How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms

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Withdrawal to the Vistula?

Two questions...

1) Is there any change to the troops in the Courland Pocket? (Either because of butterflies previously in the TL or because of Hitler's orders...
2) This would mean essentially *giving* East Prussia and Danzig to the Soviets. These areas (especially East Prussia) would have a significant number of 'Good' Germans in them...
 
Evacuating Courland sounds like a sensible idea but its practically impossible for Germany to carry out given that they don't have the sealift capability and the Kriegsmarine won't be able to cover the evacuation. At Dunkirk the Royal Navy had complete sea supremacy and the RAF was able to provide a limited air cover, it was also right in Britain's backyard. Courland is much further from Reich territory and the Wehrmacht will have to abandon all the heavy equipment, there was a discussion about this on here a few years ago and the feeling was it would have been a catastrophe for Germany. Also the Soviets had to deploy significant forces to keep Courland bottled up, take that away and guess where those Army Groups go?
 

Geon

Donor
Update

Just in case you thought I had forgotten the Japanese who started this whole mess!
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Date: December 28, 1944
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Time: 8:00 a.m. [Japanese time]

Emperor Hirohito heard the sound of the air raid sirens going off in the city proper and nodded as his aide appeared to conduct him to his personal air raid shelter under the Imperial Palace. In a short time he would know whether his gamble of a month ago had paid off.

The War Cabinet always met in their headquarters downtown at 8 a.m. each morning. He had made the Americans aware of that in his message to them. If the Americans were successful in this raid Hirohito would be able to form a new government that could agree to end this madness.

The last month had seen a terrible retaliation by the Americans in response to Operation Silent Cherry Blossom. Virtually every city in Japan had experienced the same pattern of high explosive and incendiary attacks followed by mustard gas two hours later. The casualties now were estimated to be over two million. It would be decades before many of Japan’s cities would ever be rebuilt. His people were suffering horribly for the sins of their leaders. Something had to be done!

As the sound of anti-aircraft fire and explosions began to grow in the distance Hirohito found himself in the unusual position of praying both for his people that were under those explosions and for the American bombers that their aim would be true this day.


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Six hours later over the Pacific Ocean heading south back to Saipan, General Curtis LeMay was not a happy man. The bombing run on Tokyo had been ordered to be high explosive and incendiary only. That did not sit well with many in his squadron many of which had loved ones in Los Angeles, St. Louis, and New York. Further, the mission was a low altitude one; it had to be to allow for pinpoint bombing of the primary target, the War Cabinet HQ. That meant not only more danger from antiaircraft but also more chance of attack by Japan’s still formidable interceptor force, many of whom had the gruesome tactic of ramming their interceptors into the bellies of B-29s to ensure they were destroyed.

The General had left Saipan with 400 bombers bound for Tokyo. He had been in the first wave of 100 bombers. From what he could see of the initial wave of 100, there were 87 left and the up to half the others were badly shot up during the raid, including his own plane. Still, hopefully they had softened up the target for the others to finish the job.

His copilot spoke urgently ending the General’s brief reverie. “Oil pressure is still dropping; I think the oil lines must have been hit pretty badly. I don’t think the old girl is going to make it back to Saipan. LeMay scanned the instruments then looked out and listened to the sound of the engines becoming more and more labored. He cursed floridly and said, “We’re probably going to have to ditch!” Get the crew ready. How’s Phil doing?” Phil was the tail gunner who had been very badly hurt when one of the Japanese fighters had scored several hits on the tail area of the plane. The crew had managed to patch him up as much as they could with the first aid kit on board but he was still suffering from loss of blood and shock. “Not good sir,” came the reply. “I was just back there and he’s in a pretty bad way. Unless we get him to a doctor soon he won’t make it.

LeMay uttered a silent curse then said, “Get everyone ready.” A quick radioed message to the other bombers followed detailing the position of the plane and LeMay’s intention to ditch. His decision was further confirmed as one of the engines abruptly growled and began to die, followed by another. It took all of his skill and strength and that of his copilot to keep the plane level.

The B-29 came in on a shallow glide and hit the ocean as if it were a runway, a tribute to its pilot and co-pilot. “Everyone out,” yelled LeMay! Quickly the crew released themselves from their harnesses and headed to the various parts of the plane where they would dive out their life jackets on. LeMay in the meantime headed back to where his tail gunner Phil was. Phil was still strapped into his seat, and though LeMay wasn't a doctor he could see Phil was dying. Moving him would be fatal; there was nothing that could be done. Water was coming in fast and the plane was sinking, his copilot yelled to the General that they needed to go with a lump in his throat as he realized they were leaving Phil to his death. The General prepared to go, hesitated and then yelled simply, “Go, now!” The copilot turned and was preparing to join the others in the sea when he turned back and saw the General had turned back and was sitting next to Phil and saying, “It’s okay son, we’ll take her down together.” The copilot dove in with the rest of the crew following orders, tears in his eyes.

