If C16th Castille/Aragon/Portugal can convert Iberia to Catholicism, could a religious French monarchy do the same in the Maghreb in C19th?

[Socrates]

Prior to the Reconquista, Al-Andalus was about 80% Muslim. These lands became captured by Christian kingdoms, who through a combination of bribery, blackmail and expulsion converted the country to being devoutly Catholic.

By the time France conquered Algeria IOTL, the country had been through a revolution and had become far more secular as a society. While they preferenced Christians and Jews in French Algeria, they never really tried to convert the population wholescale. But what if the Revolution hadn't happened, and France instead evolved to be a more absolutist Christian state? Why couldn't a sufficiently evangelical King order mass conversions and expulsions if necessary? It would be an ugly, brutal, evil thing, but could it be successful? Especially as modern industrial powers have far more power projection than medieval monarchies.

 

[Andristan]

I would imagine that the the Church would object to forced conversions, seeing as she did so to Spain doing that in 16th cent. so I cannot imagine that Pius IX or even more Leo XIII not protesting about it. Besides, Spain worked because they could force out all the muslims as it was a peninsula, Algeria has land borders with other muslim territories, that fall under other less proselytizing regimes which could act as a refuge for muslim dissidents and supporters.

 

[Evil Crusader]

No, for many reasons.
One, cultural attitudes shift over time; in the 16th century Catholics saw themselves as the One True Religion in a much more militant way than they did three centuries later. The role of religion in society was much more emphasized (almost in the same way even in the 19th century it would seem far more central to us, 21st century denizens).
Two, demographic and political reasons: the starting position was much worse in Algeria than in Iberia, and even with a well-disposed series of Kings, the urgency of getting 'overseas France' to be Catholic was much less than that of having it in 'mainland Iberia'.
And of course, seeing how even settling eventually failed to produce results, I doubt similar efforts for conversion would go very far.
Now bluntly put, you could have some success, but it has to be a real commitment, one like the Fascist attempt at italianizing Libya, complete with mass forced resettlement and active deportations and of course, a total abandonment of other projects. But that is a lot of hoops to jump through, for a rough maybe.

 

[holycookie]

Prior to the Reconquista, Al-Andalus was about 80% Muslim.

Firstly, this is not about population, it's about territory. The population becomes predominantly Muslim in the 11th century, but it was a simple majority.

These lands became captured by Christian kingdoms

The lands were not capture; the main reason for the fall of Islamic Iberia is itself. While the Catholic kingdoms were militarized and more socially flexible, Islamic Iberia had a serious ethnic problem (Berbers, Arabs, and Muladis), a rather apathetic and less martial population (compared to Christian Iberia). This combination of factors led Islamic Iberia to be unable to compete with Catholic Iberia.

who through a combination of bribery, blackmail and expulsion converted the country to being devoutly Catholic.

Basically, after the invasion of the Almohads, religion became the central issue in the war for Iberia. So Muslims had two options: the sword or the cross (the Almohads basically did the same thing). Some converted, others did not.

Why couldn't a sufficiently evangelical King order mass conversions and expulsions if necessary? It would be an ugly, brutal, evil thing, but could it be successful?

In theory, yes, in practice it's quite difficult. But supposing we have a regime brutal enough, something like a fascist party in control of France. You can have a simple majority, in the long run, using tactics similar to those of Israel, you would have a Christian country.

 

[TheKutKu]

People forget there was a significant settler element in the reconquista, any genetic map of iberia proves this to the day, it wasn't just "converting", it was in many way replacing the previous population.

Also this ignores some very real attempt at converting algerians under even the 3rd republic, that, put frankly, failed.

 

[holycookie]

People forget there was a significant settler element in the reconquista, any genetic map of iberia proves this to the day, it wasn't just "converting", it was in many way replacing the previous population.

