In Perpetuity: The War for Hong Kong
- Thread starter Star Eater
- Start date
Love it, as I was saying sending couple nuclear attack subs works wonders as an argument
By 2007 things inside HK are VERY different, China can smash UK now but it will have purge HK and it will not be pretty.
What are those attack subs going to do, sink every ship in Chinese waters? Shame this TL had such a nice plausible beganning and now deviated to ASB waters.
There's another important issue missed in all this. By the early 1980s, banks had become reluctant to finance any real estate projects - or any long term ventures - due to uncertainty of the city's legal status. The uncertainty became so toxic that at one point shops were displaying prices in US Dollars.
If the city's legal status continues to be in limbo, then its real estate market will collapse and take many British banks with them. So Thatcher simply cannot kick the can down the road another ten years for this reason alone. She *did* postpone the uncertainty, but the political games for the next ten years will make Hong Kong's stock market even more of a roller coaster than it always has been. Singapore Airlines must be making a killing on one-way tickets now.
This means that even after this mess, all the Chinese need to do is restore status quo ante bellum and keep silent about the legal status, since the city's economy will collapse in the face of uncertainty anyway.
If the city's legal status continues to be in limbo, then its real estate market will collapse and take many British banks with them. So Thatcher simply cannot kick the can down the road another ten years for this reason alone. She *did* postpone the uncertainty, but the political games for the next ten years will make Hong Kong's stock market even more of a roller coaster than it always has been. Singapore Airlines must be making a killing on one-way tickets now.
This means that even after this mess, all the Chinese need to do is restore status quo ante bellum and keep silent about the legal status, since the city's economy will collapse in the face of uncertainty anyway.
*sings Cheryl Crow's Tomorrow Never Dies*
No, seriously, i've been reading each posts with the TND soundtrack, with Backseat driver being the recent posts's theme.
What? Steve Jobs behind the attack? A heli chase on Hanoi? Or even a car chase on Hamburgian Parking lot?
This TL is good if its on ASB.
No, seriously, i've been reading each posts with the TND soundtrack, with Backseat driver being the recent posts's theme.
What? Steve Jobs behind the attack? A heli chase on Hanoi? Or even a car chase on Hamburgian Parking lot?
This TL is good if its on ASB.
Liking the story so far - well done
With the US not supporting the UK in 1984 would Britain return the favour in any subsequant Middle East Conflict ie GW1 (I suspect Britian would still step up) but their would certainly be a reluctance to get involved in any ill defined Iraq / Afgan "worr on Terra"
With the US not supporting the UK in 1984 would Britain return the favour in any subsequant Middle East Conflict ie GW1 (I suspect Britian would still step up) but their would certainly be a reluctance to get involved in any ill defined Iraq / Afgan "worr on Terra"
The Hawks in the Republican Party will see the rise of China as the next Soviet Union, and you'd imagine Bush would back Tony to the hilt about HK.
It's better to leave this for you to imagine.
Easy one
Guinaza - a surname common to a certain South American Country that is at odds with the British
Yo, you might call me names, but mistaking me for an argie is just mean
Now I feel bad
How can the UK not lose the war so badly or even prevent it to happen (negotiated status quo or lease extension):
- The US lifts the F-22 sales ban to close allies (UK, Israel, Japan, Australia, etc). The British buy a nice amount of them and base them somewhere not too far away with somehow obtained basing rights (Phillipines?)
- Hong Kong citizens really get adamant on not wanting to reunite with the PRC over the years. Proposals of full Independence as Commonwealth membership arise and are seriously considered by the UK, Canada and Australia, which begin with covert plans to enforce it (yes, involve the entire Commonwealth).
- Hong Kong implements a self-defense forcé (yea, I know, would be ASB that China allows this, but it would be huge in military terms)
- Make the PRC do something really bad in international policy. Perhaps Tiannamen x10, or a massacre in Tibet. Maybe a skirmish with Japan (in order to involve it in Hong Kong's defense later)
- Make another country a competitor for China as the 'world's workshop'. Perhaps Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Egypt, or a combination of these. This way China's importance on Western economy is reduced.
This way the Chinese may still be able to take Hong Kong, but at a massive cost, in military and economic terms.
- The US lifts the F-22 sales ban to close allies (UK, Israel, Japan, Australia, etc). The British buy a nice amount of them and base them somewhere not too far away with somehow obtained basing rights (Phillipines?)
