If the USSR was defeated how would the Pacific War play out?

[Captain Homicide]

A really harsh peace (a Versailles on Steroids being an example) which is unquestionably what Hitler would require from the Soviets (who he hated justthismuch less than the Jews) would likely make it impossible for the Soviets to even try to rebuild a military.

True but assuming the Soviet leadership (whether or not Stalin is killed) is able to safely escape (past the Urals for example) why would they make any type of deal with Germany?

To the Politburo what could feasibly be worth making a one sided deal when they could do their best to continue fighting behind the Urals (though there is the issue of the Luftwaffe bombing them as was planned and a potential invasion by the Japanese)?

 

[CalBear]

True but assuming the Soviet leadership (whether or not Stalin is killed) is able to safely escape (past the Urals for example) why would they make any type of deal with Germany?

To the Politburo what could feasibly be worth making a one sided deal when they could do their best to continue fighting behind the Urals (though there is the issue of the Luftwaffe bombing them as was planned and a potential invasion by the Japanese)?

The answer is in the question. What stops the Reich from simply continuing the chase, and the Japanese from taking advantage of the situation if there isn't a Peace. Given some of Hitler's public statements regarding the need to always keep up expanding and keeping up the struggle continuing to attack the enemy isn't entirely useless. Even if all the Japanese did was declare war and sink any shipping try to reach Soviet Far East ports without stepping one foot over the border Lend-Lease is done like dinner.

Without supplies from outside coming, with the Urals factories now in range. how long does it actually take before someone winds up in charge that is will to make a deal? The scenario, as laid out by you in the OP, specifies that the Reich has defeated the Soviets. Not that the Soviets are still fighting. It is a binary solution set. Still at war or Soviets are defeated and have surrendered. Zero chance that Hitler allows the USSR to continue to be a threat.

 

[M79]

A sort of Treaty of Ufa may be in order, the Urals or a point just east of them become a boundary for a German state. As part of the treaty have raw materials and foodstuffs going to Germany and Japan along with guaranteed rail/road connections between the two. Germany will also try to move into Iran, Iraq, the Levant, and perhaps India if opportunity permits, this may force redeployments to secure the Suez Canal and the Raj under the wrong circumstances. Building infrastructure in the regions will also take work and Germany may try to build rail lines and perhaps extend the Autobahn to facilitate movement of cargo. Building underground facilities in the Urals themselves or the far north of European Russia is also a possibility.

 

[M79]

The answer is in the question. What stops the Reich from simply continuing the chase, and the Japanese from taking advantage of the situation if there isn't a Peace. Given some of Hitler's public statements regarding the need to always keep up expanding and keeping up the struggle continuing to attack the enemy isn't entirely useless.

Surprisingly Hitler is on record as not being interested in land east of the Urals and only agreed to a Ob or Yinsei river border (spelling?) to get Japan into fighting the USSR - had Moscow fallen I believe they would have.

Even if all the Japanese did was declare war and sink any shipping try to reach Soviet Far East ports without stepping one foot over the border Lend-Lease is done like dinner.

If Japan has Vladivostok & Kharbarovsk and Germany controls European Russia then I think no rail line into Central Siberia exists that wouldn't go through China. Getting material to the Soviets would potentially be all but impossible.

Without supplies from outside coming, with the Urals factories now in range. how long does it actually take before someone winds up in charge that is will to make a deal? The scenario, as laid out by you in the OP, specifies that the Reich has defeated the Soviets. Not that the Soviets are still fighting. It is a binary solution set. Still at war or Soviets are defeated and have surrendered. Zero chance that Hitler allows the USSR to continue to be a threat.

This. If Stalin dies then the USSR makes a peace or suffers unusually high leadership attrition until it does.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

If Japan has Vladivostok & Kharbarovsk and Germany controls European Russia then I think no rail line into Central Siberia exists that wouldn't go through China. Getting material to the Soviets would potentially be all but impossible.

There was the idea the Soviet Army of the Caucasus would fight there & then withdraw into Persia & Iraq, supplied by the Brits/US. That was part of the reason for starting the logistics bases at Abadan & in Iraq, and upgrading the Persian & Iraqi railways.

Post war the US created War Plan Dropshot, which outlined how the US & Allies would invade the USSR from the south, building supply infrastructure from scratch across Persia.

 

[M79]

There was the idea the Soviet Army of the Caucasus would fight there & then withdraw into Persia & Iraq, supplied by the Brits/US. That was part of the reason for starting the logistics bases at Abadan & in Iraq, and upgrading the Persian & Iraqi railways.

Except what happens to the Soviet army that spends so much time among the Capitalist pigs if they decide they don't want to go home, especially if their own country disowns them in the process of making peace? Two Soviet Russian states seem like a recipe for extra trouble if they are not aligned or reunified.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Probably, much like France & Italy after their collapse. Competing political groups functioning as de facto separate nations.

In the shorter run of a year or two I'm wondering what the Allies could do with several hundred thousand Soviet soldiers and other refugees being pressured out of the Caucasus region. They'd be running out of ammunition, equipment, medical supplies, fuel, and wondering where lunch might be. They'd be heavily salted with Communist party leaders since that lot has zero desire to remain in German territory & be hanged.