How quickly can Nazi Germany defeat The British Empire after the Fall of France?

[HexWargamer]

So GB is dumb enough to let 300 U-Boats sale out to see 24 hours before the war officially starts? Sorry I can’t see them being that dumb.

I would not be so dumb as to suggest this, and it's hard to se why you should think I did.
Just to be a bit clearer :-
OTL around 2/3rds of the available U-boats sortied before the war started (so did a number of the KM's major ships).
Hence I suggested 200 (or sometimes 150) === but if you think all 300 could sortie, well fine by me, I'll be happy to go with that.
OTL Hiter delayed the Polish invasion at the last moment by a week. The U-boats MUST have sortied BEFORE this (in other words before they knew the delay), so they have a week to 'get on station' (in fact they have a week + 3 days since the invasion was 1 Sept, British DoW 3rd Sept.)

As far as I recall the war was pretty obviously coming for a number of days before it officially started. Folks knew that Germany was getting ready to invade Poland and everyone was just waiting for it to officially happen. It wasn’t exactly a sneak attack.

Yes, but nether-the-less OTL the KM was able to sortie it's boats without being attacked ...

”Excuse me Great Briton but we are going to sale our entire war fleet of Submarines right past you this afternoon…. Yes I know this is enough Submarines to cripple your merchant fleet….Yes I know this is more subs then we used in WW1 to almost cripple you…. Yes i know your an island nation that depends on shipping to live…. But we are at peace…. Yes I did hear that you issued an ultimatum to my government…. Troops gathering near Poland? Really I never heard of it…. No no we are not getting ready for a war we are just out on a peaceful pleasure cruise.”

Yep, sounds about right ... Oh you forgot the rest of the story "We have representitives of the International Press on board every vessel who are there to observe our peacefull exercise"

Sorry but even the 1939 Government of GB is not dumb enough to be days away from a potential war with Germany and to then let the largest fgleet of Submarines in history just casually sail past…

"Mein Furher Mein Fuher It's WORKED !!! The British have started to sink our U-boats without warning !! There has been no Declaration of War !!!! the American Reporters on board are drowing by the dozen !!!"
"Mein Got, the Americans will have something to say about that - quick call off the invasion of Poland and get me the American Embassy"

OK, this is getting a bit ASB. All I'm trying to point out is that, before the war started, the Nazi's would have the opportunity to get their forces on station without having to 'run the gauntlet' ... an earlier suggestion was that the U-boats sortie every 6 months 'just to practice' ...

The guys in charge at Pearl Harbour were told (in effect) that - "If war is inevitable, we would prefer that the Japanese fire the first shot") ... would the Chamberlain Government be any different ?

 

[HexWargamer]

Submarine mines used shorter tethers, keeping them lower than surface vessel hulls while still being dangerous for submerged vessels.

So I understand. This is why I suggested the U-boats transit on the surface (before the war starts)

 

[alfredtuomi]

I would not be so dumb as to suggest this, and it's hard to se why you should think I did.
Just to be a bit clearer :-
OTL around 2/3rds of the available U-boats sortied before the war started (so did a number of the KM's major ships).
Hence I suggested 200 (or sometimes 150) === but if you think all 300 could sortie, well fine by me, I'll be happy to go with that.
OTL Hiter delayed the Polish invasion at the last moment by a week. The U-boats MUST have sortied BEFORE this (in other words before they knew the delay), so they have a week to 'get on station' (in fact they have a week + 3 days since the invasion was 1 Sept, British DoW 3rd Sept.)

Yes, but nether-the-less OTL the KM was able to sortie it's boats without being attacked ...

