How probable is OTL

[reformer]

Often times people comment on possible ATLs that its simply implausable. So, taking this into account, and seeing that some possibilities are much more likely than others, how plausible is OTL? This would suggest an interested challange as well, take a year, say 1860, and istead of going OTL, take the single most probable action in every given situation.

Just something to think about.

 

[Hermanubis]

I’m not sure, but I think this may have been talked about before…(the implausibility of such “Great Men” as Alexander, Caesar, Napoleon, ext)

 

[Zor]

I’m not sure, but I think this may have been talked about before…(the implausibility of such “Great Men” as Alexander, Caesar, Napoleon, ext)

Alexander and Caeser were sucsessful mostly due to the fact that they had the best armies at the time. Alexander's Phalanx was just plain superior to the single line formations used by everyone else and Roman Legionaries were well trained flexable soldiers that could easily whup the disorgenised barbarians that they went against. Napoleon was sucsessful because he knew the value of winning quickly and that he wanted to destroy all other governments insted of forcing them to give up so and so peace of land.

Zor

 

[Othniel]

Alexander and Caeser were sucsessful mostly due to the fact that they had the best armies at the time. Alexander's Phalanx was just plain superior to the single line formations used by everyone else and Roman Legionaries were well trained flexable soldiers that could easily whup the disorgenised barbarians that they went against. Napoleon was sucsessful because he knew the value of winning quickly and that he wanted to destroy all other governments insted of forcing them to give up so and so peace of land.

Zor

Yes but how likely was it that they'd come to power? How likely would it be that they had the ability to control these. What if Ceaser had been tramatized as a little kid? What if Alexzander caught pnumonia? How likely is it for any of them to reach twenty? There have been plenty of one man countries in History (Basically propsering for one lifetime.) But what is the likeyhood of any of these coming into being? Rome's rise is a very unlikely event for one, as is the prosperity of the US. In fact many events are relying on other events, there are so many varables that probillity becomes almost immpossible to detrime. Once an event is set in motion it becomes easier, but say someone else had devolped a technique or method of warfare?

An idea, what is the likelyhood of Ben Franklin living to help for the signing of the Declaration of Indepdance? He had gout at the time and it was wearing him thin. If he had retired or died would those very documents be different?

 

[Chrispi]

As probable as any other OTLs.

 

[Forum Lurker]

Here are some of the things that strike me as highly unbelievable to someone from another TL:

Hitler survived an improbable number of assassination attempts and other almost-fatal experiences.

Israel not only won its war of independence, but greatly increased its territory in the winning, despite overwhelming numerical and equipment disparities.

The Cold War never saw the launch of a single nuclear weapon, nor the release of any biological agents, against either of the superpowers, despite massive armament stockpiles and extreme paranoia on both sides.

Any of the Great Men (and the occasional Great Women), from Alexander to Hitler.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Some Other Ideas...

_In science, Schwartzchild's Radius, the distance whereby a body falls into a "point of no return" in a black hole, was discovered by an artilery officer in the Belgian Army...

-The coelecanth and the mountain gorilla were thought to be "mythological creatures" until their capture and exhibition in the early part ofthe twentieth century...

-Einstein's Theory of Relativity, was calculated by a patent-clerk in Geneva, Switzerland who worked on the calculations during his lunch break...

In politics:

-Charles De Gaulle was the target of over 42 assassination attempts between his rise to power in 1940 until his retirement from government in 1968...

-Stalin, one of the leading members of the Russian Revolution , was a religious seminary student for the Russian Orthodox Church with poor academic skills...

-President Bill Clinton suffered over 9 assassination attempts, including those during his initial candidacy in 1992, until the end of his term in office in 2000...

 

[Hierophant]

I think that in some cases people are thrown into situations. Their abilities determine how well they fair in them, as well as luck (stray bullets and disease).