How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms

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katchen

Banned
the first thermobaric weapons

We've discussed nerve gasses. Now lets look at thermobaric weapons.
n contrast to condensed explosive, where oxidation in a confined region produces a blast front from essentially a point source, a flame front accelerates to a large volume producing pressure fronts both within the mixture of fuel and oxidant and then in the surrounding air.[2] Thermobaric explosives apply the principles underlying accidental unconfined vapor cloud explosions, which include those from dispersions of flammable dusts and droplets.[3] Previously, such explosions were most often encountered in flour mills and their storage containers, and later in coal mines; but, now, most commonly in discharged oil tankers and refineries, the most recent being at Buncefield in the UK where the blast wave woke people 150 kilometres (93 mi) from its centre.[4]
A typical weapon consists of a container packed with a fuel substance, in the center of which is a small conventional-explosive "scatter charge". Fuels are chosen on the basis of the exothermicity of their oxidation, ranging from powdered metals, such as aluminium or magnesium, or organic materials, possibly with a self-contained partial oxidant. The most recent development involves the use of nanofuels.[5][6]
A thermobaric bomb's effective yield requires the most appropriate combination of a number of factors; among these are how well the fuel is dispersed, how rapidly it mixes with the surrounding atmosphere, and the initiation of the igniter and its position relative to the container of fuel. In some cases, separate charges are used to disperse and ignite the fuel.[citation needed] In other designs, stronger cases allow the fuel to be contained long enough for the fuel to heat to well above its auto-ignition temperature, so that, even its cooling during expansion from the container, results in rapid ignition once the mixture is within conventional flammability limits.[7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]
It is important to note that conventional upper and lower limits of flammability apply to such weapons. Close in, blast from the dispersal charge, compressing and heating the surrounding atmosphere, will have some influence on the lower limit. The upper limit has been demonstrated strongly to influence the ignition of fogs above pools of oil.[18] This weakness may be eliminated by designs where the fuel is preheated well above its ignition temperature, so that its cooling during its dispersion still results in a minimal ignition delay on mixing. The continual combustion of the outer layer of fuel molecules as they come into contact with the air, generates additional heat which maintains the temperature of the interior of the fireball, and thus sustains the detonation.[19

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon#cite_note-19https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon#cite_note-20A Fuel-air explosive (FAE) device consists of a container of fuel and two separate explosive charges. After the munition is dropped or fired, the first explosive charge bursts open the container at a predetermined height and disperses the fuel in a cloud that mixes with atmospheric oxygen (the size of the cloud varies with the size of the munition). The cloud of fuel flows around objects and into structures. The second charge then detonates the cloud, creating a massive blast wave. The blast wave destroys unreinforced buildings and equipment and kills and injures people. The antipersonnel effect of the blast wave is more severe in foxholes, on people with body armor, and in enclosed spaces such as caves, buildings, and bunkers.

he first experiments (led by Mario Zippermayr) were conducted in Germany during World War II. The German bombs used coal dust as fuel and were extensively tested in 1943 and 1944, but did not reach mass production before the war ended. IOTL.
Now that no holds are barred and nerve gases cannot be used in the Bulge campaign for fear of contaminating Germany's own troops as they advance, look to Germany to use these experimental fuel air explosives as much as they can against allied troop concentrations---and in the United Kingdom as vengeance for the firebombing of Hamburg. The Germans will also be shipping prototypes of these "coal-dust bombs" to the Japanese for them to copy in the Pacific Theatre.

Of course the Allies aren't far behind. After all, Vice President Henry Wallace, Iowa farmer that he is, is very familiar with what goes on in grain elevator explosions. And so is Curftis LeMay.


I
 
By Christmas 1944, most of the US troops at least (can't speak for British/Commonwealth) had thrown away their gas masks, and if they ever had suits those were long gone. However I expect there were enough around to supply those troops that did not succumb immediately. As has been pointed out, in a nerve gas environment you need not just a mask but a suit that is impervious to the gas. The Germans did not have lots of these lying around, and frankly won't be able to produce many between "now" and the start of the offensive. While masks do pretty well for mustard etc, using nerve gas in areas that German troops will be occupying/passing through will be quite problematic.

Modern doctrine limits use of gas, especially anything persistent, in areas "you" will want to occupy or pass through, and that's with troops that are well equipped and well trained which does not apply to the Heer. The best use of gas is against rear areas, depots, etc that you won't be taking or needing and the Germans don't have a system to do that - artillery won't reach most if not all of these, Luftwaffe is problematic, and V1/V2 simply not accurate enough.