Yep, sounds about right ... Oh you forgot the rest of the story "We have representitives of the International Press on board every vessel who are there to observe our peacefull exercise"

"Mein Furher Mein Fuher It's WORKED !!! The British have started to sink our U-boats without warning !! There has been no Declaration of War !!!! the American Reporters on board are drowing by the dozen !!!"
"Mein Got, the Americans will have something to say about that - quick call off the invasion of Poland and get me the American Embassy"

OK, this is getting a bit ASB. All I'm trying to point out is that, before the war started, the Nazi's would have the opportunity to get their forces on station without having to 'run the gauntlet' ... an earlier suggestion was that the U-boats sortie every 6 months 'just to practice' ...

The guys in charge at Pearl Harbour were told (in effect) that - "If war is inevitable, we would prefer that the Japanese fire the first shot") ... would the Chamberlain Government be any different ?

Prefer.........O well.

 

[alfredtuomi]

 

[Garrison]

​

No worries, Britsh commercial traffic will soon clear the mines away ...

For goodness sake, you do understand that minefields are laid in patterns? That this is an issue the British dealt with throughout the war? But its symptomatic of your entire argument, the Germans can change things practically at a snap of the fingers while the poor dumb Brits just sit there and take it. You've jumped through one hoop after another, to the extent that you've ignored the OPs premise of what Germany can do after the fall of France in 1940 to a plan that makes not a lick of sense in Germany's strategic situation in 1933. You are not challenging the consensus, you are simply illustrating your lack of knowledge on the realities of the Nazi economy.

 

[Capt Thunderbolt]

The U-boats did not position themselves 'randomally' about the Atantic (tactics were based on 'picket lines' across the known shipping lanes). When one boat spotted a convoy the captain 'phoned home'. I'm assuming the location of the convoy is then 'broadcast' to the other boats (heck, a line of 50 can be spaced so close tigether that they can 'pass the message' by hydrophone, no need to phone home and give the game away). If we POD the Nazi's unable to read the British Merchant codes (so can't predict the mid atlantic routes they were taking), they could always hang around somewhere off Ireland ... (and take heavier casulties from aircraft)

"As useful as they are, acoustic underwater telephones have limited capabilities. The range on acoustic telephones is limited; the AN/BQC-1 was best used for voice comms at less than 500 yards (365 m), although its 24.26 kHz ping could reach out to ten times that distance. Acoustic waves are subject to all the same vagaries of propagation as radio waves are, with reflections off solid surfaces and diffraction by layers of differing water temperature or salinity resulting in multipath interference or even total loss of signal."

The Many Methods Of Communicating With Submarines

It sometimes seems hard to believe that we humans have managed to explore so little of what we have so much of: the seas. Oceans cover something like 70 percent of the world’s surface, but we…

hackaday.com

So with a line 50 boats, using Morse at 10 tens range of ~350m, is 3.5km, the line of 50 must be less than 200km!!!

While broadcasting at max sonor, which no sub or U-boat commander ever did in combat, is very much "giving the game away", and the position of every boat in the patrol chain.

 

[Capt Thunderbolt]

So I understand. This is why I suggested the U-boats transit on the surface (before the war starts)

Very WW1!
NOT a very good idea even with early WW2 mines.

The "K-pistol" of the Mark 6 used a copper antenna which extended upwards to just below the surface. This was connected by a relay to a copper plate on the outside of the mine. Seawater acted as the electrolyte of a battery which would be formed when a ship with a steel hull approached and touched the antenna. The current running down the antenna operated the relay and exploded the mine. This method allowed each mine to cover a wider area, meaning that fewer mines could be used to cover a given area than with the horn type. In modern terms, the "K" device exploited the Underwater Electric Potential (UEP) effect.

 

[DougM]

SOMEONE suggested they could send the entire sub fleet down the channel and GB could do nothing about it, I dont recall who said it but someone did. And i am not looking back over this increasingly rediclus thread to find out who said it. Also i did name anyone so if someone things i was talking specifically to them….. And i dont care if it is 300 or 75 GB even with Mr Peace in our time Chamberlain in charge is not. dumb enough to let that many subs sale past and out yo sea while the country is on the very edge of going to war with Germany.

