If the First World Wars schlieffen plan succeeded

[Jasmine23]

I know that this question has been asked to death here. But the ones I read though ignores one important detail. There is no way it couild have succeeded with the way World War One went. It was an old outdated war plan from the previous century. For it to have a chance to work, Great Britain had to stay out of the war. Or at least be on the German side if war broke out. that was a reasonable assumption for when the plan was designed. For most of the past century, great Britain eye was focused on France as the enemy. GB fought for the french over and over. The first French empire, the Second and Third, how many empires does one country need.

And, when fighting those empires, who was great Britain ally. Even in the American Revolution, Germany supplied GB with 30000 troops. So it was reasonable to assume GB would stay out of the war, or be on their side, to a point.

So we need a POD that makes GB not inter the war. If they kept their eye on France as a potential enemy. Not the Germans. How could that had happened
First thing that broke the German Britain alliance was Germans continued antagonism. Their fleet which they dumped massive money and resources to try to compete with GB and they couldn't understand why GB saw that as a serious potential threat. So, in this time, no Bismark, no fleet building. They spend their resources on their army for a potential war with France. That may still upset the Britain's but not as much.

So now we need an event that keeps the Britain's eye on France. What if the Flashoda incident resulted in a war

and the krugar telegram never was released.

We still need GB to be very stupid to stay out of the war. Some political events that make GB very isolationist. Maybe after being in so many wars they dont want another. And some of the firebrand radicals that pushed GB to arm for a war with germany never get power and they are never listened to. With Germany not building a fleet, Fisher wont be listened to now. I now a personality like his will demand attention and find a way to get it, but hes ignored here. Instead of him ascending to the first sea lord, Beresford rises in his place. Fisher remains in the backwater of history. He is seen to be trying to change things that do not need to be changed. In our time, Fisher rises and changes the entire navy, starts the battleship race with his dreadnaught, scraps old ships and brings in the Turbine Engine to power them. None of that happens here.

Now, is it reasonable to assume the British will stay out of the war and the Schlieffen Plan will succeed?

Now, once Paris is taken, what will likely happen? It wont knock France out of the war, there is a lot more of France to deal with. With a German victory in World War one, what is likely to be Europe's future

I see one of two. In our Time, Germany lost, and the treatment of the victors was so harsh and so cruel, millions of Germans died of starvation, the demands of the victors destroyed the German economy. That Guaranteed a dangerous demagogue would rise to power for a much needed revenge (their point of view, not mine.)

I can see the same thing happening another way. France is humiliated and crushed by the Germans. The Demands on the victors result in the same thing. Maybe another napoleon or something in the 1940s. They had 3 allready.

Are my assumptions and situations right here, or does it all seem silly.

 

[jahenders]

Several things:
1) First, I think the Schleiffen Plan COULD have worked. It was a close-run thing IOTL and might have worked without Germany sending divisions East, closer adherance to the planned route of march, and stronger German leadership.

2) That being said, of course the plan is much more likely to succeed if you keep the British out. However, even if they're more focused on France as an opponent than Germany, you'd still have to break the UK relationship with Belgium. It was that violation, after all, that promptly brought them into the war. So, hard to do if you're still going with the Schlieffen Plan.

3) If the UK stays out, there's a strong probability of the plan succeeding and Paris being taken. That might not necessarily mean the surrender of France, but they'll be willing to negotiate.
3a) If the German terms are NOT harsh, the French may agree and the whole thing's over.
3B) If the German terms are harsh, the French will try to fight on to salvage something better or in hopes of some success elsewhere (i.e. the Russians).

4) For what it's worth, most estimates put the German starvation figures at between 400-800K; not millions

5) If France suffers (another) humiliating defeat, they'll thirst for revenge, but their actions will depend on how the rest of Europe lines up. If Germany is strong on their border and UK is neutral of German-friendly, there's not much they can do. They might conceivably form a fascist government and consider war, but that'll only work if Germany doesn't have some kind of aggressive government in the 30s/40s AND if the French can keep the Russians at odds with Germany.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Assuming the German corps aren't sent East until the situation in France was resolved...I'd say the best POD to get it to work is have the 1st army come allowed to separate from the 2nd and thus hit the BEF in the flank at Mons and cut off their retreat, which would destroy them and ensure no more British forces are sent to the continent in 1914 due to the political fallout. That means the Belgians aren't able to escape from Antwerp due to no British help. After the defeat at Mons the German 1st army then hits the French 5th army in the flank as it tries to retreat and damages it worse than IOTL and a chase ensues to have the German right wing run down the French 5th army. In the end at the Marne the French 6th army is able to be met by the entire German 1st, which would pretty much destroy it and chase its remnants back into the Paris fortress system and besiege it. The rest of the German army then closes in on the French armies and cuts off Verdun, trapping part of the French 3rd there and beats off any French counter offensives. In the end the French capital and Verdun are besieged, Antwerp is cut off and taken along with the Belgians, the German siege train then turns on Paris and by the Winter the French capital has fallen.

Effectively the French are knocked out of the war and large German reserves can be sent East starting in October or so, which would include the 6 newly formed reserve corps. Russia gets it worse during Autumn/Winter campaigns and Przemysl is rescued. Russia then has to decide if it wants to stick out the war, which if Paris has fallen, then I think it wouldn't. Likely it gives up Lithuania and Poland and has the pre-war border with A-H, while Serbia is a Habsburg puppet. France is sat on hard with a large indemnity, loss of territory, and military restrictions. Britain loses nothing, but has to deal with Belgium getting puppetized by the Germans, plus perhaps colonial reshuffling. I'd say the war is officially over by Spring 1915.

 

[Jasmine23]

Oh I didnt think about that

Several things:
1) First, I think the Schleiffen Plan COULD have worked. It was a close-run thing IOTL and might have worked without Germany sending divisions East, closer adherance to the planned route of march, and stronger German leadership.

2) That being said, of course the plan is much more likely to succeed if you keep the British out. However, even if they're more focused on France as an opponent than Germany, you'd still have to break the UK relationship with Belgium. It was that violation, after all, that promptly brought them into the war. So, hard to do if you're still going with the Schlieffen Plan.

3) If the UK stays out, there's a strong probability of the plan succeeding and Paris being taken. That might not necessarily mean the surrender of France, but they'll be willing to negotiate.
3a) If the German terms are NOT harsh, the French may agree and the whole thing's over.
3B) If the German terms are harsh, the French will try to fight on to salvage something better or in hopes of some success elsewhere (i.e. the Russians).

4) For what it's worth, most estimates put the German starvation figures at between 400-800K; not millions

5) If France suffers (another) humiliating defeat, they'll thirst for revenge, but their actions will depend on how the rest of Europe lines up. If Germany is strong on their border and UK is neutral of German-friendly, there's not much they can do. They might conceivably form a fascist government and consider war, but that'll only work if Germany doesn't have some kind of aggressive government in the 30s/40s AND if the French can keep the Russians at odds with Germany.

I didnt think about Belgem at all. Yes that was the spark for GB to enter the war

Okay, 400000 to 800000. Not millions, thanks. I thought it was millions