The crew watched as the B-29 slowly settled into the sea taking Phil and Curtis LeMay with it. Two days later they would be rescued by a Flying Boat out of Saipan. LeMay would receive decorations posthumously for his courageous actions. In the 1980’s President Reagan would refer to LeMay’s sacrifice often in his speeches as an illustration of bravery and self sacrifice.* Finally in 1997, Robert Ballard, the man who found Titanic would lead an expedition that would locate LeMay’s plane and recover the remains of both LeMay and the tail gunner. They would be buried at Arlington National Cemetery with full honors. As one of the surviving crew would say the day they laid him to rest, “LeMay could be one tough sob, but deep down he had a heart of gold.”

* Reagan often did refer to an incident similar to this one, and there is a question whether it really occurred or was apocryphal. For purposes of this story this is the incident he referred to.
 
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PhilippeO

Banned
His people were suffering horribly for the sins of their leaders. Something had to be done!

Not sure about this. Japan had suffered "government by assassination" before, and the assassins is awfully young and low-ranking, there is even coup attempt after Hirohito surrender in OTL. and war in China is provoked by young officer in Manchuria, not generals from Tokyo. eliminating pro-war leader will not mean Hirohito could establish government or control the military, there will be coup and assassination attempt. Even if Hirohito succeed, this could create "stab in the back" myth, strengthening ultra-nationalist in post-war government.
 

Geon

Donor
SHAEF HQ

Here is an assesment of the Battle of the Ardennes as it will be called (not Bulge)as seen from the Allies perspective.
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Date: December 29, 1944
Location: Paris (SHAEF HQ)
Time: 11:00 a.m.

In his office Omar Bradley was receiving a briefing from General Montgomery and General Patton. Both men had been summoned on short notice to Paris to report to Bradley now that the major fighting in the Battle of Belgium as it was now called was dying down. Also at the meeting were military representatives from Antwerp and the USAAF to brief Bradley on the situation at the port and with the Army Air Forces.

“If two words could describe my army at this moment,” began Montgomery, “those two words would be – bloody mess. We finally managed to stop the Panzers but it took all our reserve strength. At present I only have 1 in 4 tanks in my army that are operational. And my men have been fighting for several days straight with hardly any sleep many of them are literally dropping from exhaustion. The casualties are bad and there’s no way to transport them back to the rear areas with the refugee problems we’re facing. We have to treat them with what we have at the front in Antwerp and the hospital supplies there were kindly removed by Jerry before we occupied the place.”

Patton spoke up, “It’s not as bad for my men but almost. In my case the lost tank ratio is about 1 in every 8. That’s still not good. And my men are about on the same level of exhaustion as Monty’s are. Most of them haven’t had a moment to rest for the last several days since this damn offensive started. They simply aren’t ready for another sustained effort."

Bradley turned to another military aide and asked about the refugee problem. “It’s bad sir. The free use of chemical weapons by both the Germans and by us in the latter part of the battle for Antwerp caused many civilians to panic and abandon their homes. We can’t even guess how many civilian casualties there have been because of the gas weapons that were used not only in Antwerp but in Brussels, Luxembourg City and elsewhere. And all the roads in the forward areas are jammed with refugees heading either south or west. I can’t blame them for wanting to get out of there, after all what are we going to tell them ‘Stay in your homes and choke to death?’” The aide realized he had been somewhat blunt in his appraisal and started to apologize only to be stopped by Bradley. “Thanks Colonel, but I need you to speak to me plainly at this point. I need to know what we have to work with at this moment and what our problems are. And right now the civilians are a major problem.”

Bradley turned to another officer, “What about Antwerp is the port still usable?” The officer, a Major General looked at his notes and spoke, “Sir, right now the docks have sustained minor damage from German artillery and from bombs dropped by the USAAF in the final phases of battle. We can have the docks ready in two or three days again. The bigger problem is that many of the main roads into the city are blocked by a combination of refugees still fleeing the city and by rubble from collapsed buildings and burned out vehicles. We’ve already launched a clean up effort to get the city streets clean for the trucks to get back in but it’s going to take time to clear them sir. In addition we need more workers at the dock. Before the offensive we were able to rely on civilian dock workers to supplement our manpower, but with the exodus of refugees out of the city following the battle we just don’t have enough manpower to man the docks.

The USAAF liaison officer was next to report. “Our planes took a heavy beating during that air battle a few days ago General. Since then we haven’t seen hide or hair of the Luftwaffe. We’ve suffered losses but we’re filling gaps as fast as we can. We’re already harassing the Germans all the way back to their starting lines. Frankly sir, I think they’ll be lucky if they have any working tanks by the time they finish their retreat.

The intelligence officer spoke up. “They may not be heading back to their start lines General. Reports we’re getting indicate that a general retreat of all German troops west of the Rhine is in progress. We’ll know more in another twenty four hours.”

General Bradley considered what he had been told and then asked, “In your opinion gentlemen how much has this delayed our plans for a spring offensive?” After several moments of thought and discussion it was Montgomery who gave the answer, “General, assuming we can get the roads open again in a few days and the port of Antwerp working, assuming we can replenish our tanks and manpower reserves, I would say we are looking at a good eight to ten weeks before we will be ready to launch our spring offensive.” Patton jumped in “I make it more like eight weeks, but then I didn’t suffer the casualties Monty did.”