As for the idea of putting internation press on the Subs…. That takes this whole topic to a new and even more reduculus level. Every time i think this topic has hit rock bottom someone starts digging..
But lets look at this idea and see the various reasons it wont work.
Fist off you need 100-300 members of the press (that ate not German or her alies) then you need 100-300 of them that are will to go on a submarine and as i have pointed out most folks TODAY wont go on a submarine and compared yo a WW-2 u-boat todays subs are the Love Boat. So good luck finding hundreds of international press will to go on a cruise on a submarine,
And dont forget reporters from any country allied or supportive of GB,France or Poland can expect to ne either arrested for treason when the war starts or to see their careers end or to be simply tared and feathered when they return home (Ask Jane Fonda how well associating with the enemy works out ). So you starting pool is a bit thin.
Then we get to the key point you need Hundreds of reporters stupid enough to get on said subs knowing full well they were acting as human shields…. Sorry but now we need hubdreds of international reporters (with most of them being at least sort of recognizable as being reasonably known reportors so we know they ARE reporters, who are from neutral countries, don’t have issues with being being on a boat that is ment to go under water in absolutely dreadfull conditions. are willing to piss of GB and her friends and are willing to put there life on the line so that Germany can get U-boats out past GB.
Now presumably this was suggested as a joke but,., it shows how far this topic has fallen.
As was pointed out on reply 1 and most if the replies thereafter, Germany is not winning this war. As has been pointed out here and in thecother sinilar topic Germany is not building and or manning 300 subs and even if they did thatcis no garentee that tgey win. Probsbly it just brings the US into the war a year and a half sooner.
So at this point i think this thread has outlived its usefull life and needs yo go the way if Hitler and most if his U-Boats, and just end. It is obvoise that most folks believe the desired result is impossible but it is equally obvious that that some folks will keep twisting and turning and tossing newer and less rational PODs out yo try and make something that is basically ASB levels of impossible happen. Dont gety me wrong i love a good argument for arguments sake but this is hoing no place fast but downhill.
May i suggest that the pro German Win folks go spend some time looking at ALL the other posts that tried to find a way to get Germany to win (or Japan for that matter) see why they didnt work out then put together a new POD that can actually happen (because 300 Subs in a few years is NOT doable that is a production rate faster the the US built Liberty ships when you consider that suns are more complicated to build) and then in a few weeks or months (there is a lot of these Germany wins topics to read through on this forum) come back here and we can have a nice fun argument about why this new POD wont work.
Heck who knows maybe you can find the one in a billion ways to force GB to give up. Not likely but…. who knows.

Meanwhile i wonder if Germany forces GB to give up (while being supported By her alies and the Us) is turning into another version if the unnamable sea mamal. Because i am beginning to think the easiest war for Germany to win is to find a way to make the Sea Mamal work.. And we know how likely that is…

 

[Cymry-Korean]

SOMEONE suggested they could send the entire sub fleet down the channel and GB could do nothing about it, I dont recall who said it but someone did. And i am not looking back over this increasingly rediclus thread to find out who said it. Also i did name anyone so if someone things i was talking specifically to them….. And i dont care if it is 300 or 75 GB even with Mr Peace in our time Chamberlain in charge is not. dumb enough to let that many subs sale past and out yo sea while the country is on the very edge of going to war with Germany.

