How can we prevent the Philippines from becoming an American colony, and what is the impact?

Puzzle

Donor
Taking Subic Bay and calling it a day doesn’t seem too improbable. The main value of the Philippines past power projection ultimately lay in not letting anyone else have them.
 
Can't see Japan occupying it. I can see them getting very interested. You don't have to invade to dominate a place/ Who has the resources and the interest to compete with the Japanese? Would the Americans prefer to focus on mainland China?
 

bguy

Donor
It would involve a pre-1900 POD but what if the US gets into a war with Spain over Cuba earlier than 1898? Maybe Lewis Cass wins the 1848 presidential election and tries to seize Cuba to balance out the admission of California into the Union or perhaps the Virginius Affair escalates out of control. I doubt the US would have the international reach to strike at Spain in the Philippines in an earlier Spanish-American War, and once Cuba is pried from Spain's grasp there is unlikely to be any further conflict between the US and Spain where the US could seize the Phillippines.
 
Japan moves in sooner.
The Germans wanted to buy the Philippines and AIUI the Spanish Government was willing to sell but the Spanish-American War meant that all they bought were the Spanish Pacific islands less Guam. Japan occupied them in World War One and they became a Japanese League of Nations mandated territory after the war.

Perhaps the Spanish can accept the German offer before the Spanish-American war happens. Then the Japanese occupy the Philippines (and Guam) in World War One and they become Japanese League of Nations mandated territories after the war.
 
Can't see Japan occupying it. I can see them getting very interested. You don't have to invade to dominate a place/ Who has the resources and the interest to compete with the Japanese? Would the Americans prefer to focus on mainland China?
The Americans wanted a waystation to China, at least the imperialist faction did.
The Germans wanted to buy the Philippines and AIUI the Spanish Government was willing to sell but the Spanish-American War meant that all they bought were the Spanish Pacific islands less Guam. Japan occupied them in World War One and they became a Japanese League of Nations mandated territory after the war.
USS Maine blew up and Butcher Weyler screwed up.
Perhaps the Spanish can accept the German offer before the Spanish-American war happens. Then the Japanese occupy the Philippines (and Guam) in World War One and they become Japanese League of Nations mandated territories after the war.
The Americans were bidding, too. The Spanish should have taken the offer. More money and "less" European problems and one less enemy to torque off. (France).
 
The Germans wanted to buy the Philippines and AIUI the Spanish Government was willing to sell but the Spanish-American War meant that all they bought were the Spanish Pacific islands less Guam. Japan occupied them in World War One and they became a Japanese League of Nations mandated territory after the war.

Perhaps the Spanish can accept the German offer before the Spanish-American war happens. Then the Japanese occupy the Philippines (and Guam) in World War One and they become Japanese League of Nations mandated territories after the war.
do you think the germans would accept the offer even though there is a revolution going on and France and Britain would allow that aggressive move?
 
here is my thoughts on what could set this up:

Perhaps no annexation of Hawaii would set a precedent?

- No Spanish-American War.
Perhaps a different President could ensure this? In this case Cuba would successfully declare independence on its own a bit later as Spain still had turmoil in the early 20th century, not sure about Puerto Rico
- Spanish-American War still happens, but focus is on the Caribbean and not on the Pacific
- Spanish-American War happens, but America sets up a puppet state in the Philippines like it did in Cuba instead of colonizing
- American defeat in Filipino-American War
IMO the least likely outcome of these.

Outcomes:

- America isoaltes, focuses on domestic policies.
- American military remains smaller
The USS Maine does not self immolate in Havana - as I understand it the most obvious cause of her destruction was a coal bunker fire setting off the 6" ammo in an adjacent magazine and almost certainly not the actions of the Spanish detonating a mine etc

Coal bunker fires were almost impossible to put out during this period other than removing all the coal and so what generally happened was that the fires were allowed to burn with that bunker being used first to fuel the ships boilers.

