How would the Habsburg monarchy develop if it regained Silesia and gained Bavaria by the 1770s?
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Think you're going to have to ask a longer question/scenario to avoid being locked.
@Archduke @Carp @Vladivostock @Vitruvius @isabella
The imperial circles of Swabia and Franconia were more or less the last places where the local princes behaved like proper vassals of the Emperor instead of as sovereign princes. So if Bavaria are annexed by Austria these circles de facto becomes extension of Austria, creating a unified South German Block. The Austrians also gained control over the Cologne, Westphalia and Münster with a Austrian archduke as prince-archbishop (and prince-bishop and ecclesial duke) of these lands, with the Austrians stronger in South Germany they may use these better to control the Rhineland.
I expect that Joseph II will be able to better implement his reforms with him in a stronger position, the Silesians will love him for his religious tolerance and even a relative harsh Austrian hand will likely be softer than a Prussian hand, so they won’t join the uprising against Joseph II. So we likely see Joseph implement land reforms, establish German as sole administrative language, him establish a de facto independent Austrian church through still theoretical under the Pope’s authority. I expect a stronger Austria will defeat the Ottomans (if a war still happens) and annex Serbia, Moldova, Wallachia and northern Bosnia.
I expect that Joseph II will be able to better implement his reforms with him in a stronger position, the Silesians will love him for his religious tolerance and even a relative harsh Austrian hand will likely be softer than a Prussian hand, so they won’t join the uprising against Joseph II. So we likely see Joseph implement land reforms, establish German as sole administrative language, him establish a de facto independent Austrian church through still theoretical under the Pope’s authority. I expect a stronger Austria will defeat the Ottomans (if a war still happens) and annex Serbia, Moldova, Wallachia and northern Bosnia.
In what ways did Franconia and Swabia still behave like vassals?
Wouldn't he be looking to Germany for expansion rather than the Balkans?
Well, not an expert on the period.
But if Prussia is no longer around as the power it became after 1741, then I think that the Diplomatic Revolution would end or would start becoming increasingly irrelevant. Also, if Louis Ferdinand doesn't die as he did 1765 and ascended to the throne, France might take an increasingly anti - Austrian stance. This means no continuation of the alliance and no marriage agreement (Maria Josepha could perhaps manage to marry Louis Auguste with a Saxon princess - an interesting thing in its own if the Dauphin and his elder son still end up dying earlier than Louis XV and thus Louis Auguste ends up king - but with a different spouse). So, I think that when the crisis of the Bavarian succession kicks in, France would probably be at best (for Austria) neutral, if it doesn't want to engage in another European war, or side with those opposing the annexation. So it might actually be even more difficult than OTL for the Austrians to pull this off.
But if Prussia is no longer around as the power it became after 1741, then I think that the Diplomatic Revolution would end or would start becoming increasingly irrelevant. Also, if Louis Ferdinand doesn't die as he did 1765 and ascended to the throne, France might take an increasingly anti - Austrian stance. This means no continuation of the alliance and no marriage agreement (Maria Josepha could perhaps manage to marry Louis Auguste with a Saxon princess - an interesting thing in its own if the Dauphin and his elder son still end up dying earlier than Louis XV and thus Louis Auguste ends up king - but with a different spouse). So, I think that when the crisis of the Bavarian succession kicks in, France would probably be at best (for Austria) neutral, if it doesn't want to engage in another European war, or side with those opposing the annexation. So it might actually be even more difficult than OTL for the Austrians to pull this off.
My impression was that Joseph's interest in Bavaria was in substantial part a reaction to Austria's recent losses. Prussia had challenged Habsburg hegemony and had emerged as a rival power within the empire. Gaining (part of) Bavaria was a means of compensating for the loss of Silesia and consolidating power in the German imperial core to try and regain that hegemony. If there is no "Miracle of Brandenburg," Austria regains Silesia, and Prussia is diminished so that it no longer threatens Habsburg hegemony, then why exactly is the "Bavarian scheme" necessary at all?
Probably being recruiting grounds for the Imperial army.
The local nobility serving as officer in the Austrian armies and as Austrian bureaucrats, the circle diet making rules about cross border trade etc.
If I'm France and Prussia is broken, and I'm dealing with Britain as my main enemy, who do I want as allies? I have Spain, but they are not enough, so I need one more major power. I would much rather have Austria than Russia, who is too far away from Britain to cause them any problems.
If I'm Austria and Russia is now projecting power into Eastern Europe, I would be much more worried about Russian expansion than anything else. Britain doesn't have an army big enough to halt Moscow, and has stabbed me in the back before, and is the wrong religion. France is still my best option.
Well, if no miracle of the House of Brandenburg happened, then Austria almost certainly manages to force Prussia to give up Silesia; France probably gets the Austrian Netherlands (actually it's an interesting question, what would happen to the Austrian Netherlands, since the British wouldn't like the French gaining power in that area but on the other hand, they don't have many ways to force Austria to not hand over the territory or France to not accept it, unless the French government wanted peace at any cost). Prussia is broken at least for a generation, having being devastated by warfare for years and lost its wealthiest province . This means the balance of power in Germany changes quite dramatically and in effect returns to the pre-1741 situation, where Austria is clearly the dominant power in Germany.
