The PoD here is that gunpowder is never discovered by Chinese alchemists in the 9th century, but is discovered by alchemists either there or elsewhere at a later date. This presupposes that in OTL gunpowder was not independently discovered by the Arabs or Roger Bacon.
The Chinese development of various explosive and gunpowder weapons is thus never accomplished, with effects on siege and naval warfare. This technology will thus never be successfully co-opted by the Mongols for their conquests, though this might mean that other regions of Chinese military technology may be developed more than OTL (perhaps crossbow technology). Without gunpowder, however, the Song may be conquered by the Jin dynasty (or Jurchens, Khitans or whoever) instead as northern tribes encroach on China from the north.
With gunpowder not spreading with migrating Central Asians, warfare in Europe, the Middle East and India will not see the introduction of rockets, cannons or hand weapons. The centralizing effects of the expense of gunpowder warfare would never happen in Europe, perhaps enhancing the power of smaller states in Italy and Germany. Certain techniques, such as sapping, may become more sophisticated than in OTL, and non-gunpowder siege weapons would continue to develop.
The horse elite is going to continue to decline with against the English longbow and Swiss pike, but the decline will take much longer than in OTL. However, these weapons require high levels of training meaning the fielding of large forces will be very difficult and expensive. Plate armour will remain in wide use for a longer period. Warfare will be a less deadly affair than in OTL and involve smaller numbers.
What I am proposing is to get a basic idea what the politics, society and technology of a 1500 without gunpowder would be, and then have some lucky alchemist stumble across this saltpetre, suphur and charcoal combo...
The Chinese development of various explosive and gunpowder weapons is thus never accomplished, with effects on siege and naval warfare. This technology will thus never be successfully co-opted by the Mongols for their conquests, though this might mean that other regions of Chinese military technology may be developed more than OTL (perhaps crossbow technology). Without gunpowder, however, the Song may be conquered by the Jin dynasty (or Jurchens, Khitans or whoever) instead as northern tribes encroach on China from the north.
With gunpowder not spreading with migrating Central Asians, warfare in Europe, the Middle East and India will not see the introduction of rockets, cannons or hand weapons. The centralizing effects of the expense of gunpowder warfare would never happen in Europe, perhaps enhancing the power of smaller states in Italy and Germany. Certain techniques, such as sapping, may become more sophisticated than in OTL, and non-gunpowder siege weapons would continue to develop.
The horse elite is going to continue to decline with against the English longbow and Swiss pike, but the decline will take much longer than in OTL. However, these weapons require high levels of training meaning the fielding of large forces will be very difficult and expensive. Plate armour will remain in wide use for a longer period. Warfare will be a less deadly affair than in OTL and involve smaller numbers.
What I am proposing is to get a basic idea what the politics, society and technology of a 1500 without gunpowder would be, and then have some lucky alchemist stumble across this saltpetre, suphur and charcoal combo...