If Japan destroys the US carriers at Pearl Harbor and Germany beats the soviets in early/mid 1942, how is this going to affect the pacific war?
- Thread starter Fors
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IMO, this may lead to Japan gaining a fair advantage over the US in the Pacific.
Deleted member 2186
Wich carriers are sunk at PH, knowing that we can figure out what happens next.
SysyphusOfEphyra
Banned
The destruction of the carriers at PH would give Japan some breathing room to last a while more, but not much. The USSR part is the one that could change things more here but we need more specifics there.
But the USA just has too much industrial capacity. They can still win in time.
But the USA just has too much industrial capacity. They can still win in time.
Well, since there would, at max, only be two decks there, a lot less than folks tend to imagine. Saratoga was still on the West Coast after here overhaul and Ranger, Yorktown, Wasp and Hornet (she was still working up) were all in the Atlantic.
The biggest impact, oddly enough, would be in the Med given the almost certain movement of the Wasp to the PTO. That mean that Operations Calendar and Bowery might not happen, at least at the same scale as IOTL, with potentially disastrous consequences for Malta. The U.S. could substitute Ranger, but her hanger is about 15% smaller than Wasp's.
The biggest impact, oddly enough, would be in the Med given the almost certain movement of the Wasp to the PTO. That mean that Operations Calendar and Bowery might not happen, at least at the same scale as IOTL, with potentially disastrous consequences for Malta. The U.S. could substitute Ranger, but her hanger is about 15% smaller than Wasp's.
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Actually the Wasp was very suited for the PTO, 30 knots, 12,000 range at cruise, large magazines (including a full sized Honest-to-God torpedo magazine, something that Ranger completely lacked) HUGE airwing. She was, however, very poorly suited for being torpedoed, A trait she shared with her more robust siblings Yorktown and Hornet.
kham_coc
Banned
I dont think the Pacific will change that much.
The fundamentals are still way against Japan.
Germany isn't in a position to do anything to help, nor do I really think they would care.
They will be busy mopping up and ovetextending. Likely the next goal is the ME.
Given how taped for manpower they would be, it would have to be a diplomatic offensive, spain, turkey, Arabs. I can't see how the me isn't an axis lake by 44-45. But even then and so, Japan is down if not out.
The fundamentals are still way against Japan.
Germany isn't in a position to do anything to help, nor do I really think they would care.
They will be busy mopping up and ovetextending. Likely the next goal is the ME.
Given how taped for manpower they would be, it would have to be a diplomatic offensive, spain, turkey, Arabs. I can't see how the me isn't an axis lake by 44-45. But even then and so, Japan is down if not out.
Deleted member 2186
Seems you just torpedoed my assumption about the Wasp not being suited for operations in the PTO.
At least 1 carrier would be destroyed here, the Enterprise, with the Lexington and Saratoga being away from Pearl harbor at the time. Sure, that a crushing blow for only a few Japanese dead or captured, but it's at least manageable.
The biggest effect though could be that American naval commanders are a lot more cautious about the carriers though, and that could do something in the long run. Not sure how significant it would be though since that didn't happen iotl.
The biggest effect though could be that American naval commanders are a lot more cautious about the carriers though, and that could do something in the long run. Not sure how significant it would be though since that didn't happen iotl.
Axis Lake?
I would have to disagree. The Med will become a major theater, possibly even moreso than IOTL. at least in the short term. The WAllies, especially the British will put major forces into Iran to prevent it being overun once the Reich solidified its hold on the Soviets (something that is likely to be noticeably helped by fleeing Red Army formations escaping the tender mercies of the Gestapo and SS) and take whatever steps are needed to defend the rest of the Middle East, with Torch continuing, maybe even moved forward a month or so.
As for the rest of what happens in Europe, well, there are a few fairly popular T/L here that discuss it in some detail.
The Pacific will be interesting seeing as how most of the British and Commonwealth's manpower, and a significant fraction of it naval forces are sort of out of a job. While much of the RN's tonnage is not really well suited for the Pacific (no A/C makes the ship's livability rather grim in much of the SoPac, and range becomes an issue in the Central/North Pacific, the ships are definitely capable, well crewed and well led. Aircraft for the carriers are going to require some serious retooling (the Stringbag is facing a very different math problem against the Kido Butai).
“the USSR is defeated” never really clarifies what that means, practically. Germany was never going to drive the USSR to the AA line militarily, much less the Urals, and the Soviet leadership had a ruthlessly firm grasp on political power and civil society. A political solution with Nazi Germany is impossible and Western aid from 1943 onward allows the USSR to feed, clothe, and arm itself even with much of its Western territory occupied.
Let’s say Nazi Germany occupies Moscow and Leningrad in 1941, and retains both despite heavy casualties. Stalin leaves for Kuibyshev with the rest of the Soviet government. The Red Army doesn’t spend Winter 41-42 beating its head against the Germans and hangs around licking its wounds instead. In Summer 1942 the Germans attack towards the Caucuses. Soviet resistance picks up owing to LL, factories beyond the Urals coming online, and an overall less damaging winter campaign.
Even without a Stalingrad-scale disaster, the German drive eventually stalls under its own weight and its overextended frontline forces a withdrawal from the Caucuses. Come 1943 the USSR is alive, overburdened with material from its factories and LL, and ready to start retaking territory from a now exhausted Wehrmacht, as it did IOTL. It might be a slower and harder fight, but by 1944 substantial territory will have been liberated and the Ostheer bled to death.
The Soviet leadership was never going to throw in the towel, and there was no alternative source of power within the USSR to compel them to do so. Nazi Germany didn’t have the military means to seize all its objectives or compel the USSR to surrender either.