As for the idea of putting internation press on the Subs…. That takes this whole topic to a new and even more reduculus level. Every time i think this topic has hit rock bottom someone starts digging..
But lets look at this idea and see the various reasons it wont work.
Fist off you need 100-300 members of the press (that ate not German or her alies) then you need 100-300 of them that are will to go on a submarine and as i have pointed out most folks TODAY wont go on a submarine and compared yo a WW-2 u-boat todays subs are the Love Boat. So good luck finding hundreds of international press will to go on a cruise on a submarine,
And dont forget reporters from any country allied or supportive of GB,France or Poland can expect to ne either arrested for treason when the war starts or to see their careers end or to be simply tared and feathered when they return home (Ask Jane Fonda how well associating with the enemy works out ). So you starting pool is a bit thin.
Then we get to the key point you need Hundreds of reporters stupid enough to get on said subs knowing full well they were acting as human shields…. Sorry but now we need hubdreds of international reporters (with most of them being at least sort of recognizable as being reasonably known reportors so we know they ARE reporters, who are from neutral countries, don’t have issues with being being on a boat that is ment to go under water in absolutely dreadfull conditions. are willing to piss of GB and her friends and are willing to put there life on the line so that Germany can get U-boats out past GB.
Now presumably this was suggested as a joke but,., it shows how far this topic has fallen.
As was pointed out on reply 1 and most if the replies thereafter, Germany is not winning this war. As has been pointed out here and in thecother sinilar topic Germany is not building and or manning 300 subs and even if they did thatcis no garentee that tgey win. Probsbly it just brings the US into the war a year and a half sooner.
So at this point i think this thread has outlived its usefull life and needs yo go the way if Hitler and most if his U-Boats, and just end. It is obvoise that most folks believe the desired result is impossible but it is equally obvious that that some folks will keep twisting and turning and tossing newer and less rational PODs out yo try and make something that is basically ASB levels of impossible happen. Dont gety me wrong i love a good argument for arguments sake but this is hoing no place fast but downhill.
May i suggest that the pro German Win folks go spend some time looking at ALL the other posts that tried to find a way to get Germany to win (or Japan for that matter) see why they didnt work out then put together a new POD that can actually happen (because 300 Subs in a few years is NOT doable that is a production rate faster the the US built Liberty ships when you consider that suns are more complicated to build) and then in a few weeks or months (there is a lot of these Germany wins topics to read through on this forum) come back here and we can have a nice fun argument about why this new POD wont work.
Heck who knows maybe you can find the one in a billion ways to force GB to give up. Not likely but…. who knows.

Meanwhile i wonder if Germany forces GB to give up (while being supported By her alies and the Us) is turning into another version if the unnamable sea mamal. Because i am beginning to think the easiest war for Germany to win is to find a way to make the Sea Mamal work.. And we know how likely that is…

What gets me is that proponents of a 300 German subforce or other pro German wacky ideas, never answer the question of why are the allies never allowed to respond in kind.

Also, why do these changes never effect Germany elsewhere? The Battle of France was a close run thing, adding so many submarines (or fighters, or rockets) never seems to affect the performance of the Wehrmacht in any other area.

 

[Post]

What gets me is that proponents of a 300 German subforce or other pro German wacky ideas, never answer the question of why are the allies never allowed to respond in kind.

Because in that case the Battle of the Atlantic will go roughly the same as OTL, which won't help with Germany winning the war.

Also, why do these changes never effect Germany elsewhere? The Battle of France was a close run thing, adding so many submarines (or fighters, or rockets) never seems to affect the performance of the Wehrmacht in any other area.

Because if it does, it will be harder for the Germans to win the battle of France (or, the horror, even prevent them winning it), which won't help Germany winning the war.

 

[Post]

So I understand. This is why I suggested the U-boats transit on the surface (before the war starts)

They usually did for most of their trip anyway.

 

[pjmidd]

They usually did for most of their trip anyway.

A submerged submarine cannot enter another nations controlled waters ( note controlled not territorial ) and forfeits the presumption of innocence. So trying to go down the English Channel submerged and they will be "accidentally" sunk ( the accident being they were only supposed to be forced to surface but the depth charges went off too close, honest )

 

[jamesownz]

What proportion of these (unescorted) bombers would they lose? How do they make up the lost aircraft and aircrew?
What would 500 tonnes of bombs per week burn London?

