How long would the Ottomans survive?
- Thread starter Onyx
- Start date
Wolfpaw
Banned
I agree that there would most likely be some sort of Arab insurrectionist movement (probably focused in Arabia) but I'm not so sure they'd be able to dismantle the empire. One mustn't forget that much of the success of early Arab nationalism is owed to the British, who not only armed the Arabs, but also directly invaded the Ottoman Empire, fundamentally weakening it. And if the Turks stay out of the Great War, there are big consequences.
The British may very well try to prop the Ottoman state up as a regional counterbalance to Russia (the Anglo-Russian friendship was predominantly Euro-centric, not global).
So the question is, without the British and Lawrence mucking about in the Near and Middle East, do the Arabs ever get strong (or angry) enough to boot out the Ottomans?
Hashasheen
Banned
I personally doubt this, and I'm Arab. While there were hints of Nationalism among the Arab tribes in Hejaz and the elites from Damascus and the societies, Arabs as a whole were very Ottoman-ish after centuries under their rule. They assimiliated us pretty good.
Zimmerwald1915
Banned
If the PoD is in the 1860s, there are numerous possibilities for Ottoman survival. The Italo-Ottoman War could go better for the Ottomans (resulting in a white peace or at least not the loss of the Dodecanese in the settlement), which butterflies away the first Balkan War, which leaves the Ottomans a strengthened position in Europe and internally. Even if the Balkan Wars happen and go relatively historical or better for the Balkan powers, the Ottomans aren't just going to collapse. Historically, it took being invaded on four fronts (Gallipoli, which failed; Caucasus, which advanced fairly far, stalemated, and then failed after the Russian Revolution; Palestine, which largely succeeded but didn't make it to Syria; and Mesopotamia, which again was moderately successful) and the fermentation of revolts by an outside power to create the OTL postwar situation. Without a big war that the Ottomans get involved in (silly move there IOTL, if you ask me, what they needed was more time to consolidate, not to get dragged into war on behalf of an ally which couldn't really do much for them) they'll last a good long while.
you're correct; it's often forgotten in the West that the Ottoman Empire was a Muslim Empire, not a Turkish one. If the Ottomans don't enter World War I and can hold together until the 1920s or 30s when oil is discovered, then they'll hang on for a very, very long time.
I have to agree with the first part. Although some national identities had emerged in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, these didn't always conflict with allegiance to the Sublime Porte. Countries like Egypt, with its semi-independent status, did develop a distinct identity.
You say the Ottomans assimilated the Arabs pretty well-well they could have done a better job. They failed to impart the Turkish language beyond the the elite in each dominion (good for the Arabs I guess). The Ottomans failed to develop and imprint a distinct national identity on any of its subjects. To this day I cannot figure out what the ancestors of present-day Jordanians/Lebanese/Syrians considered themselves to be. Had they done so-and not sided with the Central Powers in WWI-it's not improbable to say that the Turkish Republic now would stretch from the Sudan to Tripoli to Baghdad. I say Turkish Republic because the Ottoman system was outdated and far from sustainable. It was inevitable that it would collapse. The point is-had the Arabs been better assimilated-they would have remained in union with the Turks.
I Blame Communism
Banned
Why are they unlikely to conduct land reform, ever? I bet people would have though Britain would be the last place to have a socialist government back in the late 19th C.
Ottoman Government and administrative apparatus was composed by a lot of nobility and landowners, it's is unlikely that they would forsake their own properity.
But than who knows, after the First War, due fear of socialist revolution, Romania made a radical land reform giving 90 percent of land to peasants, the Ottoman Government might do something simillar.
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As said above, if the Turks win against Italy it greatly helps the situation... but perhaps in the years leading up to WW1 the youth rise up more so than in OTL and overthrow the government, the west in fear of the Russians meddling help the Ottomans put a constitutional monarchy in place. However WW1 still slips into place and the Ottomans although more friendly now because of France and Britains help still deny them access, so Britain like OTL attacks but does not implement helping the Arabs in an uprising but instead makes a fatal flaw in attacking and slaughtering them. The Ottoman Republic jumps up and down on this, its not only an evil attack on the empire of muslims... but all muslims. This would help unite the Ottoman Republic, defining them in the transition from empire to republic and is greatly remembered to this day in their history. When word gets to Eqypt and Sudan of the atrocities against muslims they rise up against the British ( not massively but there is unrest and some armed conflict ), this allows the Turkish to push forward onto British ground and after the war they come under the Ottoman Republics sphere of influence. This effectively means the Ottomans win against Britain, re-uniting the Republic, in the treaty Britain withdraws from Egypt, Sudan, Yemen and Oman. Also a fair little deal of reparations are to be payed but not an overwhelming amount, this is put to good use in fortifying the caucauses against the rising Soviet Union.
Anyway thats just my interpretation of how the Ottoman Republic could be born.
Anyway thats just my interpretation of how the Ottoman Republic could be born.
I'd be surprised if the successor state of the Ottoman Empire would be the Ottoman Republic. My guess is that it would still be the Turkish Republic. The Ottoman way of doing things needed to be updated. I doubt the Ottomans would have lasted much longer. I see a pan-regional secular system that could incorporate the various ethnicities, cultures and religions under one umbrella. Would be interesting if each dominion would be afforded relative autonomy (as was the case anyway) or if a heavily centralized structure would be imposed.
Zimmerwald1915
Banned
Considering that the epithet "Ottoman" referred to the House of Osman, any Republic established in hitherto Ottoman territory would in all likelihood drop it. Complicating things is the fact that the Ottoman Sultan was also the Caliph (well, he claimed to be such anyway).
Keenir
Banned
yes, bad show, them giving rights to Jews and Christians - it'll never work.
it was? since when?
and it never collapsed IOTL - it was torn apart.
Onyx
Banned
Eh, the way it lost in many wars, uh look I'm not an Ottoman-Wank, and I don't study the history as much as I did on Russia and the CSA.....
So can anybody explain to me why it would last for a very long time?
ANd what would the boundaries be by 2000-ish
wormyguy
Banned
That's because they tried to get the Turks to speak Arabic, not the other way around.
They would have considered themselves to be Syrians.
I know... what else was I going to explain it as though in my post, the point of my post was explaining how the Republic could survive not what name out of a million it would have. And it wouldn't be called the Turkish Republic if it still encompassed its Empire. How about the Federation of the Levant for the shits and giggles
I know... what else was I going to explain it as though in my post, the point of my post was explaining how the Republic could survive not what name out of a million it would have. And it wouldn't be called the Turkish Republic if it still encompassed its Empire. How about the Federation of the Levant for the shits and giggles
For the shit and giggles ? Why not "Federation of Rome" ?