Let’s say Nazi Germany occupies Moscow and Leningrad in 1941, and retains both despite heavy casualties. Stalin leaves for Kuibyshev with the rest of the Soviet government. The Red Army doesn’t spend Winter 41-42 beating its head against the Germans and hangs around licking its wounds instead. In Summer 1942 the Germans attack towards the Caucuses. Soviet resistance picks up owing to LL, factories beyond the Urals coming online, and an overall less damaging winter campaign.
Even without a Stalingrad-scale disaster, the German drive eventually stalls under its own weight and its overextended frontline forces a withdrawal from the Caucuses. Come 1943 the USSR is alive, overburdened with material from its factories and LL, and ready to start retaking territory from a now exhausted Wehrmacht, as it did IOTL. It might be a slower and harder fight, but by 1944 substantial territory will have been liberated and the Ostheer bled to death.
The Soviet leadership was never going to throw in the towel, and there was no alternative source of power within the USSR to compel them to do so. Nazi Germany didn’t have the military means to seize all its objectives or compel the USSR to surrender either.
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Here is a link to a 9 page thread with a similar premise.
Japan most likely wouldn’t surrender in this scenario after atomic bombs are dropped. IOTL Japan surrendered after the nearly simultaneous atomic bombings and the Soviet declaration of war and even then it was close.
With the USSR far too concerned about its own survival and rebuilding whatever is left of their territory (behind the Urals or the A-A line) there likely wouldn’t be significant Soviet aid in the Allied effort to defeat Japan.
If the WAllies decide to fight on against a far more powerful Nazi Germany (which isn’t as certain as some like to believe) they likely would resort to bombing and blockading Japan in 1945 in order to conserve manpower and resources for the war in Europe. Millions of Japanese civilians would die along with millions of people still under Japanese occupation before Japan surrenders in 1946/47.
Japan most likely wouldn’t surrender in this scenario after atomic bombs are dropped. IOTL Japan surrendered after the nearly simultaneous atomic bombings and the Soviet declaration of war and even then it was close.
With the USSR far too concerned about its own survival and rebuilding whatever is left of their territory (behind the Urals or the A-A line) there likely wouldn’t be significant Soviet aid in the Allied effort to defeat Japan.
If the WAllies decide to fight on against a far more powerful Nazi Germany (which isn’t as certain as some like to believe) they likely would resort to bombing and blockading Japan in 1945 in order to conserve manpower and resources for the war in Europe. Millions of Japanese civilians would die along with millions of people still under Japanese occupation before Japan surrenders in 1946/47.
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kham_coc
Banned
Maybe maybe not - But either way, It isn't going to meaningfully let Germany aid Japan.
We have obviously not been given a PoD, But OTL the Soviet state was under pressure to say the least, and if we stick to small things, If there is no successful counteroffensive, leningrad falls, Moscow falls in 42, They might still be in a position to continue sure - But they don't know that.
And at some point the Non russians won't want to step into that crucible.
What happens if the Central asians see the complete shambles, and then the fall of moscow, and they declare independence?
Remember Germany don't need to be in a position to continue massive offensives in 1944, if there are no large Red army formations left in 1943.
It's going to slow the Pacific war down by a year or so, but eventually someone on the Axis side is going to get a case of extreme sunburn.
Even if Enterprise and the Lexington sisters were caught in harbor, it is likely they will be no more irretrievably sunk than the majority of the battleships. They will rise, be renovated in drydock because they're already there for a while so why not, and fight once more once that's done.
In the meanwhile as those repairs and upgrades are underway, Yorktown is in the Atlantic, as are Ranger, Wasp, and the escort carrier Long Island, and the Hornet is just finished building and preparing for her shakedown cruise, which now likely also becomes her maiden deployment as the CNO stamps orders transferring at least two of the big carriers back into the Pacific.
That said, it is highly unlikely more than two of the three carriers stationed in the Pacific IOTL are at anchor in Hawai'i at once.
It does not hand Japan the war, and it likely does not buy them more than another twelve months, during which time some projects cancelled IOTL, such as the Sea Ranger, may be brought to fruition to help handle the temporary shortage of flight decks.
In the meanwhile as those repairs and upgrades are underway, Yorktown is in the Atlantic, as are Ranger, Wasp, and the escort carrier Long Island, and the Hornet is just finished building and preparing for her shakedown cruise, which now likely also becomes her maiden deployment as the CNO stamps orders transferring at least two of the big carriers back into the Pacific.
That said, it is highly unlikely more than two of the three carriers stationed in the Pacific IOTL are at anchor in Hawai'i at once.
It does not hand Japan the war, and it likely does not buy them more than another twelve months, during which time some projects cancelled IOTL, such as the Sea Ranger, may be brought to fruition to help handle the temporary shortage of flight decks.
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Basils
Banned
Wasn’t Ranger also much slower? It’s top speed wasn’t as fast as the other carriers? I think in an actual battle there it had to dodge bombers and torpedoes, it’s fare worse than other carriers. It was a good escort and auxiliary carrier but it would be like taking a foot solider and making him a knight.
thaddeus
Donor
if the Soviets are defeated (insert definition here) by mid-1942, can we assume Japan has joined in the war against them? under this scenario the Nazi regime might not be so quick to declare war on the US if Japan has not declared war on the USSR, or agreed to do so?
if their strange alliance was on the same page, the KM could have submarine operations in the Indian Ocean earlier than historical?
if their strange alliance was on the same page, the KM could have submarine operations in the Indian Ocean earlier than historical?
The U.S. can replace sunken carriers and ships, the more if they were sunk in a shallow place like Pearl Harbor. Japan on the other hand spent too much resources just to conduct a surprise attack. Japan would not able to replace lost material.
The war ends in 1946-1947.
The war ends in 1946-1947.