If Empire of Japan never went declared war on WAllies, can they hold China?

[mlp]

With the POD in 1931, if the Empire of Japan focused all their military and diplomatic efforts to capturing and administering as much Chinese territory as possible, instead of going after Southeast Asia and the Pacific as per OTL, can they both topple the KMT government and effectively govern the entirety of China for the long-term (~20 years)?
-- I know that the invasion to SEA and WPacific ultimately occurred because China became a stalemate and resources were running out, what I'm arguing is that the Japanese prepare beforehand to make sure such an invasion does not become necessary.

 

[Mech]

They didn't even have the manpower to take China, let alone hold it.

 

[Kirook]

With the POD in 1931, if the Empire of Japan focused all their military and diplomatic efforts to capturing and administering as much Chinese territory as possible, instead of going after Southeast Asia and the Pacific as per OTL, can they both topple the KMT government and effectively govern the entirety of China for the long-term (~20 years)?
-- I know that the invasion to SEA and WPacific ultimately occurred because China became a stalemate and resources were running out, what I'm arguing is that the Japanese prepare beforehand to make sure such an invasion does not become necessary.

China is a huge region with a massive population, and the US probably would still place the oil embargo on Japan. And their war machine wouldn't be able to sustain itself for nearly as long without the rubber, oil, etc. from their Pacific conquests. Also, I don't know what kind of aid Japan got from its Axis partners, but it would probably get less or even none if it refused to attack their enemies in Southeast Asia, India, and the Pacific.

 

[eltf177]

Kirook states the problem quite well. Japan will get bogged down in China, even with more troops available. And unless the US doesn't place an embargo Japan will run out of resources before too long. Even without an embargo Japan can't pay for the oil and steel needed for such a huge project, not to mention international outrage...

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Japan was dependent on credit from the US and London banks. The China 'Incident' was not yet a paying proposition. At some point they have to make the expanded empire pay, see their loans to costly to sustain. That might occur as early as 1942, but probably before 1946.

 

[lionhead]

They could topple the KMT government, but they can't "hold" China.

 

[Admiral Beez]

With the POD in 1931, if the Empire of Japan focused all their military and diplomatic efforts to capturing and administering as much Chinese territory as possible, instead of going after Southeast Asia and the Pacific as per OTL, can they both topple the KMT government and effectively govern the entirety of China for the long-term (~20 years)?
-- I know that the invasion to SEA and WPacific ultimately occurred because China became a stalemate and resources were running out, what I'm arguing is that the Japanese prepare beforehand to make sure such an invasion does not become necessary.

If Japan stocks to its 1931 borders it may be sustainable, expansion beyond this is less so

 

[Carismastic]

With the POD in 1931, if the Empire of Japan focused all their military and diplomatic efforts to capturing and administering as much Chinese territory as possible, instead of going after Southeast Asia and the Pacific as per OTL, can they both topple the KMT government and effectively govern the entirety of China for the long-term (~20 years)?
-- I know that the invasion to SEA and WPacific ultimately occurred because China became a stalemate and resources were running out, what I'm arguing is that the Japanese prepare beforehand to make sure such an invasion does not become necessary.

The problem though, is that the Japanese will have to deal with the Chinese Communists. If the KMT government falls, then it's likely that the CCP would see a surge in recruitment as they would be seen as the only organized resistance left to still fight for a free China.

It's highly likely that this becomes a Vietnam like situation for Japan, since the populace wouldn't accept Japanese rule, and the Japanese would have to fight an indefinite communist insurgency that won't go away no matter how hard they try to stamp it out.

 

[Derek Jackson]

Japan did not have the physical means to coerce the whole of China. It did not manage an ideology to get Chinese to accept Japanese rule.

It was actually a crazy venture, no definable victory objective

 

[wcv215]

If Japan stocks to its 1931 borders it may be sustainable, expansion beyond this is less so

Problem being of course that the IJA officers would never have accepted being stuck in the 1931 borders. An officer would have ultimately attacked China to keep going, and no one would have stopped him. Any officer that tried would probably be relieved, and any government that tried would be overthrown.

 

[pjmidd]

For Japan even to keep hold of the China it had it needs the USA not to put the embargoes on. To do this it needs a complete mind set change in the IJA, no massacres, no attempts to grab extra territory. At this point its such a dramatic change that it would not be the Japan of WW2, you need to lose the racial belief that Chinese are inferior . Japanese destiny to rule the East, pretty much all the military culture around Bushido. A POD that can do that in 1931 without ASB mind washing and not have Japan in a civil war is impossible.
You do need by 1931 an ASB level POD, probably needing China to fall into some form of death cult so abhorrent to the US that they actually support Japan in suppressing it. Its a mass death scenario ( the only way that Japan can get and keep China involves some form of massive population reduction be it by internal violence or plague ) so don't even want to go deeper.

 

[Redbeard]

With the embargo Japan the capacity of Japan to act like a great power was closing fast, and hence also the chance to hold let alone expand in China or elsewhere. That Japan attacked thus was no surprise, she really had to do something. The strange thing is some thought they could be scared from attacking by sending two capital ships to Singapore or that it was impossible to attack PH - this was after all a year after Taranto.

But this again this point to the basics of intelligence: Don't try guessing what they will do but make a good judgement of what they are capable of.

 

[LeX]

I think Japan could "win" in the core area we think of as being Chinese (i.e. roughly everything easy of Xi'an) if it were somehow able to trap and crush the bulk of the KMT troops, topple of Chiang Kai-shek, and recruit from the warlord troops to find individuals willing to act as local enforcers. Without Chiang to tie down Japanese troops on the frontlines, and no Pacific War to steal resources, the Japanese can dedicate their full attention to the CCP and keep it bottled up or eradicated entirely.

Frankly I don't see what is so hard about this. China was experiencing the advent of modern nationalism, yes, but in 1931-ish it was still 95% peasants who lived in backward conditions and probably saw invading armies similarly to how peasants in the 1200s would have seen the invading Mongols: a brutal foreign presence to which submission or death are the only options. And Japanese rule would be similar to Mongol rule: extremely harsh, discriminatory, and short-lived.