What genetic studies demonstrate is that there exists a population with a certain genetic inheritance originating from North Africa and Arab ancestry, albeit in small proportions. This is logical, particularly considering that Arabs and Berbers constituted minorities throughout the periods of Islamic rule in Iberia. Notably, studies suggest that North African genetic contributions to the Iberian gene pool amount to approximately 7%. These findings underscore a discernible genetic influence from these ethnic groups. The most substantial genetic alterations are observed among populations that did undergo conversion to Catholicism. Notably, there are regions in Portugal where up to 30% of the population exhibits Jewish descent. In essence, colonization, in the genetic sense, appears to have had less impact than commonly perceived, with the most significant genetic transformations arising from migratory movements influenced by religious factors. When considering the religious conflicts that hindered significant population movements between Iberia and North Africa, a continuous decline or stagnation in population exchange would be expected.

From an article:

The majority of Iberian paternal lineages are of Indo-European, which can be attributed to the Proto-Celtic and Hallstatt Celtic invaders, and to a lower extent to later Roman and Germanic settlers. In total, these amount to 50-85% of Spanish Y-DNA and 60% of Portuguese Y-DNA. Maternal lineages, on the other hand, appear to have a mostly Neolithic and Mesolithic origin, which make up over 80% of the mtDNA in regions like the Basque country or Asturias, and always over 50% of the population of any region.

Western Iberia, from Galicia and Asturias to southern Portugal and western Andalusia, have relatively high percentages of Southwest Asian Y-chromosomal haplogroups (E-M34, J1, J2a, T). Their historical origin is diverse, being the cumulative contributions of Levantine Neolithic herders, Phoenicians, Jews and Arabs, although their exact proportion remains difficult to assess and may vary a lot between regions. What can be ascertained is that northern regions such as Cantabria, Asturias and even Galicia have negligible medieval Arabic, Jewish and Phoenician ancestry, and therefore the presence of Southwest Asian haplogroups should be attributed to Neolithic herders. Maternal Southwest Asian lineages included especially HV, J1d, J2a2, U3, X1 as well as some K, T and X2 subclades. Autosomal data shows a maximum of 12% of Southwest Asian and Red Sea DNA in southern Portugal and western Andalusia, and a minimum of 0% in the Basque country.

Southwest Asian lineages are usually found side with North African lineages, like Y-haplogroup E-M81 and mt-haplogroups L, M1 and U6. The most likely explanation for the presence in Iberia is that they "hitchhiked" with Neolithic herders and medieval Arabic invaders passing through the Maghreb. Some North African lineages may even have come during the late Glacial period. The origin of mtDNA H1, H3 or HV0/V is unclear. They may have have been present in Iberia and/or the Maghreb in the Mesolithic period, since these three lineages are also found all over North Africa. Yet it can't be excluded that they integrated the Neolithic agricultural community in the Maghreb and moved into Iberia at that time. Autosomal data shows an average of 5% of North African DNA in the western half of Iberia, and 1 or 2% in the eastern half.

North-eastern Spain, from the Basque country to Catalonia, was colonised by Neolithic farmers from Italy and France, and consequently has the lowest incidence of Southwest Asian or North African DNA in the peninsula today.

Migrations and settlements in historical times had a smaller impact on the genetic structure of Iberian than Neolithic and Bronze Age events. Only Y-DNA can be used today to measure the contributions of other European populations in Iberia, and even Y-DNA can't yield accurate estimate without large quantities of high-resolution data. The Romans left perhaps between 1% and 15% of Y chromosomes behind them, with a higher proportion along the Mediterranean coast, in Andalusia and in Extremadura. Germanic male lineages now make up about 4% of the overall population, with the highest frequencies (6-10%) oberved in the north-west and Catalonia.