- Hong Kong citizens really get adamant on not wanting to reunite with the PRC over the years. Proposals of full Independence as Commonwealth membership arise and are seriously considered by the UK, Canada and Australia, which begin with covert plans to enforce it (yes, involve the entire Commonwealth).
- Hong Kong implements a self-defense forcé (yea, I know, would be ASB that China allows this, but it would be huge in military terms)
- Make the PRC do something really bad in international policy. Perhaps Tiannamen x10, or a massacre in Tibet. Maybe a skirmish with Japan (in order to involve it in Hong Kong's defense later)
- Make another country a competitor for China as the 'world's workshop'. Perhaps Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Egypt, or a combination of these. This way China's importance on Western economy is reduced.
This way the Chinese may still be able to take Hong Kong, but at a massive cost, in military and economic terms.
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Deleted member 83898
I think it would be possible to achieve "Tiananmen x10" with massive unrest in China following 1984. The Party would remain in power, but would have to really crack down hard to keep itself in place.
Would it be too unreasonable for the US to intervene on the side of (or perhaps just support with things like water, food, basic supplies & necessities) the UK/Commonwealth?
By the 2000s, when the next showdown over Hong Kong comes around, the US won't need China as a bulwark against the Soviets any longer. Put that together with
1. No Iraq/Afghanistan wars
2. Fiscally healthier US
3. "Re-closure of China" following post-1984 unrest/China isolated from global economy
4. A hawkish POTUS (Bush the Younger should suffice)
5. Desire by US to stem the rising power/influence of China
And we may see a United States that is amenable towards openly supporting the British, either as a neutral power that supplies HK with food/water/necessities under the auspices of "humanitarian aid" or as a full-fledged belligerent in the conflict.
Is this a realistic estimation?
How effective would US logistical support be? How would it compare with military support? Would it be better for the US to only provide logistical aid, or would military support be better?
EDIT: Might it also be a good idea for the UK to invest in desalination facilities for Hong Kong? It might be expensive, but a UK truly devoted to retaining HK might do well to invest in such infrastructure.
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I think the Commonwealth isn't going to intervene militarily ITTL without changes to make it a military alliance which will be resisted by everybody.
Even with the Iraq war Bush HAS to stand by Blair after all that "shoulder to shoulder" stuff since 9/11. And if the U.S. makes clear they'll defend HK's right to self determination militarily, just like Taiwan, then no war.
The rise of China makes HK the perfect place for the U.S. to base a few carrier fleets and some pretty high tec spying facilities. They'd be crazy to let that all go.
I suppose no 9/11 makes it more likely that Britain is on its own, but even then not by much.
Interesting story line.
But again, HK only starts buying electricity from China after the nuclear plant in Daya Bay was built in 1994, and it accounts for 23 percent of the total consumption in HK. And its done because of environmental reaaon.
But again, HK only starts buying electricity from China after the nuclear plant in Daya Bay was built in 1994, and it accounts for 23 percent of the total consumption in HK. And its done because of environmental reaaon.
I like the twist, but not the UK's chances in the future. To a degree the Afghan/Iraq war taught us important lessons on how to fight an insurgency and how to fight as an insurgency. We picked up a lot of tips that we are going to need after the occupation of Hong Kong.
Also worth talking about is the carrier strength of the UK vs China. China to my understanding didn't have any aircraft carriers at the time of 2007. This butterfly means that they will probably be aiming to make some a lot faster. In theory they could have two rushed out, but the cost would be astronomical. Likewise the British will need to establish a larger military presence in Asia. Expanding the local garrison, the naval presence and bases in Asia. It occurs to me that securing a base in Singapor might be a worthwhile investment.
Maybe even going as far a offering funds to the Commonwealth members to help support the local defense force.
Also worth talking about is the carrier strength of the UK vs China. China to my understanding didn't have any aircraft carriers at the time of 2007. This butterfly means that they will probably be aiming to make some a lot faster. In theory they could have two rushed out, but the cost would be astronomical. Likewise the British will need to establish a larger military presence in Asia. Expanding the local garrison, the naval presence and bases in Asia. It occurs to me that securing a base in Singapor might be a worthwhile investment.
Maybe even going as far a offering funds to the Commonwealth members to help support the local defense force.
Portugal isn't forced to cede Macau,it's more like the Portuguese willingly returned the place.They've been trying to do that repeatedly long before they actually did and was rejected a number of times.Well, I don't think China is going to be able to force Portugal to cede them Macau this time