Lets say the Soviets lose the Russian Civil War, and garner enough opponents from the Russian populace and the anti-communist forces unite to defeat the Soviets. How different would world war two be compared to OTL?
how different would world war two be if the Soviets lost the Russian Civil war?
- Thread starter Creightonw
- Start date
mial42
Gone Fishin'
This is such a colossal butterfly (and of course, needs a how. The White forces were not homogenous, well-organized, or strongly supported by the populace, so them winning is unlikely, and what the Whites winning would look like is incredibly unclear) that the twentieth century will be unrecognizable... so no WW2 or a completely and utterly different WW2 are both entirely possible, and it's impossible to really say much about how a very different alt-WW2 would look.
if the Reds lose the Russian civil war, the civil war just continues when the shaky alliance that was the White Army turns against itself. Best case scenario you've got chaotic disfunction.
Hopefully the lack of the USSR butterflies the Nazis because otherwise invading Russia and claiming their natural resources becomes much more likely.
Hopefully the lack of the USSR butterflies the Nazis because otherwise invading Russia and claiming their natural resources becomes much more likely.
If the Nazi still take power it would just be them stomping out one warlord after another.
Hell no URSS can butterfly away Benny, as the fear of a socialist revolution was a big part of the king, industrialist and land owner supporting him
The first is true but the second isn't. The RCW lasted quite a while, which it wouldn't have if everyone just flocked to Lenin. The problem with the Whites is that they were very disunified consisting of both those who wanted to reinstate a monarchy and socialists who disagreed with Lenin.
No chance Nazis come to power with the Bolsheviks losing the civil war. The Nazis actually coming to power was a very unlikely event caused by a lot of convenient coincidences, with the number 1 reason it came to power was through anti Marxism, so if you remove the communist threat they never come to power. Next to WW1 imo the bolsheviks coming to power was the most significant event of the 20th century, so without it I’d be borderline impossible to predict if there would be a Second World War or what it would look like.
As others have said:
1) Unlikely for the Nazis to come to power
2) If the Nazi's come to power, if a strong White Russia emerges, it will find it easier to ally with the UK and France during the interwar years than the USSR did IOTL, or may even act against Nazi Germany on its own accord, butterflying away WWII.
1) Unlikely for the Nazis to come to power
2) If the Nazi's come to power, if a strong White Russia emerges, it will find it easier to ally with the UK and France during the interwar years than the USSR did IOTL, or may even act against Nazi Germany on its own accord, butterflying away WWII.
kham_coc
Banned
Nazis in particular yes, some sort of right wing revisionist government still seems likely.
Unless the UK, France and the US give up on the small independent states that's formed out of Russia, Russia is going to be just as revisionist as Germany. Given the debts (they wont be paying anything more than the soviets) and other considerations (such as being the ones who had to actually fight Germany as they were concerned) I supremely doubt they would be interested in trying to contain Germany (With Panslavism deader than a Bolshevik what would their friction be?) . This Russia would want to re-occupy the Baltic and the eastern parts of Poland as well as the lands in the Caucasus.
I think it's way more likely that Germany and Russia does the fourth partition pretty much OTL,
It would fundamentally change the 20th century beyond recognition. There probably would be no WW2.
If Benny won't come to power, then he and some right-wing German government(most likely a revised Kaiserreich on the Japanese model) would jointly come to power after the Great Depression, since both Italian and Weimar democracies were particularly fragile and instable, marked by numerous elections and governments succeding one other, the democratic elites would still be blamed for The Great Depression and the Communist parties would still be viewed as a threat without the SU(think of the 1830s Liberals), although I can bet Austria and the Sudethenland are off the table, no militarist Kaiserreich wants to deal with Austrian Catholics, but puppet-states is not off the table.
White Russia by this time would probably still be a Japanese-style Monarchy, with Denikin, Kolchak or other military pseudo-Fascist dude as the actual leader, so a Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between the conservatives monarchies of Germany, Italy and Russia would still be formed to crush Poland(The Baltics would probably remain Russian) and the events would most likely be parallel, Germany conquer pacifist France, is held back by Britain in the Middle East and either invades Russia or gets back-stabbed by Russia and this WWII would most likely end in 1946 or 1947 with a Cold War between the Eastern Conservative Bloc and Western Democratic-Liberal Bloc.
White Russia by this time would probably still be a Japanese-style Monarchy, with Denikin, Kolchak or other military pseudo-Fascist dude as the actual leader, so a Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between the conservatives monarchies of Germany, Italy and Russia would still be formed to crush Poland(The Baltics would probably remain Russian) and the events would most likely be parallel, Germany conquer pacifist France, is held back by Britain in the Middle East and either invades Russia or gets back-stabbed by Russia and this WWII would most likely end in 1946 or 1947 with a Cold War between the Eastern Conservative Bloc and Western Democratic-Liberal Bloc.
Depends who wins instead.
The possibilities range from some other sort of totalitarian state (be it fascistic or another flavour of socialism) to open warlordism to some sort of vaguely democratic loose federation.
Now an idea that's always amused me is the Green's winning, realizing that they have no way at all to wage an industrial war for any period of time, and just ripping out all the roads and rail in the western regions of the country so as to create a super rail gap between the enemy and wherever they actually intend to fight.
The possibilities range from some other sort of totalitarian state (be it fascistic or another flavour of socialism) to open warlordism to some sort of vaguely democratic loose federation.
Now an idea that's always amused me is the Green's winning, realizing that they have no way at all to wage an industrial war for any period of time, and just ripping out all the roads and rail in the western regions of the country so as to create a super rail gap between the enemy and wherever they actually intend to fight.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
No but Germans with an interest in territorial revision have a shot. Germany was never fully occupied and is not locked down by strong neighbors in this situation, so it has room to maneuver. Germans can look back on WWI and think "we lost, but in 1914 and 1918 we came 'this close', and we actually beat Russia- we can do it right next time".
How easy will UK and France find it to balance commitments between White Russia and Poland who probably have a strong mutual loathing for each other?
Although some sort of revanchists are likely to come to power in Germany it is almost certainly not the Nazis. Their seizure of power was the result of long chain of unlikely events that are unlikely to repeat under other circumstances. Whoever does take over is almost certainly better as it is hard to imagine anyone worse. Whoever comes to power is also likely to be less reckless as Hitler pretty much defined the word "reckless". What they get is hard to say. My guess is they might pick up Austria and perhaps the Polish Corridor but not Sudetenland .