Turkish land was part of what the allies promised Italy for joining them in WWI, in writing in treaties (albeit secret ones), so their claim will remain reasonably strong, even if only as a way for Britain to shut them up.
Greece Wins Greco-Turkish War: Impact on World War Two?
- Thread starter GuildedAgeNostalgia
- Start date
Here is your answer:
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
Paris Gare de Lyon train station July 30th 1920 (old calendar)/August 12th (new calendar) Eleutherios Venizelos, prime minister of Greece was on his way to Marseilles. In Marseilles a Royal Hellenic Navy warship was waiting to bring back the prime minister in Greece. Venizelos was, not without...
www.alternatehistory.com
With Greece in this scenario welcoming surviving Greek and other Christian populations from Turkey as part of the population exchange, which other groups would likely be encouraged to move to a victorious Greece aside from White emigres (e.g. Pied-Noirs, Mutamassirun, etc)?
So an additional 2-3 decades would be out of the question based on his reckless lifestyle alone, with the most optimistic being his reign lasting until after a Greek victory in the Greco-Turkish War to allow the inchoate mess of Liberal/Royalist politics within Greece to resolve itself under relatively more stable circumstances?
So an additional 2-3 decades would be out of the question based on his reckless lifestyle alone, with the most optimistic being his reign lasting until after a Greek victory in the Greco-Turkish War to allow the inchoate mess of Liberal/Royalist politics within Greece to resolve itself under relatively more stable circumstances?
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Not necessarily . I chose for my reasons to have Alexander crash his car in the TL and his driving track record makes this plausible, he was a reckless driver with a mania for cars. That said if every reckless driver around actually died in a car crash, we wouldn't know what to do with the accidents. You could just as well posit he lives to eighty at which point he would be reigning till 1973 for 56 years and have half a dozen children.
Understand.
An auto enthusiast-inclined ruler presiding over a wanked and relatively stable Greece until 1973 does make for a fascinating TL.
Would there still be political chaos over the issue of succession from the 1970s (albeit delayed by 50+ years) and how would the country have progressed compared to OTL?
One possible scenario in my opinion:
Supposing the second (or especially the first) Battle for Inouo goes differently, or if King Alexander survives, then negotiations at the London Conference may give Greece the foundations she seeks. Northern Epirus/southern Albania will then almost certain go to Greece as planned per OTL until the Treaty of Sevres negated the deal. Greeks pushing into Albania with victory over Ataturk's state are also likely to react differently to the Bulgarian conflicts in 1923/1924 and may result in a full-on war there over Pirin (and if Yugoslavia intervenes, potentially Vardar?) Macedonia. Ataturk's Republic of Turkey, if not declared a rogue state internationally, will be seen as a minor player while Greece will push for full control of the Straits while the Ottoman government is likely 'given' the northern/central area of Anatolia as a rump state. Greece can then negotiate to take over for Italy in her areas of Anatolian occupation in exchange for a moe definitive 'understanding' in Albania. Rump Turkey might then go after Greater Armenia and become a heavily irredentist state, possibly falling to fascism in time for World War II.
Greece then has western and southern Anatolia, southern Albania, and possibly parts of Southwestern Bulgaria or Yugislav Macedonia under its control but will have difficulty holding them without the return of many of its diaspora or Greek population in other parts of the old Ottoman Empire. Cyprus will push for Enosis with aid from Athens (or Constantinople if/when they get the City of Men's Desires back). Bulgaria and Ata/Ottoman Turkey, possibly Russia and others as well, will see this as an area ripe for conquest. It may turn the Balkans into even more of a s***storm than the years before World War I and become a training/testing ground for 'Dutch' (German) weaponry leading up to this ATL's World War II. The map might look something like this but with about 1/3 of Albania, southern Macedonia, and part of Bulgaria also welded onto Greece.
(Map for scenario is from Reddit, specifically: )
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_Albania)
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Petrich)
Supposing the second (or especially the first) Battle for Inouo goes differently, or if King Alexander survives, then negotiations at the London Conference may give Greece the foundations she seeks. Northern Epirus/southern Albania will then almost certain go to Greece as planned per OTL until the Treaty of Sevres negated the deal. Greeks pushing into Albania with victory over Ataturk's state are also likely to react differently to the Bulgarian conflicts in 1923/1924 and may result in a full-on war there over Pirin (and if Yugoslavia intervenes, potentially Vardar?) Macedonia. Ataturk's Republic of Turkey, if not declared a rogue state internationally, will be seen as a minor player while Greece will push for full control of the Straits while the Ottoman government is likely 'given' the northern/central area of Anatolia as a rump state. Greece can then negotiate to take over for Italy in her areas of Anatolian occupation in exchange for a moe definitive 'understanding' in Albania. Rump Turkey might then go after Greater Armenia and become a heavily irredentist state, possibly falling to fascism in time for World War II.
