So I think WWI can only be avoided if the side favouring status quo is decidedly stronger - or at least believed to be so.
There are potentially two landpowers who can be dominant in the continent at this point: Germany and Russia. Germany has been dominant after the war of 1870 and as it acquired everything it really wanted this ment peace. However when this dominance disappeared it resulted pretty fastly in war.
Russia on the other hand has been constantly expanding since Peter the Great and was trying to do so till the end. However at the end of the 19th century this led to conflict wherever they tried to do so. Outside of Europe this ment conflict with Britain and in Europe (Balkans) with Austria (and previously Britain and France).
For the rest: France isnt strong enough alone to attack Germany and im not sure if they would have started a world war for Alsace even if they thought they were stronger. Brittain has clearly won the naval race against Germany and after that I dont see them starting a war themselfs. Austria IMO wont take more on the Balkans than OTL and be content if he can have the peninsula (or a part of it) under his influence - it already had huge minority problems and couldnt even decide what to do with Bosnia. Italy wont start anything serious on his own.
So IMO if we take out Russian expansionism of the equation the result should be a more permanent peace. However how to do that? OTL it took the end of the regime. Is there any other way?
There are potentially two landpowers who can be dominant in the continent at this point: Germany and Russia. Germany has been dominant after the war of 1870 and as it acquired everything it really wanted this ment peace. However when this dominance disappeared it resulted pretty fastly in war.
Russia on the other hand has been constantly expanding since Peter the Great and was trying to do so till the end. However at the end of the 19th century this led to conflict wherever they tried to do so. Outside of Europe this ment conflict with Britain and in Europe (Balkans) with Austria (and previously Britain and France).
For the rest: France isnt strong enough alone to attack Germany and im not sure if they would have started a world war for Alsace even if they thought they were stronger. Brittain has clearly won the naval race against Germany and after that I dont see them starting a war themselfs. Austria IMO wont take more on the Balkans than OTL and be content if he can have the peninsula (or a part of it) under his influence - it already had huge minority problems and couldnt even decide what to do with Bosnia. Italy wont start anything serious on his own.
So IMO if we take out Russian expansionism of the equation the result should be a more permanent peace. However how to do that? OTL it took the end of the regime. Is there any other way?