Many early coal fired ships were now thought to have been lost in this way

No "Remember the Maine" - no Spanish American war (possibly?) and therefore no US Philippines
 
You would have to find a way to ovoid the Spanish American War. At some point the Philippine Patriots would force the Spanish to accept terms, or sell the Islands to Germany. Ether way the Germans are going to invade the Islands, and crush them. After that the Japanese will invade the Islands in 1914, or 15, after capturing the German territories in China, and the Central Pacific. Things would be looking very ugly for the Filipino's, being occupied by the United States was the best of some very bad options.
 
I am pretty sure that the Filipinos will object to the idea of American occupation being the best idea when around ~1 million Filipinos died as a result........
 
sell the Islands to Germany. Ether way the Germans are going to invade the Islands, and crush them.
I dont think the Germans would get them as Spain would be pressured by France Britain and Russia not to do it, they are gonna try to persuade to instead sell to them. That will likely result at a crisis on who really gets the Philippines, which in the end they will probably decide to recognize it and try to use dollar diplomacy to get the Philippines at their side. Which will result to the Philippines playing both sides to their advantage, to secure independence and develop and industrialize the country.

And is germany willing to spend 300M dollars to get the Philippines as resistance is very stiff when the Americans went in there? The 300m is the estimated value at that time on how the war cost when the USA invaded the islands? Remember there is a revolution going on
 
Do you think the Germans would accept the offer even though there is a revolution going on and France and Britain would allow that aggressive move?

I dont think the Germans would get them as Spain would be pressured by France Britain and Russia not to do it, they are gonna try to persuade to instead sell to them. That will likely result at a crisis on who really gets the Philippines, which in the end they will probably decide to recognize it and try to use dollar diplomacy to get the Philippines at their side. Which will result to the Philippines playing both sides to their advantage, to secure independence and develop and industrialize the country.

And is Germany willing to spend 300M dollars to get the Philippines as resistance is very stiff when the Americans went in there? The 300m is the estimated value at that time on how the war cost when the USA invaded the islands? Remember there is a revolution going on
Firstly, my understanding is that it was the Germans who were offering to buy rather than the Spanish were offering to sell.

And as far as I can tell.. Yes they would have gone through with the purchase even though there was a revolution going on because it was only the outbreak of the Spanish-American War that prevented it from happening. When I was looking through the internet for sources I got the impression that the American and German Asiatic Squadrons were effectively running a race to Manilla Bay which the Americans won along with the subsequent battle with the Spanish Pacific Squadron. If I'm right the result would have been a peaceful transfer of power from Spain to Germany had the Kaisermarine got their first. I know that the Germans would have had to fight a war against the Filipinos after taking control from the Spanish, but so did the Americans IOTL.

I think that I first read about German plans to buy The Philippines from Spain in Dreadnought by Raymond K. Massie and if I have remembered correctly the Kaiser was furious when the Americans beat them to it.

I'm not sure that the British and French Governments would do anything. The Fashoda Incident was happening at about the same time and I think that both powers would be preoccupied by that. If anything they'd be offering the Germans a free hand over the Philippines as part of their offers to keep Germany neutral or become an ally should the incident precipitate a war between Great Britain and France.

Furthermore, it's about a year before the British start the Second Anglo-Boer War which AIUI united Continental Europe against the British Empire. Therefore, the British would be too busy fighting the Boers and the French would be too busy condemning the British for invading the Boer Republics. The German purchase of the Philippines would have been legal in the eyes of the other Great Powers (though the Filipinos would have felt differently) and the British invasion of the O.F.S. and Transvaal was an act of unprovoked aggression.
 
