How can Portugal become relevant after the loss of Brazil?

[ToasterOven456]

TBH, by the 1840s/1850s the traditional English alliance hadn't so much helped as hamstrung Portugal's development (see the Revolt of the Marshals, backed by Britain because she felt the Portuguese government was becoming too anti-English). And given how Britain later sold Portugal down the river without a second thought, I would say Portugal would be better leaving what was like a bad relationship. Especially when it saw how Britain and France were both keeping a boot on Spain's throat in the same period

No alliance would be best, or alliances with native nations

 

[Godot]

Not to get all geographically determinist but Portugal lacked the resources to be a noteworthy power after they had a headstart in the age of exploration.

It wasn't horribly powerful even when it held Brazil and was essentially second rate after the Iberian Union.

African colonies wouldn't do anything to actually strengthen Portugal, since they were all pretty unprofitable and ultimately unpopular. The Pink Map wouldn't do anything but maybe save the monarchy and just make the aforementioned unprofitable colonies contiguous (which, in the long run, would just make fighting for independence easier).

Portugal has lacked the resources, large population, and favorable geography to become any kind of industrial power, and past 1815 it's industry which really counts. Colonies were just empty prestige and window dressing. The metropole is what counts.

 

[galik]

Yeah the portuguese always had an odd interest for the concept of submarines
I mean what other country had people wanting to rescue Napoleon from St Helena with one?

Well I need to find sources thats quite an interesting concept.

 

[galik]

I forgot where but I read that while colonialism was unprofitable for the government, it is a way of subsidizing the private sector with captive markets & cheap resources.

Yes but, in regards to Africa, you need a mature industry (pharmaceutical and military included). If you look at the British market of most of the 19th century, that was inevitably influenced by the political/economical paradigm, it was pro free market since it's concept was in having a good diplomatic stance with South American governments, since the region had a commodity based exportation system already in place. That area was already civilized and with an economic system developed from colonialism, so a market that imports industrial goods and exports raw materials to make such goods.
Africa at that time was a malarial region with a mix of centralized civilized kingdoms with large armies, quite hard to conquer and expensive to maintain, and decentralizedtribal chiefdoms that were highly militaristic. Only after you are able to exert hegemony over the continent and establish a colonial population that is able to administer such territories you are able to pitch the exploration of goods to a venture group whiling to take the risk. Most of the profitability of Africa only came after WWI for this reasons.
Of course some regions made early profits (like Congo and Egypt) but those had less disadvantages than the combination referenced prior (Egypt was civilized and non malarial with a cotton potential explored and Congo is the major exception since it had shareholders that make part of a "philanthropic" association that did such "good deeds" for the native population, and wasn't even owned by the government of Belgium). The example more known to me is Mozambique, it was divided in monopolistic companies and failed, being those nationalized.

 

[unprincipled peter]

TBH, by the 1840s/1850s the traditional English alliance hadn't so much helped as hamstrung Portugal's development (see the Revolt of the Marshals, backed by Britain because she felt the Portuguese government was becoming too anti-English). And given how Britain later sold Portugal down the river without a second thought, I would say Portugal would be better leaving what was like a bad relationship. Especially when it saw how Britain and France were both keeping a boot on Spain's throat in the same period

agree, but....

while Britain was a lousy ally, it would be even worse if Portugal tried to break free. Portugal has no real alternative for a partner who would actually be on her side. Meanwhile, Britain would be free to harass Portugal's interests. A case of damned if you do, damned if you don't.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

partner who would actually be on her side.

Spain, France, Germany, Italy (Austria?) not options?

 

[ToasterOven456]

Spain, France, Germany, Italy (Austria?) not options?

All of them except Italy will try to take advantage of them. Italy being weak doesn’t help. Personally I would just keep the alliance, as it would be worst without it. If this Portugal has a larger navy it could help mitigate the British influence a bit overseas

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

What about a mutual alliance with Holland? No awkwardness of being a major and minor partner there? Under Willem II its a "fellow liberal regime" and his second son, Alexander,was considered for a match with Isabel II of Spain OTL, plus Prince Hendrik's future wife (Amalia of Weimar) is goddaughter to Maria II

 

[unprincipled peter]

Spain, France, Germany, Italy (Austria?) not options?

France and Germany maybe.
Until Germany becomes a powerhouse, though (mid-late 1800s), they aren't much help.
If France still has a navy, maybe.

The problem is that Britain rules the seas, and can threaten the colonies at any time.
And, Portugal doesn't have much to offer in return.

