If the Germans Won WW1, What Do You Think Would Happen To Russia?

[THICC Pedro III]

If the German Empire succeeded in beating the Entente, what would happen to Russia? Would the Whites win, the Reds, or would there be a new Russian Republic?

And, as a challenge, what would happen to the rest of the Entente?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

If the German Empire succeeded in beating the Entente, what would happen to Russia? Would the Whites win, the Reds, or would there be a new Russian Republic?

And, as a challenge, what would happen to the rest of the Entente?

Quesitions: WHEN do the CP beat the Entente? That is the key point, as it defines just what capacity and willingness they would have to intervene in the East.

 

[THICC Pedro III]

Quesitions: WHEN do the CP beat the Entente? That is the key point, as it defines just what capacity and willingness they would have to intervene in the East.

I'd say about 1920. That'd be realistic, right? Assuming America stays neutral

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I'd say about 1920. That'd be realistic, right? Assuming America stays neutral

The CP economy managed to chug along on total war burdans that long? Than there's no way they're intervening in the East to save the Whites. By than, their position would already be critical and the German soldiers are going to be sick of fighting and wanting to stay home to rebuild their lives. Manpower wise the Kaiserreich was already scraping for conscripts, and only got the Spring Offensive to be embraced as widely as it was because they told the men this was the push that would finally bring peace.

 

[THICC Pedro III]

The CP economy managed to chug along on total war burdans that long? Than there's no way they're intervening in the East to save the Whites. By than, their position would already be critical and the German soldiers are going to be sick of fighting and wanting to stay home to rebuild their lives. Manpower wise the Kaiserreich was already scraping for conscripts, and only got the Spring Offensive to be embraced as widely as it was because they told the men this was the push that would finally bring peace.

So the Reds win, more or less. Then what happens? I doubt the Germans would just let a VERY large Communist powerhouse sit on their borders

 

[FillyofDelphi]

So the Reds win, more or less. Then what happens? I doubt the Germans would just let a VERY large Communist powerhouse sit on their borders

I'd wager they'd adopt a policy of rapprochement with the UK and Japan to create an international policy of containment, while investing in the military capacity and stability of their newly-established Eastern European satellites to dissuade the Reds from trying to attack while shoring up the new status-quo in the Balkans so as to consolidate their sphere of influence and create a viable alliance counterweight to the sheer power of Russia, gradually implimenting the promised reforms a home to head of Socialist sentiments among the lower class population. Germany can't order the army to march in on a massive invasion right after the strain of the Great War with the intent of policing Russia: you'd have a mutiny on your hands and a Communist insurgency under their feet.

 

[Scott Washburn]

Even with Germany losing the war, they were grabbing huge chunks of land in the east. German troops were racing Ottoman troops to get to Baku on the Caspian Sea (I believe the Germans won). There might have still been a Russian Civil War, but it would have been way different.

 

[Salvador79]

I concur with @FillyofDelphi . And there's a logical Problem here. The war Economy of the CP will only last into 1920 If boosted by Ukrainian Imports. Ukrainian imports require meddling in the East, though, for which the CP have no power to spare If they want to bleed the Entente white in the West (which is the only way war lasts into 1920).

May I suggest Victory in 1918 instead? Germans capturing Hazebrouck and the coal mines of Bethune with a better Operation George, driving a wedge between British and French forces and cutting off Entente rail supply to the Front? If the Germans capitalise on their Advantages wisely, they can soon catch Amiens and/or throw the BEF back on the Channel ports. With No hope of American aid saving the day, there might be revolution in France, or Britain abandons Belgium and France in Order to hammer Out an Ok Deal for then regarding Arabia, Mesopotamia and Africa.

Not exactly super-likely either. Germany now struggles to chew what they've bitten off, but that certainly entails keeping the Ukraine outside of Moscow's spüre.

 

[Snowstalker]

Under Brest-Litovsk, Germany would have backed the creation of several buffer states. Poland, Lithuania, and the Baltic Duchy would be under a very tight leash (the latter might be part of Germany outright), while Ukraine would be a military junta with somewhat more autonomy (but still obligated to send wheat to Germany and Austria). Whether Germany and her new allies will intervene to back the Whites, and to what extent they offer support, depends on what kind of condition the country is in after the war, but a full-scale invasion is probably off the table regardless.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I concur with @FillyofDelphi . And there's a logical Problem here. The war Economy of the CP will only last into 1920 If boosted by Ukrainian Imports. Ukrainian imports require meddling in the East, though, for which the CP have no power to spare If they want to bleed the Entente white in the West (which is the only way war lasts into 1920).

May I suggest Victory in 1918 instead? Germans capturing Hazebrouck and the coal mines of Bethune with a better Operation George, driving a wedge between British and French forces and cutting off Entente rail supply to the Front? If the Germans capitalise on their Advantages wisely, they can soon catch Amiens and/or throw the BEF back on the Channel ports. With No hope of American aid saving the day, there might be revolution in France, or Britain abandons Belgium and France in Order to hammer Out an Ok Deal for then regarding Arabia, Mesopotamia and Africa.

Not exactly super-likely either. Germany now struggles to chew what they've bitten off, but that certainly entails keeping the Ukraine outside of Moscow's spüre.

Broadly agreed, though if we're talking a 1918 German break in without a longer, broader breakdown of the French civil governing structure I don't see how a revolution beyond "Vote the failure out of office" would be able to take root. France had a fairly robust and responsive political structure, and I don't think there was a broad united disagreement as the basic legitimacy of the Republican structure. While there's certainly space for radical ideas to take root, I think you'd see then by the ballot rather than the bullet.

