Harsher Prague Peace?

[victoria944]

Sorry - i thought we were talking of an Austrian collapse.

 

[wolf_brother]

More realistically Russia seizes Galicia, Prussia annexes all of Saxony, Hungary becomes independent (including Croatia), Italy gets Tyrol, and the rest is folded into a Greater Germany. There's no way Bohemia is not going to be in Germany in 1866-67, not with the current POD, and Louis-Napoléon wasn't looking for territorial gains (and certainly not in Dalmatia of all places); France gets international prestige and confirmation of her status as a great power and the political force on the continent.

 

[Bartholome de Fonte]

More realistically Russia seizes Galicia, Prussia annexes all of Saxony, Hungary becomes independent (including Croatia), Italy gets Tyrol, and the rest is folded into a Greater Germany. There's no way Bohemia is not going to be in Germany in 1866-67, not with the current POD, and Louis-Napoléon wasn't looking for territorial gains (and certainly not in Dalmatia of all places); France gets international prestige and confirmation of her status as a great power and the political force on the continent.

That is still quiet ASB, again, this could only have the faintest chance of happening if all of the Austrian Empire was occupied. And as was stated already, France would have joined the fray well before then.

 

[wolf_brother]

That is still quiet ASB, again, this could only have the faintest chance of happening if all of the Austrian Empire was occupied. And as was stated already, France would have joined the fray well before then.

And what exactly about it is ASB? Do you have a point of contention to raise or are you just going to sling that term around without offering any constructive commentary?

 

[Bartholome de Fonte]

My constructive commentary has so far been that the Austrians need to suffer their own Deluge before such utterly harsh terms could even be considered. Going from there, you can work out some actual terms. However, the French wouldn't just sit by while Prussia continues to om nom nom the Austrian Empire (implied, the TL could see it become a standstill before the Austrians start to lose more).

So in other words, have Prussia destroy France *and* Austria, then you can have some harsh terms. However, I don't think it would even be on the scale that you and victoria944 have proposed, as the obligatory British intervention would happen.

Ultimately though this conflict would likely do wonders for Nationalism across Europe.

 

[victoria944]

Excuse my ignorance but
what does ASB mean.

 

[Bartholome de Fonte]

Alien Space Bat, it's invoked when a situation or POD could not happen. Thus, ASBs make it possible.

Remember, this is not a game of HOI or the likes, you can't just devour another nation (a Great power, at that) simply because you want to.

 

[Eurofed]

A worse Austrian defeat, leading to a military collapse and a harsher Peace of Prague is most likely going to start an event chain that causes the political collapse and partition of the Habsburg empire. However it is in all likelihood going to happen in a few years since the war (say within a decade) rather than immediately during the conflict. In 1866, conditions are not yet fully conductive: Germany has not formed yet, the serious obstacle of France has not been removed yet, and Prussia-Italy could not or would not afford a two-front war.

Picture this broad event sequence:

1866: Prussian victory at Sadowa, Italian victory at Custoza. Emboldened Prussia and Italy make maximum demands (all Irredentist claims for Italy; Saxony and Bohemia-Moravia for Prussia). Napoleon III makes pro-Austrian diplomatic pressures (backed by threat of military intervention), Prussia and Italy, unwilling to face a two-front war, accept a compromise. The Peace of Prague awards Prussia OTL gains, Saxony, Austrian Silesia, and northern-eastern Sudetenland, and gives Italy Veneto, Trento, and Gorizia-Gradisca. Prussia and Italy are satisfied with the outcome of the war, pissed off with France, and reaffirm their alliance. The peace allows Austria to avoid immediate political collapse, but the humiliation destabilizes the Empire. Prussia creates the North German Federation.

1867-70: growing tensions between Prussia-Italy and France lead to war, out of various possible issues (Luxemburg, Rome, the Spanish Succession) where compromise proves impossible. The Italo-Prussian alliance wins a decisive victory. Destabilization of Austria deepens: Austrian Germans experience a massive upsurge of Pan-German feelings (heightened by the Franco-Prussian/Italian War), the Hungarians make bold demans that make the Ausgleich compromise insufficient or impossible, the Czechs, Croats, and the remaining Italians get restive, too.

