How much longer would USA stay neutral if Japan had no declared war on USA?

How much longer would USA stay neutral if Japan had no declared war on USA and bombed Pearl Harbor and instead focused on seizing UK and it's allies Pacific colonies hoping to delay american entry,meaning Hitler does not declare war on USA?
 
How much longer would USA stay neutral if Japan had no declared war on USA and bombed Pearl Harbor and instead focused on seizing UK and it's allies Pacific colonies hoping to delay american entry,meaning Hitler does not declare war on USA?
It was a do or die for the Japs, the fact that the US will enter as the Japanese will surely attack them,
 
I have wondered at that myself. I know the conventional wisdom is war is inevitable...but I do question that. If Japan showed a degree of restraint and went after only the Dutch Indies and other non-US terroritories...and kept up a drumbeat of "we are fighting Europeans...not Americans" and didn't respond to any provocation.... President Roosevelt is faced with a much harder task. He was handed a real political gift with the attack on Pearl Harbor....hard evidence that the Japanese government intended to do the US harm. Without that...he has to convince a more isolationist US population that war with a country almost on the opposite side of the world is something that needs to happen.
 
I have wondered at that myself. I know the conventional wisdom is war is inevitable...but I do question that. If Japan showed a degree of restraint and went after only the Dutch Indies and other non-US terroritories...and kept up a drumbeat of "we are fighting Europeans...not Americans" and didn't respond to any provocation.... President Roosevelt is faced with a much harder task.
The US was already handing some pretty severe ultimatums to Japan along with some crippling embargoes. An invasion of the Dutch East Indies or Malaya would result in the Pacific Fleet being deployed to the region along with an ultimatum to withdraw immediately. If Japan still refuses, Roosevelt will push for a declaration of war while the Navy will do everything possible to goad the Japanese into firing the first shot. When war finally comes, the Japanese fleet will be sunk in a matter of days and the US will be within spitting distance of Japan. The simple fact is that if Japan was ever going to end up at war with the US, waiting would have been a horrible idea.

American isolationism before the war is often exaggerated. The federal government was ready for war and that was enough.
 
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How would it affect Germany/Japan having a neutral USA for at least 6 more months that OTL?

Theres no way Japan is successfully invading the Philippines with the US fully mobilized and prepared to go to war on their own terms.

Germany loses out on “the Second Happy Time”.
 
I've wondered this myself. In WW1 it took the sinking of some merchant ships and an ill advised message to Mexico to get the USA to declare war on Germany in 1917, albeit not the near (should have been) unanimous vote of 12/8/1941.

By Pearl Harbor German U-boats had already fired on the destroyer Greer, torpedoed the Kearny and sunk the Rueben James. FDR had said to shoot the U-boats on sight. Basically its an undeclared war between the US and German navies. I imagine another American ship or two sunk and FDR goes before Congress to ask for a DOW on Germany.

If this happens before Pearl Harbor, what do the Japanese do?
 
It was a do or die for the Japs, the fact that the US will enter as the Japanese will surely attack them,

How 'bout we don't use racist slang, yeah?

To answer the question, Imperial Japan didn't have much choice once the U.S. cut off oil and imports of scrap metal. They would soon have literally no oil left, not just for war, but for any industry, power, etc...

I expect if they do not attack the U.S. on 12/07/41 as they did historically, it will be at most another six months before their fears become reality, and the United States intervenes, but on their terms, and more thoroughly mobilized and ready.
 
Theres no way Japan is successfully invading the Philippines with the US fully mobilized and prepared to go to war on their own terms.
American strategists considered the Philippines indefensible against Japan. War Plan ORANGE assumed that Japan would conquer the Philippines long before the US could intervene in the western Pacific.
 
American strategists considered the Philippines indefensible against Japan. War Plan ORANGE assumed that Japan would conquer the Philippines long before the US could intervene in the western Pacific.

In a war begun on Japan’s terms, that’s very true. In a war where the US has the initiative and months of preparation work, it’s not.
 
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American strategists considered the Philippines indefensible against Japan. War Plan ORANGE assumed that Japan would conquer the Philippines long before the US could intervene in the western Pacific.
Orange also failed to realize the effect that naval aviation would have on naval warfare and the effect of carriers. Japan attacks the Dutch Islands that will bring the British into the war as Dutch Allies in the Pacific. Further, alert the US that Japan is not playing nicely and the US will deploy in a manner that isn't just lining up naval ships in Pearl Harbor for an attack there.
Once things get rolling in the Pacific Hilter is just going to say "screw it" as in OTL and DOW on the US. War gets delayed 6 months but maybe not depending on how much extra the US gets to mobilize before entry. Not losing 18 warships, 188 aircraft and 2,403 servicemen from Pearl Harbor helps a little as well for the US.
 
