How long would the Tokugawa Shogunate last if...

[HelloLegend]

The Perry Fleet was sunk in a Typhoon on the way to Japan.

 

[Matt]

The Americans have already negotiated for the use of Nagaski in 1849, after the conclusion of the discussion it was recommended to the Congress that the US open up Japan. If Perry doesn't make it, either on of the other ships in the flottilla well, or a later follow up one well.

 

[M79]

Russia also contemplated missions doing the same and the lord of Satsuma was beginning to trade with Europe on the sly. Eventually there would be some sort of civil war or other nation trying to puppet Japan, likely the Russians, English, Americans, or French IMO.

 

[Wendell]

But the Russians getting there first could have a major impact on the history of Hokkaido.

 

[M79]

They did get to Hokkaido first, they just didn't stick around.

 

[Wendell]

They did get to Hokkaido first, they just didn't stick around.

In this timeline, they could stick around.

 

[M79]

Have the Japanese colonize Sakhalin and the Kurils early, cause a border skirmish and maybe an invasion. Or have the Russians strongarm Hokkaido from Japan and kick-start the Meiji Revolution.

 

[Wendell]

Have the Japanese colonize Sakhalin and the Kurils early, cause a border skirmish and maybe an invasion. Or have the Russians strongarm Hokkaido from Japan and kick-start the Meiji Revolution.

Well, if it is Russia that opens Japan ITTL, they may focus more on that region.

 

[M79]

Hmmm...No trans-Siberian railway could make life tough for Russia if Japan gets powerful down the road...

 

[DuQuense]

In the early 1800's Japan and Russia were fighting over Sakhalin Island like England/France Fought over the Ohio Valley in the 1700's, It was Japans rising power in the 1890's that forced Russia to accept a Co dominion over the island.

A Japan that has a delayed Awaking will probably lose the whole island in the 1880's, and maybe the Kuriles as well. This will help pull Russia towards the East.

Russia has had a split between it's east and it's western faces, A Russia that moves into the East more aggressively in the 1890's, may have the Eastern Face win out.

Russia as a Asian Power, instead of a European Power.

 

[Michael B]

Russia as a Asian Power, instead of a European Power.

With Germany next door and a Pan Slav movement, not likely. What is more likely is both. If Russia has seen off Japan, the next target is China. Here, not just Port Arthur is occupied, but the whole of Korea. The next target would be Manchuria.

 

[Archdevil]

The Russians could decide to support the Republic of Ezo and thus gain control over the Hokkaido and the islands north of it.

 

[Tizoc]

The Russians could decide to support the Republic of Ezo and thus gain control over the Hokkaido and the islands north of it.

We're talking here about TL with longer rule of Tokugawas - so no Ezo Republic here...