Source: https://www.eupedia.com/genetics/spain_portugal_dna.shtml#conclusion

 

[TheKutKu]

What genetic studies demonstrate is that there exists a population with a certain genetic inheritance originating from North Africa and Arab ancestry, albeit in small proportions. This is logical, particularly considering that Arabs and Berbers constituted minorities throughout the periods of Islamic rule in Iberia. Notably, studies suggest that North African genetic contributions to the Iberian gene pool amount to approximately 7%. These findings underscore a discernible genetic influence from these ethnic groups. The most substantial genetic alterations are observed among populations that did undergo conversion to Catholicism. Notably, there are regions in Portugal where up to 30% of the population exhibits Jewish descent. In essence, colonization, in the genetic sense, appears to have had less impact than commonly perceived, with the most significant genetic transformations arising from migratory movements influenced by religious factors. When considering the religious conflicts that hindered significant population movements between Iberia and North Africa, a continuous decline or stagnation in population exchange would be expected.

From an article:

The majority of Iberian paternal lineages are of Indo-European, which can be attributed to the Proto-Celtic and Hallstatt Celtic invaders, and to a lower extent to later Roman and Germanic settlers. In total, these amount to 50-85% of Spanish Y-DNA and 60% of Portuguese Y-DNA. Maternal lineages, on the other hand, appear to have a mostly Neolithic and Mesolithic origin, which make up over 80% of the mtDNA in regions like the Basque country or Asturias, and always over 50% of the population of any region.

Western Iberia, from Galicia and Asturias to southern Portugal and western Andalusia, have relatively high percentages of Southwest Asian Y-chromosomal haplogroups (E-M34, J1, J2a, T). Their historical origin is diverse, being the cumulative contributions of Levantine Neolithic herders, Phoenicians, Jews and Arabs, although their exact proportion remains difficult to assess and may vary a lot between regions. What can be ascertained is that northern regions such as Cantabria, Asturias and even Galicia have negligible medieval Arabic, Jewish and Phoenician ancestry, and therefore the presence of Southwest Asian haplogroups should be attributed to Neolithic herders. Maternal Southwest Asian lineages included especially HV, J1d, J2a2, U3, X1 as well as some K, T and X2 subclades. Autosomal data shows a maximum of 12% of Southwest Asian and Red Sea DNA in southern Portugal and western Andalusia, and a minimum of 0% in the Basque country.

Southwest Asian lineages are usually found side with North African lineages, like Y-haplogroup E-M81 and mt-haplogroups L, M1 and U6. The most likely explanation for the presence in Iberia is that they "hitchhiked" with Neolithic herders and medieval Arabic invaders passing through the Maghreb. Some North African lineages may even have come during the late Glacial period. The origin of mtDNA H1, H3 or HV0/V is unclear. They may have have been present in Iberia and/or the Maghreb in the Mesolithic period, since these three lineages are also found all over North Africa. Yet it can't be excluded that they integrated the Neolithic agricultural community in the Maghreb and moved into Iberia at that time. Autosomal data shows an average of 5% of North African DNA in the western half of Iberia, and 1 or 2% in the eastern half.

North-eastern Spain, from the Basque country to Catalonia, was colonised by Neolithic farmers from Italy and France, and consequently has the lowest incidence of Southwest Asian or North African DNA in the peninsula today.

Migrations and settlements in historical times had a smaller impact on the genetic structure of Iberian than Neolithic and Bronze Age events. Only Y-DNA can be used today to measure the contributions of other European populations in Iberia, and even Y-DNA can't yield accurate estimate without large quantities of high-resolution data. The Romans left perhaps between 1% and 15% of Y chromosomes behind them, with a higher proportion along the Mediterranean coast, in Andalusia and in Extremadura. Germanic male lineages now make up about 4% of the overall population, with the highest frequencies (6-10%) oberved in the north-west and Catalonia.

Source: https://www.eupedia.com/genetics/spain_portugal_dna.shtml#conclusion

I'm talking about middle age North->South intra-iberian migrations, these happened and left a significant north-south genetic pattern in Iberia, they're well documented and happened through various means through the centuries (organically on depopulated land & helped by partible inheritance, through privilege-incited communal repopulation, military orders or repartimientos and donadios), the various means left varying socio economic impact lasting today.