Now Austria is free of the Prussian threat and is able to be more active in German affairs, which runs counter to the interests of French policy in the area, which relies on the close ties with Saxony and Bavaria. Why would France maintain an alliance with the distinct possibility of seeing her influence in Germany taking a hit? Furthermore, there is the question of how Austria tries to get Bavaria; because IOTL, on both occasions (1779 and 1785), the plans involved the Austrian Netherlands, which are now most likely part of the Kingdom of France. If Austria kept the lands there (which Maria Theresa had promised to Louis XV in exchange for his support) and recovered Silesia, I think that livid would be a weak term to describe the feelings of Verasailles and would guarantee France distancing itself from Vienna. So, how would Joseph manage to entice the Wittelsbach elector ITTL? And even if he can do it, France wouldn't support him; they didn't support him IOTL, here they would have very little reason to support a move that would benefit only Austria at the end of the day, since again, there is no Prussia as a powerful German and European state.
If France is preparing to get to war with Britain, how could Austria help? I mean, there was no land war and in any case, the French army would be more than sufficient to conquer Hannover and neutralise any British allies in continental Europe (most likely smaller German states). On the her hand, Austria is again the main competitor of France for power and influence in Germany and Italy.
About the second paragraph, Austria may be more willing to maintain the alliance, but with Prussia neutralised and a more dynamic German policy, friction with France is most likely unavoidable; if Austria wants to see French power reduced, it would probably make more sense to approach Britain, which could also provide Austria with ample funding to sustain large scale operations against the French for a longer period of time.
@Tanaka did nothing wrong: the Austrian Netherlands could end up as a compensation for the now former ruler of Bavaria..
If France has annexed the land? Why would they agree to part with it?
The Bavarian Scheme had been floating around since the WotSS (possibly before) in various forms. At Utrecht, there'd been talk of Austria surrendering Naples in exchange for receiving Bavaria minus the Oberpfalz. A previous offer had been for the Southern Netherlands in exchange for the same, but William III refused to allow it. Then before the WotAS, Maria Theresia reached out via the Dowager Empress Wilhelmine to Karl VII offering him a kingdom in the Southern Netherlands or the grand duchy of Tuscany in exchange for him renouncing Bavaria in favour of François Étienne. This proposal was again dusted off in the Treaty of Fussen but was met with opposition from the Dowager Empress Maria Amalie, Prince Klemens Franz de Paula of Bavaria, the elector of Cologne and the prince-bishop of Liège.
The reason WASN'T to make up for the loss of Silesia, but rather the Habsburgs attempting to rid themselves of what they saw as their chief rival. If Prussia is neutered through no Silesia or no Miracle of the House of Brandenburg, then Bavaria once more becomes Austria's main rival in Germany and the swap actually becomes, IMO, more likely rather than less.
I don't think anyone wants France to annex the Southern Netherlands, so IMHO that won't happen.
Edit: there also was an idea for an exchange of the duchy of Parma, Piacenza and Guastella for the Southern Netherlands, I could see it as French proxy state, but not directly French.
Still I think Southern Netherlands for Bavaria, once the Palatinate Wittelsbachs end up inheriting Bavaria is a more likely exchange.
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Because it adds wealth and territory to his real
The 7YW was actually two wars. If we take away the Miracle, the likely result is that Austria and Russia win the war in the East but France has still lost the war in the West. She was defeated when the Hanoverians re-entered the war, with British subsidies, and defeated the French army.
You raise a valid point, but it could be a British-French entente situation, where both sides settle their differences because of larger strategic threats elsewhere. Perhaps France accepts Austria having a larger role in Germany in exchange for France having more influence in Italy. Also the AN come into play, which I will get to...
My understanding is that in the first treaty the Austrians did support the award of the AN to France (or a junior French prince). But, crucially, this provision was removed when the treaty was modified a year later. So France has no expectation of Austria owing her this. And if she loses in the West while Austria wins in the East, then France will want to focus on regaining lost possessions. But France still wants the AN long term, so an alliance is a potential best route to get it given it has been discussed before.
As mentioned, the AN is still in play. There is also the option of Tuscany, which is valuable for a minor European royal but of limited strategic use to Austria. I could potentially see a three way movement with the Elector getting Tuscany, hither Austria, Cleves and Berg (for his illegitimate progeny); Austria getting Bavaria and France getting AN.
France's fundamental strategic problem is that Britain can channel all it's money into a navy, while France needs both an army and a navy for major wars. This wrecked her in the 7YW and caused her to face bankruptcy. By having Austria tie down Hannover, she can focus entirely on the naval war without paying for an expensive land war. Also Hannover held her own against France in the later stages of the 7YW (partially because France ran out of money).
But Britain is an unreliable ally. She stabbed Austria in the back in the previous war and has stabbed Prussia in the back in this one. Maria Theresa was particularly anti-British because of this. And, as I said, Austria would be way more worried about Russia once she owns East Prussia.
I get that bit, I don't get how the Wittelsbachs are inheriting Bavaria
VVD0D95
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Because they were the next in line after the mainline, likely what might happen is a territorial exchange. Austria gets Bavaria, and they get Southern Netherlands.