The article said they would lose pretty much the entire air force... But Britain would make some sort of peace

 

[Garrison]

The article said they would lose pretty much the entire air force... But Britain would make some sort of peace

500 tonnes(metric per week, lets say over 3 months/13 weeks means 6,500 tonnes. A single Lancaster carried 6,400 kg which means a modest raid in 1943/44 with 100 planes drops 640 tonnes in one night. Sustain that over three months and you get 58,240 tonnes. And bear in mind that in reality the RAF and USAAF managed much larger raids over extended periods and still that wasn't enough to knock Germany out of the war. Your source is I'm afraid just plain wrong.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

The article said they would lose pretty much the entire air force... But Britain would make some sort of peace

I can only assume the author dropped a zero or two off the weight of bombs dropped per week.

Or he assumed that nerve gases would be used.

Otherwise, it's just not plausible.

ps destroying the German bomber force would not go unnoticed by Stalin. Early Operation Bagration before Germany recovers?

 

[Garrison]

A submerged submarine cannot enter another nations controlled waters ( note controlled not territorial ) and forfeits the presumption of innocence. So trying to go down the English Channel submerged and they will be "accidentally" sunk ( the accident being they were only supposed to be forced to surface but the depth charges went off too close, honest )

Also nearest port the U-boats could start out from is Wilhelmshaven and just to reach a point off Dover is about 400nm. At 10 knots that's about 1.7 days(according to the maritime calculator I looked up). So at a fuel guzzling max of 17.7 knots on the surface a Type VII would require about 24 hours to do the same thing. Submerged at 7.6 knots that's going to be 2.25 days and bear in mind this is simply to reach the point where RN ships in Dover could start throwing stones at them and hit them. I am not allowing for the additional travel through British waters to reach the Atlantic, the fact 300 U-Boats couldn't all be pass through simultaneously, probably can't all start from the same port, or Oxygen or battery life, or fuel consumption.

Chamberlain will have plenty of time to issue an ultimatum and launch a response.

 

[Catsmate]

The article said they would lose pretty much the entire air force... But Britain would make some sort of peace

Why?
They're smart enough to know that Germany really can't do that much. The German army is impotent if it can't be landed in Britain. The RN (and USN) will prevent a blockade working. The Luftwaffe can burn cites (to a small extent, they're a tactical force and lack the aircraft and doctrine for strategic bombing) but that's about it.
The risk is a collapse of morale, and that's not really likely without a major British defeat; the last prospect of that was Dynamo.
Meanwhile the UK has a strategic bomber force and doctrine, access to US resources and production capacity plus Imperial manpower, and can raid and engage in peripheral locations.

 

[Catsmate]

I can only assume the author dropped a zero or two off the weight of bombs dropped per week.

Or he assumed that nerve gases would be used.

Otherwise, it's just not plausible.

ps destroying the German bomber force would not go unnoticed by Stalin. Early Operation Bagration before Germany recovers?

In 1941 Germany didn't have useful stockpiles of nerve agents; even the pilot Tabun plant at Raubkammer wasn't operational until mid-1942. There were at most a couple of hundred kilos available.

 

[Dupplin Muir]

Just a few points.

Firstly, submarines were very expensive to build - indeed, possibly the most expensive warships of all, on a ton-for-ton basis. The British could build 8-10 corvettes - or 4-5 frigates - for the price of one U-boat, so a relatively small increase in the RN's budget would produce a large increase in the number of escorts.

Secondly, the Battle of the Atlantic was an example of asymmetric warfare. A bad convoy operation for the British would involve the loss of a lot of merchant ships - but the escorts would emerge more experienced and efficient than they were when they went in. However, a bad convoy operation for the Germans would mean the loss of a lot of U-boats, which would need to be replaced with less-experienced captains and crews. Thus the U-boat force was a wasting asset in a way that the escorts were not. It might be suggested that the Germans could target the escorts, but when they tried this later in the war with the introduction of the Zaunkonig they still lost more submarines than they sank escorts, though if necessary the British could afford to swap escorts for U-boats on a 1:1 basis and still come out well ahead, especially since most escort crews would be rescued while few submariners would survive, and those few would be prisoners.