Greece then has western and southern Anatolia, southern Albania, and possibly parts of Southwestern Bulgaria or Yugislav Macedonia under its control but will have difficulty holding them without the return of many of its diaspora or Greek population in other parts of the old Ottoman Empire. Cyprus will push for Enosis with aid from Athens (or Constantinople if/when they get the City of Men's Desires back). Bulgaria and Ata/Ottoman Turkey, possibly Russia and others as well, will see this as an area ripe for conquest. It may turn the Balkans into even more of a s***storm than the years before World War I and become a training/testing ground for 'Dutch' (German) weaponry leading up to this ATL's World War II. The map might look something like this but with about 1/3 of Albania, southern Macedonia, and part of Bulgaria also welded onto Greece.
(Map for scenario is from Reddit, specifically: )
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_Albania)
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Petrich)
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A Greece that wins in 1921 ends de facto wanked compared to the OTL one to a greater or lesser extend. How it has progressed by 1973... why Lost Monkeys is still in January 1924.
Regarding the monarchy with Alexander living to 80, by 1973 the rest of the royal family has been in exile for nearly 2 generations. Any children Paul had were born in exile. Almost certainly the succession has switched to any male children Alexander had in the meantime and Aspasia was just 24 in 1920 they are likely to have several.
Greece would almost certainly be allied with Yugoslavia and very much in the British/French orbit IMO. How does this affect Cypriot desire for enosis is an interesting question, the Cypriots will definitely want union with Greece, how Britain will be reacting TTL is a different question. And Constantinople even if it does become part of Greece is likely too exposed geographically to make into a capital.
I went with this as the outcome of the Greek-Turkish war
Probably would not have a lot of impact on World War II. The Balkans were generally a backwater to the fighting going on to the north. Mussolini would have tried to build his new Roman Empire and Hitler would have had to rescue him. I don't see this giving Churchill any real leverage with the Americans to invade.
If Turkey or anyone else in the region goes fascist as a result of the Greeks, Great Powers, Depression, etc. then fighting may break out here and regional history might change. Russia's oilfields might be vulnerable if the Germans are allowed to use bases in the area but I don't see much changing strategically beyond that.
What makes you think a Greek victory in a Greco-Turkish War is going to have effects that last until World War II?
I'm not convinced that the Greeks would be willing able or to take more than the Smyrna Zone in Anatolia if they won. The Greeks' advance inland was an attempt to impose the terms of the Treaty of Sevres upon the government in Ankara, not an additional land-grab. IIRC, Venizelos had already accepted the fact that Greece would not receive Constantinople because the city had been internationalised under the terms of the Treaty. He had also only agreed to occupy Smyrna on the understanding that Anatolia would be Balkanised by the Allied powers, knowing that the Smyrna Zone itself barely had a Greek majority (if at all).
So if Greece managed to impose the Treaty, perhaps with some combination of King Alexander's survival and Mustapha Kemal's death (although honestly I'm not convinced that even an occupation of Ankara would be sufficient to defeat the Turks) my expectation would be that the Greek Army would withdraw to the Smyrna Zone and Eastern Thrace (sans Constantinople) and fortify them, having received Turkish recognition of their sovereignty in those areas. Perhaps, if we wanted to create a scenario where the Greeks end up controlling Constantinople, Venizelos could order the troops into the City after an alternative version of the Chanak Crisis and a British withdrawal from the demilitarised zone. In that case the Greeks would control the European side of the Strait + Smyrna, whilst the Turks would control all of Anatolia except for Smyrna, plus whatever Allied occupation zones/Armenian/Kurdish states survive as a result of butterflies. Not sure how plausible that is though.
So if Greece managed to impose the Treaty, perhaps with some combination of King Alexander's survival and Mustapha Kemal's death (although honestly I'm not convinced that even an occupation of Ankara would be sufficient to defeat the Turks) my expectation would be that the Greek Army would withdraw to the Smyrna Zone and Eastern Thrace (sans Constantinople) and fortify them, having received Turkish recognition of their sovereignty in those areas. Perhaps, if we wanted to create a scenario where the Greeks end up controlling Constantinople, Venizelos could order the troops into the City after an alternative version of the Chanak Crisis and a British withdrawal from the demilitarised zone. In that case the Greeks would control the European side of the Strait + Smyrna, whilst the Turks would control all of Anatolia except for Smyrna, plus whatever Allied occupation zones/Armenian/Kurdish states survive as a result of butterflies. Not sure how plausible that is though.
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