1871-74: The German Empire is created. defeated France is forced to make peace: the treaty of Frankfurt cedes Alsace-Lorraine to Germany; Nice, Savoy, and Corsica to Italy. France recognizes Tunisia in the Italian sphere of influence and pays heavy reparations. Further cessions of French colonies to Germany-Italy are possible. Internal tensions in the Austrian Empire reach the tipping point: the Hungarians secede, there is a Pan-German uprising in German Austria. The neighbor great powers organize the partition of the Habsburg lands: Germany gets German Austria, South Tyrol, Czechia, and Slovenia; Italy gets istria and Dalmatia; Russia gets Galicia and Bukovina; independent Hungary keeps the Lands of St. Stephen and a confederal union with Croatia-Slavonia.

 

[Bartholome de Fonte]

Much better.

Shame the Habsburgs tend to get the short end of the stick in TLs.

 

[Eurofed]

Shame the Habsburgs tend to get the short end of the stick in TLs.

It's just rightful retribution for their shameful failure to unify Germany and Italy from 1486 to 1848.

 

[victoria944]

Maybe Bismarck or somebody else has been carrying out secret negotiations with Hungarian representatives, to encourage them to rise up
in event of war.

Why does France lose so much to Italy, didn't think Italy had such large terretorial aspirations against france.

If were looking for peace in Europe, why not just give Italy Tunisia.

Maybe Pan slav nationalism and Austrias dire peril, makes Austrian Germans want to be part of a united Germany.

I think Russia has to take Galicia, it cant remain part of Austria in this scenario. or it will just be hanging round, looking embarressed, cos nobody wants it .

What about Czech nationalism, this is difficult, complicates the fate of Bohemia Moravia.

I dont like Germany/Prussia annexing Alsace -Lorraine, i'm with Bismarck, peace without annexations.

I do like the idea that Bismarck lures France into siezing Belgium in 1866, this then acting as a stumbling block to an Anglo-French alliance after 1871. Going with Bismarck convincing Kaiser not to annexe A-L, and France keeps Belgium, maybe gives the Flemish part to the Netherlands.

Just letting my mind run.

Throw in Bismarck gaining his way regarding colonies, no Tirpitz naval expansion, Anglo-German naval treaty, maybe the way is paved for some some of increased economic cooperation.

 

[Bartholome de Fonte]

It's just rightful retribution for their shameful failure to unify Germany and Italy from 1486 to 1848.

One day the Habsburgs shall create mighty Germany-Italy, one day.

Maybe Bismarck or somebody else has been carrying out secret negotiations with Hungarian representatives, to encourage them to rise up
in event of war.

The Hungarians would have to be *seething* with discontent for that to happen. Far from impossible, but it would likely require a POD before the Bruderkrieg for it.

Why does France lose so much to Italy, didn't think Italy had such large terretorial aspirations against france.

If were looking for peace in Europe, why not just give Italy Tunisia.

Considering Savoy and Nice were apart of the Kingdom of Sardinia till 1860 when they were given to France in return for aid against the Austrians, why wouldn't they want the land back? As for Corsica, it was a target of Italian Nationalists at least later on, I cannot say whether they wanted it during this era but I would not be surprised if they considered it Italian land.

 

[wolf_brother]

Eurofed, what makes you believe that there will still be a Franco-Prussian War or its analogue ITTL? If the POD is Bismark being over-ruled by Wilhelm due to a weaker Austria, why would Bismark be in a position of power to create the Ems Dispatch five years later? It seems highly unlikely that ATL history would parallel ours so well after such a massive POD and immediate effects; the butterflies alone could and likely would remove even the potential for a Franco-Prussian conflict in the late 1860s/early 1870s.

 

[Bartholome de Fonte]

Eurofed, what makes you believe that there will still be a Franco-Prussian War or its analogue ITTL? If the POD is Bismark being over-ruled by Wilhelm due to a weaker Austria, why would Bismark be in a position of power to create the Ems Dispatch five years later? It seems highly unlikely that ATL history would parallel ours so well after such a massive POD and immediate effects; the butterflies alone could and likely would remove even the potential for a Franco-Prussian conflict in the late 1860s/early 1870s.