Thirdly, when the British analysed the convoy battles they found that the number of merchantmen lost was proportional to the number of U-boats attacking, but the ratio of U-boat losses to merchant-ship losses was proportional to the square of the number of escorts. This is why the average size of convoys was increased as the war went on. As an example, let's assume that the British start with convoys of 40 freighters with 5 escorts. Further, assume that the Germans sink 100 merchantmen for the loss of 10 submarines. Now if the British go to 80-ship convoys with 10 escorts, the Germans still sink 100 ships - but they lose 40 U-boats in the process.

 

[Issei Uzumaki]

What it says in the title.

IF Nazi Germany concentrates its military efforts on the UK and Empire, how quickly can it force the UK to seek a peace deal?

The following qualifications apply

1) The US supports the UK as OTL, with Lend-Lease and other aid.

2) There is no Operation Barbarossa but the Germans need to maintain a large army and air force to deter Soviet attacks.
(Say 100 Divisions and 1,500-2,000 aircraft initially, and that force may need to grow as the Red Army grows stronger)

3) Assume no Japanese attack on the Southern Resource Area OR that such intensifies US support for GB even without a DOW by it on Germany and Japan.

Didn't read all the other responses but I think the only way I could see this would take a few years and require Italy not screwing around in the Balkans. The steps would be instead of going after Crete, the Nazis and Italians go after Malta. It was a tough nut but it could be cracked. During this time, do limited bombing raids targeting the Radar stations and southern ports of the UK to keep them busy, while scrapping any surface ship construction immediately after declaring war and focusing only on submarines to target the British merchant fleet.

After taking Malta, Germans and Italians would begin stocking piling resources and focusing on constructing a rail line from Italian territories east as they are conquered, leaving Italian troops to hold the land and continue building the lines while the Germans push east with a much larger force than OTL, if not a fully mechanized army group. The key is the logistics which OTL simply couldn't hold but if you could take Malta, even without taking Gibraltar or Crete, you could get a much more secure (not completely secure but far better than OTL) path to ship supplies and men from mainland to North Africa. If they put the same effort into a military buildup in North Africa as they did for Barbarossa, they could overwhelm the UK forces there and push through to Alexandria and the Suez. If the Axis take the Suez the Allies HAVE to evacuate the eastern Med as they would not be able to defend and supply them if they lost the canal.

Again, it boils down to logistics. It's not impossible as some make it out to be in terms of "is it possible" as in, could it be done with planning? The problem is the mindset of both leaders and "would " they come to an agreement on such a thing. That to me is key; Hitler convincing Mussolini to help with Malta and then with working together in North Africa. It's easy to say the UK could simply pull resources from their empire, but if you cut off one of the key things (oil!) which in OTL , the UK used mid-east oil to fuel the Med area of operations while oil from the US/Mexico/Venezuela went to the British Isles. If force the UK out of Egypt and then take them out in the mid-east it becomes that much harder. Not impossible mind you but much harder fuel their war effort and with a bigger focus on U-boats attacking the merchant fleet.

Now if they did that, then maybe you get a negotiated peace. Nazis would most likely even offer to remove themselves from France, though it would be defanged militarily and the UK would most likely lost Malta permanently to Italy and have to return Italian East Africa but they would be allowed to keep all other colonies with exception of Iraq and such who become puppet states feeding the nazis with oil, mostly likely passing through neutral Turkey. You likely knock them out before Japan attacks the US in this new TL. So the Nazis would simply focus on the Soviets once they had rebuilt their military. That's really the only way I see them forcing a peace, you know, other than Churchill dying or Halifax taking over the PM role right from the start or couple Halifax with a failed Dunkirk evac. Just shows how important logistics are, what could Rommel have done with a real army group and good logistics in North Africa?