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I'm not sure that the British and French Governments would do anything. The Fashoda Incident was happening at about the same time and I think that both powers would be preoccupied by that. If anything they'd be offering the Germans a free hand over the Philippines as part of their offers to keep Germany neutral or become an ally should the incident precipitate a war between Great Britain and France.
I dont believe they would do that because the one who controls the Philippines controls the gateway to SEA through pacific vice versa. And once the news of this planned purchase reached france and UK, well theyre gonna join too to prevent germany from doing that
 
I dont think the Germans would get them as Spain would be pressured by France Britain and Russia not to do it, they are gonna try to persuade to instead sell to them. That will likely result at a crisis on who really gets the Philippines, which in the end they will probably decide to recognize it and try to use dollar diplomacy to get the Philippines at their side. Which will result to the Philippines playing both sides to their advantage, to secure independence and develop and industrialize the country.

And is germany willing to spend 300M dollars to get the Philippines as resistance is very stiff when the Americans went in there? The 300m is the estimated value at that time on how the war cost when the USA invaded the islands? Remember there is a revolution going on
I don't really think that would happen. France, and Britain had no interest in taking the Philippines. Britain had passed on it several time before, they were more interested in advancing their interests in South China. The French had their hands full in Indochina, and France had no influence over Germany. The Russians were busy moving into Northern China, and had their eyes on Korea. The Germans, and Americans were the only ones looking to pick something up. Yes the Germans would've been happy to pay $300 Million in a brutal colonial war. It was a different mind set before WWI.

No major power would consider the Filipinos as anything more then a backward people to be dominated by White Men. This was the age of the White Mans Burden, again it's a different mind set, no one was going to industrialize the Philippines. Japan was the only power to pull that off, and that was because they started earlier, and were already an established nation, under central control. Japan was also more isolated geographically, then the Philippines.
 
I am pretty sure that the Filipinos will object to the idea of American occupation being the best idea when around ~1 million Filipinos died as a result........
What he wrote was...
Things would be looking very ugly for the Filipino's, being occupied by the United States was the best of some very bad options.
The distinction between the best idea around and the best of very bad options is crucial to what @Belisarius II was writing. However, if I was Filipino I wouldn't interpret it that way either.
 
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I don't believe they would do that because the one who controls the Philippines controls the gateway to SEA through pacific vice versa. And once the news of this planned purchase reached france and UK, well they're gonna join too to prevent Germany from doing that
I do because of the reasons I have already given and because of what @Belisarius II wrote in Post 33.
 
I don't really think that would happen. France, and Britain had no interest in taking the Philippines. Britain had passed on it several time before, they were more interested in advancing their interests in South China. The French had their hands full in Indochina, and France had no influence over Germany. The Russians were busy moving into Northern China, and had their eyes on Korea. The Germans, and Americans were the only ones looking to pick something up. Yes the Germans would've been happy to pay $300 Million in a brutal colonial war. It was a different mind set before WWI.

No major power would consider the Filipinos as anything more then a backward people to be dominated by White Men. This was the age of the White Mans Burden, again it's a different mind set, no one was going to industrialize the Philippines. Japan was the only power to pull that off, and that was because they started earlier, and were already an established nation, under central control. Japan was also more isolated geographically, then the Philippines.
Britain is actually conserned about what if germany gets the PHilippines or any other nation except them gets the PHilippines. I doubt that would happen, and if They cant get the Philippines and everyone wants them well theyre just gonna leave them alone and just use dollar diplomacy to try get them on their side
 
I dont believe they would do that because the one who controls the Philippines controls the gateway to SEA through pacific vice versa. And once the news of this planned purchase reached france and UK, well theyre gonna join too to prevent germany from doing that
The Philippines is only the gateway to SEA if your coming from the East. That means it's most useful to the Americans. Britain never considered the Spanish to be a threat from the Philippines. Later, after the start of the Naval Arms Race Britain armed Japan to take care of Germany's Asiatic Fleet, which they did very effectively in 1914.
 
If it's recognize by America, well the GPs will back of as they want USA on their side. I assume the Philippines never became american and became an American sphere instead which will have major consequences as America try to secure their grip in the PI European countries like Germany Britain who has interests with the islands will try to assert influence by any kind of aid like investments
 
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