Can the Germans use it - yes. Other than making more casualties (on both sides) will it make the Bulge fight any better for the Germans - no. Will the net result really really suck for Germany - very much yes.
 
The best use of gas is against rear areas, depots, etc that you won't be taking or needing and the Germans don't have a system to do that - artillery won't reach most if not all of these, Luftwaffe is problematic, and V1/V2 simply not accurate enough.

I could see the Luftwaffe trying to re-purpose Operation Bodenplatte to deliver gas to rear areas, including the airfields that were the OTL target of the attack. The problem is that bad weather postponed Bodenplatte to January 1st, so how would you get the Luftwaffe to deliver gas in the vital early days of the offensive?
 
By Christmas 1944, most of the US troops at least (can't speak for British/Commonwealth) had thrown away their gas masks, and if they ever had suits those were long gone. However I expect there were enough around to supply those troops that did not succumb immediately. As has been pointed out, in a nerve gas environment you need not just a mask but a suit that is impervious to the gas. The Germans did not have lots of these lying around, and frankly won't be able to produce many between "now" and the start of the offensive. While masks do pretty well for mustard etc, using nerve gas in areas that German troops will be occupying/passing through will be quite problematic.

Modern doctrine limits use of gas, especially anything persistent, in areas "you" will want to occupy or pass through, and that's with troops that are well equipped and well trained which does not apply to the Heer. The best use of gas is against rear areas, depots, etc that you won't be taking or needing and the Germans don't have a system to do that - artillery won't reach most if not all of these, Luftwaffe is problematic, and V1/V2 simply not accurate enough.

Can the Germans use it - yes. Other than making more casualties (on both sides) will it make the Bulge fight any better for the Germans - no. Will the net result really really suck for Germany - very much yes.

This. The end result will be suicide. The Western Allies will meet the Red Army in Berlin, even if they don't retaliate more aggressively than OTL.
 
By Christmas 1944, most of the US troops at least (can't speak for British/Commonwealth) had thrown away their gas masks, and if they ever had suits those were long gone. However I expect there were enough around to supply those troops that did not succumb immediately. As has been pointed out, in a nerve gas environment you need not just a mask but a suit that is impervious to the gas. The Germans did not have lots of these lying around, and frankly won't be able to produce many between "now" and the start of the offensive. While masks do pretty well for mustard etc, using nerve gas in areas that German troops will be occupying/passing through will be quite problematic.
Errr... sort of. Nerve gas is dangerous either as a vapour or when aerosol droplets touch the skin. I'm fairly sure that British troops will have kept their respirators with them throughout the war (and if they didn't, they were far enough away from the start of the offensive that they could probably get them back before they got hit). It also appears that the respirator designs then use were retained for some time postwar, even when nerve gases were known about - suggesting they provided acceptable protection. I don't know enough about US forces to comment, but I'd be surprised if most of them had disposed of their protective equipment.

So far as droplets go, protection is similar to that for mustard gas (which they would be familiar with - most of the very senior NCOs and many of the more senior officers would have experienced it in Flanders) except the critical droplet size is smaller. Which leads to a question - how good were the German delivery systems at atomising gas delivered by shells? If each shell only sprays droplets over a ~20m diameter, they aren't a lot more dangerous to the defence than heavy artillery - particularly with the prevailing winds blowing towards the German attack...
 
zoomar

I think its less a question of morality than a growing realisation that "this is suicide". Especially given how they know fully well that the western allies can and will retaliate with much greater devastation.

Also, how are the Germans going to hand their advance if they do spray nerve gas about generously? It might be neutered somewhat by the weather but how much of their own spearheads are they going to lose to the gas?

Steve

That's basically what I said. Wehrmacht reluctance to deploy chemical weapons would be limited only by concerns relatinbg to allied retaliation and/or the possibility of adverse effects to their own troops from possible exposure. As I said, ethics and morality would not enter in to a decision to use chemical weapons in a battlefield situation if the German army was so ordered.
 
Fuel-air bombs are an interesting wrinkle, if they can be sucessfully deployed. Unless I am wrong, air delivery would be necessary as the various fuel containers and timing mechanisms might not survive been fired from a cannon. If the OTL schedule for the offensive is followed, weather during the Ardennes operation would hinder the Luftwaffe's ability to deliver them. Unmanned missiles such as Fi 103s and V-2s maybe? Use of such missile-borne weapons against population and rear area staging centers might be more likely. If used, I don't think this would add much to the presumed allied moral revulsion. They aren't a "banned" weapon like gas. It would just be Germans being Germans with more explosive bombs. After all, all sorts of horrible incinderary weapons and massive blockbuster HE bombs were being used by the allies against German cities.
 