This is all implying that the Ems Dispatch caused the Franco-Prussian war, which did not. The French wanted to crush the Prussian upstarts, and that was the excuse. ITTL, the French would likely just have that feeling increased quiet a bit, so I think that Franco-Prussian war would still happen.

 

[wolf_brother]

This is all implying that the Ems Dispatch caused the Franco-Prussian war, which did not. The French wanted to crush the Prussian upstarts, and that was the excuse. ITTL, the French would likely just have that feeling increased quiet a bit, so I think that Franco-Prussian war would still happen.

Um, what?

The Ems Dispatch very much so did cause the Franco-Prussian War, and anything else is historical white-washing, or ignorance of the situation. As has been discussed multiple times on these boards.

As well the idea that something five years down the line from the POD would happen the same way it did IOTL for the same reasons is absolutely absurd, and flies in the face of 'alternate' history.

 

[Bartholome de Fonte]

Um, what?

The Ems Dispatch very much so did cause the Franco-Prussian War, and anything else is historical white-washing, or ignorance of the situation. As has been discussed multiple times on these boards.

As well the idea that something five years down the line from the POD would happen the same way it did IOTL for the same reasons is absolutely absurd, and flies in the face of 'alternate' history.

Curses, I was wrong. I wonder what the hell I was thinking about.

Bah, I'm obviously too rusty on this era in France.

The main thing is, what would the general reaction to the Habsburg Empire falling apart be? If not a Franco-Prussian war, some finger waging?

 

[wolf_brother]

Curses, I was wrong. I wonder what the hell I was thinking about.

Bah, I'm obviously too rusty on this era in France.

The main thing is, what would the general reaction to the Habsburg Empire falling apart be? If not a Franco-Prussian war, some finger waging?

From France? Louis-Napoléon will look to rebuild his ties to Italy; after all it was the French who essentially gave the Italians their independence from the Hapsburg Austrians during the Campagne d'Italie. French recognition of Italian influence in Tunisia isn't out of the question, though 1860s-1870s would seem to be a bit premature for this, but the idea of the French handing over Corsica to the Italians, or further that the Italians deserved the island, isn't something that's going to be accepted under any regime in Paris. Most likely you're going to get some trade deals, French recognition of Italian colonial claims (if the Italians can prove they can enforce them), and likely some sort of agreement, just short of an alliance, regarding defensive cooperation; whether that's against the Turks in the Mediterranean and North Africa, against the Hungarians along the Dalmatian coast, or against the Germans. Once Austria is absorbed into greater Germany Paris will have a much easier time playing off Germany as another incarnation of the Reich; with all that that implies for Italy.

 

[TheNordicBrit]

Um, what?

The Ems Dispatch very much so did cause the Franco-Prussian War, and anything else is historical white-washing, or ignorance of the situation. As has been discussed multiple times on these boards.

As well the idea that something five years down the line from the POD would happen the same way it did IOTL for the same reasons is absolutely absurd, and flies in the face of 'alternate' history.

While the dispatch was the even that did indeed cause the Franco-Prussian War, I think it'd have begun at some point, even without Bismark (maybe especially without Bismark).

Napoleon III is infamous for his constant blunders, prior to the F-P War there was the Luxembourg Crisis and of course the Spanish succession crisis which led to the Ems Dispatch. Napoleon III's obsession with expansion would inevitably bite him in the arse soon, it already had in Mexico where he abandoned the Emperor. In Europe he wanted to expand France eastwards, primarily Belgium/Wallonia and Luxembourg, he may not blunder in the exact year as OTL but... I reckon he will at some point. He reacted so poorly to the Ems Dispatch I reckon he'd react badly to another crisis.

 

[Eurofed]

Why does France lose so much to Italy, didn't think Italy had such large terretorial aspirations against france.