 

[holycookie]

I'm talking about middle age North->South intra-iberian migrations, these happened and left a significant north-south genetic pattern in Iberia, they're well documented and happened through various means through the centuries (organically on depopulated land & helped by partible inheritance, through privilege-incited communal repopulation, military orders or repartimientos and donadios), the various means left varying socio economic impact lasting today.

Certainly, wars and conquests tend to bring about such changes. This is especially evident when there is such animosity between Christian Iberians and Islamic Iberians (alongside external powers that interfered on the peninsula). As a whole, we can also observe this with the migration of the Indo-Europeans.

 

[Melvin Spivak]

I doubt it. The French territories in North Africa in addition to being 99% Muslim bordered countries that were 99% Muslim, if the French attempted that I’d expect multiple jihads from the Egyptians under Muhammad Ali Pasha and others to resist the infidels. Based on military might the French could win but owing to logistics and other issues I doubt they’d want the hassle

 

[nagachate]

I doubt it. The French territories in North Africa in addition to being 99% Muslim bordered countries that were 99% Muslim, if the French attempted that I’d expect multiple jihads from the Egyptians under Muhammad Ali Pasha and others to resist the infidels. Based on military might the French could win but owing to logistics and other issues I doubt they’d want the hassle

Muhammed Ali was allied with the French and had neither will nor authority afaik to issue a jihad. The French actually considered asking Muhammed Ali to help them invade Algeria in 1827, but he refused. The one power that could help would be Morocco.

Another problem is that unlike Libya, which the Fascists even struggle to genocide, Algeria is extremelly mountamous and green. It isnt a desert with a few population centers in the coast. Even conquering Algeria was extremelly costly, converting it would bankrupt France for good and bring down whatever absolutist madman decided to play crusader in the 19th century.

 

[Melvin Spivak]

Muhammed Ali was allied with the French and had neither will nor authority afaik to issue a jihad. The French actually considered asking Muhammed Ali to help them invade Algeria in 1827, but he refused. The one power that could help would be Morocco.

I’m assuming ittl the French start actively forcing conversions, which presumably would change the dynamic with MAP pretty fast

 

[Socrates]

Muhammed Ali was allied with the French and had neither will nor authority afaik to issue a jihad. The French actually considered asking Muhammed Ali to help them invade Algeria in 1827, but he refused. The one power that could help would be Morocco.

Another problem is that unlike Libya, which the Fascists even struggle to genocide, Algeria is extremelly mountamous and green. It isnt a desert with a few population centers in the coast. Even conquering Algeria was extremelly costly, converting it would bankrupt France for good and bring down whatever absolutist madman decided to play crusader in the 19th century.

Why would converting the Maghreb in the 19th C be more expensive than converting Iberia in the 16th C?

Everything I have read so far comes down to (a) culture has changed so religion is less important to Europeans and (b) there are Muslim neighbors that would fight it. But (a) can be changed by enough decades whipping up religious identity (see Serbia) and (b) can be defeated. Also Egypt is a long way from the Maghreb.

 

[Rhymehouse]

Wasn't Iberia Christian at first and always divided between Muslims, Christians, and Jews even during the peak of Al-Andalus? Although to be fair, North Africa was Christian a very long time ago as well.

Anyway, France wiped out 20% of Algeria's population during its conquest of it. If France was in a more genocidal mood and cared more about religion, they could wipe out even more Algerians, replace them with French settlers, and future generations will take up Catholicism in order to gain privileges in society. Of course doing all of this would make the French Empire anathema in all Muslim countries and cost them resources they could use to colonize other places, but far more implausible things have happened in world history.

 

[Cryptic]

Prior to the Reconquista, Al-Andalus was about 80% Muslim. These lands became captured by Christian kingdoms, who through a combination of bribery, blackmail and expulsion converted the country to being devoutly Catholic.