Question about Nerve gas. Sarin has been used in some recent terrorist attacks, right? It seems to me that these attacks were probably less deadly than the perpetrators believed they would be. Do we really know, if widespread German use of nerve agents in December 1944 would have the deadly results people are presuming?
 
Question about Nerve gas. Sarin has been used in some recent terrorist attacks, right? It seems to me that these attacks were probably less deadly than the perpetrators believed they would be. Do we really know, if widespread German use of nerve agents in December 1944 would have the deadly results people are presuming?

the problem with Sarin from terrorist attacks is simple,
that stuff was from poor quality, even so contaminated with production waste products, that it start to decomposed in hours the moment it left it's production machine...

Nothing like Germans High tech laboratory or production site, who produce high quality product, even if it‘s nerve gas
 

Geon

Donor
Dr. Phelps/Balloon Bombs/Curtis Lemay

First of all my thanks to Michel Van for his "idea," on the first name for Dr. Phelps!:D Secondly, this will be my last update until Friday, so please read and enjoy all!

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Date: November 19, 1944
Location: Los Angeles (City Hall)
Time: 6:15 a.m. [PST]

“Dr.” Anton Phelps* was busy counting his money in the basement of his rented house in north Los Angeles. The “good,” doctor went by several aliases but Anton Phelps was the one he was using here in Los Angeles. Anton was the type of person who liked to live off other people’s money. His one creed in life was the saying of that great 19th century showman, P.T. Barnum, “There’s a sucker born every minute.” Phelps considered himself simply a hard working man who took advantage of man’s natural tendencies toward gullibility.

Phelps made a living selling several natural [read quack] cures for various ailments. From arthritis to tuberculosis, if you had the ache he had the “cure.” His cures were usually no more then a few herbs and/or alcohol mixed with water and sold at “reasonable,” prices. He would peddle his wares in one town or another and then leave after two or three months before his welcome was worn out. Usually that meant being one step ahead of the local police showing up at his door.

The years before the war had been especially fruitful for him. People who could not afford doctors had been more then happy to receive his help for various health problems. In some towns he had even set up “clinics,” to see patients, proudly showing them his “medical degrees,” on the walls that he had purchased for a few dollars from a “college,” that was nothing more then a diploma mill.

However, once the war began the pickings had gotten slimmer. He had even been forced into some menial jobs here and there to make ends meet. However, arriving in Los Angeles two weeks ago following the Japanese bombing, Anton had found a city with people serendipitously ripe and ready for his kind of “help.”

Setting himself up in a rented home with a big basement had been the first step. Then he had to locate contacts in the Black Market who would be able to sell him a steady amount of codeine. He already had many of the materials and equipment he needed to produce pills from previous operations. Once he set up his basement operation he had recruited a few individuals for whom bending the law presented no problems of conscience. Ten was all he needed, five for the roadside stands and five for the “traveling pharmacies.” They would get a commission for every bottle of his “plague pills,” they sold.

The plan had worked better then he hoped. According to his meticulous bookkeeping he had already cleared $100,000 after paying off his suppliers and his “sales personnel.” If this kept up he might well clear a million by the time December rolled around.

A loud knock on the door interrupted his thoughts; two knocks followed by a pause then three knocks. That meant it was one of his “salesmen,” come to collect their first orders for the day. Anton appreciated early risers as he was one himself. Quickly going upstairs he spoke through the door, “who is it?’ “Mike,” was the reply he heard, Mike was one of his more ambitious salesmen who managed to draw record sales each time from his “traveling pharmacy.”

Phelps opened the door and was immediately greeted by four of LAPD’s finest, two in uniform and two in plainclothes all pointing their standard issue service revolvers directly at his face. His partner, Mike, looking like the proverbial little boy with his hand caught in the cookie jar was being held off to one side by one of the officers. One of the detectives said, “Dr” Anton Phelps, you are under arrest..” Dr. Phelps was out of business, permanently.


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Later in the day after “Dr.” Phelps had been booked the LACG gathered to assess the situation for the day. Overnight another 70 people had been reported with the plague and 5 more had died. Phelps actions meant many cases had gone unreported as people assumed the pills they were taking were cures. The epidemiologists in the task force were now cautiously optimistic that the results of the attack might be slowly coming down. With humane quarantine procedures and a rat extermination program in progress it was hoped the disease brought by the Japanese to Los Angeles now 2 weeks ago might be gone by year’s end.

