicit some help here...
Which PoD did you find most interesting/relevant? Why?
Edit: extra relevancy points if you're a European federalist who's been crying in foetal position for the last ten years.
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A modernised Qing China interacting with the world.
A Republic of China timeline.
A strong, unified Indian subcontinent in the 1500s.
England successfully conquering France in the Hundred Years’ War.
A Republic of China timeline.
A strong, unified Indian subcontinent in the 1500s.
England successfully conquering France in the Hundred Years’ War.
What HW's Presidency and 1992 campaign would have been like had Atwater not gotten a brain tumor. Would Atwater have warned HW not to break the tax pledge? Would he have told HW to talk to random people in grocery stores on the 1992 campaign trail? Would he have told HW not to let Buchanan speak at the Convention?