 

[THICC Pedro III]

Under Brest-Litovsk, Germany would have backed the creation of several buffer states. Poland, Lithuania, and the Baltic Duchy would be under a very tight leash (the latter might be part of Germany outright), while Ukraine would be a military junta with somewhat more autonomy (but still obligated to send wheat to Germany and Austria). Whether Germany and her new allies will intervene to back the Whites, and to what extent they offer support, depends on what kind of condition the country is in after the war, but a full-scale invasion is probably off the table regardless.

B

Broadly agreed, though if we're talking a 1918 German break in without a longer, broader breakdown of the French civil governing structure I don't see how a revolution beyond "Vote the failure out of office" would be able to take root. France had a fairly robust and responsive political structure, and I don't think there was a broad united disagreement as the basic legitimacy of the Republican structure. While there's certainly space for radical ideas to take root, I think you'd see then by the ballot rather than the bullet.

I could definitely see a French Socialist Republic coming up, or maybe even a fascist France?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I could definitely see a French Socialist Republic coming up, or maybe even a fascist France?

Fascist and Socialist parties getting elected, sure. But gaining a dictatorial monopoly on power? That's a mite harder.

 

[Catspoke]

Late German Victory:

Scenario:
a) We could just assume the Germans don't do unrestricted submarine warfare and no Zimmerman telegram.
b) USA remains neutral, Russia collapses into red revolution just the same.
c) Germany achieves some sort of peace with the western allies in 1918 leaving a free hand in the east.

Results:
a) No reason why Reds don't stay in power unless they antagonize the Germans. If they do antagonize the Germans, the Germans will overthrow the reds and replace with whatever relative of the Russian royal family the can scrape up to install a puppet government.
b) Germany has to keep a large army mobilized to maintain order in the east.
c) Almost better for the Germans if they lost their colonies and have naval restrictions in their peace with the Allies to be able to afford their empire in the east.
d) The Germans need to do Roman style "divide and conquer", propping up segments of the population against the other.

I don't see why the Germans can't do empire indefinitely.


Early German victory:
This involves some compromise peace with the Russian monarchy, Russians lose Poland and maybe Courland, but things pretty much remain as they are. There may be a Russian revolution but it won't be OTL communists.

 

[Salvador79]

@FillyofDelphi
While I would agree that the French political system was responsive overall, a change like the one likely demanded by pro-peace groups (mutinying soldiers, striking workers etc.) in 1918 might be too far off for the parliamentary parties to accomodate. The SFIO might become its mouthpiece, but that's not getting the protesters anywhere. Clemenceau is already from a centre-left party, I doubt his "Radical Socialists" are going to betray him? Without them changing sides, though, I don't see how either the formation of a pro-peace government or re-elections come about. Protesters aren't going to wait for the next regulary elections...

 

[Lalli]

I'd say about 1920. That'd be realistic, right? Assuming America stays neutral

There is not realistic way how war is going six years. By end of 1918 both sides were very exhausted and even without American intervention it couldn't last many months longer. I would suggest for example succesful Spring Offensive if you want late victory.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

@FillyofDelphi
While I would agree that the French political system was responsive overall, a change like the one likely demanded by pro-peace groups (mutinying soldiers, striking workers etc.) in 1918 might be too far off for the parliamentary parties to accomodate. The SFIO might become its mouthpiece, but that's not getting the protesters anywhere. Clemenceau is already from a centre-left party, I doubt his "Radical Socialists" are going to betray him? Without them changing sides, though, I don't see how either the formation of a pro-peace government or re-elections come about. Protesters aren't going to wait for the next regulary elections...

A great deal depends on the timing. It should be remembered Clemenceau was hardly a popular figure in political circles prior to his assecention to the Ministership and had previously held fairly critical stances towards the military and prior policies of persecuiting the war. If it's a definiative point that the Yanks are not, in fact coming Over There and the demands of the 1917 Mutinies are taken to heart, I argue that his administration wouldn't have adopted otl policy of war to the finish, especially if a broad expansion of pro-peace demands make it clear there isn't the support of the people for that policy. In that case, I'd be inclined to argue Clemenceau would be compelled by a revolt from beneath to reshuffle the administration to negotiate an Armastice, particularly if he's compelled to take the controversial action of calling for a government evacuation from Paris. Given extraordinary circumstances I don't see why an emergency government wouldn't be pulled together without an election (out of a broad collection of the parties) if it appears the unpalitable socialists are gaining control of the mob

 

[Riain]

For starters there would be no 'war of pygmies' in the east like otl, Germany would have 25 divisions in the occupied territories to extract the reparations of Brest Litovsk. That means not Soviet-Polish war for example. If there is a civil war in Russia the Germans will support with arms transfer the side they think they can best control and best extract reparations, and given the communists had already begun to make payments it might well be them. However I doubt that the Germans will send troops beyond their occupation areas, its one thing to hold occupied territory but another to wade deep into Russia to fight their civil war.

In the longer term I think Russian growth as an industrial power is virtually inevitable whoever is in power and some 15 years after the war Russia would be a great power and looming superpower again.

 

[Snowstalker]

In the longer term I think Russian growth as an industrial power is virtually inevitable whoever is in power and some 15 years after the war Russia would be a great power and looming superpower again.

How much harder will industrialization be without Ukraine and Belarus?

 

[Riain]

How much harder will industrialization be without Ukraine and Belarus?

Why wouldn't they have the Ukraine and Belarus? Iotl Ukrainian independence was very short lived .

 

[SlideAway]

Why assume the Germans wouldn't have left the Bolsheviks in power? Even OTL, post-Brest Litovsk, they were basically in alliance, as any White faction would reject Brest-Litovsk. And of course OTL the Weimar Republic maintained close relations - and secret military ties - with the Soviet Union.