How viable would a surviving Manchukuo be
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FillyofDelphi
Banned
Oh, it would be a source of insurgency, but Japan would make it work. The importance of the region in providing Japanese industry with a dependable stream of raw resources, as well as acting as a "rice bowl" for the home islands, was simply far too great for them to contemplate doing much otherwise. It would certainly be a drain on the Empire for awhile as additional settlers and resource-extraction capital were pumped in to fully exploit the province, but it would arguably end up the least the problematic of Japan's Pacific War gains on the mainland.
Puyi doesnt have controll of the land or military, he's just a frustrated prisoner in a palace surrounded by concubines and opium, when the Japanese leave he gets overthrown by either communists or nationalists.
RousseauX
Donor
Manchuria was 95% ethnic Han by the 1930s
That by itself isn't a deal breaker imo for at least a few decades, it's more that there's two big powers: the USSR and some kind of China next to it that can smuggle arms/support/personnel across a very, very long border that makes holding onto Manchuria hard even on the short to medium run.
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RousseauX
Donor
in OTL they got something like 500,000 settlers in Manchuria by 1945 which is 1.6% of the population, I think realistically you can to maybe 2-3% of the population because it's actually pretty difficult to convince Japanese people to emigrate to Manchuria since Japan itself had higher wages
A communist Manchuria is far more likely than a surviving Japanese Manchuria. And a Japanese Manchuria would eventually be overthrown by Communist insurgency. Would explain in detail later.
If we have Japan filling the Russian void after the Great War but not otherwise getting up to the idea of conquering China, perhaps with a stronger British and French presence and American influence, then one might see this divided China last. If we have a USSR then it will back the KMT and help subvert Manchuria as the USSR engages Japan, if the Russian Republic survives then it might also follow a similar revanche path, backing the KMT to distract Japan. The USA sought concessions in Manchuria as part of the Open Door that helped build the Japan versus USA mind set, so I think the USA backs a revanche China to some degree. The issue is just how broken is this China?
Can the KMT reassert central authority, break the warlords and move forward to modernize China, get industry and independence from the Europeans yet not run afoul of Japan to spark open warfare? It is this backdrop that a Japanese Manchuria must face. I think Imperial Japan can hold on to it within the stalemate of competing British, Russian and American interests, cross-cutting designs for China itself and a recognition that Japan is just another parasite feeding upon China. Long term it should be Russia, Soviet or not, that has to reassert itself in Manchuria, the support it gets might be none or all. If Soviet then you might indeed see a Communist insurrection and new puppet state like Mongolia, if a non-Soviet Russia it might get weird. I am doubtful the Russians care to back Mao and his brand of communism. Without WW2 you might see a longer lasting Imperial Japan stuck in the Asian version of a multilateral cold war, yet it may not be so clear cut who is on who's side. This is where I am ending up with an Imperial Germany, it backs China in an uneasy enemy of my enemy is my friend partnership with Russia to unseat Japan who is still British aligned but the USA is against both in China with France more an outsider to the evolving Chinese situation. Here I have ROC get further but holding less, as it gets towards parity with Imperial Japan the world moves closer to an Asian war. No one wants a revitalized China made whole but all sides play against each other with proxy China and its pieces, so more picking away at ROC through warlords and such. I am toying with a non-Soviet Russia just to warp things and a very chilly Anglo-American relationship to give Japan harder choices. With its empire intact, Imperial Japan can be a serious top-five contender even if it fails to see its economic miracle post-war as OTL, it certainly can get in the top-ten and be a very serious regional power against any one of the others. I painted myself into a 4 or 5 way superpower stand off. I do not know if it is a better history for China but it certainly is a different rocky road.
Can the KMT reassert central authority, break the warlords and move forward to modernize China, get industry and independence from the Europeans yet not run afoul of Japan to spark open warfare? It is this backdrop that a Japanese Manchuria must face. I think Imperial Japan can hold on to it within the stalemate of competing British, Russian and American interests, cross-cutting designs for China itself and a recognition that Japan is just another parasite feeding upon China. Long term it should be Russia, Soviet or not, that has to reassert itself in Manchuria, the support it gets might be none or all. If Soviet then you might indeed see a Communist insurrection and new puppet state like Mongolia, if a non-Soviet Russia it might get weird. I am doubtful the Russians care to back Mao and his brand of communism. Without WW2 you might see a longer lasting Imperial Japan stuck in the Asian version of a multilateral cold war, yet it may not be so clear cut who is on who's side. This is where I am ending up with an Imperial Germany, it backs China in an uneasy enemy of my enemy is my friend partnership with Russia to unseat Japan who is still British aligned but the USA is against both in China with France more an outsider to the evolving Chinese situation. Here I have ROC get further but holding less, as it gets towards parity with Imperial Japan the world moves closer to an Asian war. No one wants a revitalized China made whole but all sides play against each other with proxy China and its pieces, so more picking away at ROC through warlords and such. I am toying with a non-Soviet Russia just to warp things and a very chilly Anglo-American relationship to give Japan harder choices. With its empire intact, Imperial Japan can be a serious top-five contender even if it fails to see its economic miracle post-war as OTL, it certainly can get in the top-ten and be a very serious regional power against any one of the others. I painted myself into a 4 or 5 way superpower stand off. I do not know if it is a better history for China but it certainly is a different rocky road.