Date: November 19, 1944
Location: Over Wyoming and Montana
Time: Morning hours

As the LACG was looking at its figures and tentatively beginning to hope that the worst was over out over the cattle ranches of Wyoming and Montana the first of the Fu-Go balloons had arrived. The special timers on each balloon began to release the contents of anthrax infected seed-corn to be spread over the ground. Many of the balloons launched would never reach their targets owing to weather or technical failure, but approximately a dozen had survived to drop their contents over the designated areas of the upper plains states. On several ranches sheep and cattle would begin to ingest the anthrax laced corn

After the contents of their gondolas were discharged the same timing devices that released the corn would trigger a “self-destruct” device in the balloon in the form of an in explosive device destroying the balloon and any evidence of its presence but some unidentifiable debris. However in at least three cases the “destruct,” mechanism failed to detonate. One of these three balloons would eventually descend into the Rocky Mountains and not be found for twenty two years. The other two would descend onto ranches in Montana where they would be found within two days.

Unfortunately the damage was already done. Within a week many of the cattle would be showing the first stages of anthrax infection.

Date: November 19, 1944
Location: Washington, D.C. (OCD)
Time: 9:00 a.m.

In Washington NATJAB gathered to look at the casualty lists. Once more the reading was grim.

Cities/ Number of Casualties/ Deaths/ Special
Los Angeles/ 2,289/ 226
St. Louis/ 105/ 63
New York/ 70/ 36
Seattle/ 15/ 10
Portland/ 10/ 8
Youngstown/ 11/ 7
Detroit / 26/ 7
San Bernadino/ 3/ 1/ contained
San Francisco/ 6/ 3/ contained
Chicago/ 2/ 1/ contained
Oakland/ 2/ 1/ contained
Atlanta / 1/ 1 contained
Total: Infected: 2,540; Total Deaths: 364

While the number of new cases was now on the decline in Los Angeles which was a good sign the number of cases in other cities infected was also still rising. Particularly worrisome was the fact that “Patient Zero,” in the Detroit area had still not been found. A task force was now in place in the Detroit area and was giving top priority to locate whoever it was. In almost half of the infected cities the disease was now considered contained in that there had been no new cases reported in at least 24 hours. Like the LACG the task force in Washington hoped the worst might soon be over. Unfortunately for them and the country it was not.

Date: November 19, 1944
Location: Airfields on Saipan.
Time: 6:00 p.m. (Saipan time)

General Curtis LeMay enjoyed a last leisurely puff of his cigar as he looked out on the line of B-29 Superfortresses being readied for take off. In twenty minutes 100 of these planes would take off for southern Japan, their target, Osaka. This first wave would be loaded with high explosives and incendiaries, but this would not be the end of the attacks. One hour after the first wave of planes took off another wave of 50 B-29’s would take off. They would arrive over the target an hour after the first one had left, long enough for people below to have emerged from their shelters, long enough for fire department personnel to respond to the fires that would have been created.

These planes had bombs which had just arrived yesterday being carried by a small fleet of C-47s. They had been carefully loaded on the 50 planes designated to carry them. One hour after the first wave dropped its load of bombs the second wave would arrive. This wave would carry not explosives but bombs loaded with mustard gas.

General LeMay would lead the second wave personally. He was doing so despite orders from above to the contrary. He knew he would be risking court martial but given the nature of this mission he was damned if he was going to let his airmen do something that he, their commander was unwilling to do. If any of them were shot down and caught by the Japanese their life expectancy would be measured in minutes most likely, if they were lucky. LeMay was determined at least for this first mission that he would set the example.

General LeMay finished his cigar and began walking toward the plane he would fly in the second raid. In one hour he would be airborne and heading for Osaka with his second wave of planes. Operation Carthage had begun.
 
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Artatochor

Banned
Did the Japanese leadership plan for the possibility of Americans retaliating? Ordering shelters built, preparing medical services for gas warfare treatment, and so on.

Another thing is, perhaps the personal participation of LeMay would not be just a random thing. Maybe he gets shot down?
 
Did the Japanese leadership plan for the possibility of Americans retaliating? Ordering shelters built, preparing medical services for gas warfare treatment, and so on.

Another thing is, perhaps the personal participation of LeMay would not be just a random thing. Maybe he gets shot down?

Lets hope.

Perhaps my caution about presuming the worst about the intentions of the US leadership in this TL was misplaced. I am quite disappointed in my nation's (alternate historical) leadership. Interesting that LeMay seems to have far fewer second thoughts about his murderous orders than Von Rundstedt. Really?
 
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