Ok, POD of 1917, Germany does NOT decide to continue unrestricted submarine warfare. This leads to the US getting nowhere near as outraged to Germany as well as no Zimmerman telegram, etc. US does not enter the First World War. This means that Germany has no need to rush the final spring offensive, and spends much more time planning out the offensive to make it as foolproof as possible. In the meantime, soon after Russia's surrender, German forces help AH push even further into Italy, reaching the Po River. At this point, Italy surrenders. With 2 allies gone for the Allied Powers and no US entry, allied morale is very low. Germany plans the offensive to perfection as well as utilizing the land they received from Russia in Brest-Litovsk treaty. Germany manages to push through in the West enough for France to surrender. This leads to Britain's surrender due to war weariness. WWI ends with CP victory, France gives virtually every colony over to Germany, AH gets a Serbian puppet state. World is changed forever, WWII likely doesn't occur. However, one aspect which is absolutely crucial to world affairs in this world is the question of whether or not the outcome of Russia's Civil War is changed. Does the presence of Germany in East Europe as well as the large support of the Whites by Germany lead to a victory for the Whites and the establishment of a pro-German Russia? Or do the reds still take the victory?
If the Central Powers win WWI, does the Soviet Union still exist?
- Thread starter victhemag
- Start date
Why would France concede any of her colonies to the Germans? There might see a restoration of occupied German colonies to German colonial control but that's all I see happening.
In regards to Russia after the CP wins, you might see the Germans supporting both sides to make sure that a unified Russia doesn't emerge from the ongoing RCW but it seems more likely that the Germans would support the Whites when we consider how horrified the Prussian nobility would be towards a Soviet Russia whose goals are to export the world revolution. Then again, a White Russia would be focused on reclaiming the parts of her Empire which have declared independence and are now de-facto protectorates of the CP that also function as buffer states against potential Russian rearmament and expansionism. However, it seems more likely that the CP would back the White Russian forces.
Although, it would be interesting to see the CP supporting the Bolsheviks over the Whites.
In regards to Russia after the CP wins, you might see the Germans supporting both sides to make sure that a unified Russia doesn't emerge from the ongoing RCW but it seems more likely that the Germans would support the Whites when we consider how horrified the Prussian nobility would be towards a Soviet Russia whose goals are to export the world revolution. Then again, a White Russia would be focused on reclaiming the parts of her Empire which have declared independence and are now de-facto protectorates of the CP that also function as buffer states against potential Russian rearmament and expansionism. However, it seems more likely that the CP would back the White Russian forces.
Although, it would be interesting to see the CP supporting the Bolsheviks over the Whites.
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FillyofDelphi
Banned
It depends on just how cohesive the Whites manage to get. Germany has ALOT of military surplus to sell off and needs a vent for their overproduction if they want to wind down war industry in a manner that isen't going to crash the economy. Russia is the perfect answer for this, and I could see the Whites ITTL (or at least a number of them) shifting their policies and stances to align with Berlin's interest for access to that arsenal and support from volunteers. Would it be enough to win? Maybe: it certainly improves the odds especially if the Entente still gets involved with a motive to engage longer in order to keep maximum influence in the region so Russia can be kept from becoming a German client and debt slave
Remember that the Civil War was between two relatively poorly armed and organised sides and the old Imperial Russian Army had collapsed. There was a German general occupying the Baltic at the time who was advising the High Command that, if he had six Divisions at his disposal, he could take everything between there and Moscow. He was probably a tad optimistic but there was a huge qualitative difference between the Germans and the pre 1917 Army that would be even greater when the Civil War broke out. With the Germans favouring some flavour of White and providing training and some military aid, no question about it.
Perhaps this sees the rise of an alt-Cold War in Eastern Europe? Maybe even the Entente backing the Bolsheviks against the German-backed Whites?
it would be so twisted to see the Allies backing the Bolsheviks, while also going through a Red Scare of sorts. But stranger things have happened.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
It's unlikely you get the same blocs as OTL. I think it's more likely the Entente focuses in backing moderate SRs, intervenes in the Far East, and backs separatists in Centeral Asia than touch the Bolsheviks with a ten foot pole
BlondieBC
Banned
@victhemag
Extremely unlikely that we have anything recognizable as OTL Soviet Union.
Now to your scenario, no USW. Your ATL is not realistics. It looks more like.
Russia will not be pro-anyone. It will be a large, wounded bear holding a grudge. Likely it will still rapidly industrialize. Russia will be looking for offsetting gains to make up for it lost lands in Poland, Finland, and the Baltics.
Extremely unlikely that we have anything recognizable as OTL Soviet Union.
Now to your scenario, no USW. Your ATL is not realistics. It looks more like.
