Idi wins in Tanzania

[ShockMox]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uganda-Tanzania_War

What do you think would have happened if the joint Ugandan-Libyan didn't collapse against the Tanzanian army and rebels? Idi Amin wanted to annex the Kagera region of Tanzanian, so what do you think the world's reaction be to this?

Personally, I doubt the international community would do anything to stop Idi Amin. Hell, when Tanzanian did win the war and oust one of the most horrible dictators in modern African history, the rest of the world condemned it and did nothing to stop Tanzania's rising debts as a result of the war.

 

[Ismail]

I think it would have destabilized Uganda and would have furtherer hampered relations between the UK and Amin's regime. The OAU may have not liked Tanzania moving in to overthrow Amin, but I doubt the OAU would have taken kindly to Amin annexing territory either.

It's worth noting that Amin was seen as a "buffoonish" character at the time. People already had the image that he was a repressive dictator, but not to the extent of now. Similar to how everyone basically knew the Khmer Rouge were pretty bad guys, but nothing seriously bad up until the Vietnamese overthrew them and everyone realized what they were actually doing.

 

[asnys]

Idi Amin's regime probably wouldn't have lasted much longer in any event, but he'd have been able to hold on for a while longer, and the character of his fall would have been different. Sooner or later he'd have pissed off the Army enough for them to remove him, or UNLA or another rebel movement would build up enough strength to overthrow him. Hopefully someone other than Obote would have taken over in the end.

I couldn't say what would happen in Tanzania, but probably nothing good.

 

[Wendell]

The OAU, and now the African Union, have generally been opposed to changes of borders among African countries. That likely applies here too. If the war gets that bad, there will be help coming to Tanzania to repulse the invasion.