The 80% Muslim figure probably included a fair number of indigenous locals whose conversions to Islam were not that deep and who had converted as a requisite for social advancement or.... out of pure, unadulterated pragmatic desire to be on the dominate side (well, dominate at the time). As the Ottomans demonstrated, one does not need to be Christian to mount religious conversion campaigns based on "carrots and sticks" of varying sizes.

These types of converts in Andalusia (the name Al- Andalus was imported by the then dominate power) would still have either a personal memory, or a family memory of their former religion. Thus, conversions / reversions back to Christianity -also done with a certain amount of pressure or pragmatism would have been easier.

Meanwhile in the Maghreb, there was no living memory of the former religion....

 

[Polish Eagle]

I'm talking about middle age North->South intra-iberian migrations, these happened and left a significant north-south genetic pattern in Iberia, they're well documented and happened through various means through the centuries (organically on depopulated land & helped by partible inheritance, through privilege-incited communal repopulation, military orders or repartimientos and donadios), the various means left varying socio economic impact lasting today.

This is an interesting point, and reminds me of France's other demographic issues in the 19th century--the country started going through the demographic transition even before the first Revolution, and already in the 19th century there was an awareness that their birth rate was not particularly high compared to Germany's. Population pressures were a big part of intra-Iberian migration in the High Middle Ages, as peasants sought new land (one has to wonder whether the long pause in the Reconquista before the final conquest of Granada was a result of the Black Death lifting such pressures)--but does France in the 19th century even have the population surplus that would go to Algeria? Over a century IOTL, they Pied-Noir population only grew to about 1 million.

All of this is to suggest, if you want a "Reconquete" of Algeria, you need to prevent or reverse France's demographic transition and give it a need for lebensraum. Which, given what we know of demographic transitions IOTL, would imply that you'd want to reach all the way back to the 18th century or even beyond and prevent French secularization.

 

[Cryptic]

Everything I have read so far comes down to (a) culture has changed so religion is less important to Europeans and (b) there are Muslim neighbors that would fight it. But (a) can be changed by enough decades whipping up religious identity (see Serbia) and (b) can be defeated. Also Egypt is a long way from the Maghreb.

I agree with your concepts. But.... the required conversion of a significant majority may be too high.

For example, the Ottoman Turks initiated Islamic conversion campaigns backed by a "carrot and stick" approach.

Yet, the Ottoman convert batting average in the Balkans was probably about 5-10%. In Greece and Bulgaria, it fell to less than 5%. They had better batting in Albania. But even the stated 75% convert batting average in Albania might be overstated as Albanian religious identity seems to be fluid.

In the end, I am thinking that France going "Ottoman" in Maghreb in regards to conversions would probably yield the Balkan batting average of 5-10% at best. The high batting average in Albania might have depended on some pretty unique local circumstances.

 

[Socrates]

This is an interesting point, and reminds me of France's other demographic issues in the 19th century--the country started going through the demographic transition even before the first Revolution, and already in the 19th century there was an awareness that their birth rate was not particularly high compared to Germany's. Population pressures were a big part of intra-Iberian migration in the High Middle Ages, as peasants sought new land (one has to wonder whether the long pause in the Reconquista before the final conquest of Granada was a result of the Black Death lifting such pressures)--but does France in the 19th century even have the population surplus that would go to Algeria? Over a century IOTL, they Pied-Noir population only grew to about 1 million.

All of this is to suggest, if you want a "Reconquete" of Algeria, you need to prevent or reverse France's demographic transition and give it a need for lebensraum. Which, given what we know of demographic transitions IOTL, would imply that you'd want to reach all the way back to the 18th century or even beyond and prevent French secularization.

France had her demographic transition very early. It is debated whether it was caused by the Revolution or happened a decade or two before. Either way, a POD around 1750 or so to push them in a more theocratic direction could do it. More French settlers and more zealotry in conversion/ethnic cleansing.