- Germany had roughly a cease fire in place offer as new borders to Russians. i.e. Lose Poland, Lithuania, maybe bit more of Baltics. Maybe favorable border adjustment for A-H. Low to no reparations. Germany wants Russia out of the war, so it made a really, good offer. Russia did not take IOTL due to hope of USA entering war. Russia will leave in 1917, probably too late to save the Tsar but it will save the provisional government.
- You have way too many surrenders, way too fast.
- A-H has issues with offensive operations without German help. Probably takes more of Po Valley, but this does not knock Italy out of war. With food issues and lower equipment standard of A-H units, we probably see a few armies go back into reserve status with some of the heavy equipment transferred to better armies. Also, more reliable armies as in more German, less Italian/Slavic.
- Germany will prepare for Grand Offensive versus France. Probably 1-2 Austrian armies join to hold quite places in the line.
- France probably makes peace here, if not, Germany will knock out France in 1917 or 1918. Depends on timing, since may well be full campaign season to take enough land to force France out.
- Germany will not beat/invade UK. It is a negotiated peace. I like wanking the German Navy more than anyone else on this board, but there is no way to invade the UK without building a bigger navy than the UK. And that would take most of a decade after the win.
Russia will not be pro-anyone. It will be a large, wounded bear holding a grudge. Likely it will still rapidly industrialize. Russia will be looking for offsetting gains to make up for it lost lands in Poland, Finland, and the Baltics.
BlondieBC
Banned
It is possible in a negotiate peace. More really of a call in London than Paris. If each side forces only what it can and will not trade concessions, then Germany will have no colonies, Germany will hold Calais, Antwerp will be a large German naval base and France does not get her industrial area back. To each of these parties, a German colonial empire in exchange for concessions such as a demilitarized and neutral Belgium may look very good. Or not, negotiations take odd turns.
Since Japan will not give back what it took and South Africa does not want to give back Southwest Africa, the compensation in terms of Belgium and French colonies make an ego satisfying but not super valueable colonial area. Add the Congo plus French Equatorial Africa to Cameroon and German East Africa, one can get an huge area that both the Germans can brag about and the UK can live with. Add enough slices of a few other French things such as chunks of the Sahara or the Niger river valley, and Germany could brag about 'The world second largest colonial empire'.
BlondieBC
Banned
Power differential is too Great. The combined German, A-H, Ottoman, Polish alliance actually has more population than Rump Russia if memory serves me right. And vastly larger military forces. Only governments acceptable to this group will be allowed to come to power, and this government will not be Red.
When I was referring to an alt-Cold War in EE, I meant between the Entente and Central Powers.
BlondieBC
Banned
Don't see it. OTL issue was France had a smaller population than Germany. Here, Germany alone is bigger than France by a good margin. Then we add in A-H. And Germany has a need for a large army since Russia non-hostility can't be assumed. If Germany was ok with ToV, France really did not need much of an army. The German economy is in much better shape than OTL France. The inability to import has saved German finances.
So I conclude that Germany would have the ability to and the will to keep France down in most ATL's.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Exactly the case for why an extended Cold War is unlikely, BC. Even assuming Britain (and maybe the US, but I see little reason why they'd get involved as unless this spills over into influence mongering in China the rivalry would be in areas not of their concern) tried to undermine Germany's sphere, realistically they won't be able to let off and hold more than one of the two potentially pliable powers; and as long as Germany has a Finlandized France or allied Russia their continental hegemony is unchallangable in routine comditions. Like the Axis IOTL, rivals of the Pac Germanica would need to move quickly to exploit a decisive oppritunity to try to knock down the international structure while Berlin is less willing or able to focus outwardly (Should AH start violently breaking down hypothetically, or internal political events lead to the military elite being discredited and a liberal, domestic focused Reichstag gains ascendancy), which is far more likely to produce a tense and fast build up to a "Hot War"
Riain
Banned
Because......
Winners are grinners, the Germans will extract a hefty price from the losers and the loser will pay it to avoid a German occupation of their homelands (France and Belgium) or vital national interests (Britain re the Channel coast).
I was referring to the post that mentioned that France concedes all of her colonies.
True that Germans helped Lenin go to Russia but it doesn't mean that Germans would help Bolsheviks keeping power. They know that such radical government will be threat so there will be backstabbing.
Or Germany sells some of their surplus to the Reds while Austria-Hungary sells quite a bit more of their's to the Whites to let them win on the condition that they accept that Archduke Wilhelm Franz of Austria becomes King Basil of the Ukraine.
Archduke Wilhelm Franz of Austria, in the Ukraine known as Basil the Embroidered
Archduke Wilhelm Franz of Austria, in the Ukraine known as Basil the Embroidered