Manchuria would probably be viable in the short to medium term. The Japanese already crushed most guerrilla resistance in the 1930s and demonstrated a terrifying ability to keep the population under control and productive (often with concentration camp death rates). The Imperial Army valued the land dearly, mobilizing untold sums to develop Manchurian industry and infrastructure. Every year they stay there means another year that more fortifications are made, more work done, and more of an integral part of the Japanese empire the region becomes.
To counter this from happening, the ROC would probably begin waging a combination of direct and asymmetrical warfare after it's confident in the strength of its reformed central army and provided the communists aren't too powerful, but I think there's a good chance that Japanese colonial development will outpace these efforts, as the ROC has a long road ahead of it in modernizing and centralizing the country.
The Soviet Union isn't going to just attack out of the blue anytime soon. Stalin is too cautious for that, and besides, without a greater conflict the Japanese Army will be able to dedicate its full attention to defending Manchuria.
A few decades down the road, after the slaughter and development wind down, some sort of decolonization and reunification with China (it could even be the "Manchurians" that unify China!) is likely. There are too many Han Chinese in Manchuria and their number can only grow; in fact the Japanese were actively encouraging immigration from North China to increase the expendable labor pool.
To counter this from happening, the ROC would probably begin waging a combination of direct and asymmetrical warfare after it's confident in the strength of its reformed central army and provided the communists aren't too powerful, but I think there's a good chance that Japanese colonial development will outpace these efforts, as the ROC has a long road ahead of it in modernizing and centralizing the country.
The Soviet Union isn't going to just attack out of the blue anytime soon. Stalin is too cautious for that, and besides, without a greater conflict the Japanese Army will be able to dedicate its full attention to defending Manchuria.
A few decades down the road, after the slaughter and development wind down, some sort of decolonization and reunification with China (it could even be the "Manchurians" that unify China!) is likely. There are too many Han Chinese in Manchuria and their number can only grow; in fact the Japanese were actively encouraging immigration from North China to increase the expendable labor pool.
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Hmm , in the EDC (where a militaristic Japan sort-of prospered for a few decades before collapsing under it's own corruption) it was something of a bleeding sore (e.g. insurgency) but this was coped with by a colonisation programme (several million Japanese and 'reliable' asian) plus brutal repression (poison gas, reprisals, torture, hostages et cetera). As China waxed and Japan waned it got rather nasty.
Japan continues to go after Asia and averts war with the US, which probably requires a hardline isolationist US and a Japan that has the foresight not to fight with them. That means the Russians go after Asia, and maybe Japan hangs onto Manchuria (which makes Korea interesting since that could involve Japan sandwiched between two Communist nations in Manchuria.)
The likelier scenario is what we saw above - the KMT keeps order in China and the Reds take Manchuria. With a lesser Communist state on the Korean border, maybe the Kim demagogues lose or end up with a much smaller NK.
A far more restrained or constrained Japan here, it has Russia on three sides, ROC on one side and a more active British, American and even French presence in Asia/China. Japan trades heavily with the USA but has better links to the UK per its either creaking Alliance or the echoes of it. I would predict a renewed relationship with Britain as the Russians gear up in Asia and the USA might overlook more so long as Japan does not attempt to invade the rest of China. I do not think the USA would go to war over China alone but it has the same economic levers to keep Japan in line if her Army does not go crazy on the government. Long term the Japanese face insurgency from both the ROC and Russia and maybe the low boil of border clashes, proxy wars in the warlord provinces until ROC can get them quashed, still a lot of life in Japan holding Manchuria as a vassal. You might be right as to Korea, I think there might be the biggest fracture there if the ROC or Russia actually support the independence minded and Japan goes heavy handed. All still unstable but the Pacific War does not have to be inevitable, nor a united and assertive China, the ROC era might be weak, wobbly and wonky enough to leave her trapped between Russia and Japan with British and Americans meddling on going.
Could Japan successfully assimilate some of the Han Chinese into a Manchurian or Japanese identity and get them to identify with Manchukuo or Japan
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Not unless they loosen up on the oppression and if they loosen up on the oppression well rebels start popping up and gun running becomes a favourite black market activity or in other words know Japan is gonna lose Manchukuo eventually whether from its own weight or from the RoC moving across the border en mass