They do. Nice and Savoy have been just ceded by Italy to France in 1860 under diplomatic duress to reward France for its help against Austria and to get its assent to Piedmontese annexation of Central Italy. Nice was ethnically Italian and self-identified as such (it's the birthplace of Garibaldi). Savoy and Corsica have been owned by Italian states (Kingdom of Sardinia and Genoa, respectively) for centuries. Even if the Corsicans more or less self-identify as their own polity, ethnically Corsica is part of Italy. Tunisia hosts a fairly large group of Italian settlers.

This package forms the classical irredentist claims of Italy towards France, much like Alsace-Lorraine and Luxemburg are classical irredentist claims of Germany in Western Europe. If Germany is getting A-L in the peace deal, then Italy is getting Nice, Savoy, and Corsica. About Tunisia, it is still an indepedent Arab state in the 1860s-1870s. Defeated France just recognizes it in the Italian sphere of influence for future colonization purposes.

Maybe Pan slav nationalism and Austrias dire peril, makes Austrian Germans want to be part of a united Germany.

Simply put, if the Habsburg empire falls apart, Austrian Germans have no good reason to want stay apart from Germany, in the age of nationalism.

What about Czech nationalism, this is difficult, complicates the fate of Bohemia Moravia.

Prussia/Germany has certainly the means to "persuade" the Czechs they want to belong in Germany if Austria collapses, and before WWI Bohemia-Moravia was actually seen as a part of the German sphere by more or less anyone in Europe but the Czech themselves, due to its millennial ties with the HRE.

I dont like Germany/Prussia annexing Alsace -Lorraine, i'm with Bismarck, peace without annexations.

If the alliance with Italy is solid (it surely is after fighting two successful wars together), Bismarck has less reason to give an especially lenient peace to France.

 

[Eurofed]

Eurofed, what makes you believe that there will still be a Franco-Prussian War or its analogue ITTL? If the POD is Bismark being over-ruled by Wilhelm due to a weaker Austria, why would Bismark be in a position of power to create the Ems Dispatch five years later? It seems highly unlikely that ATL history would parallel ours so well after such a massive POD and immediate effects; the butterflies alone could and likely would remove even the potential for a Franco-Prussian conflict in the late 1860s/early 1870s.

Bismarck is a pragmatist. If events in 1866 force him to impose an harsher peace on Austria, he's going to comply and adapt his plans to that. He's certainly not going to fall from power because he's overruled on such a relatively minor issue. After all, he was overruled over Alsace-Lorraine nad his prestige was not harmed in any significant way. If Italy performs well in 1866 and remains an ally, Prussia/Germany needs a detente with a weaker Austria much less, so less reason for Otto to advocate a lenient peace.

As it concerns France, we have to look at the broader picture. Napoleon III's whole strategy in the 1860s was to favor a partial and limited victory of Prussia and Sardinia-Piedmont, and of German and Italian nationalism, that would destroy Austrian supremacy in Germany and Italy, replacing it with a system where France would be the dominant influence. But those forces have turned out to be much more successful than expected (ITTL even more so than IOTL) and are apparently evolving towards the creation of strong united Germany and Italy which would end French supremacy in Western Europe. ITTL, Prussia and Italy remain allied, which makes the strategic threat to French interests even worse.

Napoleon III cannot afford this to happen. In a few years, a series of diplomatic crises are going to arise (Luxemburg, Rome, the Spanish Succession) where Napoleon cannot afford to compromise, and due to the success of 1866, Prussia and Italy shall be less willing to compromise than OTL. The French support to the Pope makes a satisfying compromise between France and Italy impossible (and ITTL, the alliance with Prussia looks more advantageous to Italy anyway). Napoleon is such a (poor) statesman that he can be expected to blunder, overreact, and miscalculate in a crisis, he's overestimating French military power, and he has even more temptation than OTL to try and and solve this strategic gordian knot with war.

Which one of the potential flashpoints (Rome, Luxemburg, Spanish Succession) becomes the pretext for war is ultimately irrelevant, even if there may easily be no Ems Dispatch ITTL. Last but not least, if Prussia and Italy remain allied, the Savoia candidature to the throne of Spain is just as threatening to France as the Hohenzollern one, which makes the Spanish Succession crisis even more likely to end in a war, if it has not already happened over Rome and/or Luxemburg.