I think Portugal could find itself some allies if it became stronger and/or played a smart diplomatic game. Until the scramble for Africa, Britain was the primary threat to Portuguese world interests. IF Portugal grew stealthily, and somehow diplomatically kept Britain at bay until, surprise, Portugal is relevant again, Portugal might make out better in the Scramble.

There's about 60 years between losing Brazil and losing in the Scramble. Portugal wasted a lot of those years in civil wars and recovery. All that energy needs to be channeled into infrastructure and development of Africa, so that when the Scramble occurs, Portugal can be at least on the periphery of the big boy table and can prevent the massive encroachment. OTL, they were simply pushed aside by all.

 

[ToasterOven456]

What about a mutual alliance with Holland? No awkwardness of being a major and minor partner there? Under Willem II its a "fellow liberal regime" and his second son, Alexander,was considered for a match with Isabel II of Spain OTL, plus Prince Hendrik's future wife (Amalia of Weimar) is goddaughter to Maria II

An alliance between those two would be good to preserve the Dutch Gold Coast and Portuguese Flores, but really it doesn’t do much. If Portugal kept a liberal regime under Pedro V, it would lead to more industry being developed in Portugal, as well as education, but that’s already 2 butterflies

 

[ToasterOven456]

France and Germany maybe.
Until Germany becomes a powerhouse, though (mid-late 1800s), they aren't much help.
If France still has a navy, maybe.

The problem is that Britain rules the seas, and can threaten the colonies at any time.
And, Portugal doesn't have much to offer in return.

I think Portugal could find itself some allies if it became stronger and/or played a smart diplomatic game. Until the scramble for Africa, Britain was the primary threat to Portuguese world interests. IF Portugal grew stealthily, and somehow diplomatically kept Britain at bay until, surprise, Portugal is relevant again, Portugal might make out better in the Scramble.

There's about 60 years between losing Brazil and losing in the Scramble. Portugal wasted a lot of those years in civil wars and recovery. All that energy needs to be channeled into infrastructure and development of Africa, so that when the Scramble occurs, Portugal can be at least on the periphery of the big boy table and can prevent the massive encroachment. OTL, they were simply pushed aside by all.

Considering that the navy was Miguelist aligned, I think if Don Pedro gave up Portugal to Miguel, it would’ve made their colonial efforts massively boosted. I don’t think a conservative regime would exactly be hated, so potential it could survive. Downside of this is Portugal is an absolute monarchy (which is basically OTL) that still has church and state together

 

[ToasterOven456]

I have a suggestion, what about a series of liberal (actually liberal) kings and queens in Portugal throughout the 1800’s? It could start with Pedro IV living a bit longer and establishing a constitutional monarchy

Edit: If the navy remained with the liberals that would’ve been even better, as well as the India runs and explorations of the African hinterland continuing

 

[Janprimus]

Portugal doing a Netherlands and becoming a major mercantile and commercial power would be great.

The problem is that this would require a near-complete transformation of Portugal.

By the point Portugal lost Brazil, the Netherlands was far from their once glory too. The old Dutch Republic already was in decline, when the French backed Patriots came in and created the Batavian Republic, then it became the Napoleonic kingdom of Holland and eventually even full French annexation.
By 1815 the Dutch economy was in ruins and the Belgian revolt deprived it from a lot of own essential resources for industrialisation.
Yes, the Netherlands had the Dutch East Indies, Surinam, the Dutch West Indies (Antilles) and for a while some outpost like one in Ghana.
Still many was lost like the Cape Colony, Ceylon, combined with a weak economy and the loss of Belgium also reduced it as a Power on the European stage.
In short, during this period both Portugal and the Netherlands were both struggling with relevance. So no, during this period the Netherlands is not an example.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I have a suggestion, what about a series of liberal (actually liberal) kings and queens in Portugal throughout the 1800’s? It could start with Pedro IV living a bit longer and establishing a constitutional monarchy

Edit: If the navy remained with the liberals that would’ve been even better, as well as the India runs and explorations of the African hinterland continuing

Thing with Pedro I is that he wasn't nearly as liberal as everyone thinks, and Miguel was far from as conservative. Pedro was a liberal in the same sense as Napoléon, if he hadn't died, he'd have been kicked out of Portugal too is what I can make out. Considering that a large portion of the navy - FWIR - were on Miguel's side, and that was why the liberals distrusted them, I don't see either this glorious constitutional monarchy happening or the navy going over to Pedro's side

 

[psteinx]

Portugal is a small nation with a small population at the far end of Europe. I don't think its land is even all that fertile. It punched WAY above its weight for a long time. Extending Portuguese "greatness" much beyond the loss of Brazil seems far fetched.