Humphrey wins in 68

Derek Jackson · Apr 9, 2006

In OTL the 1968 election was rather close. Maybe there was less trouble at the 1968 Demcorat Convention, maybe some of Nixon's alleged efforts to prevent Johnson's peace effort in Vietnam are exposed in the week before the election, maybe Johnson gets his heart attack earlier and President Humphrey takes office in September of October 1968, and wins in November/

What happens?

Evil Opus · Apr 9, 2006

The Vietnam War continues as in OTL, and Humphrey wins reelection in 1972. He refuses to admit Vietnam is a failure, and in 1976 Republican Ronald Reagan is elected and he pulls all troops out in 1977, ending a twelve year war. President Reagan loses in 1980 to Ted Kennedy, who in turn loses in 1984 to Bob Dole. President Dole is reelected in 1988, and in 1992 Republican Richard Lugar is elected narrowly. President Lugar wins reelection in 1996, and in 2000 Democrat Bill Bradley is elected. Hmmm....no safe way out of this one.

The Mists Of Time · Apr 9, 2006

The Viet Nam war would have dragged on for another four years the same way it had been going under President Johnson. More American soldiers being killed and wounded, more war protests and the turmoil that was causeing, perhaps the hippie and anti-establishment movement getting weirder and wilder.

President Humphrey loses in 1972. Richard Nixon is elected in 1972 and re-elected in 1976. There is no Watergate. The war ends under the Nixon Presidency. Ronald Reagan is elected in 1980. From 1980 on, pretty much the same as in OTL.

Evil Opus · Apr 9, 2006

The Mists Of Time said:
The Viet Nam war would have dragged on for another four years the same way it had been going under President Johnson. More American soldiers being killed and wounded, more war protests and the turmoil that was causeing, perhaps the hippie and anti-establishment movement getting weirder and wilder.

President Humphrey loses in 1972. Richard Nixon is elected in 1972 and re-elected in 1976. There is no Watergate. The war ends under the Nixon Presidency. Ronald Reagan is elected in 1980. From 1980 on, pretty much the same as in OTL.

No way Nixon is nominated in '72 after his losses in '60 and '68.

Tom_B · Apr 9, 2006

Alt Hist likes the familiar names (which is why President James Cox is so often avoided). If Nixon loses in 1968 the Republican race is wide open in 1972 and a very unfamiliar name could emerge.

Tgibbs · Apr 9, 2006

First, I agree that if Nixon loses in '68, after also losing in '60, and losing the '62 governor's race, he's finished. He's Thomas E. Dewey and Harold Stassen combined. The Republicans would never touch him again.

In OTL, Humphrey had many private doubts about the Vietnam War. As early as 1965, he wrote LBJ a memo suggesting we rethink our strategy. LBJ ignored him. Publicly, Humphrey felt he had to support the administration position. Privately, he had a lot of doubts.

As president, HHH would have ended the war much more quickly than Nixon did.

Tom B is right. With Nixon out of the picture, a mix of Republican governors and senators run in 1972, people like Chuck Percy, Howard Baker, maybe Reagan or Rockefeller. It's anybody's guess who wins. But Humphrey probably beats GOP Candidate X, and serves until 1977.

A Republican beats Muskie in 1976. Voters don't like having one party in power too long, and after 16 years of Democrats, they'd be ready for a change. But the Republican elected in '76 would have to deal with the inflation and the Iran hostage crisis, and that Republican would lose in 1980.

Wendell · Apr 9, 2006

Theodore McKeldin in 1972?

1940LaSalle · Apr 9, 2006

As someone who grew up with Theodore McKeldin as governor of his home state (I was born in Baltimore), that's admirable. But by then, he was pretty well beyond the age of making a successful run for the presidency (Reagan notwithstanding) and was fully retired. (If I recall correctly, one of the Baltimore TV stations had him on the air occasionally as a political commentator/consultant in those days.)

I have to agree that with a loss in '68, Nixon would have been finished. The Republicans have never had a three-time candidate (only William Jennings Bryan got the nomination a third time within the last hundred years). I'm guessing the '72 GOP nominee might well have been a second-stringer (maybe Elliott Richardson?), but the '76 nominee could easily have been Reagan.

And that's where things really start to diverge: I can't see Reagan in office in the late '70s being anywhere in the same time zone as Carter when it came to naivete over Iran, so it seems to me you can forget about a hostage crisis. Also, I don't think there would have been the same double-digit inflation that there was during the Carter years, since there likely wouldn't have been a Middle East series of crises of the same proportions to fuel said inflation.

Today, Jimmy Carter would be living in relative obscurity in Georgia as a former governor of the state, not at all well-known outside that part of the country. And quite possibly we'd be remembering the first actor in the White House as having been succeeded in 1985 by the first pro athlete: President Jack Kemp.