This is part of the "research" process for new TL that I am developing based on a different outcome to Great Northern War. Because it has a successful and surviving Charles XII of Sweden and possibly also Charles III of Austria as King of Spain, I've decided to call it "Charles in Charge". (Bonus points for those who get the joke without looking it up.)
In 1700 after decisively defeating Peter the Great at Narva in Swedish Ingria, Charles XII of Sweden decides to wait until summer and break the siege by Augustus II of Saxony at Riga, continues to focus on the Saxons and control of Poland-Lithuania. Russia was able to rest up and rearm and, after a few more but not as bad losses, their manpower let them win with the title turning at Poltava in 1709.
But there are accounts saying that some of Charles' generals urged him to take out Peter the Great in 1700 since they were utterly devastated after the first Narva confrontation, losing all their canons and military supplies to the Swedes.
They did lose their artillery but:
(a) An army besieging Narva represented only a part of the forces that Peter had at that time.
(b) By the time Charles arrived the besieging army was very short on all types of supply.
(c) While the losses were high, most of the Russian troops got away, especially the best infantry unites (Preobrazensky, Semenovsky and Lefort regiments and Weide's division) and practically all cavalry.
(d) The victorious Swedes had been very short on supplies before the battle and capturing the Russian camp did not improve situation too much (see (b)).
(е) Captured Russian artillery was of no use to the Swedes because it was mostly low caliber (few big cannons were from the previous reign(s)) and run out of cannonballs after 2 weeks of the fruitless bombardment of the fortress.
So imagine if this happens:
- Peter the Great had left a couple of days before the battle, claiming responsibilities in Moscow
Actually, he left for Novgorod where the corps of Prince Repnin was staying (10,000 regular troops and 11,000 Cossacks).
- 30 November 1700, Charles XII defeats the Russian army, capturing their equipment, and the Russians beak and run
- It's a blustery winter but the Swedes both before and after this show the ability to carry out and win winter wars against forces twice as large, so Charles XII has his army follow the Russians.
"The horses do not have a sense of a patriotism and should not be left starving" and his troops had been starving as well. Capture of the Russian camp did not improve food situation noticeably (except that considerable number of Swedes got drunk even before the fight was over). In other words, his practical ability to launch an immediate chase was quite limited.
- Peter the Great has only made it to Novogorod and the Swedes catch him there forcing a battle on 7 December 1700
Sounds as a complete nonsense taking into an account that Novgorod was a fortified place and that there were more than 20,000 Russian troops there. Not to mention that after Narva Swedish army was not in a good shape for marching for more than 100 km in 4 days (Weide's division left the camp only on December 2nd) during the winter without supplies across the territory where the opponent's irregular cavalry would prevent a meaningful foraging (in OTL Sheremetev's cavalry started raiding of the Swedish-held Baltic provinces only 2 weeks after defeat at Narva).
With all traditional brouhaha about Narva (which was, indeed Swedish victory), Swedes could not break Russian positions on the right and left flanks and had to negotiate so most of the besieging army got away and a part of it got away in a good order.
- In the ensuing massacre, Peter the Great is killed by one of his own cannons while trying to escape to Tver
Typical "decision" of all problems: did that cannon fell on his head or perhaps he did not recognize one end of a cannon from another?
- The Boyar Duma of Russia sets up a hasty regency for 10 year old Tsarevich Alexei Petreyevich and sign a treaty repudiating the alliance with Saxony and are forced to give up Pskov
IIRC. Charles was not looking at capturing any piece of the Russian territory.
- The Boyars immediately set to squabbling, about the only thing they can agree on is reversing many of Peter the Great's unpopular modernisatons and increasing their own fiefs powers at the expense of the Tsardom
Elementary knowledge of the Russian history would tell you that they did not have "fiefs powers" at least since the time of Ivan the Terrible.