Impact of Soviet Svalbard on the Cold War Military Strategy

[General Tirpitz]

Just something I have been pondering lately. For purposes of this discussion, let's assume that Russia at some point claims the archipelago, including Bear Island, and butteflies stay at the minimum until the Cold War starts. The USSR did have an airfield on Graham Bell Island at Franz Josef Land but that was usable only during 8 winter months when the ground is frozen and solid enough. Although the airfield was occasionally used by strategic bombers, its main function seem to have been to provide a base for interceptors. Other base in the same archipelago was at Nagurskoye on Alexandra Land. This was usable year-round and provided a base for strategic bombers though my understanding is that its importance decrease after the advent of ICBMs. (I am still learning about Soviet military activities in the Arctic so any interesting sources on the topic are welcome.)

Compared to those places in Franz Josef Land, Svalbard seem to be much more optimal choice for military bases. Admitedly topographical qualities of the area might pose a challende from the perspective of base building though. Fighters based there could intercept American strategic bombers. For reference, I was playing with Google Maps and measured some approximate distances bombers would need to fly from Svalbard to their targets in North America:

Franz Josef Land-Thule Air Base: 2200km
Svalbard-Thule Air Base: 1800km

Franz Josef Land-Chigaco: 6100km
Svalbard-Chigaco: 5700km

Franz Josef Land-New York: 6100km
Svalbard-New York: 5500km

Franz Josef Land-Boston: 5900km
Svalbard-Boston: 5300km

In general, more you move towards Western US, less useful Svalbard is and at some point bases in Siberia become more useful.

In addition, bases there would give Soviets additional options when operating in Greenland Sea and Norweigian Sea and provide new locations for radar stations.

Any thoughts on this? And assuming any of this makes any sense, how would this affect the US and NATO strategy?

 

[Khanzeer]

All American bomber attacked on USSR would likely be accompanied by escort fighters so I'm not sure if soviet fighters be of much use regardless of where they are based

 

[Coiler]

Any thoughts on this? And assuming any of this makes any sense, how would this affect the US and NATO strategy?

It just shuffles around a few X's and O's on the map but doesn't really do much that's significant. It's another place to put airfields that's still pretty close to the USSR, it's not a paradigm shifter like Cuba.

 

[BlueTrousers]

It's probably not that significant for strategic bombers, for the reasons stated.

For naval purposes, though, it's potentially very significant, due to its' position off the Barents Sea. A regiment of Backfires at Longyearbyen in particular could seriously complicate the life of NATO carrier strike groups.

 

[fasquardon]

It just shuffles around a few X's and O's on the map but doesn't really do much that's significant. It's another place to put airfields that's still pretty close to the USSR, it's not a paradigm shifter like Cuba.

I'll agree that Svalbard is no Cuba, but wouldn't a Soviet Svalbard make it much harder for NATO fleets to secure the North Atlantic?

fasquardon

 

[Hvalrossen]

I'll agree that Svalbard is no Cuba, but wouldn't a Soviet Svalbard make it much harder for NATO fleets to secure the North Atlantic?

fasquardon

OTL the Soviets asked the Norwegian government in exile, for permission to liberate/safeguard Svalbard and Bear Island from German occupation, which the Norwegian government in exile declined.

If in an alternate timeline, the Soviets never ask, then they may occupy the territory before Norway can counter. This will also make it 'easier' to get away with, as the Western Allies would not want to rock the boat during the war. If the Soviet liberate Finnmark as in OTL, then they will also get more leverage. There is a real difference between taking the territories during the war, and after the war.

Soviet Svalbard would likely sour pro-Soviet sympathy in Norway, especially in Northern Norway. This would affect not only Norway's relationship with the Soviet Union, but also NATO. It would not be unlikely for Norway to be more positive to NATO forces and material being stationed in Northern Norway on a temporary and/or permanent basis.

Another possibility is that Norway accepts the Soviet proposal, that Norway cede Bear Island to the Soviet Union, while Svalbard became a shared condominium.


NATO movements in the Arctic around Svalbard could also appear more threatening than in OTL, maybe changing the strategy.