If Japan goes for British and Dutch colonies in Southeast Asia, that would encircle the Philippines of which the United States would see as a threat. The U.S. may start reinforcing the Philippines but that would take precious time due to the distance separating the archipelago from Hawaii or San Diego. One thing I could see is that an American civilian or military ship or two may be sunk by the Japanese in the Pacific or the Germans in the Atlantic. Probably a repeat of the Lusitania occurs so what would happened is a delayed American entry.
 
American strategists considered the Philippines indefensible against Japan. War Plan ORANGE assumed that Japan would conquer the Philippines long before the US could intervene in the western Pacific.

WPO was made before the Two-Ocean Navy Act. Even 6 months later the PI would be a much harder nut to crack. It still might fall but it is going to be a hell of a lot bloodier for the Japanese.
 

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I expect if they do not attack the U.S. on 12/07/41 as they did historically, it will be at most another six months before their fears become reality, and the United States intervenes, but on their terms, and more thoroughly mobilized and ready.

If US participation in overt war against Japan is pushed 6 months to 05/07/42, how much more mobilized is the United States, compared with both a) OTL 12/7/41, and OTL 05/07/42? How much of a trans-Pacific fleet train capability is built that can break through to relieve the Philippines by 05/07/42, compared with the (zilch) existing in 12/7/41, and (not much more) existing in 5/7/42? How much of limited US Army and Army Air Corps global assets and fleet assets will have been committed to the Philippine islands and Asiatic fleet compared with both the position of 12/7/41, and competing missions on 5/7/42 like Atlantic convoy protection, protection of the Western Hemisphere neutrality zone, training up the enlarging Army, and protecting the vital Alaska-Hawaii-Panama triangle in the eastern Pacific? How much can the the Philippine Commonwealth Armed Forces mobilize and arm up in the 6 months from 12/7/41 to 5/7/42?
Will MacArthur remain in place, and will plans improve or at least be made un-ruinable by bad command execution due to materiel plenty by May 7, 1942?

Some of the biggest potential advantages for Philippine defense come from the ability more time provides to mobilize local resources and to insert in more resources from the outside.

However, over the same 6 months, the Japanese are also gaining some resources in terms of combat experience, capture of Thailand, Malaya, DEI (& oilfields), Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands, possibly Burma, defeat of local British, Commonwealth, and Dutch forces defending those locales, and the ability all these newly captured positions including air and naval bases provide to launch multi-axis attacks anywhere along the 360 degree circumference of the PI.

If, on reflection, you think US-Japanese peace can only hold out only 4 more months instead, to March 7, 1942, OK, adjust all those values and answers accordingly.

How long does the war's start really need to be delayed in months---or years, for the US to be able to declare war, confident it can hold out and relieve its furthest outposts without sacrificing whole major units, major provinces, and major battles, take the offensive initiative and hold it until the end?
 
In a war begun on Japan’s terms, that’s very true. In a war where the US has the initiative and months of preparation work, it’s not.
OK, June 1942.
FDR gets his DoW on Japan.

Now what?
Bomb Taiwan with the few B-17E that had come off the production lines since last September? Move the BBs to Cavite?

Zerg rush into New Guinea?
 
How much longer would USA stay neutral if Japan had no declared war on USA and bombed Pearl Harbor and instead focused on seizing UK and it's allies Pacific colonies hoping to delay american entry,meaning Hitler does not declare war on USA?
Kick-off was mid-March 1942. Early results with the US clown-club (Stark, Kimmel et al); still in charge would have been "unacceptable" for the USN PACFLT. I see no real difference except that "maybe" Mister Corncob Pipe does a little better in the Philippine Islands and Brereton gets left behind along with Wainwright in the smashup as MacArthur bugs out. That could have good butterfly effects in Europe (For example Market Garden does not have Brereton present to goof it up.). Japanese go through their fuel stocks faster and eastern India has more pressure on it early in the Pacific War. But geography and logistics rather dictates the shape of the Pacific War follows a recognizable facsimile of our RTL and Japan is bulldozerkrieged by 1945. So no measurable change, except maybe more Silver Plate Specials due to a longer war?
 
Pretty much it screws Japan (as war is declared because of a "gulf of tonkin" sort of incident) and helps Germany, which avoids Torch until 1943. Start bombing delayed 6 months. D-Day can actually fail in 1944. Might succeed, but the possibility of failure actually exists. Germany probably loses the war when a-bombs start dropping.
 
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