“All right gentlemen, thank you for your assessments,” Bradley said. “Given the refugee situation we can’t really force shell-shocked people to return to their homes and jobs in Antwerp until we know it’s safe. So, I think it’s time we allowed the German POWs we’ve captured to do a little extra work. I am ordering that German POWs captured in the battle are to be assigned to dock work in Antwerp under guard until we have enough of a civilian manpower pool to take over again.” Montgomery whistled, “The German officers are going to be screaming bloody murder that we are violating the Geneva Convention.” Patton responded “Bullc—p! They complain point out who it was who started using chemical weapons in civilian areas in the first place!” Bradley nodded, “I agree General. They have no place to argue given what their own people have done.”

“To summarize gentlemen what you are telling me is that the Germans are retreating eastward to the Rhine where they evidently intend to make a stand on its east bank. Unfortunately given the fact that our two major armies in the area are near exhaustion from stopping the German’s offensive we cannot follow up and pursue them other then to harass them by air and maybe some harassment attacks by Patton’s Third Army. Further, due to the closing of the port of Antwerp because of the attacks and the loss of civilian labor at the ports we have for at least the next week or so lost that port as effectively as if the Germans took it. We should with German POW’s ‘assisting’, be able to bring the port back up and running within a week hopefully but that still means forward troops will have to be supplied by the same ports we used in France after D-Day. That stretches our supply chain. So, given what you gentlemen have told me I do not see us being able to start the spring offensive until mid to late February at the very latest.”

“Not good news,” said Montgomery. “We’ll be dealing with spring rains and muddy roads, just like Clark is in Italy.” “Germany’s roads are somewhat better then Italy’s, thanks to Hitler’s improvement programs,” Bradley reminded Montgomery. “But you’re right we will have to factor uncertain weather into the equation especially with regard to our air power.”

“If that concludes our business then gentlemen, before you go I have something I’d like you to assist me with.” Bradley touched a button on his intercom and asked an aide to bring the items in. Moments later the aide entered with a bottle of French wine and several wine glasses. Montgomery glared for he was a committed teetotaler. Bradley spoke again as the aide filled the wine glasses, one for each person in the room. “Gentlemen we have not had the chance to properly honor the man without whose leadership we would not be in Paris right now. We have been too busy preserving what he was able by that leadership to bring us closer to, namely absolute victory. However, before you return to your duties I would like to ask you to join me in a toast to our fallen comrade and friend.” He paused and asked his aide to invite General Charles DeGaulle to join the group. The General had consulted with Bradley earlier and was asked to remain until after Bradley finished his briefing with Montgomery and Patton. Now DeGaulle entered, at first with the attitude of arrogance and offended sensibility that he had not been allowed to sit in on this meeting then softening as he saw the wine glasses and one was passed to him.

“General DeGaulle, I will brief you on the situation at the front in a few minutes but right now I would ask you sir to join us in a toast to the man without which we would not be back in Paris right now.” General DeGaulle’s features further softened and he said, “Of course General, I would be delighted to join you in that toast.” “Gentlemen,” Bradley said, standing back and looking at a photo portrait of his predecessor. “Here’s to a courageous soldier, a great leader, and a damn fine human being, to General Dwight David Eisenhower.” “To Eisenhower,” intoned the entire group, DeGaulle included. Then all drank, even Montgomery who chose to take the tiniest sip of wine as the others emptied their glasses. And may I prove to be at least half the leader you were Dwight. I miss you my friend, thought Omar Bradley as he quaffed the wine.
 
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When Antwerp is operating again they might want to think about evacuating some of the women and children on returning ships. Would help take the strain off the local supplies and enable the civilian menfolk to get back to cleaning up and working on the docks, without worrying about their families.
 
the Battle of the Ardennes ?
this sound so ...petty

OTL Historians used this therm for area the Wehrmacht reached, the Ardennes a small part of Belgium province Liege and Luxembourg
but this here is full-scale attack on Belgium, break through just to Antwerp with two battles at Waterloo and one in south Antwerp.
"Battle Of Belgium" would more accurate Historians designation.
 

Garrison

Donor
That delay is very bad news for the German civilians; it just gives the Allied airforces more time shower their homes with explosives, incendiaries and gas before they go nuclear...
 
That delay is very bad news for the German civilians; it just gives the Allied airforces more time shower their homes with explosives, incendiaries and gas before they go nuclear...

My thoughts entirely. Although if the Emperor gets his way, Japan will surrender probably by mid February.
 

Garrison

Donor
My thoughts entirely. Although if the Emperor gets his way, Japan will surrender probably by mid February.

I think that's quite likely as things are going. Of course the Japanese High Command wanted to change the direction of the war and they have succeeded; just not in the way they hoped.
 

Geon

Donor
the Battle of the Ardennes ?
this sound so ...petty

OTL Historians used this therm for area the Wehrmacht reached, the Ardennes a small part of Belgium province Liege and Luxembourg
but this here is full-scale attack on Belgium, break through just to Antwerp with two battles at Waterloo and one in south Antwerp.
"Battle Of Belgium" would more accurate Historians designation.

Your wish is granted Michel!;) See above!

Geon
 
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